Presentation at the World Conference of WCTR 2010, Lisbon, Portugal

1. ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OILASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OIL
ADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FORADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FOR
URBAN TRANSPORTURBAN TRANSPORT
Nick Buchanan, GHD Australia, Sydney, Australia
Andre Dantas, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

2.  Contextual elements of oil addiction
 Oil addiction implications
 Christchurch (New Zealand); and
 Sydney (Australia).
 Discussion
 Conclusions
Outline

3. Contextual elements of oil
addiction
Low density LU;
Car-dependent cities;
Growing energy
consumption;
Environmental
problems (emissions
and climate change)
TS
Flow
Pattern
(FP)
AS
I
III
II
External
factors
Chea
p Oil

4. Contextual elements of oil
addiction
What happens to transport when oil starts to decline?
oil prices and oil price volatility
skyrocketing?
Short-term crisis causing
massive disruptions?
What about MITIGATION?What about MITIGATION?
According to Hirsch et al (2005), mitigation will require intensive
efforts over several decades:
•no action before peak oil =>fuel deficit for more than 2 decades;
•action 10 years before peak oil => fuel deficit for 1 decade;
•action 20 years before peak oil =>possible to avoid shortfalls;

5. Oil Addiction implications
Oil supply scenario
analysis
Existing travel
demand patterns
Initiatives to
improve urban
resilience
Implications
Assessment criteria

6. Oil Addiction implications
Oil supply scenario
analysis
Existing travel
demand patterns
Initiatives to
improve urban
resilience
Implications
Assessment criteria
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probabilty(%)
Peak Oil
5% Reduction
7.5% Reduction
10% Reduction
15% Reduction
20% Reduction
Fuel Shortage

7. Oil Addiction implications
Oil supply scenario
analysis
Existing travel
demand patterns
Initiatives to
improve urban
resilience
Implications
Assessment criteria
Trips
Cost

8. Oil Addiction implications
Oil supply scenario
analysis
Existing travel
demand patterns
Initiatives to
improve urban
resilience
Implications
Assessment criteria
PolicyPolicy
PlanPlan
StrategyStrategy

9. Oil Addiction implications
Oil supply scenario
analysis
Existing travel
demand patterns
Initiatives to
improve urban
resilience
Implications
Assessment criteria
How well is it likely toHow well is it likely to
implement useful mitigationimplement useful mitigation
measures?measures?

10. Oil Addiction implications
Christchurch
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
S
Peak Production 0.0% 37.8% 79.2% 94.9% 99.0% 100%
C
E
7% Voluntary Reduction
0.0% 3.5% 52.4% 88.4% 98.1% 99.7%
N
A
10% Ration Reduction
0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 78.1% 95.9% 99.4%
R
I
15% Ration Regulated
Reduction
0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 46.1% 86.0% 97.6%
O
S
20% Ration Enforced
Reduction
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 59.3% 90.7%
Oil Supply scenario – probability analysis

11. Oil Addiction implications
Christchurch
Existing Travel Demand Patterns
•Population: 372,500 (2006), 414,000 (2026) 550,000 (2041).
•Average travel distance: 7.4 km.
•Modal split: 85% car; 4% PT; 11% other.
•Average number of trips per day: 5/person.
•Journey to work (JTW) travel: 79% car; 5% PT; 16% other.
•Travel distance: 8km car, 7km PT; 6 km bicycle.
•Outer suburbs both generated and received the highest percentage of
trips in 2001;
•Circumferential travel rather than a more traditional radial pattern.

12. Oil Addiction implications
Christchurch
Initiatives to improve urban resilience
Urban Development Strategy
(UDS)
Canterbury Regional Land
Transport Strategy (RLTS)
•multi-organisational
participatory planning effort;
•high-density development
option.
•Vision: affordable, integrated,
safe, responsive, and sustainable
land transport system;
•“it is not possible to build our
way out of congestion”.
•Coordination amongst agencies must be improved;
•Reliance on “soft” measures to change in travel behaviour in
order to minimise future disruptions.

