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The best Certification Study 
Guides 
Preparing 
Students 
for the 
21st Century
I. How is the world 
changing?
Forces changing skill 
demands 
• Automation 
• Globalization 
• Workplace change 
• Demographic change 
• Personal risk and 
responsibility 
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Automation 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
What kinds of work can 
computers do? 
• Follow routine directions: Any job where 
information can be digitized and key tasks 
can be broken down into a set of predictable 
rules. 
– EG, Airline reservations, tickets, boarding passes. 
Now you can complete the whole process without 
ever talking to a human being! 
• Recognize simple patterns. 
– EG, On the telephone, recognizing simple 
sentences in response to prompts, then providing 
the appropriate information or connecting to the 
appropriate human. 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Changing mix of jobs in the 
economy 
12% 
14% 
38% 
18% 
8% 
22% 
25% 
33% 
12% 
14% 
40% 
0% 
Blue collar 
workers 
Admin support 
workers 
Sales related 
occupations 
Technicians, 
professionals, 
managers, 
administrators 
Service 
workers 
1969 1999 
Percent of employed adults 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Job tasks are changing across the 
economy 
14 
12 
10 
8 
6 
4 
2 
0 
-2 
-4 
-6 
-8 
-10 
1969 1980 1990 1998 
Percentile Change in 1969 Distribution 
Complex Communication 
Expert Thinking 
Routine Manual 
Routine Thinking 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
What kinds of work can’t 
computers do (yet)? 
• Non-routine manual labor: 
– EG, driving a truck, security guard, etc. 
• Non-routine thinking work: 
– “Expert Thinking”—The ability to solve unexpected 
problems for which there are no predictable and 
programmable rule-based solutions. 
– “Complex Communications”—Interacting with other 
people to acquire information, explain it, or persuade with 
it. 
– Doing both well also requires creativity, which computers 
also are not very good at. 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Automation has big 
consequences for education 
• Computers can follow directions better, faster, and 
cheaper than human beings, and the number of 
tasks computers can do grows every year. 
• Any curriculum that emphasizes following directions 
to find a single correct answer is, by definition, 
preparing students for jobs that probably will not 
exist by the time those students graduate. 
“To educate our children to compete with either a computer [is 
to educate them for] a competition they cannot win.” 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Globalization
Work can increasingly be done anywhere … and 
there are more workers who can do it! 
• Technological advances (internet, interactive 
software, digital technologies) allow work to be 
carved up and shipped around globe. 
• Historic political and economic changes around the 
globe freed up more than 1 billion people—in places 
like Russia, Eastern Europe, China, India, etc.—who 
could potentially compete for that work. 
“The result is a world in which it is just as easy to create work 
teams composed of people on four continents as it is to create 
work teams composed of people from four divisions of the same 
firm located in the same city.” 
—the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce (2007) 
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Implications for your 
students 
“Suddenly more people from more different places could 
collaborate with more other people on more different kinds of 
work and share more different kinds of knowledge than ever 
before.” 
—Thomas Friedman (2005) 
“Highly skilled people with roughly the same qualifications are 
competing directly with each other, no matter where they are 
located on the globe.” 
—the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce (2007) 
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National implications, too: 
Human capital has a big impact on economic 
growth 
• If the U.S. improved students’ performance on 
international tests to the level of top performing 
nations, its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would 
be: 
– An additional 5 percent higher 32 years from now (enough 
to entirely pay for K-12 education), and 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Impact of higher math & science scores on economic growth, 
projections through 2064 
If it took 10 years 
to meet goal 
If it took 20 years 
to meet goal 
If it took 30 years 
To reach goal 
Total U.S. 
K-12 spending 
40 
30 
20 
10 
0 
Percent addition to GDP from raising 
U.S. math and science scores to near 
top in the world 
1989 
1994 
1999 
2004 
2014 
2019 
2024 
2029 
2034 
2039 
2044 
2049 
2054 
2059 
2064 
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Workplace change 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Major shifts in the workplace 
• Companies focusing more on providing information 
than “things.” 
• Companies are “flatter,” with less hierarchy and 
less direct supervision. 
• Employees have more autonomy and responsibility. 
• Work is much more collaborative. 
• Jobs are less routine, predictable, and stable. 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Growth of the information-service economy 
19% 
35% 
11% 
36% 
11% 
56% 
7% 
27% 
60% 
0% 
Material products Material services Information 
products 
Information 
services 
1967 1997 
Share of US GDP 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
More collaboration in the 
workplace 
In top 1,000 
companies: 
Use of self-managing 
work teams rose from 
28% in 1988 to 65% in 
2005. 
Work teams are 
increasingly global. 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Work has become more 
challenging … and more 
satisfying 
27% 
66% 
28% 
32% 
45% 
20% 
69% 
45% 
62% 
55% 
75% 
0% 
My job lets me use 
my skills and 
abilities 
It is basically my 
responsibility to 
decide how my 
job gets done 
My job requires 
that I learn new 
things 
My job requires 
that I be creative 
The work I do is 
meaningful to me 
1977 2002 
Percent of workers who “strongly agree” 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Demographic change 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
A more diverse population: “Minorities” will be U.S. 
majority in about 30 Years 
42% 
45% 47% 49% 
51% 
54% 
34% 
38% 40% 
35% 
100% 
75% 
50% 
25% 
0% 
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 
Percent of population NOT non-Hispanic white 
Source: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. 
Department of Labor. (Table 3: Projections of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States 2008 to 2050) 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
More diverse population 
Year in which “minorities” will 
become the majority of … 
• Entire U.S. population = 2042 
• Working-age population = 2039 
• School-age population = 2023 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
More diverse population 
Implications: 
• Schools will need to be able to educate a more 
diverse student population 
• Schools will need to prepare students to interact in a 
more diverse society and collaborate in a more 
diverse work environment 
– More diverse U.S. society, which will be reflected in the 
workplace, but also … 
– International collaboration, global work teams 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Aging population 
• By the time the last Baby Boomer reaches 65 in 
2030, nearly one out of five U.S. residents will be 65 
or older. 
• Between 2008 and 2050 … 
– The 65 and older population will DOUBLE 
– The 85 and older population will TRIPLE 
Source: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. 
Department of Labor. 
“Fewer of us will have to support many more of us 
than has ever been the case before.”
Personal risk and responsibility
Shift in corporate benefit policies 
Individuals now shoulder more responsibility 
for personal well-being: 
• Job security: employment more contingent on 
performance than loyalty 
• Financial planning: more 401(k)s, fewer defined-benefit 
plans 
• Health care: consumers increasingly called on to 
choose own coverage & care
Employment is less secure: Those who cannot 
perform will not keep their jobs 
67% 
77% 
5% 
60% 
29% 
16% 
80% 
0% 
Rewards tied 
to seniority 
Loyalty to 
company is 
rewarded 
Continued 
employment 
based on 
developing 
skills & 
knowledge 
Rewards tied 
to individual 
performance 
Rewards tied 
to group 
and/or 
company 
performance 
Continued 
employment 
based on 
performance 
In the late 1980s, 56% of 
corporate managers said 
loyal employees deserve 
continued employment. 
Percent of managers responding “true” to 
“great” or “very great” extent 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Retirement coverage is shifting toward 
individually controlled investments 
Pension plans with investments controlled by 
employers are being replaced by IRAs and 401(k)s 
that require individuals to make at least some 
investment decisions. 
Retirement was once something that workers did not 
have to think a lot about. Today, they do have to think 
about it, and how well they think about can have huge 
consequences for their future well-being.
Consumers are asked to make own decisions 
about health care and costs 
• Health coverage choices are more complicated and 
varied 
• Information about the quality of health care providers 
and treatment effectiveness is more transparent and 
accessible 
“Consumers therefore require more knowledge and 
greater skill to take full advantage of new sources of 
information and to make appropriate choices.”
II. What kind of knowledge and skills will 
young people need?
More important in the 21st Century 
• Postsecondary education and training 
• Academic knowledge and skills 
• Practical literacies: The ability to use knowledge 
of math, English, science, civics etc. to meet 
real-world challenges. 
• Broader competencies: Critical thinking and 
problem solving, communications and 
collaboration, creativity, self-sufficiency etc.
Occupations requiring more education are 
predicted to grow faster 
7.7 
14.8 
10.5 
16 
0 
High school or less Some college or postsec 
training 
Bachelor's or higher 
Percent change, 2006-16 
Projected growth in jobs requiring …
Nearly two-thirds of new jobs will require 
postsecondary education or training 
High school or less Some college or postsec training Bachelor's or higher 
36% 
33% 
31% 
New jobs, 
2006-2016: 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Earnings boost for college degree has grown 
immensely 
53% 
Change in average family income from 1973 to 2006: 
13%- 
6% 
14% 
40% 
50% 
30% 
10% 
-10% 
-30% 
H.S. dropout H.S. graduate Some college Bachelor's Graduate or 
professional 
degree 
Percent change in constant dollars
Income inequality has increased massively over last 
40 years driven by demand for high-skilled workers 
$186,529 
$101,467 
$57,464 
$42,847 
$29,810 
$13,331 
$38,304 
$61,444 
$91,881 
$16,068 
$200,000 
$150,000 
$100,000 
$50,000 
$0 
Lowest fifth Second fifth Middle fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth 
Income group 
Family income in 2007 dollars 
1967 2007
Academics count: Preparing students for college 
and work 
• Completing advanced math courses in high school has a greater 
influence on whether students will graduate from college than any 
other factor, including family background; students who take math 
beyond Algebra II double their chances of earning a bachelor’s degree. 
• Just taking advanced math has a direct impact on future earnings, 
apart from any other factors; students who take advanced math have 
higher incomes ten years after graduating—regardless of family 
background, classroom grades, and college degrees. 
• Recent studies suggest that higher math skills at the end of high 
school* translates into a 12 percent boost in wages. (* Scoring one 
standard deviation higher on a standardized math test.) 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Advanced math improves 
earnings 
5.5% 
Due to college completion boost Due to cognitive boost 
3.1% 
3.2% 
4.2% 
6.5% 
4.6% 4.6% 0.7% 
1.6% 
3.0% 
15% 
0% 
Pre-algebra Algebra/ 
geometry 
Algebra II Trig/ Pre-cal Calculus 
Increase in earnings associated with math course 
taken in high school 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Math skills are more consistently related to 
postsecondary success than other competencies 
0.005 
0.015 
0.018 
0.003 
0.007 
0.000 
0.001 
0.008 
0.017 
0.010 
0.002 
0.024 
0.015 
0.037 
0.029 
0.011 
0.004 
0.029 
0.040 
0.030 
0.020 
0.010 
0.000 
Enroll in postsecondary ed Earn a bachelor's degree Earnings 
Marginal impact of 10 percentage point increase in each 
competency 
Math test score Work habits Sports-related competencies 
Prosocial behavior Leadership roles Locus of control 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
The screening test for electrician 
apprenticeships
Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger 
math & reading 
“Don't be influenced by those who see the electrical 
construction trade as an occupation requiring only a 
strong back and a weak mind. The electrical trades 
are becoming more technical each day.” 
—Website of the Electrical Training Institute of Southern California 
“If you want to work in the real world, if you want to 
wire buildings and plumb buildings, that's when it 
requires algebra.” 
—Don Davis, executive director of the Electrical Training Institute of 
Southern California (Los Angeles Times, January 30, 2006)
Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger 
math & reading 
ACT Study: The math and reading skills required 
for electricians, construction workers, 
upholsterers, and plumbers same as what’s 
necessary to succeed in first-year college 
courses! 
ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: 
Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006 
… but those skills are also increasingly 
important OUTSIDE of jobs! 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Financial planning: Major shift in retirement 
coverage 
11% 
61% 
28% 
60% 
17% 
23% 
75% 
0% 
Defined benefit only Defined contribution only Both 
Percent of private sector workers with pension coverage 
1980 2004
Health care: Numeracy matters 
Patients with lower math literacy: 
• Have worse understanding of risks and make worse decisions about 
the benefits of mammography and experimental cancer treatments ; 
• Have a harder time taking prescribed medications (inhaled steroids, 
anticoagulation drugs) and as a result worse health outcomes and 
more hospitalizations ; 
• Have a harder time comprehending nutrition labels important for 
patients with chronic illnesses like hypertension and diabetes ; 
• Have a harder time comprehending information about health 
coverage options and make less informed choices about health 
plans ; and 
• Choose lower quality hospitals than more numerate patients when 
given the same information on medical outcomes.
Stronger literacy, more job success and more 
civic engagement! 
68% 
73% 
56% 54% 
45% 
73% 
76% 
86% 
57% 
84% 
45% 
41% 
18% 
62% 
31% 
57% 
100% 
0% 
Employed Earn $500+ per week Volunteered in past 
year 
Voted in last 
presidential election 
Percentage of U.S. adults by prose literacy level 
Below basic Basic Intermediate Proficient 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Broad competencies: Employers expect them to 
become more important 
64% 
67% 
67% 
66% 
75% 
75% 
74% 
74% 
64% 
64% 
64% 
63% 
Critical thinking/Problem solving 
Information technology application 
Teamwork/Collaboration 
Creativity/Innovation 
Handling diversity 
Leadership 
Oral communications 
Work ethic 
Ethics 
Written communications 
Self-direction/Lifelong learning 
Foreign languages 
50% 75% 
Percent of employers who believe skill will become more important over next five years
Broad Competencies: Which are most 
critical? The 3 C’s! 
• Critical thinking and problem solving 
– Labor economists Levy & Murnane call it “expert thinking” 
• Communication/Collaboration 
– Levy and Murnane call it “complex communications” 
• Creativity 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Solve This Problem 
Suppose you are a doctor faced with a patient who has a 
malignant tumor in his stomach. It is impossible to operate on 
the patient, but unless the tumor is destroyed the patient will 
die. There is a kind of ray that can be used to destroy the 
tumor. If the rays reach the tumor all at once at a sufficiently 
high intensity, the tumor will be destroyed. Unfortunately, at 
this intensity the healthy tissue that the rays pass through on 
the way to the tumor will also be destroyed. At lower 
intensities the rays are harmless to healthy tissue, but they will 
not affect the tumor either. What type of procedure might be 
used to destroy the tumor with the rays, and at the same time 
avoid destroying the healthy tissue?
Critical Thinking & Problem Solving: Important for 
high school grads entering workforce 
• Nearly 60% of employers rate critical thinking and problem 
solving as “very important” for h.s. grads entering the 
workforce … yet 70% of employers rate them “deficient” in 
those skills. 
• While 73% of school superintendents think h.s. grads meet 
expectations for “problem solving,” only 45% percent of 
employers think so. 
• 78% of employers expect critical thinking/problem solving to 
become even more important in the near future. 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Here’s another problem 
A small country was ruled from a strong fortress by a dictator. 
The fortress was situated in the middle of the country, 
surrounded by farms and villages. Many roads led to the 
fortress through the countryside. A rebel general vowed to 
capture the fortress. The general knew that an attack by his 
entire army would capture the fortress. He gathered his army 
at the head of one of the roads, ready to launch a full-scale 
direct attack. 
However, the general then learned that the dictator had planted 
mines on each of the roads. The mines were set so that small 
bodies of men could pass over them safely, since the dictator 
needed to move his troops and workers to and from the 
fortress. However, any large force would detonate the mines. 
Not only would this blow up the road, but it would also destroy 
many neighboring villages. It therefore seemed impossible to 
capture the fortress.
Did you see the pattern? 
• Both problems have essentially the same answer: 
Dispersal of strength and re-gathering of strength 
at the point of attack. 
• Solving problems is hard because you get stuck on 
the surface facts and don’t see the deeper patterns 
and relationships. 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
Critical Thinking & Problem Solving: Require deep 
content knowledge 
• Cognitive scientists used to believe that “thinking 
skills” could be taught directly and then applied to 
any situation. 
• Now they believe that’s wrong. Critical thinking is 
not a generic skill, but rather tied closely to 
contextual knowledge—deep understanding of the 
topic in question. 
