10 pontos de atenção para 2023, indicados pela SocialData. Trabalho realizado através do monitoramento antecipativo e da análise de cenários futuros, com a participação de um seleto grupo de pensadores (Think Tank) reconhecidos por pensarem além do óbvio.
Durante 30 dias, a equipe residente do hub rastreou o universo de publicações indicativas de tendências, explorou sites especializados e de notícias, conversou com especialistas, acompanhou grupos de discussão, podcasts e videocasts, realizou sondagens, utilizou ferramentas de escuta social** e seguiu as pistas oferecidas pelos pensadores para coletar sinais e evidências relevantes.
Os pensadores foram convidados a olhar para o mundo a partir dos marcos de observação da metodologia FCS*** e avaliar as hipóteses fundamentadas pelos sinais coletados, considerando aspectos como motivações, recursos, valores, contexto, desconstrução, liderança, riscos e oportunidades.
O resultado desse intenso e extenso trabalho é um conjunto de 10 pontos de atenção (TIPs – Thinker’s Insight Points) que representa os temas, questões, movimentos, percepções, necessidades ou preocupações mais prementes para o ano.
Teresa Torres - An introduction to modern product discovery - Productized16Productized
The world of product management is changing quickly. In the past five years alone, we’ve seen the rise of The Lean Startup, design thinking, the Jobs-to-be-done framework, design sprints, OKRs, and much more. It can be hard for product teams to keep up. In this talk, you’ll learn a simple framework for how to make sense of all of these trends. You’ll learn how to mix and match methods in a way that leads to a coherent strategy that leads to better products.
Teresa is a product coach helping teams adopt user-centered, hypothesis-driven product development practices, and is the creator of Product Talk. She works with companies of all sizes on integrating user research, experimentation, and the right analytics into the product development process resulting in better product decisions.
3 Growth Hacks: The Secrets to Driving Massive User Growth | Josh Elman, Grey...Dealmaker Media
Josh Elman, Partner, Greylock
Hear how the former product guy from Linkedin and Twitter grew their users from 10s of thousands to over 200 million users. He'll share his framework for measuring growth.
Businesses typically view UX design as a tactical activity. More and more, however, companies are turning to UX as a source of strategic growth. As they do so, creating a design strategy and aligning it with business goals becomes essential. For many UX designers this represents a new challenge requiring an expanded skill set.
This workshop provides a solid background for understanding, building and communicating an effective UX Strategy. Through many examples, hands-on activities, and references to relevant literature, you’ll learn about this emerging field that is critical to the future of UX.
In particular, we’ll be working with a tool I created based on combination of research and practical experience called the UX Strategy Blueprint.
This course is suited for information architects, interaction designers, visual designers, content strategists, and UX designers seeking to better understand strategy, as well as product managers and developers interested in UX strategy. It is geared towards practicioners with an intermediate to advance level of understanding of UX design, in general.
How to Break Into Product Management by Uber Product ManagerProduct School
Darrell focused on how he broke into product. He walked through his career and some of the lessons that he learned on the road to becoming a Product Manager at Uber.
Mastering the Problem Space to Achieve Product-Market Fit by Dan Olsen at Min...Dan Olsen
Dan Olsen gave this talk "Mastering the Problem Space to Achieve Product-Market Fit" at Mind the Product San Francisco on July 17, 2018. The talk includes advice from Dan's product management book The Lean Product Playbook.
Teresa Torres - An introduction to modern product discovery - Productized16Productized
The world of product management is changing quickly. In the past five years alone, we’ve seen the rise of The Lean Startup, design thinking, the Jobs-to-be-done framework, design sprints, OKRs, and much more. It can be hard for product teams to keep up. In this talk, you’ll learn a simple framework for how to make sense of all of these trends. You’ll learn how to mix and match methods in a way that leads to a coherent strategy that leads to better products.
Teresa is a product coach helping teams adopt user-centered, hypothesis-driven product development practices, and is the creator of Product Talk. She works with companies of all sizes on integrating user research, experimentation, and the right analytics into the product development process resulting in better product decisions.
3 Growth Hacks: The Secrets to Driving Massive User Growth | Josh Elman, Grey...Dealmaker Media
Josh Elman, Partner, Greylock
Hear how the former product guy from Linkedin and Twitter grew their users from 10s of thousands to over 200 million users. He'll share his framework for measuring growth.
