Education has always been seen as one of the main factors of economic and social development. Education operated as one of the main levers of Japan's development in the 1970s, South Korea in the 1980s and China from the 1990s, just as it contributed to the economic and social progress of the Scandinavian countries ( Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and Iceland) after World War II. Education has also always been seen as the guarantee of obtaining a well-paid job, of social ascension to the lower classes of the population and reduction of social inequalities. Better wages have always been related to the skill of the worker that would be obtained with the qualified education. This thesis is being put in check in the present moment with the technological advance especially of the artificial intelligence that will make that there is substitution of the man by intelligent machines in the productive activity.

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IS EDUCATION THE GUARANTEE OF EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL
ASCENSION IN THE FUTURE?
Fernando Alcoforado *
Education has always been seen as one of the main factors of economic and social
development. Education operated as one of the main leverage of development of Japan
in the 1970s, South Korea in the 1980s and China from the 1990s, just as it contributed
to the economic and social progress of the Scandinavian countries (Sweden , Denmark,
Norway, Finland and Iceland) after World War II [ALCOFOFORADO, Fernando. A
invenção de um novo Brasil.(The invention of a new Brazil). Curitiba: Editora CRV,
2017]
Education has always been seen as the guarantee of obtaining a well-paid job, of social
ascension to the lowest strata of the population and reduction of social inequalities.
Better wages have always been related to the skill of the worker that would be obtained
with the qualified education. This thesis is being called into question at the present time
because the symbiosis between increased productivity resulting from technological
advancement and wage increases ended in the 1970s in the United States, according to
Martin Ford, a futurist author focused on the impact of artificial intelligence and
robotics in society and economics (FORD, Martin, Rise of the robots. New York: Basic
Books, 2015).
Martin Ford is the author of two books: Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat
of a Jobless Future (2015) and The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating
Technology and the Economics of the Future (2009). Both books address the effects of
automation and the potential for structural unemployment that is dramatically increasing
social inequality. Ford was the first author of the 21st century to publish a book (The
Lights in the Tunnel in 2009) presenting a strong argument that advances in robotics and
artificial intelligence would eventually renders a large fraction of the human workforce
obsolete. In subsequent years, other books have made similar arguments, and Martin
Ford's thesis was supported by a series of formal academic studies, mainly by Oxford
University researchers, who found in 2013 that the jobs occupied by about 47% of the
workforce could be susceptible to automation in the next two decades.
According to Ford (2015), in 2013, a typical worker had a 13% lower remuneration than
in 1973, after adjusting for inflation, even with a productivity increase of 107%. Ford
(2015) states that in January 2010 the Washington Post reported that in the first decade
of the twenty-first century, there was no job creation and that this had not happened
since the Great Depression of 1929. Ford (2015) states that the loss of the first decade of
the twenty-first century is surprising given the need for the United States to create one
million jobs a year. Social inequalities in the United States have grown to levels not
seen since 1929 and labor share in national income has steadily declined.
Ford (2015) states that we live in an era defined by fundamental change between
workers and machines and that this change defies one of the basic assumptions about
the technology that machines are tools that increase workers' productivity. Instead,
machines are turning into workers. All this progress results from the relentless
acceleration of computer technology. Moore's Law that the capacity of computers
doubles every 18 or 24 months has been maintained to the present moment. Moore's

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Law emerged in 1965 through a concept established by Gordon Earl Moore. Such a law
said that the processing power of computers would double every 18 or 24 months
months. There is no way to say that this law will perpetuate for much longer, but so far
it has been valid.
A widespread perception is that automation poses a threat to workers who have little
education and low skill levels. This hypothesis is based on the fact that such jobs are
routine or repetitive. Ford (2015) states that the reality is quite different because, while
low-level occupations are being affected, many university-level, white-collar workers
are finding that their jobs are directly hit as well as automation progresses. The
conclusion to be drawn from all this is that more education and empowerment does not
necessarily provide effective protection against future unemployment because, in
general, computers are becoming more proficient and acquiring skills especially when
dealing with large amounts of data.
According to Ford (2015), the salaries of new university-level workers have declined
over the past decade in the United States and that 50% of new graduates are forced to
take jobs that do not require a higher level. All of this suggests that we are experiencing
a transition that puts enormous strain on the economy and society. Conventional
education offered to workers and students who are preparing to enter the labor market
will likely be ineffective. In other words, education systems are preparing workers for a
world of work that no longer exists. Ford (2015) states that the problem is that a lot of
people are going to the job market while the machines are driving people out. There is
no way to believe in the promise of education as a universal solution to unemployment
and poverty.
In addition to being a threat to the social advancement of workers, the advance of
artificial intelligence may call into question the existence of the capitalist system itself
as mass unemployment will increasingly contribute to the decline in the consumption of
goods and services. This situation would lead to the cessation of the process of
accumulation of capital without which the capitalist system would be led to collapse and
social upheaval at national and global levels. In order to ensure the demand for goods
and services and to avoid the collapse of the capitalist system, the solutions presented
are what is known as an incentive to the Creative Economy and the adoption of an
Income Transfer program. The question is whether the Creative Economy can
compensate for the mass unemployment that productive activities will generally provide
with the use of artificial intelligence. The Income Transfer Program through which the
state would provide income to the unemployed would be adopted to compensate for the
insufficiencies of the Creative Economy.
Marisa Adán Gil's article under the title Economia criativa é saída para o desemprego,
diz especialista (Creative economy is solution for unemployment, says expert), available
on the website
<http://revistapegn.globo.com/Empreendedorismo/noticia/2015/12/economia-criativa-e-
saida-para-o-desemprego-diz-especialista.html>, informs that "one of the most
effective ways to generate new jobs is to stimulate the creative industry, according to
George Windsor, director of research at Nesta, a nonprofit organization that aims to
stimulate the 12 sectors of the creative economy in the UK. In Windsor's view, job
creation linked to creativity has enormous potential to move the economy, including in
countries like Brazil. "The creative industry adds value to products in a way that no

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other industry is capable of". According to Windsor, there are several ways to generate
jobs linked to the knowledge economy: stimulate the gaming industry; develop local
creative nuclei that work based on the cultural traditions of each region; facilitate credit
for creative sectors of the economy; investment in design and technology education. If
the British government embraces these measures, he believes it is possible to create 1
million jobs in the UK by 2030. Today, the Creative Economy is one of the fastest
growing sectors of the world economy. It is also one of the most profitable areas in
terms of generating profits, jobs and exporting goods and services. artistic and creative
effort of an individual or company.
The article A economia criativa no mundo moderno (The creative economy in the
modern world), available on the website <https://descola.org/drops/a-economia-criativa-
no-mundo-moderno/>, informs that the term "Creative Economy" refers to activities
with potential socioeconomic factors that deal with creativity, knowledge and
information. In order to understand them, it is necessary to keep in mind that companies
in this sector combine the creation, production and commercialization of cultural
creative assets and innovation such as Fashion, Art, Digital Media, Advertising,
Journalism, Photography and Architecture. In common, companies in this industry
depend on the talent and creativity to effectively exist. They are distributed in 13
different areas: 1) architecture; 2) advertising; 3) design; 4) arts and antiquities; 5)
crafts; 6) fashion; 7) cinema and video; 8) television; 9) publishing and publications;
10) performing arts; 11) radio; 12) leisure software; and, 13) music. It is important to
say that by focusing on creativity, imagination and innovation as its main characteristic,
the creative economy is not restricted to products, services or technologies. It also
encompasses processes, business models, management models, and more.
In sectors linked to art, for example, such as performing arts, visuals and music, it is
increasing the number of opportunities that stimulate specialized filming, recording and
photography services. In addition, the individual interested in this area may also choose
to specialize in show management and art direction; creation of scenery and costumes,
for example, in addition to lighting, sound, image services. In this area, there are also
painting studios, for example. In the communications sector, the list of specializations is
also great: service to the public; traditional and digital marketing, creation of websites,
brands, and portals. There are also the media-related segments, which include video and
game production, and audiovisual display and distribution systems, which also generate
countless jobs, that is, from creating content from managing to distributing it, is a fairly
rich area opportunities. Advertising also stimulates publishing, reproduction and
printing services, as well as the management of agencies and advertising companies.
This group is very rich and diverse, and you find professions in all phases of production,
recording, finishing and post-production of advertisements, marketing etc. Among the
businesses related to design, architecture, among others, are, for example, agencies and
startups, architectural and engineering technical offices and design studios.
Ford (2015) states that in our economy and society, machines are gradually undergoing
a fundamental transition: they develop beyond their historical role as a tool and, in
many cases, become "autonomous workers". If we accept the idea that it is unrealistic
that more investment in education and training is unlikely to solve the problem of
unemployment and to halt automation, Ford (2015) believes that the most effective
solution is to adopt an income guarantee policy for workers. This idea is not new.
Friedrich August von Hayek, Austrian economist and philosopher, later naturalized

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British, considered one of the greatest representatives of the Austrian School of
economic thought, was the powerful proponent of this idea when he published between
1973 and 1979 his work Law, Legislation and Liberty (Routledge, 1707). The neoliberal
income transfer program of the Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments in Brazil is an
example of the application of Hayek's income guarantee policy.
In addition to the need to provide basic net security, Ford (2015) argues that there is a
powerful argument for income-guarantee policy because technological advancement
promotes social inequality and threatens consumption. As the labor market continues to
erode and wages stagnate or fall, the mechanism that ensures consumers' purchasing
power begins to break down and the demand for products and services suffer as a result.
Faced with this fact, Martin Ford believes that a restructuring of the United States
economy will be required. In practice, the policy of guaranteeing income would be the
strategy that would provide a survival to the moribund capitalist world system. It would
compel the State to levy corporate taxes to ensure the provision of public services and
enable the adoption of the income guarantee policy for the unemployed population. This
situation would pave the way for the establishment of the Welfare State when the State
would take care of the people from the cradle to the grave in the molds of the
Scandinavian countries, which is where the greatest economic and social progress in the
world is achieved.
As the goal of preparing and recycling people for the job market will be put in check in
the future with intelligent machines, a country's education systems should prepare them
to deal with these machines as well as to develop activities linked to the Creative
Economy . A revolution in education at all levels is required, including the qualification
of teachers and the structuring of educational units to prepare their students for a world
of work where people will have to deal with intelligent machines and work within the
Creative Economy. The educational programs of the educational units at all levels of
education must be deeply restructured to achieve these goals.
Murilo Gun, a lecturer who graduated from Singularity University and a professor of
creativity, listed four skills that will be essential in an exponential growth future with
disruptive technologies such as Artificial Intelligence: 1) Interpersonal Intelligence-
the ability to relate to other people, the ability to create empathy, which is related to
leadership capacity; 2) Intrapersonal intelligence - the ability to relate to oneself,
highlighting self-knowledge, self-control and mastery of emotions; 3) Inter artificial
intelligence - ability to understand the impact of technology, such as Artificial
Intelligence and robotics, and use these resources as tools to expand human potential;
and, 4) Creative intelligence - the main differential between human and artificial
intelligence, that is, developing the ability to create something new, using the other
intelligences and applying them in an innovative way. [SAP. As habilidades do futuro
em um mundo com Inteligência Artificial (The skills of the future in a world with
Artificial Intelligence). .Available on the website
<http://news.sap.com/brazil/2017/01/25/as-habilidades-do-futuro-em-um-mundo-com-
inteligencia-artificial/>)].
* Fernando Alcoforado, 77, member of the Bahian Academy of Education and the Brazilian Academy of
Letters of Rotary - Bahia Section, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development
by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning,
business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of the books
Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um

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Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os Condicionantes de Desenvolvimento do
Estado da Bahia (PhD Thesis, University of Barcelona, http: //www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944,
2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento da
Bahia do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador,
2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of
Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010),
Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São
Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil-
Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes
Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) e A
Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017). Possui blog na Internet
(http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net). E-mail: falcoforado@uol.com.br.