• What is “deep knowledge”? Getting below the 
surface: 
– WHATs: Factual knowledge about the field, and 
– WHYs & HOWs: How those facts fit together, how and why 
things are the way they are, and how things work the way 
they do.
Communication & Collaboration: Which 
interpersonal skills need most work? 
47% 
21% 
12% 
28% 
10% 8% 
81% 
35% 
54% 
100% 
0% 
Written communications Oral communications Teamwork/collaboration 
Percentage of employers rating entrants as "deficient" 
H.S. grads 2-yr college grads 4-yr college grads
Communication & Collaboration: What are the 
most critical sub-skills?
Creativity: Superintendents and employers define it 
differently 
23% 
48% 
14% 
47% 
24% 
37% 
60% 
0% 
Problem identification or 
articulation 
Problem solving Comfort with "no right 
answer" 
Percent choosing skill among top three for demonstrating 
creativity 
Employers Superintendents 
Top choice Top choice
Creativity: Superintendents and employers have 
different views of H.S. grads’ creativity skills 
57% 58% 
75% 
33% 
35% 
56% 
80% 
0% 
Comfort with "no right 
answer" 
Ability to identify new 
patterns of behavior or 
new combinations of 
action 
Fundamental curiosity 
Percent who say H.S. grads meet expectations 
Employers Superintendents 
http://www.allpass4sure.com/
III. Implications for schools
Five big takeaways 
• Students who obtain more education will be at a great advantage; increasingly, some 
postsecondary education or technical training is essential for an opportunity to support a 
family or secure a middle-class lifestyle. 
• The need for traditional knowledge and skills in school subjects like math, language arts, and 
science is not being “displaced” by a new set of “thinking skills”; in fact, students who take 
more advanced math courses and master higher math skills, for example, will have a distinct 
advantage over their peers. 
• At the same time, for success both on the job and in their personal lives, students must also 
better learn how to apply what they learn in those subjects to deal with real world challenges, 
rather than simply “reproduce” the information on tests. 
• Students who develop an even broader set of in-demand competencies—the ability to think 
critically about information, solve novel problems, communicate and collaborate, create new 
products and processes, and adapt to change—will be at an even greater advantage in work 
and life. 
• Applied skills and competencies can best be taught in the context of the academic 
curriculum, not as a replacement for it or “add on” to it; in fact, cognitive research suggests 
that some competencies like critical thinking and problem solving are highly dependent on 
deep content knowledge and cannot be taught in isolation.
And when it comes to competencies … 
clarity counts! 
Don’t assume “everyone knows” what [critical 
thinking/collaboration/creativity] is. Ask these questions: 
1) Is there a shared definition of [critical 
thinking/collaboration/creativity] in your district, or is 
everyone free to define it however they want? 
2) Does the definition match the real world demand for that skill, 
e.g., the way employers define it? 
3) Is the definition detailed and specific enough so that teachers 
and students and other stakeholders really understand what 
is expected of them? 
4) Are these skills incorporated into the curriculum, or have you 
just asked teachers to “address them” somehow?
A few policy implications 
• Curriculum 
– Integrate into curriculum instead of purchasing stand-alone 
“thinking skills” programs: They don’t work. 
– Where is the time for deeper understanding, real world 
application, problem solving? 
– Focus: U.S. tends to have a curriculum that is “a mile 
wide and an inch deep”—shallow and repetitive 
• EG, U.S. math textbooks cover almost twice as many topics 
per grade as Singapore’s. In Singapore, students expected to 
complete about one thorough lesson on a single topic per 
week; in U.S., about one lesson on a narrowly focused topic 
each day 
– More time to explore subjects through open ended 
problems, collaborative projects, creativity
A Few Policy Implications 
• Assessment 
– Teaching to the state test is too narrow: 
• EG, Recent study found that math tests in 10 states had 
too few complex problem solving questions to even 
measure whether there is a gender gap in such skills let 
alone whether students are being adequately prepared for 
real world work. 
– Supplement with more challenging local assessments 
(other countries do that). 
– Find early ways to gauge college preparedness, EG 
ACT’s EPAS system. 