Businesses typically view UX design as a tactical activity. More and more, however, companies are turning to UX as a source of strategic growth. As they do so, creating a design strategy and aligning it with business goals becomes essential. For many UX designers this represents a new challenge requiring an expanded skill set.
This workshop provides a solid background for understanding, building and communicating an effective UX Strategy. Through many examples, hands-on activities, and references to relevant literature, you’ll learn about this emerging field that is critical to the future of UX.
In particular, we’ll be working with a tool I created based on combination of research and practical experience called the UX Strategy Blueprint.
This course is suited for information architects, interaction designers, visual designers, content strategists, and UX designers seeking to better understand strategy, as well as product managers and developers interested in UX strategy. It is geared towards practicioners with an intermediate to advance level of understanding of UX design, in general.
How to Break Into Product Management by Uber Product ManagerProduct School
Darrell focused on how he broke into product. He walked through his career and some of the lessons that he learned on the road to becoming a Product Manager at Uber.
Mastering the Problem Space to Achieve Product-Market Fit by Dan Olsen at Min...Dan Olsen
Dan Olsen gave this talk "Mastering the Problem Space to Achieve Product-Market Fit" at Mind the Product San Francisco on July 17, 2018. The talk includes advice from Dan's product management book The Lean Product Playbook.
Webinar: Writing Product Requirements Documents by Amazon Product LeadProduct School
This will be an informal chat about what it's like to use PRDs for a company. It'll cover the different ways they can be implemented within an organization and we'll also touch on some of the misconceptions that come with using PRDs.
Main takeaways:
What is a PRD and why is it important?
What does a good PRD look like?
How does one go about writing a PRD?
A talk Marc gave at the UI20 conference in Boston, November the 3rd, 2015.
Smaply: www.smaply.com
ExperienceFellow: www.experiencefellow.com
This is Service Design Thinking: www.thisisservicedesignthinking.com
This is Service Design Doing: www.thisisservicedesigndoing.com
Content:
1. The typology of journey maps
2. Customer experience research
3. Prototyping services
4. Service design and start-ups
Une expérience de Design Thinking à Groupama - Agile en Seine 2021Agile En Seine
Présenté par Amaury Massin, Responsable de projets, G2S Groupama
Depuis plusieurs années, les membres de la communauté Agile Groupama cherche à diffuser les valeurs et la pratique de l'agilité dans l'ensemble du groupe. L'approche "Design Thinking" a été retenue, d'abord en 2019 pour cadrer un projet de lancement d'un nouveau produit, puis cette année, pour repenser un parcours de découverte client.
La première expérience a été un franc succès, et l'on peut se demander pourquoi nous avons attendu deux ans pour relancer cette démarche.
Une des réponses que l'on peut apporter tient des difficultés que les membres d'une organisation peuvent avoir à changer leur état d'esprit et leur pratique. Chez Groupama, l’acculturation de l'agilité progresse, et les freins identifiés pour l'approche en Design Thinking disparaissent peu à peu, mettant de plus en plus en valeur ses bénéfices.
C'est cette même difficulté au changement radical à laquelle il nous arrive encore de faire face sur nos projets : tout le monde est convaincu des avantages de l'approche, mais la réalité du terrain est encore trop souvent un frein.
Nous proposons un retour d'expérience sur la mise en œuvre du design thinking par la communauté agile de Groupama en 2 points :
- Le Design Thinking en théorie (une approche millénaire, des valeurs centrées autour de l'humain et de l'utilisateur)
-Le Design Thinking chez Groupama
--Les adaptations de l'approche au contexte du groupe
--Un focus sur le projet 23Roues (Rex, Livrables, Facteurs clefs de succès, les difficultés rencontrées et comment on les a dépassées)
--La trajectoire: les autres utilisations de l'approche envisagées et nos objectifs à moyen terme.
Would you like to be able to increase the adoption rate of your product? In this session, we will introduce you to cutting edge concepts and techniques to shift your product development process from output to outcome driven. We will combine elements of Lean Startup, Product Discovery, and Experiment Driven Development to accelerate learning to quickly build products customer love.
