This article aims to present the causes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its future evolution scenarios. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, the United States, European Union countries and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a Western military alliance, are involved in this conflict. With the end of the Soviet Union in 1989, NATO was expanded to meet the geopolitical interests of the United States. During the Cold War between the States and the Soviet Union, NATO had 16 countries until 1989, attracting in 1997 another 14 countries that were part of the Eastern European socialist system. More recently, Finland and Sweden joined NATO. All of this is part of the strategy of the United States and its European allies to get closer to the borders of Russia, which is considered, along with China, an enemy of Western powers. The facts of life demonstrate that, for centuries, humanity has been faced with conflicts between great powers that are not resolved through diplomatic means but through military means because we live in a world without a world government and without international law that is respected by all countries, especially by the great powers that seek to impose their will on the world level. Without a world government and a world parliament democratically elected by the world's population, as well as without the existence of a world Supreme Court, there is no way for international law to be effectively applied and respected by all countries. It is urgent for humanity to equip itself as urgently as possible with the instruments necessary to build a world of peace.

1. 1
THE CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND ITS FUTURE
SCENARIOS
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to present the causes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its
future evolution scenarios. In this conflict, in addition to Russia and Ukraine, the United
States, the countries of the European Union and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty
Organization), a Western military alliance, which was formed after the Second World
War, when the United States and its European allies joined together at the military level
to confront the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, the Soviet Union's military alliance
with the socialist countries of Eastern Europe. With the end of the Soviet Union in 1989,
the Warsaw Pact fell apart, but NATO was maintained and expanded to meet the
geopolitical interests of the United States with the incorporation of countries that
belonged to the Warsaw Pact, as well as with the recent accession of Finland and Sweden.
It is worth noting that one of NATO's pillars is ensuring the security of its member
countries, which can occur diplomatically or with the use of military forces. NATO
member countries provide part of their military contingent for eventual actions of this
size, since the organization does not have its own military force.
During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union until 1989, NATO
included 16 countries: 1) Germany; 2) Belgium; 3) Canada; 4) Denmark; 5) Spain; 6)
United States; 7) France; 8) Greece; 9) Netherlands; 10) Iceland; 11) Italy; 12)
Luxembourg; 13) Norway; 14) Portugal; 15) Turkey; 16) United Kingdom. To meet the
geopolitical interests of the United States and its weapons industry, NATO expanded after
the end of the Soviet Union in 1989, attracting in 1997 another 14 countries that were part
of the socialist system of Eastern Europe, such as Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Czech
Republic and Romania. Figure 1 shows the European countries that joined NATO before
1997 and those that joined after 1997.
Figure 1- NATO’s approach to Russia’s borders
Source: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/internacional-60129112

2. 2
With the end of the Soviet Union in 1989 and the Warsaw Pact, a military alliance of the
socialist countries of Eastern Europe, NATO (western military alliance) expanded,
starting with the Baltic Sea, crossing Central Europe, passing through intervention in the
Balkans (formerly Yugoslavia) and reaching Central Asia and Pakistan, expanding the
borders of the Western military alliance under the leadership of the United States. Greater
proximity of NATO member countries to the border with Russia would be completed
with the incorporation of Ukraine into the Western military alliance as desired by the
United States, its allies in the European Union and the Ukrainian government. All of this
is part of the strategy of the United States and its European allies to approach the borders
of Russia, which is considered, along with China, an enemy of Western powers due to the
purpose of Russian rulers under the leadership of Vladimir Putin to make Russia will once
again have the same power as that exercised by the Soviet Union on the international
political scene and also due to the military alliance concluded in 2000 between Russia
and China. NATO's expansion towards Russian borders is considered by Russian rulers
as the main external danger for Russia.
At the end of the 1990s, the geopolitical distribution of the new North American military
bases leaves no doubt about the existence of a new “sanitary belt” separating Germany
from Russia and Russia from China. Faced with Ukraine's imminent integration into
NATO, Russia reacted by intervening militarily in this country to prevent it from being
incorporated into NATO at all costs. Russia's invasion began with dozens of missile
strikes on cities across Ukraine before dawn on February 24, 2022. Russian ground troops
advanced quickly and within weeks controlled large swaths of Ukraine and advanced into
the suburbs of Kiev. Russian forces shelled Kharkiv and seized territory in the east and
south as far as Kherson and surrounded the port city of Mariupol. Russia's military
intervention in Ukraine caused the United States and European Union countries to provide
massive military support to Ukraine, through NATO, to defend itself militarily against
Russia. Figure 2 shows the regions of Ukraine currently militarily occupied by Russia
and which suffer constant attacks from the Ukrainian army, which is supported by the
United States, European Union countries and NATO.
Figure 2- Areas of Ukraine occupied by Russia
Source: https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/articles/cgxez28qk1jo
Instead of trying to negotiate a peace solution to the war in Ukraine, the United States
government headed by Joe Biden preferred to arm the Ukrainian government to resist the
Russian invasion and establish economic sanctions against the Russian government and

