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O impacto da revolução digital no sistema financeiro - Murilo Portugal

O impacto da revolução digital no sistema financeiro - Murilo Portugal

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Computação em Nuvem, Big Data, Blockchain, Inteligência Artificial, a disseminação de um conjunto de novas tecnologias vem mudando a estrutura e o modo de funcionamento do sistema financeiro no mundo e no Brasil. Surgem novas instituições (as fintechs), fronteiras setoriais se tornam permeáveis (empresas tradicionais de outros setores passam a prestar serviços financeiros) e os bancos são obrigados a mudar aceleradamente para não perder a liderança. Os impactos se estendem a todos os serviços financeiros, da concessão de crédito à execução de pagamentos, passando pelo segmento de seguros, entre outros.

Que novo balanço de riscos e oportunidades essas mudanças criam para a economia e a sociedade, para empresas, famílias e indivíduos?

MURILO PORTUGAL FILHO
Presidente da Federação Brasileira de Bancos (FEBRABAN) desde 2011, teve sólida carreira no setor público, como Secretário do Tesouro Nacional e Secretário Executivo do Ministério da Fazenda, entre outras funções, e em organismos internacionais, como Diretor Executivo do Banco Mundial, Diretor Executivo e Vice Diretor Geral do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI). É Mestre em Economia pela Universidade de Manchester (Reino Unido).

Computação em Nuvem, Big Data, Blockchain, Inteligência Artificial, a disseminação de um conjunto de novas tecnologias vem mudando a estrutura e o modo de funcionamento do sistema financeiro no mundo e no Brasil. Surgem novas instituições (as fintechs), fronteiras setoriais se tornam permeáveis (empresas tradicionais de outros setores passam a prestar serviços financeiros) e os bancos são obrigados a mudar aceleradamente para não perder a liderança. Os impactos se estendem a todos os serviços financeiros, da concessão de crédito à execução de pagamentos, passando pelo segmento de seguros, entre outros.

Que novo balanço de riscos e oportunidades essas mudanças criam para a economia e a sociedade, para empresas, famílias e indivíduos?

MURILO PORTUGAL FILHO
Presidente da Federação Brasileira de Bancos (FEBRABAN) desde 2011, teve sólida carreira no setor público, como Secretário do Tesouro Nacional e Secretário Executivo do Ministério da Fazenda, entre outras funções, e em organismos internacionais, como Diretor Executivo do Banco Mundial, Diretor Executivo e Vice Diretor Geral do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI). É Mestre em Economia pela Universidade de Manchester (Reino Unido).

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O impacto da revolução digital no sistema financeiro - Murilo Portugal

