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O desafio de revitalizar a democracia enquanto ainda é tempo, com Larry Diamond, um dos maiores estudiosos e defensores da democracia no mundo

O desafio de revitalizar a democracia enquanto ainda é tempo, com Larry Diamond, um dos maiores estudiosos e defensores da democracia no mundo

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LARRY DIAMOND
Membro-sênior na Hoover Institution e no Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, na Universidade Stanford, onde leciona Ciência Política e Sociologia. Dirigiu por mais de seis anos o Centro sobre Democracia, Desenvolvimento e Estado de Direito (CDDRL), na mesma universidade. É coeditor e fundador do mundialmente respeitado Journal of Democracy. Pesquisa tendências e condições democráticas ao redor do mundo e políticas e reformas para defender e promover a democracia. Editou ou co-editou mais de 40 livros sobre o desenvolvimento democrático no planeta, sendo o mais recente "Ill winds: saving democracy from Russian rage, Chinese ambition, and American complacency" (Penguin Books, 2020).

LARRY DIAMOND
Membro-sênior na Hoover Institution e no Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, na Universidade Stanford, onde leciona Ciência Política e Sociologia. Dirigiu por mais de seis anos o Centro sobre Democracia, Desenvolvimento e Estado de Direito (CDDRL), na mesma universidade. É coeditor e fundador do mundialmente respeitado Journal of Democracy. Pesquisa tendências e condições democráticas ao redor do mundo e políticas e reformas para defender e promover a democracia. Editou ou co-editou mais de 40 livros sobre o desenvolvimento democrático no planeta, sendo o mais recente "Ill winds: saving democracy from Russian rage, Chinese ambition, and American complacency" (Penguin Books, 2020).

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O desafio de revitalizar a democracia enquanto ainda é tempo, com Larry Diamond, um dos maiores estudiosos e defensores da democracia no mundo

  1. 1. The Global Democratic Recession and How to Fight It Larry Diamond Updated August 2020
  2. 2. The Global Expansion of Democracy, 1974-2019 Percent of Countries with Population > 1 Million 24% 29% 32% 37% 43% 47% 53% 52% 55% 57% 55% 54% 52% 51% 48% 20% 23%21% 23% 25% 23% 26% 21% 26% 28% 31% 34% 33% 32% 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Electoral Democracy Liberal Democracy
  3. 3. Ratio of Gains to Declines in Freedom, 1974-2019 2.6 1.3 0.4 1.0 2.6 2.4 1.4 3.1 1.4 1.4 0.9 2.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5
  4. 4. Rate of Democratic Breakdown, 1976-2019 Breakdown as % of democracies 13.7% 10.7% 10.7% 18.9% 35.4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 1976-86 1987-97 1998-08 2009-19 1976-2019
  5. 5. U.S. versus Less Developed Democracies 77 76 77 78 78 75 75 92 91 88 88 72 70 70 83 84 82 81 78 76 80 73 69 66 65 65 62 63 62 72 61 57 62 63 65 62 61 59 88 86 84 82 79 78 78 79 93 94 94 93 92 90 86 86 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Freedom House Selected Country Aggregate Scores, 2005-2019 Brazil Hungary Israel Mexico Philippines South Africa United States
  6. 6. Causes of Democratic Crisis & Decay  Poor democratic performance: corruption, crime, insecurity, economic stagnation and inequality.  Accelerating globalization: fear of losing sovereignty and control; cultural and religious pluralism  Social media polarization, fragmented media sphere  Diffusion of authoritarian leadership models  Weakening of US, ebbing of democracy promotion  fewer constraints on autocrats  More powerful and aggressive Russia and China
  7. 7. Key elements of Illiberal Populism 1. Anti-elitist 2. Anti-institutionalist (acute distrust of institutions) 3. Anti-pluralist (delegitimize difference, disagreement) 4. Illiberal—intolerant of religious, ethnic, & other minorities 5. Hegemonic: claims to be the only legitimate representative of the “true” people 6. Plebiscitary—direct over representative democracy 7. Nationalist—anti-globalization
  8. 8. The Autocrats’ 12-step Program 1. Demonize and delegitimize political opposition 2. Undermine the independence of the courts. 3. Undermine the independence of the media 4. Gain control of public broadcasting 5. Constrain Internet freedom 6. Subdue civil society: NGOs, universities, think tanks 7. Intimidate the business community into submission 8. Enrich a class of loyal crony capitalists 9. Extend political control over state bureaucracy & security 10. Rig electoral rules 11. Gain control over electoral administration 12. Repeat steps 1 to 11, ever more vigorously
  9. 9. New Threats to Freedom in Pandemic  Suspend parliament & elections, rule by decree (Hungary)  Suspending freedom of movement & assembly  Failure to ensure safe conditions for voting (Poland, May 10)  Ban the printing of newspapers (Jordan)  More arrests of opponents and critics (Egypt, Azerbaijan)  Prosecution of critical journalists and intellectuals (India)  Heightened news censorship (Cambodia, Thailand)  5- year prison terms for conveying “false information” (Hungary)  Invasive state digital surveillance (Singapore, S Korea, Israel)  Remove term limits on the president (Russia)  Mobilize prejudice against minorities (Uganda)  Global disinformation to discredit democracies (China, Russia)
  10. 10. Fighting Authoritarian Populism  TRANSCEND, do not reinforce, the populist instinct to polarize  Create a “big tent” that speaks to and welcomes in previous supporters of the authoritarian populist  Lead with “bread and butter issues” of people’s needs and the populist government’s failure  Expose the corruption of the populist leader & government, the fraud in its claim to represent “the people”  Identify reforms to improve democracy, but do not make those the centerpiece of the campaign  Embrace “civic nationalism” in which democracy and personal freedom are an integral part of what makes the nation great  Mobilize crosscutting civil society alliances
  11. 11. Fighting COVID-10 Democratically 1. Early warning and rapid response (public health, education) 2. Early steps to identify, isolate those infected; trace contacts; screen & if necessary, quarantine travelers 3. Early and widespread testing for the virus, rapid results 4. Use of big data analytics to track the infection 5. Strong public health systems 6. Central government coordination for policy and med supplies 7. Transparent and consistent government communication 8. Led by public health experts who speak with authority 9. Trust in government and in scientific expertise 10. Widespread availability & use of facemasks and hand sanitizer 11. Affordable, widely accessible healthcare. 12. Renewed social solidarity and shared community commitmen

Notas do Editor

  • Methodology: Take the total number of democratic breakdowns in each period, and divide by the total number of democracies in each period
  • India—arrest of Siddharth Varadarajan

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