3. 3
its citizens. The fact is that the Russian invasion of Ukraine benefited the United States
economically, especially its arms industry, which increased arms exports by more than
14% and account for 40% of global arms transfers. The United States Congress has
systematically approved huge funds for the military strengthening of Ukraine since the
Russian invasion in February 2022, as much as the European Union countries whose
military spending on the war in Ukraine reached US$480 billion in 2022. The causes of
the war between Russia and Ukraine are therefore, above all, geopolitical and strategic.
Vladimir Putin's arrival to power in Russia in 2000 radically changed this geopolitical
situation, which until then was very unfavorable for Russians. Vladimir Putin in power
marked the beginning of Russia's geopolitical recovery, whose position had been greatly
weakened during the 1990s with the Yeltsin government that took power after the end of
the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Putin represents the rise to power of a broad and solid coalition of Russian
economic and political interests that came together regarding the need to rebuild the
minimum operating bases of a modern capitalist state in Russia that would overcome the
savage and predatory phase of “primitive accumulation” in the Russian Federation with
Yeltsin in power in the 1990s. Russia's geopolitical recovery was possible thanks to
Putin's affirmation of a nationalist project for the recovery of the Russian state. It was
from the year 2000 onwards that Russia decided to develop a strategic partnership with
China. Russia considered that China could help it in its resistance to the geopolitical
ambitions of the United States both in Eastern Europe and in the Caucasus or Central
Asia. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) was created in 2001 to establish an
alliance between Russia and China in military terms and to combat terrorism, religious
fundamentalism and separatism in the Asian region.
There are two future scenarios for the war between Russia and Ukraine; 1) The military
conflict is restricted to Ukraine; and, 2) The conflict extends across Europe and the world.
If the conflict is restricted to Ukraine, Russia will maintain the Ukrainian territories
already conquered until, accumulating forces, it comes to militarily occupy all of Ukraine
to impose its will on the enemy. The conflict could initially become widespread in Europe
if NATO intervenes militarily alongside the Ukrainian government. This would pave the
way for World War 3 with the involvement of major military powers with unpredictable
consequences with the use of nuclear weapons as Putin threatened retaliation against
countries that intervene militarily in support of Ukraine. From the above, the
responsibility of the United States government for the possibility of the outbreak of the
3rd World War is evident because it has promoted the expansion of NATO to the borders
of Russia since 1997, which would be completed with the incorporation of Ukraine into
the Western military alliance, in addition to imposing sanctions economic actions against
Russia. The governments of the European Union countries are also responsible for the
possibility of the outbreak of World War 3 because they are supporting the irrationality
of the Joe Biden government in the conflict with Russia. In turn, the UN is another major
responsible for the possibility of the outbreak of the 3rd World War because it has not
contributed to seeking an end to the war in Ukraine and, on the contrary, is contributing
to its intensification with the anti-Russia resolutions approved by the General meeting.
There are several lessons from the war between Russia and Ukraine. The first lesson is
that no country in the world is safe from being invaded by the great powers if it does not
serve their interests. The second lesson is that the power of the great Western powers,
represented by the United States, the European Union, among other countries, and NATO,
can suffocate the economy of any country in the world with the adoption of economic and
financial sanctions such as those carried out for the first time in history against Russia.

