LARRY DIAMOND Membro-sênior na Hoover Institution e no Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, na Universidade Stanford, onde leciona Ciência Política e Sociologia. Dirigiu por mais de seis anos o Centro sobre Democracia, Desenvolvimento e Estado de Direito (CDDRL), na mesma universidade. É coeditor e fundador do mundialmente respeitado Journal of Democracy. Pesquisa tendências e condições democráticas ao redor do mundo e políticas e reformas para defender e promover a democracia. Editou ou co-editou mais de 40 livros sobre o desenvolvimento democrático no planeta, sendo o mais recente "Ill winds: saving democracy from Russian rage, Chinese ambition, and American complacency" (Penguin Books, 2020).

1. The Global Democratic
Recession
and How to Fight It
Larry Diamond
Updated August 2020

2. The Global Expansion of Democracy, 1974-2019
Percent of Countries with Population > 1 Million
24%
29%
32%
37%
43%
47%
53% 52%
55%
57%
55%
54% 52%
51%
48%
20%
23%21%
23%
25%
23%
26%
21%
26%
28%
31%
34%
33% 32%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy

3. Ratio of Gains to Declines in Freedom, 1974-2019
2.6
1.3
0.4
1.0
2.6
2.4
1.4
3.1
1.4 1.4
0.9
2.6
1.9
2.4
2.7
1.0
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
0.5
0.6 0.5 0.5
0.7
0.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5

4. Rate of Democratic Breakdown, 1976-2019
Breakdown as % of democracies
13.7%
10.7% 10.7%
18.9%
35.4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1976-86 1987-97 1998-08 2009-19 1976-2019

5. U.S. versus Less Developed Democracies
77 76
77 78
78
75 75
92
91
88 88
72
70
70
83
84
82
81
78 76
80
73
69
66
65 65
62
63
62
72
61
57
62
63
65
62
61 59
88
86
84
82
79
78 78 79
93
94 94
93
92
90
86
86
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Freedom House Selected Country Aggregate Scores, 2005-2019
Brazil Hungary Israel Mexico Philippines South Africa United States

6. Causes of Democratic Crisis & Decay
 Poor democratic performance: corruption, crime,
insecurity, economic stagnation and inequality.
 Accelerating globalization: fear of losing sovereignty
and control; cultural and religious pluralism
 Social media polarization, fragmented media sphere
 Diffusion of authoritarian leadership models
 Weakening of US, ebbing of democracy promotion
 fewer constraints on autocrats
 More powerful and aggressive Russia and China

7. Key elements of Illiberal Populism
1. Anti-elitist
2. Anti-institutionalist (acute distrust of institutions)
3. Anti-pluralist (delegitimize difference, disagreement)
4. Illiberal—intolerant of religious, ethnic, & other
minorities
5. Hegemonic: claims to be the only legitimate
representative of the “true” people
6. Plebiscitary—direct over representative democracy
7. Nationalist—anti-globalization

8. The Autocrats’ 12-step Program
1. Demonize and delegitimize political opposition
2. Undermine the independence of the courts.
3. Undermine the independence of the media
4. Gain control of public broadcasting
5. Constrain Internet freedom
6. Subdue civil society: NGOs, universities, think tanks
7. Intimidate the business community into submission
8. Enrich a class of loyal crony capitalists
9. Extend political control over state bureaucracy & security
10. Rig electoral rules
11. Gain control over electoral administration
12. Repeat steps 1 to 11, ever more vigorously

9. New Threats to Freedom in Pandemic
 Suspend parliament & elections, rule by decree (Hungary)
 Suspending freedom of movement & assembly
 Failure to ensure safe conditions for voting (Poland, May 10)
 Ban the printing of newspapers (Jordan)
 More arrests of opponents and critics (Egypt, Azerbaijan)
 Prosecution of critical journalists and intellectuals (India)
 Heightened news censorship (Cambodia, Thailand)
 5- year prison terms for conveying “false information”
(Hungary)
 Invasive state digital surveillance (Singapore, S Korea, Israel)
 Remove term limits on the president (Russia)
 Mobilize prejudice against minorities (Uganda)
 Global disinformation to discredit democracies (China, Russia)

10. Fighting Authoritarian Populism
 TRANSCEND, do not reinforce, the populist instinct to polarize
 Create a “big tent” that speaks to and welcomes in previous
supporters of the authoritarian populist
 Lead with “bread and butter issues” of people’s needs and
the populist government’s failure
 Expose the corruption of the populist leader & government,
the fraud in its claim to represent “the people”
 Identify reforms to improve democracy, but do not make
those the centerpiece of the campaign
 Embrace “civic nationalism” in which democracy and personal
freedom are an integral part of what makes the nation great
 Mobilize crosscutting civil society alliances

11. Fighting COVID-10 Democratically
1. Early warning and rapid response (public health, education)
2. Early steps to identify, isolate those infected; trace contacts;
screen & if necessary, quarantine travelers
3. Early and widespread testing for the virus, rapid results
4. Use of big data analytics to track the infection
5. Strong public health systems
6. Central government coordination for policy and med supplies
7. Transparent and consistent government communication
8. Led by public health experts who speak with authority
9. Trust in government and in scientific expertise
10. Widespread availability & use of facemasks and hand
sanitizer
11. Affordable, widely accessible healthcare.
12. Renewed social solidarity and shared community commitmen