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António Alvarenga 1
ECONOMIC STRATEGIES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT:
THE PORTUGUESE GREEN GROWTH STRATEGY IN
THE GLOBAL CONTEXT
António Alvarenga
IST/CEG-IST, ISEG, ALVA R&C
António Alvarenga 2
Index
• The twin challenge: plotting human development and ecological footprint
• Sustainable development
• Megatrends
• ‘Green’ Economy: the concept
• ‘Green’ Economy / ‘Green’ Growth: A Family of Concepts
• The Green Growth Commitment
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António Alvarenga 3
Twin challenge (UNEP 2012, GEO5 Global Environment Outlook)
“a good life”
António Alvarenga 4
In response to the global economic crisis, the concept of ‘Green’ Economy
emerged, as a tool for sustainable optimization of resources and job
creation.
This concept has been gaining traction and may become relevant in the
search for solutions to the multiple global challenges Portugal faces today,
in the context of the structural transformation of its economy.
Sustainable development
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António Alvarenga 5
Sustainable development – a definition
The concept of sustainable development is reflected in a pattern of
development that "seeks to meet the needs of the present without
compromising those of future generations." This concept contains two
essential aspects:
• The concept of needs. In particular, the needs of the poorest countries,
to which priority should be given;
• The idea that there are limitations imposed by technology’s state of the
art, social organization and the environment's ability to meet present and
future needs.
Source: Brundtland Report 1987 and DPP 2010: SD28 - Sustentabilidade
Sustainable development
António Alvarenga 6
Sustainable development - a vision?
Sustainable development is simultaneously:
• A concept - the way it changes the world’s prevailing perception towards a
more holistic and balanced approach;
• A process - how its principles are integrated over time and space, in all
decisions;
• A final goal or target - dealing with the specific problems of resource
depletion, health care, social exclusion, poverty, unemployment, among
others.
Source: DPP 2010: SD28 - Sustentabilidade
Sustainable development
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António Alvarenga 7
Sustainable development - characteristics
The general principles related to sustainability include:
→ Intergenerational balance, allowing future generations to have at least the same
chances in environmental terms than the present generation (if not better);
→ Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation, increasing
economic efficiency so that sustainable development is less resource intensive;
→ Integration of all pillars: environment, economy, society, culture and politics;
→ Focus on adaptive capacity and resilience of ecosystems;
→ Prevention of irreversible damage to ecosystems and human health;
→ Guarantee of equity, avoiding unnecessary and high environmental costs to the
most vulnerable populations;
→ Acceptance of responsibility for the effects globally caused to the environment;
→ Growing environmental awareness and education, embodied in problem
identification and in research and development of solutions.
Source: DPP 2010: SD28 - Sustentabilidade
Sustainable development
António Alvarenga 8
Megatrends
» Megatrends have been and will remain key determinants of prosperity and peace
for decades or even centuries...
» The recognition of the dialectic between economic growth and sustainable
development is crucial.
Demographic and environmental megatrends, for example, have
deep implications for (de)growth!
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9
Megatrends
Megatrends are long-term
processes of transformation with a
broad scope and a dramatic
impact. They are considered to be
powerful factors which shape the
future. Adapted from:
Holger Glockner, Andreas Neef
Z_trenddatabase - An Essential Tool for Strategy and Future Work in Companies
Z_punkt GmbH - The Foresight Company
Cologne, Germany.
10
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11
http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/englisch/D_Downloads/Megatrends_Update_EN.pdf
12
http://www.rolandberger.com/gallery/trend-compendium/tc2030/content/assets/trendcompendium2030.pdf
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António Alvarenga 13
http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/global-megatends/global-megatends
http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/global/action-download-pdf
António Alvarenga 14
Global Megatrends by the EEA - European Environment Agency:
SOCIAL
1) Diverging global population trends;
2) Towards a more urban world;
3) Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics;
TECHNOLOGICAL
4) Accelerating technological change;
ECONOMIC
5) Continued economic growth?
6) An increasingly multipolar world;
7) Intensified global competition for resources;
ENVIRONMENTAL
8) Growing pressures on ecosystems;
9) Increasingly severe consequences of climate change;
10) Increasing environmental pollution;
POLITICAL
11) Diversifying approaches to governance.
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15
Example
Competition
for Knowledge
and Innovation
Emerging
Economies –
Asia
Pressure on
Hydric Resources
and Greenhouse
Gases Emissions
Oil and Gas
Supply
Restrictions
Population
Ageing
António Alvarenga 16
Green Economy: the concept
The concept of “green economy” has gained traction as the world
has been searching for solutions to multiple global challenges.
It emerged from the Green Economy Initiative launched by the
United Nations Environment Programme, in 2008.
“Green Economy” should not be considered a new paradigm but
rather a means to operationalize sustainable development, through
the urgent need to reconcile economic growth and poverty
reduction with environmental conservation.
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António Alvarenga 17
Green Economy: the concept
Search and implementation of environmentally sustainable processes.
Generation of new economic and social opportunities.
Demand for environmentally friendly goods and services that promote social equity and
welfare.
This concept of ‘Green’ Economy complements and extends the scope of the classical
concept: the focus is no longer exclusively centered on punishment for negative
environmental behaviors, but also on stimulating production, consumption and trade of
environmental and environmentally friendly goods and services (Sheng Fulai, 2010).
António Alvarenga 18
Green Economy: the concept
Green Growth/Green Economy
According to OECD, ‘Green’ Growth is about fostering growth and
economic development while ensuring that natural resources continue to
provide environmental services on which our well-being relies. To this
end, investment and innovation should be encouraged, sustaining
growth and generating new economic opportunities.
UNEP defines ‘Green’ Economy as one that results in improved human
well-being and social equity, while reducing environmental risks and
ecological scarcities.
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António Alvarenga 19
Green Economy: the concept
The Classic concept of ‘Green’ Economy
Typically understood as an economic system that is compatible with the
natural environment and socially just.
Integrates some fundamental concepts: the use of renewable resources
within their regenerative capacity, making up for the loss of non-
renewable resources, limiting pollution within the sink functions of nature,
maintaining the resilience and stability of ecosystems, ensuring that the
needs of future generations will be met, ensure equal distribution
between rich and poor, equal treatment for women in access to resources
and opportunities, decent working conditions. Governance and democracy
are critical to ensure equity and social justice.
António Alvarenga 20
Green Economy: the concept
The Modern Concept of ‘Green’ Economy
Environmental concepts are no longer seen as constraints to economic
development but regarded as forces that can generate new economic
opportunities – search for environmentally friendly goods and services
that ensure well-being.
This concept complements and extends the scope of the classical
concept: along with punishment for negative environmental behaviours
economic agents are encouraged to produce, consume and trade
environmental and environmentally friendly goods and services. This
instrumental perspective recognises that it is through investment (public
and private) in innovation, technology, infrastructure and institutions,
that economies achieve fundamental structural change.
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António Alvarenga 21
Green Economy: the concept
Ten key sectors to boost green growth:
 Agriculture;
 Fisheries;
 Forestry;
 Building construction;
 Energy supply;
 Industry and energy efficiency;
 Tourism;
 Transportation;
 Waste and water management.
António Alvarenga 22
Green Economy: the concept
A Family of Concepts Related to ‘Green’ Economy
SUSTAINABLE
CONSUMPTION
AND
PRODUCTION
Defined in line with the concept of sustainable development, puts the
focus on inter-generational equity in meeting basic needs and improving
quality of life while minimising the use of resources and the generation of
waste and pollutants over the full life cycle of products. The policy of the
three R's is also crucial in this scope.
LOW
CARBON
ECONOMY
Can be analysed as a result of the operationalization of the concept of
green economy: investment in renewable energy provides new forms of
income and employment and reduces carbon emissions.
CIRCULAR
ECONOMY
An economy that reduces the consumption of resources and the
generation of wastes, implementing the policy of the three R's: Reduce,
Reuse and Recycle throughout the production, supply and consumption
processes.
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António Alvarenga 23
Green Economy/ Green Growth: A Family of Concepts
António Alvarenga 24
Three drivers:
• Two Megatrends
“Climate change”
“Pressure on resources and loss of biodiversity”
• A Crucial Uncertainty
"(Duration and intensity of the) economic and financial crisis“
Tips of a triangle with a base composed of sectors whose evolution
operationalizes approaches around the concepts of ‘Green’ Economy / ‘Green’
Growth, with the final purpose of achieving sustainable development.
