Pesquisa da XP mapeia presidenciáveis e pré-candidatos ao governo de São Paulo.

1. XPPoll–SÃOPAULOSTATE
PRESIDENTIALRUN
July, 2018

2. 2
Political Analysis
Month & Week Data Colection TSE Register#
July Wk4 Jul-26 to Jul-28 SP-07091/2018
July Wk4 Jul-26 to Jul-28 BR-01505/2018
XP SÃO PAULO STATE POLLS
XP Poll - Details
Conducted by:
Instituto de pesquisas sociais,
políticas e econômicas (Ipespe)
Sample:
1000 interviews/each week
Coverage:
State of São Paulo
Method:
Phone call interviews
Margin of Error:
1000 interviews: 3.2. p.p. All files from previous polls and scenarios
breakdowns are available here.

3. 3
Political Analysis
GENDER TYPE OF CITY
MALE 47% CAPITAL TOWNS 28%
FEMALE 53% OUTLYING TOWNS 20%
AGE COUNTRY TOWNS 53%
16 & 17 YO 2% CITY SIZE
18 TO 34 YO 32% < 50.000 HAB 17%
35 TO 54 YO 36% 50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 30%
+55 YO 31% 200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 21%
INCOME (MW = USD260) > 500.000 HAB 33%
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 14% RELIGION
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 23% CATHOLIC 55%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 45% EVANGELICAL 24%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 15% HAS NO RELIGION 9%
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 3% SPIRITTUALISM 5%
AFRICAN-BRAZILIAN 1%
EDUCATION LEVEL DIDN'T ANSWER 1%
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 9% OTHER 5%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 19% OCUPATION
HIGH SCHOOL 43% WORKING 55%
HIGHER EDUCATION 29% NOT WORKING 45%
VOTER PROFILE (% OF TOTAL)
Voter profile: current week distribution
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

4. 4
Political AnalysisHighlights
The 1st XP Poll conducted in the State of São Paulo for the Presidential run showed that
Geraldo Alckmin and Jair Bolsonaro shared the lead in scenarios in which Lula wasn’t a PT
candidate. With Lula present, the three candidates share the lead. Bolsonaro and Lula scored
20% and Alckmin while obtained 19%.
In the scenario with Haddad as the PT candidate, Bolsonaro has 21% and Alckmin has 20%
and, while Marina has 10%, Ciro 8% and Haddad 5%. When the voter’s informed of Lula’s
support, Haddad jumps from 5% to 10%.
In the second-round scenarios, Alckmin beats Haddad with 50% against 19% and Bolsonaro
with 43% versus 28%. In a scenario without the PSDB candidate, Bolsonaro beats Haddad
with 36% against 27%.
By observing the microdata, Alckmin is able to convert 43% of those who evaluated his
government as great/good. He also acquired 61% of Bolsonaro’s votes in the runoff against
Haddad and 58% of Haddad’s votes in the runoff against Bolsonaro.
The poll also shows that 31% of those that choose Dória for the State also choose Alckmin for
the Presidency. The ‘BolsoDória’ vote was only 21% of those who indicated a vote for Dória.

5. 5
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate &
Microdata Analysis
XP Poll

6. 6
Political Analysis1st Round – Haddad as PT Candidate
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

7. 7
Political Analysis1st Round – Lula as PT Candidate
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

8. 8
Political Analysis1st Round – Haddad as PT Candidate
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

9. 9
Political Analysis2nd Round – Scenario 1
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

10. 10
Political Analysis2nd Round – Scenario 2
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

11. 11
Political Analysis2nd Round – Scenario 3
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

12. 12
Political AnalysisVoter conviction
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

13. 13
Political AnalysisRejection
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

14. 14
Political AnalysisUnfamiliarity
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

15. 15
Political Analysis
Would Surely
Vote
Could
Vote
Wouldn't
Vote
Dont't Know
Enough
Don'tKnow/
Didn'tAnswer
Total
LULA 20% 10% 69% 1% 1% 100%
ALCKMIN 20% 29% 50% 1% 0% 100%
BOLSONARO 20% 13% 54% 12% 1% 100%
MARINA 9% 24% 61% 5% 1% 100%
CIRO 7% 17% 63% 12% 0% 100%
HADDAD 7% 16% 64% 13% 2% 100%
A. DIAS 4% 12% 47% 37% 0% 100%
I'D LIKE YOU TO SAY IF YOU'D SURELY VOTE FOR HIM, COULD VOTE FOR HIM,
WOULDN'T VOTE IN ANY SCENARIOS OR IF YOU DON'T KNOW HIM ENOUGH TO SAY.
Conviction, recognition and rejection.
July
Week 4
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .

16. 16
Political Analysis
1. Electoral Scenarios
2. Assessing the electorate &
Microdata Analysis
XP Poll

17. 17
Political AnalysisAlckmin: Approval Rate x Vote Intention
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
GREAT/GOOD REGULAR BAD/ VERY BAD DK/DA
GERALDO ALCKMIN 43% 12% 1% 2%
JAIR BOLSONARO 17% 24% 18% 20%
MARINA SILVA 10% 12% 8% 14%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 8% 19% 39% 39%
CIRO GOMES 6% 8% 10% 7%
ÁLVARO DIAS 5% 3% 2% 2%
FERNANDO HADDAD, 5% 12% 15% 7%
DON'T KNOW 4% 6% 1% 2%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 1% 2% 0% 2%
GUILHERME BOULOS 1% 0% 0% 0%
MANUELA D'ÁVILA 0% 2% 5% 5%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0% 0% 0%
Total > 100% 100% 100% 100%
% of Votes in Alckmin's Approval rating - Scenario of Haddad Supp.

18. 18
Political Analysis
JAIR BOLSONARO (20%)
GERALDO ALCKMIN 61%
FERNANDO HADDAD 9%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 29%
DON'T KNOW/DIDN'T ANSWER 2%
GERALDO ALCKMIN (20%)
FERNANDO HADDAD 32%
JAIR BOLSONARO 27%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 37%
DON'T KNOW/DIDN'T ANSWER 5%
FERNANDO HADDAD (10%)
GERALDO ALCKMIN 58%
JAIR BOLSONARO 7%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 35%
DON'T KNOW/DIDN'T ANSWER 0%
Vote Migration From 1st Round to 2nd round
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
Geraldo Alckmin grabs 61% of
Bolsonaro’s 1st round voters when he
runs against Haddad. The PSDB
candidate also grabs 58% of Haddad’s
voters when running against Bolsonaro
If Geraldo Alckmin doesn’t make to the
second round, his voter would split. 37%
said they’d vote note/blank/null, 32%
would vote for Haddad and 27% for
Bolsonaro.
Who ‘orphans’ voters choose in the 2nd round?

19. 19
Political Analysis
In % of Total in pp
GERALDO ALCKMIN 31% 7%
JAIR BOLSONARO 23% 5%
NONE/BLANK/NULL 12% 3%
MARINA SILVA 9% 2%
CIRO GOMES 8% 2%
ÁLVARO DIAS 6% 1%
FERNANDO HADDAD, 4% 1%
HENRIQUE MEIRELLES 3% 1%
DON'T KNOW 3% 1%
MANUELA D'ÁVILA 1% 0%
DIDN'T ANSWER 0% 0%
GUILHERME BOULOS 0% 0%
Total 100% 22%
Doria's votes x Presidential 1st Round
BolsoDória vote?
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
João Dória (PSDB) has 22% of voting
intention in the dispute for governor.
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) is the candidate
that holds most of Doria’s voters in the
presidential run, 31% or 7 p.p.
Jair Bolsonaro is the second, with 23% of
the former mayor’s votes, or 5 p.p.