4. 4
The third lesson is that the UN did not fulfill its role of mediating the conflict between
Russia and Ukraine to avoid the harmful consequences of the war and preserve world
peace. The fourth lesson is that the ineffectiveness of the UN contributed to warlords on
both sides seeking to impose their will using military power, in the case of Russia and the
great Western powers, represented by the United States, the European Union, among
other countries, and NATO. The fifth lesson is that International Law was once again
disrespected with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The sixth lesson is that the world
experiences anarchy in international relations in which the law of the strongest prevails.
The seventh lesson is that the power of the arms industry promotes the military expansion
of the world's great powers to foment wars to make money. The eighth lesson is that the
economic war by the United States, European Union and NATO against Russia could be
the trigger for World War 3 with the possibility of using nuclear weapons.
The facts of life demonstrate that the war between Russia and Ukraine means the
continuity of the old world order in which conflicts of interests between the great powers
have been resolved “manu-militare”, that is, by military means. For centuries, humanity
has been faced with conflicts between great powers that are not resolved through
diplomatic means but through military means because we live in a world without a world
government and without international law that is respected by all countries, especially the
large powers that seek to impose their will on the world level. Without the existence of a
world government and a world parliament democratically elected by the world
population, as well as the existence of a world Supreme Court, there is no way for
international law to be effectively applied and respected by all countries. It is urgent for
humanity to equip itself as urgently as possible with the instruments necessary to build a
world of peace.
Throughout the history of humanity, there have been three attempts to structure
instruments aimed at building a world of peace. The first attempt occurred in 1648 with
the Treaty of Westphalia, which put an end to the Thirty Years' War (1618 – 1648), which
marked the 17th century as one of the bloodiest in European history, with a series of
treaties that ended the War of the Thirty Years and also officially recognized the United
Provinces (Netherlands) and the Swiss Confederation. The second attempt to structure
instruments aimed at building a world of peace occurred with the creation of the League
of Nations on January 10, 1920 in the rubble of the First World War. The third attempt to
structure instruments aimed at building a world of peace occurred with the creation of the
UN (United Nations), which was founded in 1945 after the 2nd World War, and has been
inoperative throughout its history, including in the current conflict between Russia and
Ukraine and in the conflict between Jews and Palestinians. The UN has been a failure in
building a world of peace.
The failure to build world peace with the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, with the League
of Nations in 1920 and with the UN in 1945 demonstrate the urgency of restructuring the
UN so that it can exercise effective governance of the international system that makes it
possible to mediate international conflicts and ensuring world peace. In this sense, the
UN should be restructured to become a World Government that would aim to defend the
general interests of the planet, ensure that each national State respects the sovereignty of
other countries and prevent the spread of global systemic risks. With this new
configuration of the UN, the Security Council would be abolished and the General
Assembly would be transformed into the World Parliament. The UN restructured, as a
World Government would avoid the empire of a single country, as has occurred
throughout the history of humanity, and the anarchy of all countries, as is currently the
case.

5. 5
With a world Government, a world Parliament and a world Supreme Court resulting from
the restructuring of the UN, it will be possible to avoid wars and end the bloodbath that
has characterized the history of humanity. To be democratic, the world government
should be elected by all countries in the world and be representative of all people in the
world. The survival of humanity depends on the ability to conclude a Planetary Social
Contract representative of the will of the majority of the planet's population. The UN
General Assembly should convene a World Constituent Assembly to draw up and
approve the new Planetary Social Contract that should restructure the UN and establish
relations between human beings and between them and nature. Until this occurs, new
conflicts such as the current one between Russia and Ukraine, including the 3rd World
War, could occur, which could lead to the extinction of humanity with the contenders
using weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member
of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of
IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering,
Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional
planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and
Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning
Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State
of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998),
Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do
Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de
Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora
Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos
na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica,
Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate
ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores
Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no
Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua
convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o
mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência
(Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso
e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook
(CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their
existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova,
Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2023).