Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

1. WP 5 -- Intervention Analysis
Identification and Implementation of
High-Impact Interventions—Use of
modeling tools

2. Outline
WP5—Yellow River Basin
Tools to support WP5 type analyses
• Global water and food projection tools
• Basin models
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3. WORK PACKAGES
WP5: Intervention Analysis
Research Activities:
• Literature review on previous, current, and
proposed interventions in the YRB
• Identification and assessment of high potential
interventions for increasing water productivity
and alleviating poverty
• Stakeholder insights from upper, middle, and
lower basin
WP5 Leaders: Xue Yunpeng and Claudia
Ringler with support from everyone else
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4. Yellow River Basin WP5
Implementation Process
WP0 Phase I
• Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour
-Alternative interventions, impacts, and CBA -
-Alternative interventions, impacts, and CBA -
• Project Design
• Conceptual Framework
• Development of Tools & Methods
STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE
WP5 SCENARIO ANALYSIS
WP5 SCENARIO ANALYSIS
WP1 Water Ranking of
WP2 Water alternative
Poverty Availability
Mapping & Scenario
and Access outcomes to
Analysis
determine
Phase II
WP3 Water Productivity High Potential
Analysis – Basin Model Interventions
WP4 Institutional Analysis
WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation
Platform SHARED VISION MODELING

5. What is a Shared Vision Model?
A “Shared Vision” model is a
collective view of a water resources
system jointly developed by
modelers, managers and
stakeholders. It is used to facilitate
plan development, implementation
and maintenance
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6. Perceived Advantages of
Shared Vision Models
Shared Vision Models
Improve analysis
Are more flexible
Communicate more effectively
Cost less to develop than traditional
approaches
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7. Modeling Philosophy
Shared Vision Models should
Be developed with wide support
Improve communication among
managers and stakeholders
Disseminate information equally
Improve planning and
management of water
resources
Serve as a basis for effective
negotiation
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8. Overview of
Model Development Process
Define Objectives
Structure
Modeling Process
Conceptualize System
Construct Model
Test &Validate Model
Enhance/Modify Model
Gain Stakeholder
Endorsement
Establish Ongoing
Role For Model

9. MODELING TOOLS IN SUPPORT
OF INTERVENTION ANALYSIS

10. Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000-
2050
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11. Calorie availability, key riparian countries
(calories per capita per day)
2000 2000-2050
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
Ecuador
Laos_Cambodia
Botswana
Egypt
Togo
Burkina_Faso
China
Nepal
Uganda
Mozambique
Bangladesh
Colombia
Ethiopia
Sudan
Vietnam
India
Myanmar
South_Africa
Peru
Ghana
Thailand
Mali
Zimbabwe
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12. Increasing Irrigation Water
Scarcity
Irrigation water supply reliability is declining
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
2000
0.50
2050
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
g
ed
a
A
P
A
C
a
SA
in
di
in
N
EA
SS
LA
op
op
In
E
Ch
er
M
el
er
el
th
ev
th
ev
O
O
D
D
Note: Irrigation Water Supply Reliability is defined as the ratio of actual
irrigation water consumption to potential irrigation water consumption.
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13. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,
Ganges basin (million hectares)
70
60
50
40
Rainfed
30
Irrigated
20
10
0
2000 2030 2050
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14. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,
Mekong basin (million hectares)
18
16
14
12
10
Rainfed
8
Irrigated
6
4
2
0
2000 2030 2050
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15. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Nile
basin (million hectares)
40
35
30
25
20 Rainfed
15 Irrigated
10
5
0
2000 2030 2050
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16. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Volta
basin (million hectares)
25
20
15
Rainfed
10 Irrigated
5
0
2000 2030 2050
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17. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area,
Limpopo basin (million hectares)
4
3
2 Rainfed
Irrigated
1
0
2000 2030 2050
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18. Sources of Cereal Production
Growth, Baseline, 2000-2050
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Page 18

19. Net cereal trade (million mt)
200
150
100
50 2000
2030
0 2050
EAP SA SSA LAC MENA HIC ECA
-50
-100
-150
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20. Changes of Annual Precipitation by 2030 (%)
(HadCM3)
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21. Changes of Annual Potential ET by 2030 (%)
(HadCM3)
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22. Changes of Annual Runoff by 2030 (%)
(HadCM3)
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23. Irrigation Water Supply Reliability
IMPACT Model Projections
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24. Selected Insights
Basins span a good range for presented
indicators, including average rainfall, water
availability per capita, population density, and
irrigation development
Urbanization important for all basins, but in
several basins urban centers are outside the
basin area (Andean, Volta, Mekong, Limpopo)
Climate change is a threat in all basins, but is
expected to play out in different ways
Maize is an important crop in all river basins
Non-irrigation water demand increases faster
than irrigation demand

25. Selected Insights
Under baseline, childhood malnutrition largest in the
Ganges, generally declining in Asian basins, but
increasing in African basins before declining
Yield growth is expected to contribute most to future
productivity growth in river basins; only in African
basins will area expansion still play an important role
as well; in Asian basins, area is expected to slightly
contract
Rainfed production dominates African basins—95% in
the region, 99% in the Volta
Rainfed crop yields in African basins generally lower
compared to Asian basins (because of better rainfall
and better access to other inputs); however, yields are
also low in the Ganges

26. Selected Insights
Developing countries account for almost all of future
income growth and increase in food demand,
including livestock demand
Coupled with growing resource scarcity on the supply
side [water, land, climate-related, energy], developing
countries and basins will need to increasingly rely on
net food imports
Increasing food prices as a result of scarcity on the
supply side and rapid growth on the demand side
[food, & non-food] reduce access to food and increase
childhood malnutrition among the poorest populations
in many African and selected Asian countries
[particularly those who spend > 50% of income on
food]

27. MOTIVATION – Increased Competition for Water
CHANGE
GROWTH
- Technologies
- Economy
- Environment
- Population Agr
- Urbanization
Ind Quantity Dom
Quality
Env
ENVIRONMENT
- social ENVIRONMENT
- legal - physical
- political - technical
- institutional - economic

28. An Example of a Typical River Basin
Precipitation
Fishing
Ev Hydropower Forest
ap
o ra
tio
Reservoir
n
/T
ra
ns
Runoff River Basin Boundary
p ira
tio
n Industry
Rura Urba
Rainfed Agr l n
Return FlowWSS WSS
Irrigation
Recreation
Groundwater Inflow
Community
Use
Navigation
Infiltration / Recharge
Base Flow / Pumping
Wetlands / Environment
Groundwater Livestock
there is a need to understand how one Irrigation
use/r affects other uses and users Groundwater Outflow
Figure based on Rao 2005 Ocean

29. TYPES OF RIVER BASIN MODELS
• Hydrologic simulation models are important for
real-time operation of dams & river systems
• Economic optimization models are important for
investment calculations
• Optimization in simulation models is generally of
limited use for water allocation based on economic
efficiency purposes
• Economic models without sufficient hydrologic
representation are also of limited use
• Joint hydrologic-economic models can be used for
strategic decision-making in river basins

30. Physical Social
Geography Environment Politics
Geology Economics
Climatology Water Water Sociology
Meteorology Resources Demand Law
Ecology Institutions
. ..
Hydrology
Water Resources Management
Control (Hard) Technology Adaptive (Soft) Technology
Water
Supply
Flood
Control
Hydro
Power
... Fees
Taxes
Subsi- Water
dies Rights
...
Solutions
Source: Klemes, 1999 Feedbacks

31. POLICY ANALYSIS AT THE BASIN LEVEL
National or National or regional policies on water
Regional agencies and economic development
Basin policieson multiple
purposes of water use, water supply,
Basin (sub-basin) authority hydropower, environmental
and ecological requirements,
water quality, flooding control,
capacity expansion and O&M
Administrative units
(states or provinces,
Inter-regional agreements on
counties or cities)
water allocation and water trade
Inter-sectoral water allocation,
Irrigation Urban areas water right and markets,
districts water prices and O&M cost,
water use agreements,
Farms On-farm water management

32. CONCLUSIONS
• Effects of policies and
developments in one part of the
basin for the entire basin can be
analyzed
• Impacts of non-water and non-
irrigation water policies on the
basin can be examined

33. MODEL CHALLENGES
Can be data-intensive to adequately model human
behavior
Difficult, but not impossible to link water uses to
poverty outcomes
Focus on productive water uses manipulated by
humans, and less on rainfed water management
[where a lot of poverty persists], but the latter can
be represented if it rainfed agriculture results in
changes in inflows
Difficult but feasible to link to land cover models
Stakeholder input is essential
Long-term models needed to assess dynamics and
cumulative environmental impacts