Steve Blank's Secret History of Silicon Valley Computer History Museum 120708...Stanford University
Today, Silicon Valley is known around the world as a fount of technology innovation and development fueled by private venture capital and peopled by fabled entrepreneurs. But it wasn't always so. Unbeknownst to even seasoned inhabitants, today's Silicon Valley had its start in government secrecy and wartime urgency. In this lecture, renowned serial entrepreneur Steve Blank presents how the roots of Silicon Valley sprang not from the later development of the silicon semiconductor but instead from the earlier technology duel over the skies of Germany and secret efforts around (and over) the Soviet Union. World War II, the Cold War and one Stanford professor set the stage for the creation and explosive growth of entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley. The world was forever changed when the Defense Department, CIA and the National Security Agency acted like today's venture capitalists funding this first wave of entrepreneurship. Steve Blank shows how these groundbreaking early advances lead up to the high-octane, venture capital fueled Silicon Valley we know today.
Integrating JTBD into existing tools & frameworks / Jobs-to-be-Done Meetup Be...Martin Jordan
How do you link the Jobs-to-be-Done approach to the tools, methods and frameworks you are already using? After investigating the JTBD framework, the timeline, the four motivational forces and the retrospective interview technique, we spent an evening discussing the connections and possible integrations with related fields and disciplines, including:
• Value creation (marketing)
• Value proposition canvas & business model canvas (business design & modelling)
• Market segmentation (marketing)
• How might we questions (design thinking & ideation)
• Customer journey map (service design & development)
How to build a great user experience design portfolio and tell stories that get you hired. By Troy Parke and Patrick Neeman, presented at the Seattle Information Architecture & User Experience Meetup. Thanks Misty Melissa Weaver!
First, a PESTEL analysis of the Chinese market is put forward. Then, a VRINE analysis of the Papa John's operating system is conducted. Finally, recommendations are provided through the use of the strategic diamond.
How to Use Customer Feedback on Your Product by UserVoice CEOProduct School
Increased competition and higher customer expectations are forcing modern product management teams to up their game to keep pace. In this talk Richard White, CEO of UserVoice, talked about how product leaders are leveraging customer feedback, collected across the organization, to inform how they build the best product possible in the shortest amount of time.
How to Prioritize as a PM by Google's Product ManagerProduct School
In order to build the best possible solution, a product manager needs to understand why they are building. Once the problem and stakeholders have been identified, how does a PM tackle solving it? Jeff Betts, a Product Manager at Google, covered this problem-solving framework and share insights and anecdotes from his user-first approach to product development and prioritization strategy.
How to Leverage Your Skill Set for Product by Google Product ManagerProduct School
Product managers love to apply frameworks to solving big thorny business challenges in their day to day. Interestingly enough, one can use a framework for the PM job itself to abstract away the details and optimize for success. Learn about the most important advice on how to leverage your skills here
Renata Spers | Palestrante
Diretora do Profuturo – Programa de Estudos do Futuro da FIA – Fundação Instituto de Administração, onde atua desde 1998. Coordenadora Geral dos programas de pós-graduação MBA Executivo Internacional, International MBA e Americas MBA. Professora da FEA-USP; Pesquisadora de temas sobre Estratégia e Estudos do Futuro, com ênfase em cenários, métodos de prospecção do futuro, técnica Delphi, estratégia organizacional, mercados da base da pirâmide, inovação e economia das organizações. Realizou mais de 30 consultorias, assessorias e trabalhos técnicos relacionados a estes temas. Atua também com métodos ativos de aprendizagem e educação executiva.
Transformação Digital com Resultado - EVOLVECharles Betito
Apresentação sobre como funciona uma implantação correta de Jornada de Transformação Digital nas empresas. Quais são os pontos a serem considerados e como funciona a jornada de Transformação Digital. Apoio especial Evolve (evolve.rocks)
Webinar: Writing Product Requirements Documents by Amazon Product LeadProduct School
This will be an informal chat about what it's like to use PRDs for a company. It'll cover the different ways they can be implemented within an organization and we'll also touch on some of the misconceptions that come with using PRDs.
Main takeaways:
What is a PRD and why is it important?
What does a good PRD look like?
How does one go about writing a PRD?