– For problem solving and applied literacy, key is to 
challenge students with less structured, more open 
ended problems in each subject. OECD’s Programme 
for International Student Assessment (PISA) 
framework and items can be helpful.
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Best IT Training and Certification Resources

  • 1. The best Certification Study Guides Preparing Students for the 21st Century
  • 2. I. How is the world changing?
  • 3. Forces changing skill demands • Automation • Globalization • Workplace change • Demographic change • Personal risk and responsibility http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 5. What kinds of work can computers do? • Follow routine directions: Any job where information can be digitized and key tasks can be broken down into a set of predictable rules. – EG, Airline reservations, tickets, boarding passes. Now you can complete the whole process without ever talking to a human being! • Recognize simple patterns. – EG, On the telephone, recognizing simple sentences in response to prompts, then providing the appropriate information or connecting to the appropriate human. http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 6. Changing mix of jobs in the economy 12% 14% 38% 18% 8% 22% 25% 33% 12% 14% 40% 0% Blue collar workers Admin support workers Sales related occupations Technicians, professionals, managers, administrators Service workers 1969 1999 Percent of employed adults http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 7. Job tasks are changing across the economy 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 1969 1980 1990 1998 Percentile Change in 1969 Distribution Complex Communication Expert Thinking Routine Manual Routine Thinking http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 8. What kinds of work can’t computers do (yet)? • Non-routine manual labor: – EG, driving a truck, security guard, etc. • Non-routine thinking work: – “Expert Thinking”—The ability to solve unexpected problems for which there are no predictable and programmable rule-based solutions. – “Complex Communications”—Interacting with other people to acquire information, explain it, or persuade with it. – Doing both well also requires creativity, which computers also are not very good at. http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 9. Automation has big consequences for education • Computers can follow directions better, faster, and cheaper than human beings, and the number of tasks computers can do grows every year. • Any curriculum that emphasizes following directions to find a single correct answer is, by definition, preparing students for jobs that probably will not exist by the time those students graduate. “To educate our children to compete with either a computer [is to educate them for] a competition they cannot win.” http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 11. Work can increasingly be done anywhere … and there are more workers who can do it! • Technological advances (internet, interactive software, digital technologies) allow work to be carved up and shipped around globe. • Historic political and economic changes around the globe freed up more than 1 billion people—in places like Russia, Eastern Europe, China, India, etc.—who could potentially compete for that work. “The result is a world in which it is just as easy to create work teams composed of people on four continents as it is to create work teams composed of people from four divisions of the same firm located in the same city.” —the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce (2007) http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 12. Implications for your students “Suddenly more people from more different places could collaborate with more other people on more different kinds of work and share more different kinds of knowledge than ever before.” —Thomas Friedman (2005) “Highly skilled people with roughly the same qualifications are competing directly with each other, no matter where they are located on the globe.” —the New Commission on the Skills of the American workforce (2007) http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 13. National implications, too: Human capital has a big impact on economic growth • If the U.S. improved students’ performance on international tests to the level of top performing nations, its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be: – An additional 5 percent higher 32 years from now (enough to entirely pay for K-12 education), and http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 14. Impact of higher math & science scores on economic growth, projections through 2064 If it took 10 years to meet goal If it took 20 years to meet goal If it took 30 years To reach goal Total U.S. K-12 spending 40 30 20 10 0 Percent addition to GDP from raising U.S. math and science scores to near top in the world 1989 1994 1999 2004 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2044 2049 2054 2059 2064 http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 16. Major shifts in the workplace • Companies focusing more on providing information than “things.” • Companies are “flatter,” with less hierarchy and less direct supervision. • Employees have more autonomy and responsibility. • Work is much more collaborative. • Jobs are less routine, predictable, and stable. http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 17. Growth of the information-service economy 19% 35% 11% 36% 11% 56% 7% 27% 60% 0% Material products Material services Information products Information services 1967 