Session presented at Regional Scrum Gathering Ecuador.

1. Is it a
crime to
#estimate? @JulianoRibeiro

2. Academics
• Software developer since 1994
• Graduated in Systems to Internet
• Post graduation in OOP with Java
• Certified Scrum Professional by Scrum Alliance
• Certified Delphi Developer by Embarcadero

3. More about me
• Agile Methods Teacher at Faculdade Cidade Verde
• Agile Coach at Objective Solutions
• Organizer of Agile Tour since 2011
• 2014 in Sao Paulo, Maringa, Cascavel, Brasilia, Campinas
and Curitiba
• Regular speaker at main conferences in Brazil
• Agile Brazil, Agile Trends, The Developers Conference,
DevInSantos, DevCamp, Linguágil...

4. Estimates Sucks

5. define:estimate
• es.ti.ma.te
• es·ti·mat·ed, es·ti·mat·ing, es·ti·mates
• To calculate approximately (the amount, extent,
magnitude, position, or value of something).
• A tentative evaluation or rough calculation, as of worth,
quantity, or size: an estimate of the damage caused by
the storm.
• A statement of the approximate cost of work to be done,
such as a building project or car repairs.

6. approximately...

7. Natural born imprecise

8. It’s only
a guess

9. Vilains

10. #NoEstimates

11. #NOESTIMATES
Woody Zuill first wrote
this hashtag on twitter
He said it was an
invitation, a challenge,
not that you literally
should not estimate at
all!

12. This isn’t
what we
do!

13. Less waste

14. Understand your system
Complex
systems
Complicated
systems
Chaotic
systems
Simple
systems
disorder

15. Accept the variability

16. Focus on work

17. Understand that:
Estimates are not
deadlines!

18. #Estimates
But with inteligence

19. Why we do estimates?
• To plan
• To have a schedule
• To alocate resources
• To alocate money

20. Actual estimation process
Function points
Planning poker
Story points / T-Shirt sizing
Lead / Cicle time

22. Planning Poker

24. Lead/Cicle time
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

25. Analisys
Duração Qtde %
1 2 6,7%
90,1%
2 8 26,7%
3 6 20,0%
4 5 16,7%
5 6 20,0%
6 1 3,3%
7 1 3,3%
8 0 0,0%
9 1 3,3%
10 0 0,0%
30 100%

26. One
real
case...

27. Initial State
Scrum Complete and “by the book”
Planning with estimatives
Review with validation

28. How it was
Sprints failing…
Focus on delivery instead of quality
Several user stories almost accepted
Costumer unhappy
And also the team

29. The changes
Continuous delivery
Changing on commitment
Planning  Refinement
Review  Continuous feedback

30. Results
All user stories now are delivered
between 3 and 5 days
And so, this team don’t estimate any more

31. #NoEstimates only works if
…is that it is possible to do small chunks of work
incrementally, leading as rapidly as possible to a
desired shippable product, and that when you do
that there is no need to do much of anything in the
way of estimating stories or the project.
Ron Jeffries

32. Obrigado
@JulianoRibeiro
juliano.ribeiro@objective.com.br
www.julianoribeiro.com

33. References
http://xprogramming.com/articles/the-noestimates-movement/
http://www.akitaonrails.com/2013/04/05/traducao-estimativa-o-melhor-que-
podemos-fazer#.U9qlDvldV8E
http://www.akitaonrails.com/2013/10/07/off-topic-noestimates-
debunked#.U9qgjfldV8E
http://zuill.us/WoodyZuill/2013/05/13/my-customers-need-estimates-what-do-i-
do/
http://agileatlas.org/images/uploads/Agile_Atlas_-_pt-br.pdf
https://www.scrum.org/Portals/0/Documents/Scrum%20Guides/2013/Scrum-
Guide-Portuguese-BR.pdf
http://xprogramming.com/what-is-extreme-programming/
http://www.amazon.com.br/Kanban-English-David-J-Anderson-
ebook/dp/B0057H2M70