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Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
1. Return Over Influence
Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case
Web Analytics Association
São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho
2. Overview
• Social Networks on the Internet
• Digital Social Networks in Brazil
• The case for advertising
– Brands and Social Capital
• Old AND New Metrics
• Debate
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
10. South Korea
Russia
9.7m
Denmark
2.4m
0.3m
UK Poland
4.5m Netherlands
1.6m 1.1m
Germany
USA
CANADA
1.6m
France
5.2m
Czech
Romania
0.6m
0.5m
China Japan
Hungary
Switzerland
14m
26.4m 4m 0.5m Austria 0.1m
0.4m Greece
0.3mTurkey 43m
Italy 2m Pakistan
Spain 3.4m
0.97m Taiwan
4.5m 4.2m
MEXICO
4.1m
Philippines % Write their own
India Hong
Kong
2.4m
blog
1m
8.7m 60%+
BRAZIL 40% -60%
Australia
7.6m 1m
30%-40%
<30%
Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
11. South Korea
Russia 9.4m
6.1m
Netherlands
3.7m Poland
UK Denmark
0.6m
2.7m
11m
CANADA
Germany Romania
Czech
1.4m
0.8m
China Japan
8.2m
12.4m
USA 4.2m France
4.2m Switzerland
Hungary
1m
Turkey 39m
43m 0.9m Austria
0.6m
3.3m
Greece
Italy Pakistan
Spain 0.5m
1.8m
3.9m Taiwan
4.7m
3.9m
India
MEXICO
5.1m 11.7m Hong Kong
1m Philippines
3m
% joined a BRAZIL
social network 11.4m
70%+
Australia
2.6m
60% -69%
50%-59%
<49%
Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
12. Digital Social Networks in Brazil
Revista Época, 10/3/2008
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
13. Brazil is the leading country in
time spent on the internet
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
17. Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in
Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US
11,8 8,0
3,6
3,5
3,7 3,5
1,7
Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte
18. Q - What does it mean for advertising?
A – First, that a costumer can generate in a
week more GRPs than you can buy in a year…
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
28. The death of the “opinion leader” or the
birth of the “opinion climate”?
Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University
29.
30. The real value generated by brands
and the consumer > facts
Consumers recognize (and search
for) the trophies related to their
values and brands (media, websites,
social networks, etc)
And happily “socialcast” these
values to their own networks
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
33. A new type of market for Brands:
Social Capital and Social Currency
The trade for Facts
Trust Benefits
Emotional
Satisfaction
Communication Social 1.
2.
Altruistic
Competitive Social
Capital Currency
Operational
Financial
Expertise (reduction of
Transaction costs)
Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000
36. Yes, but with care
Quantitative Metrics - IAB
• Exposition (Broadcast)
• Visitors / Unique Visitors
• Visits
• Time Spent
• Interactions (Socialcast)
• Uploads / Downloads
• Messages
• Comments / Answers / Votes
• Friends
• Incoming Links
• Members
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
37. Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in
beta…(ESPM)
• Relevancy
– Number of relevant posts / number of total posts
• Dialogue extension and depth
– First comment / Last comment (recency)
• Favorability
– (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total
posts
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
38. What is an opinion to a machine?
It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things:
Oj = The thing in question (i.e product)
f jk = a feature of Oj
SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion
holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl
These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine
Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008
44. Return Over Influence
Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case
Web Analytics Association
São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho