Prospective Foresight in Brazil: An overview and cases

MUTUAL LEARNING WORKSHOP ON SCENARIOS
CGEE, Brasília (Brazil), 5 December 2012

Prospective Foresight in Brazil:
An overview and cases
Claudio Porto
CEO Macroplan, Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão

Permitida a distribuição e reprodução desde que citada a fonte

Claudio Porto

 CEO of Macroplan – Prospectiva, Estratégia & Gestão

 30 years working on prospective foresight

 Macroplan is recognized in the Brazilian marketplace as one of the most
experienced consulting Brazilian companies in prospective studies and strategic
management

 Almost 80 prospective studies produced to date

Contents

 The evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil

 Five emblematic cases

1. Scenarios of the Brazilian Economy, BNDES (1984-90)

2. Scenarios about the future of the Amazon Region (ELETRONORTE) (1988,
1998)

3. Introduction and Consolidation of the use of Scenarios in Petrobras (1989,
1992)

4. Scenarios in the State of Minas Gerais (2003-2007)

5. Brazil in transition: current landscape and future trends 2011-2022 (2011)

 Summary and conclusions

The Evolution of Prospective Foresight in Brazil -
From the 1970’s to today

 Until the 1970’s: embryos (IDESP and IUPERJ)

 1980’s: emergence (the precursors)

 1990’s: dissemination

 2000 to today: generalization in large companies or institutions

The choice of cases

 Criteria: the relevance of its impacts, using an elegant application of the
idea of the “Greek Triangle” built by Michel Godet (1991)

ANTICIPATION
(Reason)

THE GREEK
TRIANGLE

APPROPRIATION ACTION
(Desire) (Accomplishment)

1980’s - The Brazilian Context

1. External crisis (including the consequences of the oil prices shock in our
economy and default of the Brazilian external debt)

2. Low economic growth (“the lost decade”, average 1.55% /year) and
social crisis (39% of population in poverty in 1989)

3. Hyperinflation (1,973% in 1989)

4. Economy: closed and technologically outdated

5. Politics: transition from a military regimen to democracy.

1º First Case
BNDES economy scenarios (1984)

» The National Bank for Economic and Social Development – BNDES is
currently the main financial institution for long-term investments in all
segments of the Brazilian economy. In 2011 the ampount of it’s
disbursements was about US$ 70 billion

» 1984: BNDES implemented a strategic planning process that included the
use of two macroeconomic scenarios:

ECONOMIC GROWTH SCENARIO
ADJUSTMENT SCENARIO (THE “OFFICIAL” VISION) • Confidencial
• External debt renegotiation in the long
• Scrolling annual external debt • Information leak
term and with better conditions
• Economy: continuity of restrictive policies • High repercussion
• Economic policy: resumption of
in accordance with the IMF in society
development

COMPETITIVE INTEGRATION SCENARIO
• Updated industrial structure
• Open and competitive economy
• External debt renegotiation in the long
term and with better conditions

1º First Case
BNDES economy scenarios (1984) - Impacts

ANTICIPATION

» The possibility of a new cycle of economic growth

APPROPRIATION

» By the elected President of the Republic (1989), supported by a strong
national desire to overcome recession

ACTION AND CONSEQUENCES

» Beginning of the openness of the Brazilian economy

2º Second Case (Part one)
The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988)

» ELETRONORTE is a state-owned company
that generates and provides electric power
to the nine states of the Amazon Region
and also provides energy to buyers from
other regions of the country. Total installed
capacity = 9.294,33 megawatts and
transmission systems have over 9.888,02
km of lines.
• AMAZON REGION = 49,29%
BRAZIL´S TOTAL AREA » Mission: Acting in energy markets in an
integrated, cost-effective and sustainable
way

2º Second Case (Part one)

» Aim: supporting its assessments of demand for electric energy and investment plan.

» Three scenarios of Amazon Region from 1989-2010

INTEGRATION WITH THE FOCUS ON ENDOGENOUS ECOLOGIC AND CULTURAL
NATIONAL PROJECT DEVELOPMENT RESTRICTION
1 2 3
» Two important contributions of this study

» introduced the embryo of the sustainable development concept  increasing influence
in the company’s decisions

» Introduced the use of scenarios to prospect the market of electrical energy in Brazil
instead of extrapolative forecasts  A pioneering initiative that becomes standard in
the electrical sector in the 1990’s.

1990’s - The Brazilian Context

1. Stabilization of the economy after the Real Plan in 1994

2. Continuous opening of the Brazilian economy

3. Privatization in several economic sectors, end of monopolies and
increased competition

4. Modernization of public institutions (remarkable: regulation)

5. Increased soundness of the financial system

6. Consolidation of democracy

3º Third Case
Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992, 1996)

» Petrobras is a publicly traded joint-stock corporation whose main shareholder is the
Government of Brazil. It acts as an energy company in the following sectors:
exploration and production, refinement, marketing and transportation of oil and
natural gas, petrochemicals, distribution of oil, electricity, biofuels and other renewable
energy sources. The company leads the Brazilian oil sector.

» Petrobras Business Plan 2012-2016: investments totaling US$ 236.5 billion (R$ 416,5
billion) - an average of US $ 47,3 billion per year.

» Strategic planning was formally adopted by PETROBRAS in 1989 and based on scenario
analysis.

3º Third Case
Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)

» A participative process

» The scenarios and strategic Options in 1992 (Strategic Plan 1992-
2001)

PETROBRAS’ SCENARIOS
GLOBAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY
1. Trans-nationalization - hegemony of big STRATEGIC OPTIONS
private oil companies • Consolidation and strengthening in the
2. Fragmented Cooperation - shared national market
hegemony in the petroleum industry • Expansion of international operations
NATIONAL SCENARIOS AND FOCUS ON OIL INDUSTRY • Integration, competitiveness and business
• Neoliberal excellence
• Permanency of the crisis
• Welfare state

3º Third Case
Scenarios of Oil & Gas Industry – (PETROBRAS, 1989, 1992)

ANTICIPATION
» Loss of monopoly and emergence of competition
» Increasing uncertainty and new challenges in the industry

APPROPRIATION
» Assimilation of scenarios and prospective methods by a large portion of the senior management and technical
staff of the company

» Preparation of the company and its managers and professionals to deal successfully with the end of monopoly,
increasing competition and higher uncertainty
» PETROBRAS developed a skilled decision making process when faced with uncertainties. Today, the
construction of scenarios, which started in the company over 23 years ago, is part of their culture and strategic
management process

2º Second Case (Part two)

» In 1998, ELETRONORTE decided to revisit the 10 years old prospective study

» The prospects of 1989 against the real events of the previous 10 years were evaluated

» Four scenarios were devised for the Amazon Region looking into the following 20 years:

REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH AT
SUSTAINABLE MODERATE INTEGRATION THE EXPENSE OF 3
STAGNATION AND POVERTY
DEVELOPMENT AND BETTER QUALITY ENVIRONMENTAL
OF LIFE DEGRADATION
1 2 3 4

2º
Second Case (Part two)
The scenarios of the Amazon Region and electric energy (Eletronorte, 1988) - Impacts

ANTICIPATION

» A systemic view of the main issues and challenges resulting from the economic
exploitation of the Amazon Region

APPROPRIATON

» Relevant contribution to a gradual formation of a political convergence concerning the
sustainable development of the Amazon Region.

» Recognizing of the potential of economic exploitation of biodiversity


» The search for new sustainable production standards for the Amazon Region

2000’s to Today –
The Brazilian Context

1. Prolonged economic stability

2. Overcoming of external restrictions

3. Increasing social inclusion: “Brazil, a medium class country”

4. Increasing insertion of Brazil into global economy

5. Brazil emerges as an attractive land of economic opportunities

6. New challenges and uncertainties facing the future of the country in the medium
and long terms

4º Fourth Case
Scenarios and development strategy of the state of Minas Gerais (2003, 2007)

• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER
THAN FRANCE)

• POPULATION: NEARLY 20
MILLION PEOPLE

• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
BRAZILIAN STATES

Scenarios for Minas Gerais State 2003-2023
COMPETITIVE

• Strategic
TERRITORIAL

“To turn Minas
Brazil
INTEGRATION
Sustained development of domestic
economy
ENVIRONMENTAL EQUITY AND
SUSTAINABILITY WELFARE

WASTE of
opportunities
CONQUEST of a
better future INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE Gerais into the best Guidelines
Minas Gerais

II I
HUMAN CAPITAL
Minas Gerais Minas Gerais
INVESTMENT
environment environment NETWORK CITIES

state to live in” • Projects
IV III
&BUSINESS
 Conservative  Creative
 Inefficient  Competitive
DECADENCE and OVERCOMING
 Excluding impoverishment adversities  Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS

Domestic economy with
intermittent growth

4º Fourth Case


Brazil
• AREA: 586,528 KM² (LARGER Sustained development of
domestic economy
THAN FRANCE)

WASTE of CONQUEST of a
MILLION PEOPLE opportunities better future
Minas Gerais

• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG II I
Minas Gerais’ Minas Gerais’
BRAZILIAN STATES
environment environment
IV III
 Inefficient
DECADENCE and OVERCOMING  Competitive
impoverishment adversities
COMPETITIVE

 Excluding • Strategic
 Inclusive
TERRITORIAL

“To turn Minas
Brazil
INTEGRATION
economy

WASTE of
opportunities
CONQUEST of a
Minas Gerais

II I
HUMAN CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

IV III
&BUSINESS
 Inefficient
 Excluding
DECADENCE and
impoverishment
OVERCOMING
adversities
 Competitive
 Inclusive
STATE FOR
RESULTS

intermittent growth
intermittent growth

4º Fourth Case

COMPETITIVE
TERRITORIAL
INTEGRATION
SUSTAINABILITY)
THAN FRANCE
WELFARE
MILLION PEOPLE INTEGRATED
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG HUMAN CAPITAL
BRAZILIAN STATES
INVESTMENT
NETWORK CITIES
&BUSINESS
COMPETITIVE

• Strategic
TERRITORIAL

“To turn Minas
Brazil
INTEGRATION
economy

WASTE of
opportunities
CONQUEST of a
PERSPECTIVE OF THE
STATE FOR
Gerais into the best Guidelines
Minas Gerais

II I
HUMAN CAPITAL

RESULTS
INVESTMENT

IV III
&BUSINESS
STATE FOR
RESULTS

intermittent growth

4º Fourth Case

AFTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FOUR SCENARIOS, THE FIRST ONE OF THEM WAS
THAN FRANCE)

• POPULATION: REFERENCE FOR THE CREATION OF THE VISION OF THE FUTURE FOR
CHOSEN AS A NEARLY 20
MILLION PEOPLE
MINAS GERAIS OVER A PERIOD OF 20 YEARS:
• ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
BRAZILIAN STATES
“TO TURN MINAS GERAIS INTO THE BEST STATE TO LIVE IN”
COMPETITIVE

• Strategic
TERRITORIAL

“To turn Minas
Brazil
INTEGRATION
economy

WASTE of
opportunities
CONQUEST of a
Minas Gerais

II I
HUMAN CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

IV III
&BUSINESS
STATE FOR
RESULTS

intermittent growth

4º Fourth Case

THE VISION WAS THEN SPLIT INTO:
THAN FRANCE)

• •POPULATION: NEARLY 20
STRATEGIC GUIDELINES
MILLION PEOPLE

• •ECONOMY: THIRD AMONG
PORTFOLIO OF STRUCTURING AND LEVERAGING PROJECTS FOR THE
BRAZILIAN STATES
DEVELOPMENT OF THE STATE
COMPETITIVE

• Strategic
TERRITORIAL

“To turn Minas
Brazil
INTEGRATION
economy

WASTE of
opportunities
CONQUEST of a
Minas Gerais

II I
HUMAN CAPITAL
INVESTMENT

IV III
&BUSINESS
STATE FOR
RESULTS

intermittent growth

4º Fourth Case

ANTICIPATION
» The threat of losing many opportunities unless making severe adjustments in the state and its
government

APPROPRIATION
» Choice of strategies aligned with the scenarios

» Realization of the urgent need for modernization of the state government toward higher
efficiency

» Public policies aligned with the scenarios

» “The shock of management” in state government

BNDES ELETRONORTE PETROBRAS MINAS GERAIS
(1984) (1988, 1998) (1989, 1992, 1996) (2003-2023)

The anticipation of
Anticipation

The threat of losing many
political, economic, and Loss of monopoly and
opportunities unless
The possibility of a new environmental issues emergence of competition
making severe adjustments
cycle of economic growth resulting from the
in the state and its
economic exploitation of Increasing uncertainty
government
the Amazon Region

Contribution to a gradual
Choice of strategies aligned
By the elected President formation of a political
Appropriation

Assimilation of prospective with the scenarios
(1989) convergence concerning
methods by a large portion
Amazon region’s biggest
of the senior management Realization of the urgent
A strong national desire to challenge.
and technical staff of the need for modernization of
overcome recession
company the state government
The potential of economic
toward higher efficiency
exploitation of biodiversity

Public policies aligned with
Preparation of managers
the scenarios
The beginning of the The search for new and professionals to deal
Action

openness of the Brazilian production standards on successfully with the end
“The shock of
economy sustainable base of monopoly, competition
management” in state
and higher uncertainty
government

Conclusions

 The use and dissemination of prospective foresight in Brazil made significant progress
during the last 30 years.

 Unfortunately, we are still missing a long term prospective and strategic view for the
country. We – society, state, companies – are excessively focused on short term tactic
questions.

 However, there has been an increasing demand for a long term view from new
leaderships. Our current development stage itself requires such view.

 I am, therefore, optimistic: this is likely the decade when Brazil – as a nation and a
society – will pursue and build a long term vision of development.

 And all of us, with the methods and tools of prospective foresight , will be able to
make relevant contributions to this project.

Thank you. cporto@macroplan.com.br

Remarkable Prospective Projects
supported by Macroplan
12. Construção de Cenários para o Setor Energético e o segmento
1. Cenários do ambiente de atuação das micro e pequenas de Óleo e Gás 2002-2010 e elaboração da Visão de Futuro do
empresas do Rio de Janeiro 2012-2013 (2012) Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas para o CTPETRO – Fundo
Setorial do Petróleo (Mar-Jul, 2002).
2. Análise de tendências de longo prazo e elaboração do
Plano Mineiro de Desenvolvimento Integrado horizonte 13. Atualização dos Cenários Sócio-Econômicos e Energéticos da
2030 (2011) Amazônia para o Horizonte 1998/2020 - ELETRONORTE (Out,
2000 - Abril, 2001)
3. Quatro cenários da cidade de Belo Horizonte 2010-2030
(2009) 14. Elaboração dos cenários focalizados no mercado de
distribuição de combustíveis no Brasil – horizonte 2002/2006
4. Cenários do Ambiente de Atuação do do Sistema (2001)
Eletrobras 2020 (2010)
15. Mapeamento das Incertezas e Construção dos Cenários do
5. Quatro Cenários Econômicos para o Brasil 2008-2014 Mercado de Energia Elétrica – Horizonte 2001-2011 ( 2001).
6. Cenários Exploratórios do Rio de Janeiro no Horizonte 16. Cenários da Educação a Distância no Brasil – Horizonte 2010;
2007-2027 (2007) como etapa integrante do processo de planejamento
7. Cenários Exploratórios de Minas Gerais no Horizonte estratégico do desenvolvimento da Educação à Distância do
2007-2023 (2007) SENAC São Paulo para o horizonte 2000-2005 (Fev-Abril 2000)
8. Cenários do ambiente de atuação das organizações 17. Cenários do setor de Telecomunicações no Brasil no Horizonte
públicas de PD&I do Agronegócio no Horizonte 2023 1996/2010 para a EMBRATEL (1996)
(Embrapa, 2007) 18. Consultoria metodológica à Secretaria de Assuntos
9. Três Cenários para o Desenvolvimento do Estado do Estratégicos da Presidência da República na construção de
Espírito Santo (2006) Cenários Exploratórios do Brasil no Horizonte 2020 (Jan - Jun,
10. “O Ensino Superior no Mundo e no Brasil – 1996)
Condicionantes, Tendências e Cenários para o Horizonte 19. Consultoria à elaboração de análise prospectiva e Cenários de
2003-2025” (2003) Educação Profissional e do ambiente de atuação do SENAI –
11. Cenários de Desenvolvimento para a elaboração do Horizonte 1995-2010 ( 1995)
Plano Estratégico do Sistema Petrobras – 2004-2015 20. Cenários para o Mato Grosso do Sul no horizonte 1995-2010
(2003 – 2004) (Mar-Set, 1995)

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