13. Oil Addiction implications
Christchurch
Implications
•Very unlikely that even minor fuel shortage events could be assimilated:
•New Zealand’s total dependence on oil imports;
•Metropolitan growth trends are almost irreversible, given the levels
of investment in car-oriented infrastructure;
•Planning actions are quite timid in addressing the energy
consumption issue;
•There is an unsubstantiated “belief” that alternative energy sources
will replace petroleum.
•National government leadership is critical to set the pace of the local
authorities’ actions.

14. Oil Addiction implications
Sydney
Oil Supply scenario – probability analysis
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
S
Peak Production 0.0% 19.9% 49.2% 72.1% 86.06 93.3%
C
E
7% Voluntary Reduction
0.0% 3.1% 25.3% 53.31% 74.3% 86.9%
N
A
10% Ration Reduction
0.0% 0.8% 15.9% 43.2% 67.0% 82.6%
R
I
15% Ration Regulated
Reduction
0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 26.0% 15.0% 72.5%
O
S
20% Ration Enforced
Reduction
0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 12.7% 35.0% 58.4%

15. Oil Addiction implications
Sydney
Existing Travel Demand Patterns
•Population: 4,169,000 (2004), 5,300,000 (2031).
•15.8 million trips/day=>80 million Km vehicle travelled.
•Average travel distance/day: 20.5 km.
•Modal split: 69.5% car; 10.4% PT; 20.1% other.
•Average number of trips per day: 3.8/person.
•Average travel length/trip: 9.4 km.

16. Oil Addiction implications
Sydney
Initiatives to improve urban resilience
Metropolitan Strategy
•Six distinct transit cities, each around 20 to 30 kilometres in
diameter and each having a major Centre and a series of Local
Centres.
•To achieve a sustainable balance between social, environmental and
economic objectives.
•Concentration of jobs in the CBD will remain an issue=>travel
distances likely to increase;
•Average travel distance slowly (0.7%) increasing over the
next decade.
•To increase the share of alternative modes to the car.
•Coordinated actions including planning, evaluation and funding.

17. Oil Addiction implications
Sydney
Implications
•Extreme consequences of major fuel deficit could be avoided, but not
eliminated:
•Australia’s energy availability will contribute to delaying impacts;
•Still exposed to global volatility of oil prices;
•Major rail links are too far into the future and by then travel
patterns by car will already be well established;
•Urban “pockets” of oil vulnerability: combination of socio-economic
conditions may generate serious impacts to deprived groups.
•Creation of a new ‘super’ transport agency may lead to a more co-
ordinated government approach and a better transport outcome.

18. Discussion
•NZ and Australian metropolitan areas are likely to be impacted
in an event of oil shortage:
(1) Lack of local, regional and national planning/policy initiatives that
specifically consider oil addiction as a critical matter in achieving
sustainability; and
(2) Limited knowledge on the potential consequences of a substantial
fuel price increase and/or oil unavailability at the levels currently
supplied to users.

19. Conclusions
•Neither city has comprehensive planning nor governance
structures in place to plan and manage oil shortage/oil price
volatility (100, 200, 300% increase).
•Christchurch is highly addicted to oil despite planning
interventions;
•Sydney is slightly less addicted to oil, but problem-oriented
approach does not address future oil shortages.
•A new approach to transport and urban planning and policy
making is required to address oil addiction.
•Considerable resources are needed to develop a whole
discipline on transitioning from an oil addiction reality to an
energy constraint society.

20. ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OILASLEEP AT THE WHEEL: OIL
ADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FORADDICTION IMPLICATIONS FOR
URBAN TRANSPORTURBAN TRANSPORT
Nick Buchanan, GHD Australia, Sydney, Australia
Nick.Buchanan@ghd.com.au
Andre Dantas, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Andre.dantas@canterbury.ac.nz