  1. 1. Impact of the Digital Revolution on the Financial System March 10, 2020 Murilo Portugal
  2. 2. The Digital Revolution main technologies Internet and Mobile Banking Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Bots Introduction of Chips and Tokens (physical and virtual) Cloud Computing and Internet of Things (IOT) Analytics, Big Data 2
  3. 3. ADVANCED ANALYTICS COGNITIVE COMPUTING BLOCKCHAIN EXPOSED SERVICES HYBRID CLOUD REAL TIME ANALYTICS ROBO-ADVISORS, VPA ROBOTIC PROCESS AUTOMATION SERVICE DESIGN BIOMETRICS IOT Data Mastery Intelligent Automation As a service User Experience DIGITAL TRUST + DIGITAL WORKFORCE Clients compare the banking experience with the experiences of other technology companies New technological models allow operations to be performed more efficiently and with less chance of errors As more features emerge and migrate to a bank perimeter, it is possible to communicate a common language with the ecosystem to become a value enabler More and more companies have adopted the specific contracting for the use of services in order to reduce costs and gain agility Key factors driving the digital revolution in the banking sector 3
  4. 4. The Brazilian consumer is already mostly digital, connected and seeks immediate gratification Participation of the Millennial and Postmillennial Generations in the Economically Active Population 53% 70 million people 79% 114 million people PEA: Economically active population; Fonte: PNAD - IBGE 2016 2030 DIGITAL 56% 76% IMMEDIATE GRATIFICATION abandon a purchase if they find themselves frustrated during the process CONECTED of Brazilians access the Internet Of these, 64% access by mobile devices And more than 75% of the population over 10 years have a cell phone 48% SOCIAL 99 million monthly active accounts 8 out of 10 Brazilians are connected on Facebook Source: Global Customer Survey 2015 - Accenture 52% FRAGMENTED CONSUMPTION seek the best deal for every financial product they want to buy 4
  5. 5. 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 5% 6% 7% 5% 5% 10% 8% 9% 7% 5% 15% 14% 15% 15% 16% 21% 18% 16% 14% 12% 37% 32% 24% 22% 20% 10% 20% 28% 35% 40% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Mobile banking Internet banking ATM – Automated Teller Machine POS – Points of Sales Banking Branches Banking correspondents Contact center Branches 2018: 4,0 bi 2017: 5,9 bi Contact Centers 2018: 1,4 bi 2017: 1,5 bi Correspondents 2018: 4,2 bi 2017: 4,0 bi ATM 2018: 9,2 bi 2017: 9,9 bi POS 2018: 12,6 bi 2017: 10,9 bi Share of Transactions/ Number of Transactions 48,8 bi 55,7 bi 65,4 bi 73,2 bi 78,9 bi Internet Banking 2018: 15,8 bi 2017: 16,1 bi Mobile banking 2018: 31,6 bi 2017: 25,6 bi Mobile banking is already twice as relevant as internet banking in bank transactions 5
  6. 6. Establishment of Serasa 6 Million daily consultations 1967 1995 Electronic Check Clearing BRL 821 Billions in cleared checks/month 1983 Launch of Self-Service Terminals  170 Thousand ATMs in operation in Brazil Establishment of the Interbank Payment Billet Payment of more than 3.8 Billion billets/year 1993 Use of Internet Banking in Brazil 16 Billion transactions/year 1996 1999 Beginning of Chip Cards in Brazil 18,8 Billion transactions/year 2001 Establishment of the Interbank Payments Chamber BRL 28,3 Trillions in transactions Brazilian banks have long been in the forefront of Information Technology and Automation 6
  7. 7. BIGTECHS FINANCIAL INDUSTRY • Intensive use of new technologies • Oriented to meet specific niches • Greater agility, accepts errors and encourages innovation • Vision based on Simplicity and Enchantment • Redefine the consumer experience • Acting on a global scale and at various times of consumer day • Integrated sales of financial products and other goods and services FINTECHS The synergy among fintechs, bigtechs and the financial industry is producing good results 7
  8. 8. • Itaú created a startup incubator called Cubo Coworking to approach startups and enable possible solutions / tools development • Several startups join segmented programs that offer integration between startups and other companies that may be interested in their projects, products and services • Banco do Brasil joined Bradesco to launch Digio, a platform • Announced the Advanced Laboratory (LABB) in Silicon Valley, used both for incubating internal innovation projects and identifying potential investment opportunities in startups • Bradesco launched Next, a digital bank that offers a range of banking services • Additionally, created the InovaBra Ventures, a fund of BRL 100 Million for investment startups accelerated by InovaBra, the bank's innovation platform • Santander purchased ContaSuper, renamed to SuperDigital, a fintech that offers 100% digital payments and receivables as well as transfers, withdrawals and access to prepaid cards • It also has a program called Radar, in partnership with Endeavor, which offers mentoring, networking and creates opportunities for entrepreneurs in the financial market • Caixa Econômica Federal created Youse, an innovative digital platform for the sale of vehicle, home and life insurance • Another initiative was the adoption of the Social Impact Business Challenge, with an NGO called Artemisia, a program that invests and contributes to financial inclusion in Brazil • The biggest technology business fair in Latin America • 40 Startups (35 Brazilians + 5 International) selected to the Fintech Lounge Fintechs create opportunities for partnerships with the banking sector 8
  9. 9. Payments Advice Crypto Currencies Insurance Credit Investment Acquiring Financial Aggregator Marketplace Debt negotiation Marketplace Distributor Cyber advisor Equity Crowdfunding New ecosystem Emission Aggregator Marketplace Direct credit PRODUCTSLIFETIMEPRODUCTS Fintechs operate in 6 distinct segments creating opportunities for relevant partnerships with the banking sector 9
