The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House can bring about significant changes in the future of the United States and of the world. Faced with Trump's inaugural speech and campaign pledges, the following scenarios can be seen: 1) advancement of protectionism in the United States and the world; 2) end to the globalization of the productive system and of the free trade; 3) mass deportation of immigrants, especially illegal immigrants from the United States; 4) deterioration of economic relations with China; 5) changes in the world's largest military alliance (NATO); 6) increased military tensions with China and North Korea in the Far East; 7) review of nuclear agreement with Iran; 8) end of climate agreements; And, 9) the formation of a global power agreement with Russia.

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THE FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES AND OF THE WORLD WITH
DONALD TRUMP
Fernando Alcoforado*
In his inaugural speech to the United States, Donald Trump repeated everything that
served as a basis for his political propaganda in the electoral campaign centered on
populism and nationalism. His speech was populist in stating that he and the people
together will determine the course of America and the world for many years to come.
Populism manifested itself in the speech when Trump said that "today we are not just
transferring power from one government to another or from one party to another, but we
are transferring the power of Washington D.C. and giving it back to you, the people".
Populism was further characterized when he said that "January 20, 2017 will be
remembered as the day when the people have once again become the ruler of this
country".
Donald Trump's nationalism was evident in his speech when he stated that "for many
decades we have enriched the foreign industry to the detriment of American industry;
we subsidize armies from other countries, at the same time allowing the sad exhaustion
of our Armed Forces. We defended the frontiers of other countries while refusing to
defend ours”, that “we spend trillions and trillions of dollars abroad, as long as
America's infrastructure falls into disrepair and decay. We made other countries rich
while the wealth, strength, and confidence of our country were dissipated on the
horizon”, that "one by one, factories closed and left our territory, never thinking of the
millions and millions of American workers who were abandoned. The wealth of our
middle class was taken from their homes and then redistributed all over the world" and
that "this is the past. Now we are looking only for the future".
Trump's nationalism is marked in his speech by stating that "from this day forward, it
will be only America first, America first". To meet the interests of the United States,
Trump said that "any decision on trade, taxes, immigration and foreign affairs will be
taken to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders
from the devastation caused by the countries that produce our products, rob our
businesses and destroy our jobs" and that "we will bring our jobs back. We will bring
our borders back. We will bring back our wealth. And we will bring back our dreams"
and that "we will build new roads, highways, bridges, airports, tunnels and railroads all
over our wonderful nation". Trump also emphasized that "we will take our population
out of social insurance and return them to work, rebuilding our country with American
hands and American labor". Trump stated that "we will follow two simple rules; buy
American products and hire Americans. We will strengthen old alliances and form new
ones, and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will
eradicate from the face of the Earth".
The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House can bring about significant changes in
the future of the United States and of the world. Faced with Trump's inaugural speech
and campaign pledges, the following scenarios can be seen: 1) advancement of
protectionism in the United States and the world; 2) end to the globalization of the
productive system and of the free trade; 3) mass deportation of immigrants, especially
illegal immigrants from the United States; 4) deterioration of economic relations with
China; 5) changes in the world's largest military alliance (NATO); 6) increased military
tensions with China and North Korea in the Far East; 7) review of nuclear agreement

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with Iran; 8) end of climate agreements; And, 9) the formation of a global power
agreement with Russia.
The scenario 1 of advancement of protectionism in the United States to be adopted by
the Trump government with the objective of defending American businesses and jobs
will cause the same to occur in the world as a counterpart. Since winning the election,
Trump has focused on threatening companies, especially automakers, saying it will
charge a 35% tariff on manufactured goods in Mexico. The goal of Trump's more
protectionist trade policy is to create jobs, to reduce the trade deficit and to get "good
deals" for the Americans. This means that scenario 2 of the end of the globalization of
the productive system will be materialized with the end of free trade which will prevent
companies from establishing themselves at their discretion in countries where they earn
the most profits. Scenario 3 of mass deportation of immigrants is expected to occur
especially against Hispanics who live illegally in the United States for Trump to
privilege the interests of US workers.
Scenario 4 of deteriorating economic relations with China lies in the fact that this
country is accused by Trump of "stealing" companies and jobs from the United States.
The scenario 5 of changes in the largest military alliance in the world (NATO) is
expected to occur because Trump has already stated that NATO is obsolete and
described its members as ungrateful allies who have benefited from the generosity of
the United States. In a way, Trump's rhetoric repeats a concern that has already been
expressed, since most NATO members are not meeting the established target for each
member of the bloc to spend at least 2% of their respective Internal Product Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) in the area of defense. It should be noted that the United
States is the one that spends the most in defense on the world.
The scenario 6 of increasing military tensions with China and North Korea in the Far
East should occur because China is increasing its naval power and are building artificial
islands in a maritime area with large oil reserves in dispute with Japan in the South
China Sea. Japan and South Korea were identified by Trump as countries that should
have their own nuclear arsenals. North Korea is developing its own nuclear weapons,
and Trump will have to confront those ambitions, something his predecessors have not
been able to prevent. It is unclear what Trump can and will do, but he set out to
negotiate directly with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. In response to a recent
announcement by Kim Jong-un that North Korea was about to test long-range missiles
capable of carrying nuclear warheads, Trump said on Twitter that it simply "will not
happen". The relationship between the United States and North Korea is seen as a
potential critical point in the coming years.
Scenario 7 of a review of Iran's nuclear agreement with President Obama that suspended
sanctions in exchange for guarantees of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons was
considered by Trump to be the worst deal ever negotiated. Trump has stated during the
campaign that dismantling it will be his number one priority. It should be stressed that
Iran is a key player in the Syrian conflict and a historical rival of Saudi Arabia and
Israel. The supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was more direct: "If they
break the agreement, we will burn it", the Associated Press reported. Scenario 8 of end
of climate deals is expected to occur because Donald Trump said he would cancel the
Paris climate deal in the first 100 days of his term and that he wants to do everything
possible to reverse President Obama's climate change regulations. The global Paris
climate agreement that will come into effect in 2020 is the obligation for all nations -

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not just rich countries - to be involved in combating climate change. 195 member
countries of the UN Climate Convention and the European Union signed the global
Paris climate agreement.
Scenario 9 for the formation of a global power accord between the United States and
Russia can reproduce what happened after World War II with the Yalta agreement
between the United States and the Soviet Union that celebrated what is called Peace of
Hegemony between the two largest military powers on the planet. It is an agreement
that is established between two great military powers that establish that it is better to
establish a rule of coexistence than to go to a confrontation. It is a new redivision of the
world between the superpowers. In addition, the United States seeks to count on Russia
in the struggle to exterminate the Islamic state.
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015) and As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo
(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) .