Green Economy/ Green Growth: A Family of Concepts
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POEs
PERH
2011-
2016
PPRU
PNBEPH
POAAPs ≈
POAs
PGRHs
PCQAs
PNUEA
EU
Roadmap
to Low
Carbon
Economy
2050
Goals
Energy /
Climate
20-20-20
…TourismForest Fishery
Water
Resources
Management
….
Sustainable
Production and
Consumption
Low Carbon
Economy
Circular
Economy
Climate Change
Pressure on resources
and biodiversity loss
Economic and
Financial Crisis
Green Growth
Sustainable
Development
Agriculture
Waste
Management
Construction
Energy
Production and
Distribution
Industry (Energy
Efficiency)
Transport
Europe
2020
Strategy
Millennium
Development
Goals
Global
Green
New Deal
IPCC
Reports
Kyoto
Protocol
and post-
Kyoto
Astana
2011
Rio+20
POEM
PANCD PNDFCI
ENE 2020 PNAEE
ENCNB
ENF
PNR
PENDR»
PRODER
MoU e
revisões
QREN»
QEC (POs)
PNPBet
all
PNPOT»
PROTs
PEAASAR
PNA
PERSUII
PESGRI/
PNAPRI
PNGR
2011-
2020
PENT
PNAAS
PNPCDO
PNS
PET
Management of
Air and Noise
PNAC
2020
ENAAC
PAPVL
2020
PAQA /
PMQA
REA
RNBC
2050 ENDS
2015 /
PIENDS
Source: António Alvarenga, December 2012 25
António Alvarenga 26
A Commitment to Green Growth: why?
GLOBAL CHALLENGES
→ Climate crisis
The effects of climate change in Portugal according to the Fifth Report of
the IPCC will be considerably higher than the European average, especially
when it comes to the coastline and water resources
→ Deterioration and scarcity of water resources
→ Demographic effect on resources
the demographic effect will lead to an increase in the consumption, by
2030, of energy (45%), water (30%) and food (50%)
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
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António Alvarenga 27
Green Economy in Europe and the world
→ Green economy represents 4 trillion euros worldwide and is growing 4% per year
→ green sectors accounted for 2.5% of the EU’s total GDP in 2010 and are expected
to grow around 30% a year up to 2025.
→ Investment in clean energies totaled 300 billion dollars, with the EU and China
responsible for 25% each.
→ Investment in energy generation infrastructures and networks is expected to reach
48 trillion dollars by 2035 (7 trillion dollars of this investment is expected to be for
electricity grids; 6 trillion for renewable energy; 1 trillion for nuclear power).
→ The EU will have to invest in infrastructures (1 trillion euros in by 2020; 2.5 trillion
by 2025).
→ Green jobs have shown remarkable resistance to the recession. They grew 20%
during the recent European recession. In Portugal green employment grew by 5%
between 2012 and 2013.
→ If the EU sets the goal of increasing the productivity of resources by 30% until 2030,
this will add 1% of GDP and 2 million jobs in the EU.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
António Alvarenga 28
A Commitment to Green Growth: why?
The urgent need to overcome the paradox Portugal has been in for decades:
A high potential for talent, resources and infrastructures coupled with very
significant and persisting structural problems
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The implementation of a post-troika vision for long-term development in
Portugal is crucial, following the completion of the Financial Adjustment
Programme (FAP).
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António Alvarenga 29
The Green Growth Commitment
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
We have abundant, diverse
renewable energy resources.
This places us in a position to
achieve a target of 31%
renewables in gross final energy
consumption by 2020 (25.7%
in 2013, meaning 57.4% of
electricity comes from
renewable sources).
But we are still highly energy-
dependent (73.9% in 2013, the
lowest figure of the last 20
years) and the energy intensity
of our GDP is still very large.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
António Alvarenga 30
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
In 2014, the Climate Change
Performance Index (CCPI) rated
Portugal the fourth best country
in the world in terms of climate
policy.
But we were also warned that
we were more vulnerable to
the effects of climate change
than the European average.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
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António Alvarenga 31
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
Portugal is one of Europe’s
richest countries in terms of
biodiversity. The Natura
Network and protected areas
cover one fifth of the country ,
25% of our municipalities and
one third of the population.
However, local residents are
not benefiting enough from the
economic value of biodiversity.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
António Alvarenga 32
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
Infrastructures have developed
substantially. Around 95% of
the population has access to
mains water supply and 80% to
wastewater treatment.
Even so, losses in the water
supply system average 35%.
Furthermore, operations are
economically and financially
unsustainable with high tariff
deficits and debts owed by
municipalities. There are also
significant inequalities between
prices of services in inland and
coastal regions.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
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António Alvarenga 33
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
The Portuguese coastal areas
cocentrate 80% of the
population and are of high
environmental and economic
value.
However, 14% of the coast is
artificial, 25% is suffering from
erosion and 67% is at risk of
land loss.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
António Alvarenga 34
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
Waste dumps disappeared
many years ago.
But 43% of urban waste is still
sent to landfills . Use of plastic
bags is very high.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
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Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
We have considerable skills in
the construction sector.
But only 10% of the
construction activity is
concerned with urban
rehabilitation. The European
average is 37%.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
António Alvarenga 36
Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints
Spatial planning policies and
instruments have played an
essential role in regulation of
land use in recent decades.
We have many overlapping
plans for the same area that
communicate with each other
inefficiently. This has generated
inefficiency and inequality,
reduced transparency and
competitiveness and made
people wary of decision-making
processes.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
The Green Growth Commitment
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António Alvarenga 37
The Coalition for Green Growth
…coalition of stakeholders, gathering representatives from five sectors:
→ Banking and Financial Sector;
→ Associations, NGO’s and Foundations;
→ Business and Professionals Associations
→ Higher Education Institutions and Research and Development Centers
→ State and Public Administration.
In addition to those meetings several sectoral reunions with peer reviewers
took place to establish and validate the goals, targets, initiatives in ten pillars
identified in the Strategy.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
PUBLIC CONSULTATION PROCESS
• Prepare the future, ensuring flexibility in solutions and stability in the vision and
in the commitment;
• Transcend the short-term horizon;
• Ensure the co-responsibility of stakeholders;
• Put Portugal at the forefront of the new global cycle in which economy and
environment are mutually reinforcing.
The process of Public Discussion for the Green Growth Commitment represented a starting
point for participatory prioritization in order to generate solutions to:
• Was held between 15th September 2014 and 15th January 2015.
• Had a wide participation through the www.crescimento.verde.gov.pt webpage and social
networks.
• 10 thematic conferences were held, on the initiative of MAOTE, organized by members
of the Coalition for Green Growth, also transmitted online, having taken place throughout
the territory of continental Portugal.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
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PUBLIC CONSULTATION PROCESS
• One conference for each theme: Water, Sea, Mobility and Transport, Waste, Cities and
Territory, Agriculture and Forestry, Energy, Tourism, Industry and Biodiversity and
Ecosystem Services.
• This series of conferences provided thematic discussions of the Commitment’s content as
well as other matters, and initiatives to amend or include in the final document.
• Discussions were particularly rich and enabled a broad discussion of the subjects of Green
Growth, with the presence of very important economic stakeholders for each of the themes.
• About 1500 participants and 91 speakers were present.
2014
Water PPA-Parceria Portuguesa para a Água 21 October Lisboa
Sea Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian 27 October Lisboa
Transports GEOTA - Grupo de Estudos de Ordenamento do Território e Ambiente 07 de November Setúbal
Waste AEPSA - Associação das Empresas Portuguesas para o Sector do Ambiente 11 November Leiria
Cities and Territory CCP-Confederão do Comércio e Serviços de Portugal 18 November Viseu
Agriculture and Forestry
CAP - Agricultores de Portugal e CONFAGRI-Confederação Nacional das Cooperativas
Agrícolas e do Crédito Agrícola de Portugal
28 November Santarém
Energy APE - Associação Portuguesa de Energia 02 December Porto
Tourism CTP - Confederação do Turismo Português 16 December Faro
Industry AEP - Associação Empresarial de Portugal 19 December Porto
2015
Biodiversity QUERCUS - Associação Nacional de Conservação da Natureza 09 January Évora
THEME ORGANIZATION DATE CITY
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
PUBLIC CONSULTATION PROCESS
• In this 4 month period there were other conferences and events for dissemination and
discussion, on the initiative of members of the Coalition, contributing to a broader
promotion of the Green Growth Commitment.