20. 20
Political AnalysisBreakdown
Source: XP Investimentos – São Paulo State Polls [TSE register # available on slide 2] .
NONE/BLANK/NUL
L
GERALDO
ALCKMIN
JAIR
BOLSONARO
MARINA
SILVA
FERNANDO HADDAD,
SUPPORTED BY LULA
CIRO
GOMES
DON'T
KNOW
ÁLVARO
DIAS
MANUELA
D'ÁVILA
HENRIQUE
MEIRELLES
GUILHERM
E BOULOS
DIDN'T
ANSWER
TYPE OF CITY
CAPITAL 24% 16% 13% 12% 15% 9% 4% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0%
PERIPHERY 17% 19% 20% 12% 12% 11% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0%
INTERIOR 20% 23% 23% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0%
CITY SIZE
< 50.000 HAB 12% 23% 26% 6% 11% 8% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 1%
50.001 TO 200.000 HAB 23% 21% 25% 9% 5% 6% 3% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0%
200.001 TO 500.000 HAB 20% 23% 17% 11% 9% 8% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0% 0%
> 500.000 HAB 23% 16% 14% 12% 15% 8% 5% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0%
GENDER
MALE 17% 18% 28% 8% 10% 7% 3% 5% 1% 1% 0% 0%
FEMALE 23% 22% 13% 12% 10% 8% 5% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0%
AGE
16 & 17 YO 11% 6% 22% 17% 17% 6% 6% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0%
18 TO 34 YO 20% 16% 25% 12% 13% 5% 3% 1% 3% 1% 0% 0%
35 TO 54 YO 26% 20% 20% 11% 9% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
+55 YO 15% 26% 14% 8% 8% 12% 5% 8% 1% 2% 1% 0%
EDUCATION LEVEL
ELEMENTARY SCHOOL 15% 30% 13% 9% 11% 14% 4% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0%
MIDDLE SCHOOL 16% 24% 20% 11% 10% 11% 2% 2% 3% 0% 1% 1%
HIGH SCHOOL 22% 16% 21% 10% 13% 6% 6% 3% 3% 1% 0% 0%
HIGHER EDUCATION 24% 21% 20% 10% 6% 6% 3% 7% 1% 2% 0% 0%
OCUPATION
EMPLOYED 23% 18% 23% 8% 10% 7% 4% 4% 2% 1% 0% 0%
UNEMPLOYED/OUT OF LABOR FORCE 18% 22% 17% 13% 10% 9% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0%
RELIGION
CATHOLIC 19% 25% 18% 9% 9% 8% 4% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0%
EVANGELICAL 22% 17% 25% 13% 8% 8% 4% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0%
HAVE NO RELIGION 17% 13% 17% 6% 23% 6% 4% 3% 8% 2% 0% 0%
SPIRITTUALISM 25% 12% 27% 4% 6% 4% 6% 12% 4% 0% 0% 0%
OHER/NONE/DIDNT ASWER 27% 10% 15% 19% 13% 6% 4% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0%
INCOME
E CLASS (< 1 MW) 18% 24% 14% 11% 16% 8% 4% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
D CLASS (1 TO 2 MW) 21% 21% 19% 11% 10% 8% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
C CLASS (2 TO 5 MW) 24% 18% 21% 10% 8% 8% 4% 3% 3% 1% 1% 0%
B CLASS (5 TO 20 MW) 13% 21% 24% 10% 11% 6% 2% 9% 2% 1% 0% 1%
A CLASS (> 20 MW) 21% 21% 21% 3% 6% 9% 3% 9% 0% 3% 3% 0%
Scenario - Profile Breakdownn

21. 21
Political AnalysisDisclaimer
This material was prepared by XP Investimentos (“XPI”).
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severally) to you or any other person as a result of your access, reception, or use of the information contained in this
communication.
All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of transmission and these, plus any
other information contained herein, are subject to change without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that
any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances
or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation.
This report is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a
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confidential, may contain proprietary or privileged information and is intended for the named recipient(s) only.
In addition, according to CVM Deliberation No. 443/2002, XPI warns that the use of the information of possible electoral results
presented in this poll, to operate in the Brazilian stock markets before public disclosure, may characterize unfair practice, in
violation of the CVM instruction No. 8/1979.
Las but not least, XPI and its affiliates don’t have any connection nor preference with any candidate or political party presented in
this poll and limits itself to only present analysis on the data collected independently by the “Instituto de Pesquisas Sociais,
políticas e econômicas (IPESPE)” which is properly registered under the Brazilian regulation.

22. © GrupoXP
July 2018