O documento discute métodos para prever a conclusão de projetos usando métodos quantitativos como tempo de ciclo, trabalho em progresso e vazão. Ele também discute a importância de limitar o trabalho em progresso para estabilizar o sistema e permitir previsões precisas usando simulações de Monte Carlo.
23. Cookbook
pra começar na segunda
1. Defina seu sistema
2. Comece a medir tempo de ciclo (CT),
vazão (TH) e trabalho em progresso (WIP)
3. Limite o trabalho em progresso (WIP)
4. Simule o sistema com Monte Carlo
5. Repita os passos 2, 3 e 4
TODOS OS DIAS!
28. Referências
Vacanti, Daniel (2015) “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability: An Introduction”.
https://www.amazon.com/Actionable-Agile-Metrics-Predictability-Introduction/dp/098643633X
Magennis, Troy (2014) “The Economic Impact of Software Development Process Choice – Cycle-time Analysis and Monte Carlo
Simulation”. http://focusedobjective.com/paper-the-economic-impact-of-software-development-process-choice-cycle-time-analysis-and-
monte-carlo-simulation-results/
Leopold, Klaus (2017) “Practical Kanban: From Team Focus to Creating Value”.
https://www.amazon.com/Practical-Kanban-Focus-Creating-Value-ebook/dp/B077RZ2JNS
Hubbard, D. W. (2010). How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business. Wiley.
https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Workbook-Intangibles/dp/1118752368/ref=dp_rm_title_1
Anderson, D. J. (2010). Kanban: Successful Evolutionary Change for Your Technology Business. Sequim: Blue Hole Press.
http://www.djaa.com/kanban-successful-evolutionary-change-your-technology-business-0
Little’s Law
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little%27s_law
Central Limit Theorem
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem