Apresentação do ministro Henrique Meirelles no evento “Bradesco CEO Forum”, realizado em Nova York (EUA).

1. Henrique Meirelles
Finance Minister
Ministry of
Finance
November 2016
Brazil: On the Road to Recovery
New Policy Framework

2. 2
Ministry of
Finance
Economic StabilizaCon

3. 3
3
Ministry of
Finance
ConsCtuConal Amendment 241 (Expenditure Cap)
Source: Ministry of Finance
16,8%
16,2%
18,1%
16,7%
18,3%
19,6%
23,2%
19,8%
15,7%
15,0%
16,0%
17,0%
18,0%
19,0%
20,0%
21,0%
22,0%
23,0%
24,0%
Central Government Primary expenditure
(%GDP)
Occurred
ProjecFons - Recent Trend
ProjecFons - Expenditure Cap

4. 4
4
Ministry of
Finance
Pension and Social Security Reform
Source: Ministry of Finance
9,6%
7,6%
7,0%
7,2%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
ProjecFons - Current SituaFon
ProjecFons - Reform
Occurred

5. 5
5
Ministry of
Finance
Gross General Government Debt Will Return to a Sustainable Trajectory
The government debt is expected to peak in 2020.
Source: Ministry of Finance. Considering annual GDP real growth rate of 2.5% from 2018 on.
72,5
75,8
77,2 77,7
78,4 78,3
77,2
75,8
73,9
71,6
77,7
78,9 79,3
78,7
77,8
76,4
74,6
77,9
77,3
75,7
73,8
71,4
68,6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Gross General Debt
(% do GDP)
GGGD (PLOA2017)
GGGD (upper)
GGGD (lower)

6. 6
6
Ministry of
Finance
InflaCon is Returning to the Target
Source: Central Bank (Focus Survey 9/23/2016), IBGE
3,1
4,5
5,9
4,3
5,9
6,5
5,8 5,9
6,4
10,7
7,25
5,1
4,5 4,5
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
InflaCon Trajectory
(% per year)
InflaFon Target Performed Market ExpectaFons

7. 7
7
Ministry of
Finance
The Current Account Deficit is no Longer a Concern
The Current Account Deficit has adjusted and FDI inflows have been consistent.
Source: Central Bank
-23,7
-8,1
-30,6
-26,3
-75,8 -77,0 -74,2 -74,8
-104,2
-58,9
-15,9
-24,2
-29,0
23,2
16,6 10,1
18,1 15,5 19,4
44,6
50,7
31,5
88,5
101,2
86,6
69,2
96,9
75,1
65,0 65,0 65,0
Current Account and FDI EvoluCon
(USD billion)
Current Account FDI

8. 8
Ministry of
Finance
On a Recovery Path

9. 9
9
Ministry of
Finance
PosiCve Confidence Shock
New poliCcal and economic policy proposals made by this administraCon have
generated improved confidence, leading to economic recovery.
Asset prices
recovery
Confidence
recovery
Credit
recovery
ConsumpCon and
Investment
recovery
Labor market
recovery
PotenCal
Growth recovery

10. 10
10
Ministry of
Finance
Jan 2016 = 100
Source: Bloomberg and NaFonal Treasury Source: FGV
Asset Prices and Confidence
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
Confidence Indexes
(jan-16=100)
Industry
Consumer
Services
Trade
100
120
140
160
Stock Market and DomesCc Bonds
(jan16=100)
Stock exchange index
DomesFc Bonds (NTN-B 2035)*

11. 11
11
Ministry of
Finance
Credit CondiCons
Interest rates have fallen, to a great extent, in response to reducCon in risk
percepCon and to improvement in inflaCon expectaCons.
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
20-Jan
16,81
14-Nov
12,42
11,0
12,0
13,0
14,0
15,0
16,0
17,0
18,0
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Interest rate 5 years (%)
18-Jan
506
15-Nov
299
200,0
250,0
300,0
350,0
400,0
450,0
500,0
550,0
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
CDS 5 years (bps)

12. 12
12
Ministry of
Finance
ProjecCons
1.4
3.1
1.1
5.8
3.2
4.0
6.1
5.1
-0.1
7.5
3.9
1.9
3.0
0.1
-3.8
-3.0
1.6
2.5
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP
(YoY%)
Return to Growth
The economy is at a turning point.
PosiCve growth is expected by the end of 2016 and tends to accelerate in coming
years.
Source: IBGE and Ministry of Finance

13. 13
Ministry of
Finance
OpportuniCes Ahead

14. 14
14
Ministry of
Finance
Opportunity: DomesCc SecuriCes Markets
The share of non-residents in domesCc securiCes is sCll low.
Source: Selic, IMF working paper WP/14/39 (Serkan Arslanalp, Takahiri Tsuda)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Brazil South Africa Mexico Russia Turkey Turkey2
Non-Residents’ Share In DomesCc Government SecuriCes Markets (%)
Brazil

15. 15
15
Ministry of
Finance
Opportunity: Equity
Despite the recession, Brazil ranks 8th most important FDI desCnaCon and the first
in LaCn America.
With the return of growth, there is room for expansion.
Source: Unctad (World Investment Report 2016)
379,9
174,9
135,6
100,5
72,6 68,8 65,3 64,6 51,6 48,6 44,2 42,9 39,5 31,7 31,0 30,3 24,6 22,3 20,3
Top FDI DesCnaCons in 2015
(USD billion)

16. 16
Ministry of
Finance

17. 17
17
Ministry of
Finance
• Norte-Sul
• Ferrogrão
• FIOL
• BR-354/365/GO/MG
• BR-101/116/290/386/RS
• Porto Alegre
• Fortaleza
• Florianópolis
• Salvador
• Fuel Terminal – Santarém
• Wheat Terminal – Rio de
Janeiro
• São Simão
• Volta Grande
• Miranda
• Pery
• Agrotrafo
• Goiás
• Roraima
• Acre
• Alagoas
• Piauí
• Rondônia
• Miriri
• Palmeirópolis
• Candiota
• Bom Jardim
Opportunity: Infrastructure
The newly launched Investment Partnership Program (PPI) brings a pordolio of
projects under a new regulatory framework.
Source: Presidency of the Republic

18. 18
18
Ministry of
Finance
Opportunity: Oil and Gas Sector
The Oil and Gas sector presents opportuniCes in a business friendlier environment.
Source: Ministry of Finance

19. 19
Ministry of
Finance
Final Remarks

20. 20
20
Ministry of
Finance
Brazil: Ready to Grow
• The Government has been taking the necessary measures to consolidate
economic stability. As a result, the fundamentals of the economy have improved
significantly over the last months.
• The government is commieed to reducing the role of the State in the economy.
• Structural reforms will enhance producCvity and compeCCveness.
• Regulatory agencies will be strengthened as well as governance of state-owned
companies.
• The Government is commieed to promote a market friendlier environment.
• Brazil is paving the road to a new growth cycle and there are opportuniCes for
investment.

21. Finance Minister
Henrique Meirelles
21
Ministry of Finance