A talk Marc gave at the UI20 conference in Boston, November the 3rd, 2015.
Smaply: www.smaply.com
ExperienceFellow: www.experiencefellow.com
This is Service Design Thinking: www.thisisservicedesignthinking.com
This is Service Design Doing: www.thisisservicedesigndoing.com
Content:
1. The typology of journey maps
2. Customer experience research
3. Prototyping services
4. Service design and start-ups
Une expérience de Design Thinking à Groupama - Agile en Seine 2021Agile En Seine
Présenté par Amaury Massin, Responsable de projets, G2S Groupama
Depuis plusieurs années, les membres de la communauté Agile Groupama cherche à diffuser les valeurs et la pratique de l'agilité dans l'ensemble du groupe. L'approche "Design Thinking" a été retenue, d'abord en 2019 pour cadrer un projet de lancement d'un nouveau produit, puis cette année, pour repenser un parcours de découverte client.
La première expérience a été un franc succès, et l'on peut se demander pourquoi nous avons attendu deux ans pour relancer cette démarche.
Une des réponses que l'on peut apporter tient des difficultés que les membres d'une organisation peuvent avoir à changer leur état d'esprit et leur pratique. Chez Groupama, l’acculturation de l'agilité progresse, et les freins identifiés pour l'approche en Design Thinking disparaissent peu à peu, mettant de plus en plus en valeur ses bénéfices.
C'est cette même difficulté au changement radical à laquelle il nous arrive encore de faire face sur nos projets : tout le monde est convaincu des avantages de l'approche, mais la réalité du terrain est encore trop souvent un frein.
Nous proposons un retour d'expérience sur la mise en œuvre du design thinking par la communauté agile de Groupama en 2 points :
- Le Design Thinking en théorie (une approche millénaire, des valeurs centrées autour de l'humain et de l'utilisateur)
-Le Design Thinking chez Groupama
--Les adaptations de l'approche au contexte du groupe
--Un focus sur le projet 23Roues (Rex, Livrables, Facteurs clefs de succès, les difficultés rencontrées et comment on les a dépassées)
--La trajectoire: les autres utilisations de l'approche envisagées et nos objectifs à moyen terme.
Would you like to be able to increase the adoption rate of your product? In this session, we will introduce you to cutting edge concepts and techniques to shift your product development process from output to outcome driven. We will combine elements of Lean Startup, Product Discovery, and Experiment Driven Development to accelerate learning to quickly build products customer love.
Steve Blank's Secret History of Silicon Valley Computer History Museum 120708...Stanford University
Today, Silicon Valley is known around the world as a fount of technology innovation and development fueled by private venture capital and peopled by fabled entrepreneurs. But it wasn't always so. Unbeknownst to even seasoned inhabitants, today's Silicon Valley had its start in government secrecy and wartime urgency. In this lecture, renowned serial entrepreneur Steve Blank presents how the roots of Silicon Valley sprang not from the later development of the silicon semiconductor but instead from the earlier technology duel over the skies of Germany and secret efforts around (and over) the Soviet Union. World War II, the Cold War and one Stanford professor set the stage for the creation and explosive growth of entrepreneurship in Silicon Valley. The world was forever changed when the Defense Department, CIA and the National Security Agency acted like today's venture capitalists funding this first wave of entrepreneurship. Steve Blank shows how these groundbreaking early advances lead up to the high-octane, venture capital fueled Silicon Valley we know today.
Integrating JTBD into existing tools & frameworks / Jobs-to-be-Done Meetup Be...Martin Jordan
How do you link the Jobs-to-be-Done approach to the tools, methods and frameworks you are already using? After investigating the JTBD framework, the timeline, the four motivational forces and the retrospective interview technique, we spent an evening discussing the connections and possible integrations with related fields and disciplines, including:
• Value creation (marketing)
• Value proposition canvas & business model canvas (business design & modelling)
• Market segmentation (marketing)
• How might we questions (design thinking & ideation)
• Customer journey map (service design & development)
How to build a great user experience design portfolio and tell stories that get you hired. By Troy Parke and Patrick Neeman, presented at the Seattle Information Architecture & User Experience Meetup. Thanks Misty Melissa Weaver!