  10. 10. The ICMB (International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies) survey asked financial institutions to select the financial products and services that are: 1. Most affected by technological developments at present; 2. Likely to be most affected by technological developments over the next five years; and 3. Seeing the greatest competition. Note: The longer the bar, the more important the product or service in the ranking. Source: Authors' qualitative survey of financial institutions. Banking Disrupted? Financial Intermediation in an Era of Transformational Technology Developed Countries: Possible impacts for the banking industry 10
  11. 11. Copyright © 2016 Accenture. Todos os direitos reservados. Material confidencial e de propriedade da Accenture. Seu logo e High Performance Delivered são marcas da Accenture. 11 Investments & InsurancePaymentsCredit Deposits and Current Account Regulation makes bank disintermediation difficult The increase of digital players points to strong pressure on tariffs Great growth of investment and market players Innovative players have not yet gained relevant traction LOW LOWHIGHMEDIUM Brazil: Possible impacts for the banking industry 11
  12. 12. Increasing the efficiency of the banking industry Contributing to the improvement of digital security Encouraging innovation, competition and level playing field Promoting digital culture among consumers and society HIGH DIGITAL PERFORMANCE FIRST DIGITAL CULTURE CYBER TRUST SUSTAINABLE INNOVATION BANKING SECTOR To promote the digital revolution in the banking sector, a digital agenda was built with 4 key guidelines 12
  13. 13. • FEBRABAN’s Framework o Cloud o Critical Infrastructure o Outsourcing • Use of cyber incident sharing platform - FS ISAC• Monitoring and Validation of new products and services from Cyber Security viewpoint • Creation of Sector Cyber Security Center o Personnel training o Integrated simulations o Prevention research Cyber Security 13
  14. 14. Occurs when two groups of enterprises operate in the same market, offering the same products or services, but one of them is subject to softer legal and regulatory requirements than the other “Competition that is based on free-riding or regulatory arbitrage usually produces temporary and illusory gains, but may be a source of problems in the medium term” Regulatory Arbitrage Free Riding Happens when someone benefits from something without expending effort or paying for it True Competition x Regulatory Arbitrage x Free Riding 14
  15. 15. Today in Brazil there is a fast payments system (TEDs and DOCs) that concludes transactions from 20 minutes to 2 days. Now, the Brazilian Central Bank and the banking industry are developing an instant payments system (PIX) Instant Payments 15
  16. 16. The Brazilian Central Bank is developing and will operate the “addressing base” and “settlement system” Connectivity Tests Public Consultation of PIX Regulation Mandatory Homologation Publication of the Regulation Go-Live February April June July November Implementation Milestones | 2020 PIX will enable to conclude transactions in 10 seconds Instant Payments 16
  17. 17. Open Banking: sharing of customer’s data if authorized by the client 17
  18. 18. Open Banking is being examined in several jurisdictions, and each one is establishing the model that will best fit to local complexity 18
  19. 19. Open Banking implementation in Brazil Brazilian Central Bank Communication 33.455, of April 24th, 2019 Public Consultation Notice 73 with deadline for comments and suggestions ended in January 2020 19
  20. 20. Open Banking: important attention points The responsibility of each Open Banking participant should be limited to its performance and activities (supplier and recipient of data, payment initiator or data holder account). Institutions participating in the Open Banking should be individually responsible for possible damage caused to customers and third parties within the limit of their performance. Legal Responsibility for shared data Reciprocity in data sharing Pricing and Costs The bigtechs have a significant amounts of qualitative data that can improve the performance and risk engines of the banking industry, but there is no access. With Open Banking, bigtechs will be able, if they meet the criteria, to obtain data from the banking industry. Should there be Open Social Media, Open Electronic Trade, etc.? There should be an apportionment and reimbursement of the implementation costs. Business models must be adjusted to work within the reality of free consultations x cost reimbursement. 20
  21. 21. Banks have evolved to solve problems which prevent or make it difficult for funds to flow from lenders to borrowers: Financial Industry Ecosystem 21  MAIN PROBLEMS • Asymmetric information  Adverse selection  Moral hazard • High contracting and monitoring costs • Duration mismatches between suppliers and demanders of credit • Risks of leveraging • Frequent banking crises  SOME SOLUTIONS • Creation of lender of last resort  bankers’ moral hazard • Tight prudential regulation, intense supervision of banks and ample resolution powers by Central Banks and financial regulators
  22. 22. Future Trends 22 • Will FinTechs and BigTechs replace banks? • Will technology solve the problems of asymmetry of information, high contracting and monitoring costs, the risks of maturity transformation and leverage to the point of allowing deposit taking, lending and leveraging to happen without a lender of last resort, prudential regulation and supervision, and without increasing frequent financial crises? Yes  Banks will become FinTechs No  FinTechs will become Banks YES AND NO  Bantechs will continue to evolve • Could it be that the news about the death of banking are greatly exaggerated?
  23. 23. Thank You!

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