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SDPM in Brazil - 2007

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Peter Mello
Peter Mello

The document discusses Success Driven Project Management (SDPM), a methodology for managing project uncertainties, risks, and resource restrictions. SDPM involves calculating success probabilities and contingency reserves during planning, and tracking success probability trends during execution. It is being applied successfully in Brazil for oil and gas projects. SDPM is compared to other approaches like Critical Chain Project Management, and its expansion to more projects in Brazil is discussed.

NegóciosTecnologia
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The Application of Success Probabilities, Success Driven Project Management, and Some Critical Chain Concepts To the Oil & Gas Industry in Brazil Russell D. Archibald, USA Vladimir Liberzon, Russia Peter Berndt de Souza Mello, Brazil PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Presentation Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
THE NEED FOR MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES, RISKS, & RESOURCE RESTRICTIONS IN PROJECTS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Success Driven Project Management (SDPM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Success Driven Project Management (SDPM) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Resource Critical Path/RCP ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Success Probability ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Eight Integration Methods Used ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Eight Integration Methods (Cont ’ d) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Eight Integration Methods (Cont ’ d) ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Eight Integration Methods (Cont ’ d) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Methods Unique to SDPM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM versus CCM ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM versus CCM (cont’d) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM versus CCM (cont’d) Risk Evaluation & Prediction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM versus CCM (cont’d) Progress Evaluation & Decision Making ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM versus CCM (cont’d) Project Portfolio Management ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM versus CCM (cont’d) Periodic Schedule & Cost Performance Evaluation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Inputs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Process Methods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Completion Date ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Progress Evaluation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Pro ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Cons ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Using a Summary Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
MC vs Using 3 Estimates: Merge Bias Question ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
The Russian Approach to Project Planning ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Is this the real critical chain ? (Photo in Amazon, enjoying a couple of days off the Urucu/Manaus Project – Peter Mello, 2007)
Experience to Date: SDPM & RCP in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Experience to Date: SDPM & RCP in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Slowing Down to Speed Up !! ,[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Fragnets ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Fragnets ,[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Fragnets PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Schedule optimization
Fragnets PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA 800 meters per day 1150 meters per day Slow down Speed up
Scheduling optimization in a few words ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA 9 DAYS 10 DAYS
SDPM is expanding in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM is expanding in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM is expanding in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM is expanding in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
SDPM is expanding in Brazil ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Three point estimates Most Probable applied Pessimistic applied Most Probable Planning Pessimistic Planning Optimistic Planning
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Optimistic with Critical Schedule Calculated
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Success Probability PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Tipical Schedule The real world Buffer protection
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Success Probability – The paradox ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Success Probability – The paradox ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SDPM will create calculated critical schedules that will establish the necessary balance between cost & time effectiveness and the expected success probability, according to goals agreed with stakeholders.
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Conclusions (Cont’d) ,[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
Conclusions (Cont’d) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
A Few Useful Links ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA

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SDPM in Brazil - 2007

  • 1. The Application of Success Probabilities, Success Driven Project Management, and Some Critical Chain Concepts To the Oil & Gas Industry in Brazil Russell D. Archibald, USA Vladimir Liberzon, Russia Peter Berndt de Souza Mello, Brazil PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
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  • 28. Is this the real critical chain ? (Photo in Amazon, enjoying a couple of days off the Urucu/Manaus Project – Peter Mello, 2007)
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  • 34. Fragnets PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Schedule optimization
  • 35. Fragnets PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA 800 meters per day 1150 meters per day Slow down Speed up
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  • 37. PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA
  • 38. PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA 9 DAYS 10 DAYS
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  • 44. PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Three point estimates Most Probable applied Pessimistic applied Most Probable Planning Pessimistic Planning Optimistic Planning
  • 45. PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Optimistic with Critical Schedule Calculated
  • 46. PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Success Probability PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA Tipical Schedule The real world Buffer protection
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  • 54. PMI COS 5th Conference, May 4-7 2008, Chicago USA