First, a PESTEL analysis of the Chinese market is put forward. Then, a VRINE analysis of the Papa John's operating system is conducted. Finally, recommendations are provided through the use of the strategic diamond.
How to Use Customer Feedback on Your Product by UserVoice CEOProduct School
Increased competition and higher customer expectations are forcing modern product management teams to up their game to keep pace. In this talk Richard White, CEO of UserVoice, talked about how product leaders are leveraging customer feedback, collected across the organization, to inform how they build the best product possible in the shortest amount of time.
How to Prioritize as a PM by Google's Product ManagerProduct School
In order to build the best possible solution, a product manager needs to understand why they are building. Once the problem and stakeholders have been identified, how does a PM tackle solving it? Jeff Betts, a Product Manager at Google, covered this problem-solving framework and share insights and anecdotes from his user-first approach to product development and prioritization strategy.
How to Leverage Your Skill Set for Product by Google Product ManagerProduct School
Product managers love to apply frameworks to solving big thorny business challenges in their day to day. Interestingly enough, one can use a framework for the PM job itself to abstract away the details and optimize for success. Learn about the most important advice on how to leverage your skills here
Renata Spers | Palestrante
Diretora do Profuturo – Programa de Estudos do Futuro da FIA – Fundação Instituto de Administração, onde atua desde 1998. Coordenadora Geral dos programas de pós-graduação MBA Executivo Internacional, International MBA e Americas MBA. Professora da FEA-USP; Pesquisadora de temas sobre Estratégia e Estudos do Futuro, com ênfase em cenários, métodos de prospecção do futuro, técnica Delphi, estratégia organizacional, mercados da base da pirâmide, inovação e economia das organizações. Realizou mais de 30 consultorias, assessorias e trabalhos técnicos relacionados a estes temas. Atua também com métodos ativos de aprendizagem e educação executiva.
Transformação Digital com Resultado - EVOLVECharles Betito
Apresentação sobre como funciona uma implantação correta de Jornada de Transformação Digital nas empresas. Quais são os pontos a serem considerados e como funciona a jornada de Transformação Digital. Apoio especial Evolve (evolve.rocks)
Gestão e Engenharia do Conhecimento: Perspectivas e Resultados EmpresariaisRoberto C. S. Pacheco
Apresentação em evento organizado pela UFSC/EGC e CELESC em que foram tratadas as possibilidades e desafios da Gestão e de Engenharia do Conhecimento para o setor de energia elétrica. Essa apresentação discute casos de aplicações e perspectivas para o setor.
Clarice M. O. Kobayashi | Expositora
Graduada pela Escola Politécnica, Matemática e Psicologia na USP e EMBA na BSP e na FIA. Competências em estratégia, marketing, processos, fusão e aquisição, modelagem e aceleração de negócios e Projetos de “Smart Cities”. Faz parte dos seguintes Grupos de Excelência do CRA-SP: Trabalho na Sociedade em Transformação; Negócios de Energia e Pacto Global. Integra também o Projeto de Desenvolvimento Brasil 2035, NAPLP na FEA/USP; Associada fundadora e Diretora do Instituto Prospectivo - INSPER.
Techmining e Expertise Location: gestão estratégica do conhecimento organizac...Roberto C. S. Pacheco
Apresentação realizada no IX Encontro Nacional de Propriedade Intelectual, Inovação e Desenvolvimento (ENAPID). Apresenta a técnica de "expertise location" e projetos desenvolvidos junto a diversas organizações para gestão estratégica do conhecimento organizacional.
Gestão do conhecimento empresarial no Brasil: aprendizados e futuroRoberto C. S. Pacheco
Apresentação de fechamento do Fórum Executivo 2013 da SBGC, com a síntese das apresentações do evento e visão sobre pontos que podem impactar o futuro da GC.
Resenha baseada no relatório "Pulse of the Profession: Forging the Future: Evolving With Disruptive Technologies" (2018), publicado pela Accenture, em parceria com o Project Management Institute (PMI®). Esta resenha foi apresentada no evento 4ª PMI, em 08 de julho de 2020.
2. PENSANDO NO FUTURO | THINK TANK 2023
Reunimos um time de pensadores (Think Tank) que nos ajudou a determinar os principais pontos
de atenção para 2023.