• 75 written contributions were received and considered, from several Coalition entities,
from outside the Coalition and also from individual persons.
• The GGC public consultation process featured a broad participation,
reflecting a high mobilization for green growth. The discussion and reflection
that occurred have consolidated the recommended vision, contributing
greatly to improve the GGC and respective support document, giving
strength to the initiatives and, above all, strengthening the commitment of
social actors to green growth.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
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António Alvarenga 41
The Green Growth Commitment
41
Foster green economic
growth in Portugal
with a national impact
and international
visibility
• By stimulating
green economic
activities
• By fostering the
efficient use of
resources
• By contributing to
sustainability
The initiatives set out in the commitment are expected to
contribute to sustainable growth in Portugal by creating
value based on the economy-environment binomial,
promoting the country’s competitiveness and international
position as a world reference in green growth.
Focus on highly green economic activities with a national
and/or international impact which contribute to increasing
GDP and job creation.
Optimized resource management aimed at increasing
productivity, maximizing resource use (e.g. material
efficiency, energy efficiency, water efficiency, eco-design,
urban rehabilitation)
Focus on stimulating activities that protect the
environment, for example by decreasing CO2 emissions,
increasing renewable energy production, improving air and
water quality and enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem
services.
VISION
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
António Alvarenga 42
Selective
Investments in
strategic areas
Boost
resources and
talents
Integration and
articulation of
planning
instruments
Align with
international
trends and new
development
paradigms
New cycle of
structural
reforms in
Portugal
Green Growth
Commitment’s
Strategic
Vision
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
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1. INCREASE GREEN GVA
From 1,500 million euros in 2013 to 2,100 million euros in 2020 and 3,400 million euros in
2030
2. INCREASE GREEN EXPORTS
From 560 million euros in 2013 to 790 million euros in 2020 and 1,280 million euros in 2030
3. CREATE GREEN JOBS
From 75,500 people employed in 2013 to 100,400 people employed in 2020 and 151,000
people employed in 2030
4. INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY OF MATERIALS
From 1.14 euros GDP/kg material consumed in 2013 to 1.17 in 2020 and 1.72 in 2030
(ensuring the European growth target of 30% by 2030)
5. INCREASE THE INCORPORATION OF WASTE IN THE ECONOMY
From 56% in 2012 to 68% in 2020 and 86% in 2030
6. FOCUS ON URBAN REHABILITATION
From rehabilitation weighing 10.3% of total construction in 2013, to weighing 17% in 2020
and 23% in 2030
7. IMPROVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY
Energy intensity: from 129 toe/M€ GDP in 2013, to 122 toe/M€ GDP in 2020 and 101
toe/M€ GDP in 2030
8. IMPROVE WATER EFFICIENCY
From 35% of unaccounted-for water in 2012, to a maximum of 25% in 2020 and 20% in
2030
9. INCREASE PUBLIC TRANSPORT USE
From 10,894 million pkm carried by public transport in 2013, to 12,528 million in 2020 and
15,296 million in 2030
10. REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS
From 87.7 Mt CO2 in 2005 to 68.0-72.0 Mt CO2 in 2020 and 52.7-61.5 Mt CO2 in 2030
(contingent on the European negotiations results)
11. INCREASE SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
From renewable energy weighing 25.7% of final energy consumption in 2013, to weighing
31% in 2020 and 40% in 2030
12. IMPROVE CONDITION OF WATER BODIES
From 52% of national water bodies’ quality rated "Good” or higher in 2010, to 79.8% in
2021 and 100% in 2027
13. IMPROVE AIR QUALITY
From an average of 14 days with an Air Quality Index of “poor” or “bad” in 2013, to a
maximum average of 9 days by 2020 and a maximum average of 2 days by 2030
14. VALORIZE BIODIVERSITY
Improve the conservation status of species and habitats protected under the Habitat
Directive: from 81 species and 46 habitats with “favourable” conservation status per
biogeographical region in 2012, to 96 species and 53 habitats with “favourable”
conservation status per biogeographical region by 2030, ensuring that, in 2020, all existing
species and habitats retain or improve their conservation status
A POST-PROGRAMME OF
FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE VISION
_________________
A NEW GLOBAL PARADIGM
OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
LONG
TERM
COMMITMENT BASED ON
POLICIES, OBJECTIVES
AND TARGETS
GGC
→ ENVIRONMENT
→ ENERGY AND CLIMATE
→ SPATIAL PLANNING
→ SEA
→ TRANSPORT
→ URBAN RENEWAL
→ HOUSING
→ SCIENCE AND
INNOVATION
→ AGRICULTURE
→ TOURISM
14 QUANTIFIED
GOALS
10
KEY
SECTORS
WATER
WASTE
AGRICULTURE
AND FORESTRY
ENERGY
AND
CLIMATE
MOBILITY AND
TRANSPORT
MANUFACTURING
AND EXTRACTIVE
INDUSTRIES
BIODIVERSITY AND
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
CITIES AND
TERRITORY
SEA
TOURISM
111 INITIATIVES
6CATALYSTS
INFORMATION AND
PARTICIPATION
TAXATION
RESEARCH,
DEVELOPMENT
AND INNOVATION
INTERNATIONAL
PROMOTION
FUNDING
PUBLIC
PROCUREMENT
STABILITY
AND PREDICTABILITY
STRUCTURAL
REFORMS
DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES (1/3)
2020 2030 CAGR[ 1] 2030
> Increase "green" GVA
(billion euros)
> Increase "green" exports
(billion euros)
> Create "green" jobs
(thousands of people employed)
Racional
GROWTH
Stimulate
green
activity
sectors
(+5.0%)
> Develop the green economy to obtain competitiveness
gains greater than the national average
0.57 0.79
Objetive and Indicator
2009/13
Average
2013
1.28 (+5.0%)
> Green exports grow th rate equated to the increase in
green GVA
1.7 2.1
> Double the number of jobs by 2030(+4.2%)151.0100.477.1
Goals for 2020 and 2030
3.41.5
0.56
75.5
[1] The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is a geometric average of annual growth rates. The CAGR, also referred to as a “ smoothed” rate, measures growth as if it had occurred at a stable rate on an annual compound basis. The reference value is 2013,
subject to the exceptions indicated.
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
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DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES (2/3)
2020 2030 CAGR[ 1] 2030
Goals for 2020 and 2030
Racional
Objetive and Indicator
2009/13
Average
2013
> Increase productivity of materials
(€ GDP[ 2] /Kg de materiais consumidos)
> Increase the incorporation of waste in the
economy
(rate of w aste incorporation in the economy)[ 3]
> Focus on urban rehabilitation
(proportion of total construction)
> Improve energy efficiency
> Compliance w ith the PNAEE (National Energy Efficiency
Action Plan) by 2020
(Energy intensity - toe/M€ GDP[ 6] ) > 30% reduction on baseline energy in 2030
> Improve water efficiency
(unaccounted-for w ater/w ater issued to the urban
supply netw ork)
> Increase public transport use
(million pkm carried by public transport)
10,894n.a. 12,528 15,296 (+2.0%)
> Compliance w ith the PETI3+ by 2020
> Transfer from individual transport to collective
transport
20%
50%[4]
> Comply w ith the PNUEA (National Programme for the
Efficient Use of Water) 2020 goal - real losses < 20% in
2020)
[unaccounted-for w ater = real losses + apparent losses
+ authorised non-invoiced consumption]
23%
> Increase of about 7.5% from 2013 to 2020, and of
3.1% from 2020 to 2030 in the amount of renovation
w ithin the construction sector. Quicker grow th betw een
2013 and 2020 than in the 2020-2030 decade is
assumed
n.a. 25%
17%
> Align w ith the goals of the National Waste Management
Plan (PNGR), the principle of circular economy, efficiency
in resource use and reducing environmental impacts
(ensuring the European grow th objective of 30% by
0.96 1.17 1.72 (+3.5%)
(-3.1%)
8.4%
(-1.4%)101122129
> Consider w aste as a material or energy resource
promoting the closure of the cycle (circular economy)
and the diversion of landfill; compliance w ith National
Waste Management Plan (PNGR)
86%68%
Promote
efficient
use of
resources
EFFICIENCY
1.14
56%[5]
10.3%
129
(+4.9%)
(+2.3%)
35% [ 7]
n.a. not available
[7] 2012.
[2] GDP evolution according to the average value of macroeconomic scenarios for Portugal as shown in the 2014 REA. They provide an update to the scenarios considered in the 2050 RNBC (National Low Carbon Plan) (APA, 2012).
[3] recovered waste (excluding energy recovery)/waste produced.
[4] 2008-2012 Average.
[5] 2012.
[6] GDP growth according to the average value of macroeconomic scenarios for Portugal as shown in the 2014 REA. They provide an update to the scenarios considered in the 2050 RNBC (National Low Carbon Plan) (APA, 2012).
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES (3/3)
2020 2030 CAGR[ 1] 2030
Goals for 2020 and 2030
Racional
Objetive and Indicator
2009/13
Average
2013
> Reduce CO2 emissions
(Mt CO2 eq.)
> Consistency w ith EU objectives for 2030 and w ith the
emission reductions reported in the background w ork of
the PNAC (National Programme for Climate Change) and
in the 2050 EU Roadmap
> Reduction betw een 18% (72.0 Mt CO2 eq.) and 23%
(68.0 Mt CO2 eq.) in 2020 vs 2005 (2005 = 87.8 Mt CO2
eq.)
> Reduction betw een 30% (61.5 Mt CO2 eq.) and 40%
(52.7 Mt CO2 eq.) in 2030 vs 2005 (2005 value = 87.8 Mt
CO2 eq.), contingent on the European negotiations results
> Increase share of renewable energy
> Compliance w ith the PNAER (National Renew able
Energy Action Plan) by 2020
(% in gross final energy consumption) > Consistency w ith the goal set out in the PT proposal
for the 2030 Energy and Climate Package, contingent on
the European negotiations results
> Improve condition of water bodies
(% of w ater bodies w ith “Good” or higher quality)
> Improve air quality
(Average number of days w ith “poor” or “bad”
AQI, in urban areas)
> Valorize biodiversity
(Improve the conservation status of species and
habitats protected under the Habitat Directive: from
81 species and 46 habitats w ith “favourable”
conservation status per biogeographical region in
2012, to 96 species and 53 habitats w ith
“favourable” conservation status per
biogeographical region by 2030, ensuring that, in
2020, all existing species and habitats retain or
improve their conservation status)
> Compliance w ith the Habitats Directive
> Compliance w ith the European Biodiversity Strategy for
2020
> Compliance w ith the National Strategy for the
Conservation of Nature and Biodiversity for 2020 (under
review )
n.a.
18
100%
[ 12]
2
n.a.
68.0-
72.0
68.9 [ 9]
25.7%
52% [ 10]
96
and
53
Contribute
to
sustainabi
lity
SUSTAINABILITY
72.4 [ 8]
24.8%
52.7-
61.5
40%
81
and
46 [13]
(-0.6/-1.5%)
(+2.6%)
(+3.3%)
(-10.9%)
(+0.9% e
+0.8%)
> Compliance w ith the Water Framew ork Directive
(contingent on the negotiation developments in the EU
regarding implementation of the WFD)
81
and
46
> Compliance w ith the objectives set out in the CAFE
Directive and w ith the Clean Air for Europe Programme
31%
79.8%
[ 11]
914
[8] 2008-2012 Average.
[9] 2012.
[10] 2010.
[11] 2021.
[12] 2027.
[13] Report Data for the 2007-2012 period.
n.a. not available
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
16/10/2015
24
INITIATIVES: WATER (1/3)
Ref. Initiative Performance Indicators
Framework (F) and Focal
Point (FP)
Also relevant
for
WATER
1
Reduce pressures on water
bodies by identifying those that
affect their good condition and
give priority to the implementation
of economically sustainable
measures to reduce them
» Increase to 72% the water bodies with
condition rated “good” or higher, in 2020
» Reach 100% of water bodies with condition
rated “good” or higher, in 2030
F: PO SEUR 2022/2023
target; PDR 2020 along with
the PGRH 2015-2020; WFD
and Water Law; PGRH 2015-
2020/WFD and PNA
FP: APA (Portuguese
Environment Agency)
Agriculture and
forestry; Waste;
Manufacturing and
extractive industry;
Biodiversity and
ecosystem
services; Cities and
territory; RD&I
WATER
2
Increase the water reuse rate,
meeting economic, technical and
environmental criteria
» Increase the water reuse rate F: PGRH 2015-2020/WFD;
PNUEA; PENSAAR 2020;
Horizon 2020; European
Innovation Partnership on
Water (EIP)
FP: ERSAR (Regulatory
Authority for Water and
Waste)
Waste; Agriculture
and
forestry;
Manufacturing
and extractive
industry;
Cities and territory;
RD&I
WATER
3
Encourage the reduction of water
losses in water adduction and
distribution systems (predict the
risk associated with leaks and
intervene in terms of asset
management)
» Reduce physical and commercial water
losses
» By 2020 reduce physical losses to less
than 20% in the urban sector, 35% in the
agricultural sector and 15% in the industrial
sector
» By 2030 reduce physical losses to less
than 16% in the urban sector, 32% in the
agricultural sector and 10% in the industrial
sector
F: PENSAAR 2020
measures; PGRH 2015-
2020/WFD; PDR 2020;
PNUEA measures and
targets
FP: ERSAR (Regulatory
Authority for Water and
Waste)
Agriculture and
forestry; Cities and
territory; R&D&I
www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
António Alvarenga 48
• www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
• http://www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt/wp-
content/uploads/2014/10/CrescimentoVerde_ing_v_pq_bx.pdf [short english
version]
• http://www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt/wp-
content/uploads/2014/10/CrescimentoVerde_EN_dig_290815.pdf [full english
version]
16/10/2015
25
António Alvarenga 49
Other References
APA, 2012: “Roteiro Nacional de Baixo Carbono 2050: Opções de transição para uma economia de baixo carbono competitiva em 2050”,
http://www.apambiente.pt/_zdata/DESTAQUES/2012/RNBC_COMPLETO_2050_V04.pdf
Carlos Figueiredo; Fátima Azevedo; Jorge Catarino: “Alternativas de Medição do Desempenho das Economias na Óptica da Sustentabilidade”, in
Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol. 15−2008, pp. 207-243,
http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/1404/Medicao_Desempenho.pdf
Comissão Europeia - Estratégia Europa 2020, http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm
Comissão Europeia - Estratégia Europa 2020: Indicadores Europa 2020,
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/europe_2020_indicators/headline_indicators
Comissão Europeia, 2011. “Roteiro de transição para uma economia hipocarbónica competitiva em 2050”, COM (2011) 112 final, http://eur-
lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0112:FIN:PT:PDF
DPP, 2010. DPP Scanning DOC’s: D28_Sustentabilidade
Europe 2020 targets: climate change and energy, http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/themes/16_energy_and_ghg.pdf
Fátima Azevedo in Cenários: Tendências e Futuros na Economia Global, nº 14 junho 2010
GNH index – Gross National Happiness índex, http://www.grossnationalhappiness.com/
IPPC - Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas, http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
OECD - Your Better Life Index, http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/
OECD Factbook 2011-2012: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics
Rio+20, 2012. Beyond the GDP: toward social and environmental sustainability indicators,
http://www.uncsd2012.org/index.php?page=view&type=1000&nr=625&menu=126
Sheng Fulai, 2010. “Green Economy – Conceptual Issues”, UNEP,
http://www.rona.unep.org/documents/partnerships/GreenEconomy/GE_Conceptual_Issues.pdf
UN, 2011. Economic Commission for Europe - Seventh “Environment for Europe” Ministerial Conference, Astana ,
http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/documents/2011/ece/ece.astana.conf.2011.5.e.pdf
UNEP, 2011, Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication,
http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/ger_final_dec_2011/Green%20EconomyReport_Final_Dec2011.pdf
UNEP: Do Rio à Rio+20, http://www.onu.org.br/rio20/alem-da-rio20-avancando-rumo-a-um-futuro-sustentavel/
United Nations - Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/
United Nations Environment Program, http://www.unep.org/
United Nations, 2012. “The future we want”, General Assembly, 24 July, p.1-53,
http://www.un.org/en/ga/president/66/Letters/PDF/Rio+20%20Draft%20Resolution-24%20July.pdf
United Nations: COP17 - Report of the Conference of the Parties on its seventeenth session, held in Durban from 28 November to 11 December
2011, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/cop17/eng/09a01.pdf
Z_punk (2007): Megatrends, http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/englisch/D_Downloads/2007_20_most_important_megatrends.pdf

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participantes_Economic Strategies for Environment_The Portuguese Green Growth Strategy in the Global Context_121015

  • 1. 16/10/2015 1 António Alvarenga 1 ECONOMIC STRATEGIES FOR THE ENVIRONMENT: THE PORTUGUESE GREEN GROWTH STRATEGY IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT António Alvarenga IST/CEG-IST, ISEG, ALVA R&C António Alvarenga 2 Index • The twin challenge: plotting human development and ecological footprint • Sustainable development • Megatrends • ‘Green’ Economy: the concept • ‘Green’ Economy / ‘Green’ Growth: A Family of Concepts • The Green Growth Commitment
  • 2. 16/10/2015 2 António Alvarenga 3 Twin challenge (UNEP 2012, GEO5 Global Environment Outlook) “a good life” António Alvarenga 4 In response to the global economic crisis, the concept of ‘Green’ Economy emerged, as a tool for sustainable optimization of resources and job creation. This concept has been gaining traction and may become relevant in the search for solutions to the multiple global challenges Portugal faces today, in the context of the structural transformation of its economy. Sustainable development
  • 3. 16/10/2015 3 António Alvarenga 5 Sustainable development – a definition The concept of sustainable development is reflected in a pattern of development that "seeks to meet the needs of the present without compromising those of future generations." This concept contains two essential aspects: • The concept of needs. In particular, the needs of the poorest countries, to which priority should be given; • The idea that there are limitations imposed by technology’s state of the art, social organization and the environment's ability to meet present and future needs. Source: Brundtland Report 1987 and DPP 2010: SD28 - Sustentabilidade Sustainable development António Alvarenga 6 Sustainable development - a vision? Sustainable development is simultaneously: • A concept - the way it changes the world’s prevailing perception towards a more holistic and balanced approach; • A process - how its principles are integrated over time and space, in all decisions; • A final goal or target - dealing with the specific problems of resource depletion, health care, social exclusion, poverty, unemployment, among others. Source: DPP 2010: SD28 - Sustentabilidade Sustainable development
  • 4. 16/10/2015 4 António Alvarenga 7 Sustainable development - characteristics The general principles related to sustainability include: → Intergenerational balance, allowing future generations to have at least the same chances in environmental terms than the present generation (if not better); → Decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation, increasing economic efficiency so that sustainable development is less resource intensive; → Integration of all pillars: environment, economy, society, culture and politics; → Focus on adaptive capacity and resilience of ecosystems; → Prevention of irreversible damage to ecosystems and human health; → Guarantee of equity, avoiding unnecessary and high environmental costs to the most vulnerable populations; → Acceptance of responsibility for the effects globally caused to the environment; → Growing environmental awareness and education, embodied in problem identification and in research and development of solutions. Source: DPP 2010: SD28 - Sustentabilidade Sustainable development António Alvarenga 8 Megatrends » Megatrends have been and will remain key determinants of prosperity and peace for decades or even centuries... » The recognition of the dialectic between economic growth and sustainable development is crucial. Demographic and environmental megatrends, for example, have deep implications for (de)growth!
  • 5. 16/10/2015 5 9 Megatrends Megatrends are long-term processes of transformation with a broad scope and a dramatic impact. They are considered to be powerful factors which shape the future. Adapted from: Holger Glockner, Andreas Neef Z_trenddatabase - An Essential Tool for Strategy and Future Work in Companies Z_punkt GmbH - The Foresight Company Cologne, Germany. 10
  • 7. 16/10/2015 7 António Alvarenga 13 http://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/scenarios/global-megatends/global-megatends http://www.eea.europa.eu/soer-2015/global/action-download-pdf António Alvarenga 14 Global Megatrends by the EEA - European Environment Agency: SOCIAL 1) Diverging global population trends; 2) Towards a more urban world; 3) Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics; TECHNOLOGICAL 4) Accelerating technological change; ECONOMIC 5) Continued economic growth? 6) An increasingly multipolar world; 7) Intensified global competition for resources; ENVIRONMENTAL 8) Growing pressures on ecosystems; 9) Increasingly severe consequences of climate change; 10) Increasing environmental pollution; POLITICAL 11) Diversifying approaches to governance.
  • 8. 16/10/2015 8 15 Example Competition for Knowledge and Innovation Emerging Economies – Asia Pressure on Hydric Resources and Greenhouse Gases Emissions Oil and Gas Supply Restrictions Population Ageing António Alvarenga 16 Green Economy: the concept The concept of “green economy” has gained traction as the world has been searching for solutions to multiple global challenges. It emerged from the Green Economy Initiative launched by the United Nations Environment Programme, in 2008. “Green Economy” should not be considered a new paradigm but rather a means to operationalize sustainable development, through the urgent need to reconcile economic growth and poverty reduction with environmental conservation.
  • 9. 16/10/2015 9 António Alvarenga 17 Green Economy: the concept Search and implementation of environmentally sustainable processes. Generation of new economic and social opportunities. Demand for environmentally friendly goods and services that promote social equity and welfare. This concept of ‘Green’ Economy complements and extends the scope of the classical concept: the focus is no longer exclusively centered on punishment for negative environmental behaviors, but also on stimulating production, consumption and trade of environmental and environmentally friendly goods and services (Sheng Fulai, 2010). António Alvarenga 18 Green Economy: the concept Green Growth/Green Economy According to OECD, ‘Green’ Growth is about fostering growth and economic development while ensuring that natural resources continue to provide environmental services on which our well-being relies. To this end, investment and innovation should be encouraged, sustaining growth and generating new economic opportunities. UNEP defines ‘Green’ Economy as one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities.
  • 10. 16/10/2015 10 António Alvarenga 19 Green Economy: the concept The Classic concept of ‘Green’ Economy Typically understood as an economic system that is compatible with the natural environment and socially just. Integrates some fundamental concepts: the use of renewable resources within their regenerative capacity, making up for the loss of non- renewable resources, limiting pollution within the sink functions of nature, maintaining the resilience and stability of ecosystems, ensuring that the needs of future generations will be met, ensure equal distribution between rich and poor, equal treatment for women in access to resources and opportunities, decent working conditions. Governance and democracy are critical to ensure equity and social justice. António Alvarenga 20 Green Economy: the concept The Modern Concept of ‘Green’ Economy Environmental concepts are no longer seen as constraints to economic development but regarded as forces that can generate new economic opportunities – search for environmentally friendly goods and services that ensure well-being. This concept complements and extends the scope of the classical concept: along with punishment for negative environmental behaviours economic agents are encouraged to produce, consume and trade environmental and environmentally friendly goods and services. This instrumental perspective recognises that it is through investment (public and private) in innovation, technology, infrastructure and institutions, that economies achieve fundamental structural change.
  • 11. 16/10/2015 11 António Alvarenga 21 Green Economy: the concept Ten key sectors to boost green growth:  Agriculture;  Fisheries;  Forestry;  Building construction;  Energy supply;  Industry and energy efficiency;  Tourism;  Transportation;  Waste and water management. António Alvarenga 22 Green Economy: the concept A Family of Concepts Related to ‘Green’ Economy SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPTION AND PRODUCTION Defined in line with the concept of sustainable development, puts the focus on inter-generational equity in meeting basic needs and improving quality of life while minimising the use of resources and the generation of waste and pollutants over the full life cycle of products. The policy of the three R's is also crucial in this scope. LOW CARBON ECONOMY Can be analysed as a result of the operationalization of the concept of green economy: investment in renewable energy provides new forms of income and employment and reduces carbon emissions. CIRCULAR ECONOMY An economy that reduces the consumption of resources and the generation of wastes, implementing the policy of the three R's: Reduce, Reuse and Recycle throughout the production, supply and consumption processes.
  • 12. 16/10/2015 12 António Alvarenga 23 Green Economy/ Green Growth: A Family of Concepts António Alvarenga 24 Three drivers: • Two Megatrends “Climate change” “Pressure on resources and loss of biodiversity” • A Crucial Uncertainty "(Duration and intensity of the) economic and financial crisis“ Tips of a triangle with a base composed of sectors whose evolution operationalizes approaches around the concepts of ‘Green’ Economy / ‘Green’ Growth, with the final purpose of achieving sustainable development. Green Economy/ Green Growth: A Family of Concepts
  • 13. 16/10/2015 13 POEs PERH 2011- 2016 PPRU PNBEPH POAAPs ≈ POAs PGRHs PCQAs PNUEA EU Roadmap to Low Carbon Economy 2050 Goals Energy / Climate 20-20-20 …TourismForest Fishery Water Resources Management …. Sustainable Production and Consumption Low Carbon Economy Circular Economy Climate Change Pressure on resources and biodiversity loss Economic and Financial Crisis Green Growth Sustainable Development Agriculture Waste Management Construction Energy Production and Distribution Industry (Energy Efficiency) Transport Europe 2020 Strategy Millennium Development Goals Global Green New Deal IPCC Reports Kyoto Protocol and post- Kyoto Astana 2011 Rio+20 POEM PANCD PNDFCI ENE 2020 PNAEE ENCNB ENF PNR PENDR» PRODER MoU e revisões QREN» QEC (POs) PNPBet all PNPOT» PROTs PEAASAR PNA PERSUII PESGRI/ PNAPRI PNGR 2011- 2020 PENT PNAAS PNPCDO PNS PET Management of Air and Noise PNAC 2020 ENAAC PAPVL 2020 PAQA / PMQA REA RNBC 2050 ENDS 2015 / PIENDS Source: António Alvarenga, December 2012 25 António Alvarenga 26 A Commitment to Green Growth: why? GLOBAL CHALLENGES → Climate crisis The effects of climate change in Portugal according to the Fifth Report of the IPCC will be considerably higher than the European average, especially when it comes to the coastline and water resources → Deterioration and scarcity of water resources → Demographic effect on resources the demographic effect will lead to an increase in the consumption, by 2030, of energy (45%), water (30%) and food (50%) www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
  • 14. 16/10/2015 14 António Alvarenga 27 Green Economy in Europe and the world → Green economy represents 4 trillion euros worldwide and is growing 4% per year → green sectors accounted for 2.5% of the EU’s total GDP in 2010 and are expected to grow around 30% a year up to 2025. → Investment in clean energies totaled 300 billion dollars, with the EU and China responsible for 25% each. → Investment in energy generation infrastructures and networks is expected to reach 48 trillion dollars by 2035 (7 trillion dollars of this investment is expected to be for electricity grids; 6 trillion for renewable energy; 1 trillion for nuclear power). → The EU will have to invest in infrastructures (1 trillion euros in by 2020; 2.5 trillion by 2025). → Green jobs have shown remarkable resistance to the recession. They grew 20% during the recent European recession. In Portugal green employment grew by 5% between 2012 and 2013. → If the EU sets the goal of increasing the productivity of resources by 30% until 2030, this will add 1% of GDP and 2 million jobs in the EU. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment António Alvarenga 28 A Commitment to Green Growth: why? The urgent need to overcome the paradox Portugal has been in for decades: A high potential for talent, resources and infrastructures coupled with very significant and persisting structural problems www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The implementation of a post-troika vision for long-term development in Portugal is crucial, following the completion of the Financial Adjustment Programme (FAP).
  • 15. 16/10/2015 15 António Alvarenga 29 The Green Growth Commitment Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints We have abundant, diverse renewable energy resources. This places us in a position to achieve a target of 31% renewables in gross final energy consumption by 2020 (25.7% in 2013, meaning 57.4% of electricity comes from renewable sources). But we are still highly energy- dependent (73.9% in 2013, the lowest figure of the last 20 years) and the energy intensity of our GDP is still very large. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt António Alvarenga 30 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints In 2014, the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI) rated Portugal the fourth best country in the world in terms of climate policy. But we were also warned that we were more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than the European average. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment
  • 16. 16/10/2015 16 António Alvarenga 31 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints Portugal is one of Europe’s richest countries in terms of biodiversity. The Natura Network and protected areas cover one fifth of the country , 25% of our municipalities and one third of the population. However, local residents are not benefiting enough from the economic value of biodiversity. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment António Alvarenga 32 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints Infrastructures have developed substantially. Around 95% of the population has access to mains water supply and 80% to wastewater treatment. Even so, losses in the water supply system average 35%. Furthermore, operations are economically and financially unsustainable with high tariff deficits and debts owed by municipalities. There are also significant inequalities between prices of services in inland and coastal regions. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment
  • 17. 16/10/2015 17 António Alvarenga 33 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints The Portuguese coastal areas cocentrate 80% of the population and are of high environmental and economic value. However, 14% of the coast is artificial, 25% is suffering from erosion and 67% is at risk of land loss. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment António Alvarenga 34 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints Waste dumps disappeared many years ago. But 43% of urban waste is still sent to landfills . Use of plastic bags is very high. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment
  • 18. 16/10/2015 18 António Alvarenga 35 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints We have considerable skills in the construction sector. But only 10% of the construction activity is concerned with urban rehabilitation. The European average is 37%. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment António Alvarenga 36 Green growth in Portugal: high potential versus structural constraints Spatial planning policies and instruments have played an essential role in regulation of land use in recent decades. We have many overlapping plans for the same area that communicate with each other inefficiently. This has generated inefficiency and inequality, reduced transparency and competitiveness and made people wary of decision-making processes. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt The Green Growth Commitment
  • 19. 16/10/2015 19 António Alvarenga 37 The Coalition for Green Growth …coalition of stakeholders, gathering representatives from five sectors: → Banking and Financial Sector; → Associations, NGO’s and Foundations; → Business and Professionals Associations → Higher Education Institutions and Research and Development Centers → State and Public Administration. In addition to those meetings several sectoral reunions with peer reviewers took place to establish and validate the goals, targets, initiatives in ten pillars identified in the Strategy. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt PUBLIC CONSULTATION PROCESS • Prepare the future, ensuring flexibility in solutions and stability in the vision and in the commitment; • Transcend the short-term horizon; • Ensure the co-responsibility of stakeholders; • Put Portugal at the forefront of the new global cycle in which economy and environment are mutually reinforcing. The process of Public Discussion for the Green Growth Commitment represented a starting point for participatory prioritization in order to generate solutions to: • Was held between 15th September 2014 and 15th January 2015. • Had a wide participation through the www.crescimento.verde.gov.pt webpage and social networks. • 10 thematic conferences were held, on the initiative of MAOTE, organized by members of the Coalition for Green Growth, also transmitted online, having taken place throughout the territory of continental Portugal. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