Utilizando nossa metodologia para monitoramento antecipativo, integramos os sinais capturados
às indicações dos pensadores, a partir dos marcos de observação do modelo FCS, e submetemos
as hipótese desenvolvidas à validação do grupo.
Esse processo nos permitiu identificar as 10 questões estrategicamente mais relevantes (TIPs)
para o ano, que são apresentadas na sequência do presente documento.
Aqui, restringimos o horizonte de atenção a 2023, mas esse processo pode ser estendido para
períodos mais amplos, e aprofundado para cada setor, atividade ou organização, considerando o
ecossistema em questão.
2
3. OS 9 MARCOS DE OBSERVAÇÃO METODOLOGIA
Os participantes do Think Tank são convidados a
observar o mundo a partir dos 9 marcos de
observação da metodologia FCS, avaliando as
motivações para a transformação (strenght), as
influências do contexto (context) e as consequências
das possíveis mudanças (change).
Percorrer o “caminho das pedras” é um processo que
estimula a identificação de potenciais transformações
e as submete a um “filtro de realidade”, permitindo
elencar as que terão maior probabilidade de se
concretizar.
3
4. MONITORAMENTO ANTECIPATIVO
Inteligência Coletiva | estratégia, engajamento, inovação
A metodologia que utilizamos
para explorar possibilidades é
inspirada pelo método proposto
por Lesca, da Université Grenoble
| Veille Anticipative Stratégique –
Intelligence Collective (VAS-IC),
que compreende a busca de
sinais, a elaboração de hipóteses
e sua posterior validação, de
forma coletiva. Oferece a
perspectiva estratégica e promove
o engajamento dos participantes
METODOLOGIA
COLETAR
EXPLORAR
ANALISAR
VALIDAR
TEMA TESE
HIPÓTE
SES
Captura de
sinais
Possibilidade
relevante
antecipativa
Análise e
validação
Varredura
direcionada
Ideias
relevantes
Formação
de sentido
Proposta de
temas para
monitoração
4
5. 10 THINKER’S INSIGHT POINTS | 2023
Como resultado desse processo, elencamos os 10 principais pontos
de atenção para 2023, que batizamos de Thinker’s Insight Points
(TIPs).
Eles apontam para os temas, questões, movimentos, percepções,
necessidades ou preocupações prementes para o ano.
Apresentamos o significado de cada um deles, ainda de forma
sumária, nas duas páginas seguintes.
Esse é um exercício geral, que tem como objetivo balizar
estratégias e estimular o pensamento de equipes dedicadas à
inovação, facilitando o desenho de possíveis cenários futuros.
IMEDIATISMO
INCERTEZA
TECNOLOGIAS
HABILIDADES
CONFIANÇA
INOVAÇÃO ABERTA
LIDERANÇA
OPORTUNIDADES
ESG
CUSTO BRASIL
2
0
2
3
THINK TANK
TIPS
5
6. THINKER’S INSIGHTS 2023 (1/2)
1. IMEDIATISMO | pessoas desejando segurança e tranquilidade; empresas preocupadas com
resultados; governos em busca de estabilidade – foco na sobrevivência imediata
2. INCERTEZAS | o cenário econômico instável e os conflitos geopolíticos acentuam a
sensação geral de insegurança e desmotivam o planejamento para prazos mais longos
3. TECNOLOGIAS | inteligência artificial e interfaces imersivas cumprem a função de
entreter (a sociedade angustiada) e gerar novas oportunidades de negócio (para empresas
e empreendedores). Bio e Nano tecnologias também podem trazer boas surpresas para a
medicina, ainda neste ano – tecnologia é a fonte para a economia da abundância.