  • 20. 16/10/2015 20 PUBLIC CONSULTATION PROCESS • One conference for each theme: Water, Sea, Mobility and Transport, Waste, Cities and Territory, Agriculture and Forestry, Energy, Tourism, Industry and Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. • This series of conferences provided thematic discussions of the Commitment’s content as well as other matters, and initiatives to amend or include in the final document. • Discussions were particularly rich and enabled a broad discussion of the subjects of Green Growth, with the presence of very important economic stakeholders for each of the themes. • About 1500 participants and 91 speakers were present. 2014 Water PPA-Parceria Portuguesa para a Água 21 October Lisboa Sea Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian 27 October Lisboa Transports GEOTA - Grupo de Estudos de Ordenamento do Território e Ambiente 07 de November Setúbal Waste AEPSA - Associação das Empresas Portuguesas para o Sector do Ambiente 11 November Leiria Cities and Territory CCP-Confederão do Comércio e Serviços de Portugal 18 November Viseu Agriculture and Forestry CAP - Agricultores de Portugal e CONFAGRI-Confederação Nacional das Cooperativas Agrícolas e do Crédito Agrícola de Portugal 28 November Santarém Energy APE - Associação Portuguesa de Energia 02 December Porto Tourism CTP - Confederação do Turismo Português 16 December Faro Industry AEP - Associação Empresarial de Portugal 19 December Porto 2015 Biodiversity QUERCUS - Associação Nacional de Conservação da Natureza 09 January Évora THEME ORGANIZATION DATE CITY www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt PUBLIC CONSULTATION PROCESS • In this 4 month period there were other conferences and events for dissemination and discussion, on the initiative of members of the Coalition, contributing to a broader promotion of the Green Growth Commitment. • 75 written contributions were received and considered, from several Coalition entities, from outside the Coalition and also from individual persons. • The GGC public consultation process featured a broad participation, reflecting a high mobilization for green growth. The discussion and reflection that occurred have consolidated the recommended vision, contributing greatly to improve the GGC and respective support document, giving strength to the initiatives and, above all, strengthening the commitment of social actors to green growth. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
  • 21. 16/10/2015 21 António Alvarenga 41 The Green Growth Commitment 41 Foster green economic growth in Portugal with a national impact and international visibility • By stimulating green economic activities • By fostering the efficient use of resources • By contributing to sustainability The initiatives set out in the commitment are expected to contribute to sustainable growth in Portugal by creating value based on the economy-environment binomial, promoting the country’s competitiveness and international position as a world reference in green growth. Focus on highly green economic activities with a national and/or international impact which contribute to increasing GDP and job creation. Optimized resource management aimed at increasing productivity, maximizing resource use (e.g. material efficiency, energy efficiency, water efficiency, eco-design, urban rehabilitation) Focus on stimulating activities that protect the environment, for example by decreasing CO2 emissions, increasing renewable energy production, improving air and water quality and enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services. VISION www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt António Alvarenga 42 Selective Investments in strategic areas Boost resources and talents Integration and articulation of planning instruments Align with international trends and new development paradigms New cycle of structural reforms in Portugal Green Growth Commitment’s Strategic Vision www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
  • 22. 16/10/2015 22 1. INCREASE GREEN GVA From 1,500 million euros in 2013 to 2,100 million euros in 2020 and 3,400 million euros in 2030 2. INCREASE GREEN EXPORTS From 560 million euros in 2013 to 790 million euros in 2020 and 1,280 million euros in 2030 3. CREATE GREEN JOBS From 75,500 people employed in 2013 to 100,400 people employed in 2020 and 151,000 people employed in 2030 4. INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY OF MATERIALS From 1.14 euros GDP/kg material consumed in 2013 to 1.17 in 2020 and 1.72 in 2030 (ensuring the European growth target of 30% by 2030) 5. INCREASE THE INCORPORATION OF WASTE IN THE ECONOMY From 56% in 2012 to 68% in 2020 and 86% in 2030 6. FOCUS ON URBAN REHABILITATION From rehabilitation weighing 10.3% of total construction in 2013, to weighing 17% in 2020 and 23% in 2030 7. IMPROVE ENERGY EFFICIENCY Energy intensity: from 129 toe/M€ GDP in 2013, to 122 toe/M€ GDP in 2020 and 101 toe/M€ GDP in 2030 8. IMPROVE WATER EFFICIENCY From 35% of unaccounted-for water in 2012, to a maximum of 25% in 2020 and 20% in 2030 9. INCREASE PUBLIC TRANSPORT USE From 10,894 million pkm carried by public transport in 2013, to 12,528 million in 2020 and 15,296 million in 2030 10. REDUCE CO2 EMISSIONS From 87.7 Mt CO2 in 2005 to 68.0-72.0 Mt CO2 in 2020 and 52.7-61.5 Mt CO2 in 2030 (contingent on the European negotiations results) 11. INCREASE SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY From renewable energy weighing 25.7% of final energy consumption in 2013, to weighing 31% in 2020 and 40% in 2030 12. IMPROVE CONDITION OF WATER BODIES From 52% of national water bodies’ quality rated "Good” or higher in 2010, to 79.8% in 2021 and 100% in 2027 13. IMPROVE AIR QUALITY From an average of 14 days with an Air Quality Index of “poor” or “bad” in 2013, to a maximum average of 9 days by 2020 and a maximum average of 2 days by 2030 14. VALORIZE BIODIVERSITY Improve the conservation status of species and habitats protected under the Habitat Directive: from 81 species and 46 habitats with “favourable” conservation status per biogeographical region in 2012, to 96 species and 53 habitats with “favourable” conservation status per biogeographical region by 2030, ensuring that, in 2020, all existing species and habitats retain or improve their conservation status A POST-PROGRAMME OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE VISION _________________ A NEW GLOBAL PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LONG TERM COMMITMENT BASED ON POLICIES, OBJECTIVES AND TARGETS GGC → ENVIRONMENT → ENERGY AND CLIMATE → SPATIAL PLANNING → SEA → TRANSPORT → URBAN RENEWAL → HOUSING → SCIENCE AND INNOVATION → AGRICULTURE → TOURISM 14 QUANTIFIED GOALS 10 KEY SECTORS WATER WASTE AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY ENERGY AND CLIMATE MOBILITY AND TRANSPORT MANUFACTURING AND EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES BIODIVERSITY AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES CITIES AND TERRITORY SEA TOURISM 111 INITIATIVES 6CATALYSTS INFORMATION AND PARTICIPATION TAXATION RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION INTERNATIONAL PROMOTION FUNDING PUBLIC PROCUREMENT STABILITY AND PREDICTABILITY STRUCTURAL REFORMS DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES (1/3) 2020 2030 CAGR[ 1] 2030 > Increase "green" GVA (billion euros) > Increase "green" exports (billion euros) > Create "green" jobs (thousands of people employed) Racional GROWTH Stimulate green activity sectors (+5.0%) > Develop the green economy to obtain competitiveness gains greater than the national average 0.57 0.79 Objetive and Indicator 2009/13 Average 2013 1.28 (+5.0%) > Green exports grow th rate equated to the increase in green GVA 1.7 2.1 > Double the number of jobs by 2030(+4.2%)151.0100.477.1 Goals for 2020 and 2030 3.41.5 0.56 75.5 [1] The CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) is a geometric average of annual growth rates. The CAGR, also referred to as a “ smoothed” rate, measures growth as if it had occurred at a stable rate on an annual compound basis. The reference value is 2013, subject to the exceptions indicated. www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
  • 23. 16/10/2015 23 DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES (2/3) 2020 2030 CAGR[ 1] 2030 Goals for 2020 and 2030 Racional Objetive and Indicator 2009/13 Average 2013 > Increase productivity of materials (€ GDP[ 2] /Kg de materiais consumidos) > Increase the incorporation of waste in the economy (rate of w aste incorporation in the economy)[ 3] > Focus on urban rehabilitation (proportion of total construction) > Improve energy efficiency > Compliance w ith the PNAEE (National Energy Efficiency Action Plan) by 2020 (Energy intensity - toe/M€ GDP[ 6] ) > 30% reduction on baseline energy in 2030 > Improve water efficiency (unaccounted-for w ater/w ater issued to the urban supply netw ork) > Increase public transport use (million pkm carried by public transport) 10,894n.a. 12,528 15,296 (+2.0%) > Compliance w ith the PETI3+ by 2020 > Transfer from individual transport to collective transport 20% 50%[4] > Comply w ith the PNUEA (National Programme for the Efficient Use of Water) 2020 goal - real losses < 20% in 2020) [unaccounted-for w ater = real losses + apparent losses + authorised non-invoiced consumption] 23% > Increase of about 7.5% from 2013 to 2020, and of 3.1% from 2020 to 2030 in the amount of renovation w ithin the construction sector. Quicker grow th betw een 2013 and 2020 than in the 2020-2030 decade is assumed n.a. 25% 17% > Align w ith the goals of the National Waste Management Plan (PNGR), the principle of circular economy, efficiency in resource use and reducing environmental impacts (ensuring the European grow th objective of 30% by 0.96 1.17 1.72 (+3.5%) (-3.1%) 8.4% (-1.4%)101122129 > Consider w aste as a material or energy resource promoting the closure of the cycle (circular economy) and the diversion of landfill; compliance w ith National Waste Management Plan (PNGR) 86%68% Promote efficient use of resources EFFICIENCY 1.14 56%[5] 10.3% 129 (+4.9%) (+2.3%) 35% [ 7] n.a. not available [7] 2012. [2] GDP evolution according to the average value of macroeconomic scenarios for Portugal as shown in the 2014 REA. They provide an update to the scenarios considered in the 2050 RNBC (National Low Carbon Plan) (APA, 2012). [3] recovered waste (excluding energy recovery)/waste produced. [4] 2008-2012 Average. [5] 2012. [6] GDP growth according to the average value of macroeconomic scenarios for Portugal as shown in the 2014 REA. They provide an update to the scenarios considered in the 2050 RNBC (National Low Carbon Plan) (APA, 2012). www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt DIMENSIONS AND OBJECTIVES (3/3) 2020 2030 CAGR[ 1] 2030 Goals for 2020 and 2030 Racional Objetive and Indicator 2009/13 Average 2013 > Reduce CO2 emissions (Mt CO2 eq.) > Consistency w ith EU objectives for 2030 and w ith the emission reductions reported in the background w ork of the PNAC (National Programme for Climate Change) and in the 2050 EU Roadmap > Reduction betw een 18% (72.0 Mt CO2 eq.) and 23% (68.0 Mt CO2 eq.) in 2020 vs 2005 (2005 = 87.8 Mt CO2 eq.) > Reduction betw een 30% (61.5 Mt CO2 eq.) and 40% (52.7 Mt CO2 eq.) in 2030 vs 2005 (2005 value = 87.8 Mt CO2 eq.), contingent on the European negotiations results > Increase share of renewable energy > Compliance w ith the PNAER (National Renew able Energy Action Plan) by 2020 (% in gross final energy consumption) > Consistency w ith the goal set out in the PT proposal for the 2030 Energy and Climate Package, contingent on the European negotiations results > Improve condition of water bodies (% of w ater bodies w ith “Good” or higher quality) > Improve air quality (Average number of days w ith “poor” or “bad” AQI, in urban areas) > Valorize biodiversity (Improve the conservation status of species and habitats protected under the Habitat Directive: from 81 species and 46 habitats w ith “favourable” conservation status per biogeographical region in 2012, to 96 species and 53 habitats w ith “favourable” conservation status per biogeographical region by 2030, ensuring that, in 2020, all existing species and habitats retain or improve their conservation status) > Compliance w ith the Habitats Directive > Compliance w ith the European Biodiversity Strategy for 2020 > Compliance w ith the National Strategy for the Conservation of Nature and Biodiversity for 2020 (under review ) n.a. 18 100% [ 12] 2 n.a. 68.0- 72.0 68.9 [ 9] 25.7% 52% [ 10] 96 and 53 Contribute to sustainabi lity SUSTAINABILITY 72.4 [ 8] 24.8% 52.7- 61.5 40% 81 and 46 [13] (-0.6/-1.5%) (+2.6%) (+3.3%) (-10.9%) (+0.9% e +0.8%) > Compliance w ith the Water Framew ork Directive (contingent on the negotiation developments in the EU regarding implementation of the WFD) 81 and 46 > Compliance w ith the objectives set out in the CAFE Directive and w ith the Clean Air for Europe Programme 31% 79.8% [ 11] 914 [8] 2008-2012 Average. [9] 2012. [10] 2010. [11] 2021. [12] 2027. [13] Report Data for the 2007-2012 period. n.a. not available www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt
  • 24. 16/10/2015 24 INITIATIVES: WATER (1/3) Ref. Initiative Performance Indicators Framework (F) and Focal Point (FP) Also relevant for WATER 1 Reduce pressures on water bodies by identifying those that affect their good condition and give priority to the implementation of economically sustainable measures to reduce them » Increase to 72% the water bodies with condition rated “good” or higher, in 2020 » Reach 100% of water bodies with condition rated “good” or higher, in 2030 F: PO SEUR 2022/2023 target; PDR 2020 along with the PGRH 2015-2020; WFD and Water Law; PGRH 2015- 2020/WFD and PNA FP: APA (Portuguese Environment Agency) Agriculture and forestry; Waste; Manufacturing and extractive industry; Biodiversity and ecosystem services; Cities and territory; RD&I WATER 2 Increase the water reuse rate, meeting economic, technical and environmental criteria » Increase the water reuse rate F: PGRH 2015-2020/WFD; PNUEA; PENSAAR 2020; Horizon 2020; European Innovation Partnership on Water (EIP) FP: ERSAR (Regulatory Authority for Water and Waste) Waste; Agriculture and forestry; Manufacturing and extractive industry; Cities and territory; RD&I WATER 3 Encourage the reduction of water losses in water adduction and distribution systems (predict the risk associated with leaks and intervene in terms of asset management) » Reduce physical and commercial water losses » By 2020 reduce physical losses to less than 20% in the urban sector, 35% in the agricultural sector and 15% in the industrial sector » By 2030 reduce physical losses to less than 16% in the urban sector, 32% in the agricultural sector and 10% in the industrial sector F: PENSAAR 2020 measures; PGRH 2015- 2020/WFD; PDR 2020; PNUEA measures and targets FP: ERSAR (Regulatory Authority for Water and Waste) Agriculture and forestry; Cities and territory; R&D&I www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt António Alvarenga 48 • www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt • http://www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt/wp- content/uploads/2014/10/CrescimentoVerde_ing_v_pq_bx.pdf [short english version] • http://www.crescimentoverde.gov.pt/wp- content/uploads/2014/10/CrescimentoVerde_EN_dig_290815.pdf [full english version]
  • 25. 16/10/2015 25 António Alvarenga 49 Other References APA, 2012: “Roteiro Nacional de Baixo Carbono 2050: Opções de transição para uma economia de baixo carbono competitiva em 2050”, http://www.apambiente.pt/_zdata/DESTAQUES/2012/RNBC_COMPLETO_2050_V04.pdf Carlos Figueiredo; Fátima Azevedo; Jorge Catarino: “Alternativas de Medição do Desempenho das Economias na Óptica da Sustentabilidade”, in Prospectiva e Planeamento, Vol. 15−2008, pp. 207-243, http://www.dpp.pt/Lists/Pesquisa%20Avanada/Attachments/1404/Medicao_Desempenho.pdf Comissão Europeia - Estratégia Europa 2020, http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/index_en.htm Comissão Europeia - Estratégia Europa 2020: Indicadores Europa 2020, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/europe_2020_indicators/headline_indicators Comissão Europeia, 2011. “Roteiro de transição para uma economia hipocarbónica competitiva em 2050”, COM (2011) 112 final, http://eur- lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2011:0112:FIN:PT:PDF DPP, 2010. DPP Scanning DOC’s: D28_Sustentabilidade Europe 2020 targets: climate change and energy, http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/themes/16_energy_and_ghg.pdf Fátima Azevedo in Cenários: Tendências e Futuros na Economia Global, nº 14 junho 2010 GNH index – Gross National Happiness índex, http://www.grossnationalhappiness.com/ IPPC - Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas, http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm OECD - Your Better Life Index, http://www.oecdbetterlifeindex.org/ OECD Factbook 2011-2012: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics Rio+20, 2012. Beyond the GDP: toward social and environmental sustainability indicators, http://www.uncsd2012.org/index.php?page=view&type=1000&nr=625&menu=126 Sheng Fulai, 2010. “Green Economy – Conceptual Issues”, UNEP, http://www.rona.unep.org/documents/partnerships/GreenEconomy/GE_Conceptual_Issues.pdf UN, 2011. Economic Commission for Europe - Seventh “Environment for Europe” Ministerial Conference, Astana , http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/documents/2011/ece/ece.astana.conf.2011.5.e.pdf UNEP, 2011, Towards a Green Economy: Pathways to Sustainable Development and Poverty Eradication, http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/Portals/88/documents/ger/ger_final_dec_2011/Green%20EconomyReport_Final_Dec2011.pdf UNEP: Do Rio à Rio+20, http://www.onu.org.br/rio20/alem-da-rio20-avancando-rumo-a-um-futuro-sustentavel/ United Nations - Sustainable Development Knowledge Platform, http://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ United Nations Environment Program, http://www.unep.org/ United Nations, 2012. “The future we want”, General Assembly, 24 July, p.1-53, http://www.un.org/en/ga/president/66/Letters/PDF/Rio+20%20Draft%20Resolution-24%20July.pdf United Nations: COP17 - Report of the Conference of the Parties on its seventeenth session, held in Durban from 28 November to 11 December 2011, http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/cop17/eng/09a01.pdf Z_punk (2007): Megatrends, http://www.z-punkt.de/fileadmin/be_user/englisch/D_Downloads/2007_20_most_important_megatrends.pdf