Segurança da informação pessoal é uma preocupação crescente (vulnerabilidade)
4. HABILIDADES | “você não vai perder seu emprego para a inteligência artificial, vai perder
para quem sabe o que fazer com ela” – novas habilidades são requeridas para 2023, e
estarão mais relacionadas com a gestão de recursos tecnológicos e humanos
5. CONFIANÇA | é o ativo mais escasso do momento, em todas as esferas, portanto ganha
valor – economia da escassez
6
7. THINKER’S INSIGHTS 2023 (2/2)
6. INOVAÇÃO ABERTA | entendimento que alianças são a forma mais eficiente para enfrentar
desafios – essa recomendação fez parte do fechamento do WEF 2023, em Davos – Open
Innovation é um contraponto para a fragmentação global e a escassez de confiança
7. LIDERANÇA | criatividade (para inovar), humanidade (para engajar) e ética (para gerir o
negócio) formam a tríade de “soft skills” das lideranças em 2023. A experiência volta a
ser associada à estabilidade emocional e à habilidade de evitar problemas, e profissionais
mais velhos podem recuperar espaço no mercado de trabalho – contraponto para idadismo
8. OPORTUNIDADES| alguns setores devem ser mais demandados: Defesa, Energia, Saúde,
Tecnologia e Turismo; outros precisarão ser mais criativos para encontrar oportunidades
9. ESG | temas relacionados à responsabilidade corporativa estarão em todas as pautas, mas
não necessariamente resultando em ações concretas em 2023, um ano mais imediatista
10. CUSTO BRASIL | pressão para reforma tributária, incentivos fiscais e crédito facilitado – o
cenário político indica que 2023 será um ano de negociações
7
8. GAME CHANGERS
Proliferação e recrudescimento de conflitos geopolíticos e econômicos
Colapso de alguma cadeia de suprimentos relevante
Colapso pontual de infraestruturas
Erosão localizada da coesão social; explosão da criminalidade
Desastres ambientais com ênfase na questão climática
Colapso ambiental afetando reservas naturais
Mega ataques cibernéticos (cybercrime)
Antecipações da biotecnologia - agricultura, fármaco, alimentos, ambiente, biomonitoramento
Antecipações da tecnologia infraestrutural – computação quântica, produção de energia verde,
interfaces de comunicação
o que pode surpreender
Alguns acontecimentos têm o poder de transformar os cenários de forma radical,
antecipando ou alterando cenários futuros possíveis, e devem ser monitorados e
considerados nas análises estratégicas das organizações.
Fonte: WEF Global Risks Perception Survey 2022/2023 e desk research
8
9. OS PENSADORES
colaboraram com o presente estudo
Amelia Caetano
§ MCT Consultoria
Andreia Mariano
§ FuturExperience
Bernardo Canedo
§ Plusoft DTM
Claudio Ferrari
§ D’Or Institute
Claudio Queiroz
§ Liga Pesquisa
Daniel Bruin
§ XCom
Edmar Bulla
§ CROMA Group
Fabio Lima
§ Sofa Digital
Flavio Ferrari
§ SocialData / ESPM
Lucio Mesquita
§ Earshot Strategies
Marcelo Coutinho
§ FGV
Marcio Pinheiro
§ CNN
Nelcina Tropardi
§ DASA
Regina Augusto
§ CENP
Roberta Lippi
§ Brunswick Group
Rodrigo Ferrari
§ Canal Platinho
Rodrigo Helcer
§ Stilingue
Sandra Martinelli
§ ABA
Vanessa Mathias
§ White Rabbit
THINK TANK
Cenários Futuros 2023
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10. Algumas das fontes para captura de sinais
World Economic Forum | https://www.weforum.org
Deloitte | https://www2.deloitte.com
StartSe | https://www.startse.com
KPMG | https://home.kpmg/br/pt/home.html
Trend.Watching | https://www.trendwatching.com/
Think With Google | https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com
Stilingue | www.stilingue.com.br
Diversos sites apontando tendências setoriais
Diversos sites de notícias
Acompanhamento de grupos de discussão
Pesquisa de referências relacionadas (desk research)
Sondagens sobre temas de interesse
Conversas com especialistas
Indicações dos pensadores
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11. Para conhecer, com detalhes, como chegamos aos 10 TIPs, contratação de
palestras, realização de workshops de inovação, implementação de
programas de monitoramento antecipativo ou desenvolvimento de cultura
de inovação, entre em contato com:
Amelia Caetano | MCT (www.mctrends.com.br)
Amelia.Caetano@mctrends.com.br
WhatsApp: +55 11 963 001 830
Flavio Ferrari | SocialData (www.socialdata.com.br)
Flavio.Ferrari@unit34.com.br
WhatsApp: +55 11 970 665 815
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