1997 Share of US GDP http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 18. More collaboration in the workplace In top 1,000 companies: Use of self-managing work teams rose from 28% in 1988 to 65% in 2005. Work teams are increasingly global. http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 19. Work has become more challenging … and more satisfying 27% 66% 28% 32% 45% 20% 69% 45% 62% 55% 75% 0% My job lets me use my skills and abilities It is basically my responsibility to decide how my job gets done My job requires that I learn new things My job requires that I be creative The work I do is meaningful to me 1977 2002 Percent of workers who “strongly agree” http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 21. A more diverse population: “Minorities” will be U.S. majority in about 30 Years 42% 45% 47% 49% 51% 54% 34% 38% 40% 35% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Percent of population NOT non-Hispanic white Source: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. (Table 3: Projections of the Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States 2008 to 2050) http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 22. More diverse population Year in which “minorities” will become the majority of … • Entire U.S. population = 2042 • Working-age population = 2039 • School-age population = 2023 http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 23. More diverse population Implications: • Schools will need to be able to educate a more diverse student population • Schools will need to prepare students to interact in a more diverse society and collaborate in a more diverse work environment – More diverse U.S. society, which will be reflected in the workplace, but also … – International collaboration, global work teams http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 24. Aging population • By the time the last Baby Boomer reaches 65 in 2030, nearly one out of five U.S. residents will be 65 or older. • Between 2008 and 2050 … – The 65 and older population will DOUBLE – The 85 and older population will TRIPLE Source: Census Bureau. (2008, August 14). An older and more diverse nation by mid-century. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Labor. “Fewer of us will have to support many more of us than has ever been the case before.”
  • 25. Personal risk and responsibility
  • 26. Shift in corporate benefit policies Individuals now shoulder more responsibility for personal well-being: • Job security: employment more contingent on performance than loyalty • Financial planning: more 401(k)s, fewer defined-benefit plans • Health care: consumers increasingly called on to choose own coverage & care
  • 27. Employment is less secure: Those who cannot perform will not keep their jobs 67% 77% 5% 60% 29% 16% 80% 0% Rewards tied to seniority Loyalty to company is rewarded Continued employment based on developing skills & knowledge Rewards tied to individual performance Rewards tied to group and/or company performance Continued employment based on performance In the late 1980s, 56% of corporate managers said loyal employees deserve continued employment. Percent of managers responding “true” to “great” or “very great” extent http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 28. Retirement coverage is shifting toward individually controlled investments Pension plans with investments controlled by employers are being replaced by IRAs and 401(k)s that require individuals to make at least some investment decisions. Retirement was once something that workers did not have to think a lot about. Today, they do have to think about it, and how well they think about can have huge consequences for their future well-being.
  • 29. Consumers are asked to make own decisions about health care and costs • Health coverage choices are more complicated and varied • Information about the quality of health care providers and treatment effectiveness is more transparent and accessible “Consumers therefore require more knowledge and greater skill to take full advantage of new sources of information and to make appropriate choices.”
  • 30. II. What kind of knowledge and skills will young people need?
  • 31. More important in the 21st Century • Postsecondary education and training • Academic knowledge and skills • Practical literacies: The ability to use knowledge of math, English, science, civics etc. to meet real-world challenges. • Broader competencies: Critical thinking and problem solving, communications and collaboration, creativity, self-sufficiency etc.
  • 32. Occupations requiring more education are predicted to grow faster 7.7 14.8 10.5 16 0 High school or less Some college or postsec training Bachelor's or higher Percent change, 2006-16 Projected growth in jobs requiring …
  • 33. Nearly two-thirds of new jobs will require postsecondary education or training High school or less Some college or postsec training Bachelor's or higher 36% 33% 31% New jobs, 2006-2016: http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 34. Earnings boost for college degree has grown immensely 53% Change in average family income from 1973 to 2006: 13%- 6% 14% 40% 50% 30% 10% -10% -30% H.S. dropout H.S. graduate Some college Bachelor's Graduate or professional degree Percent change in constant dollars
  • 35. Income inequality has increased massively over last 40 years driven by demand for high-skilled workers $186,529 $101,467 $57,464 $42,847 $29,810 $13,331 $38,304 $61,444 $91,881 $16,068 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Lowest fifth Second fifth Middle fifth Fourth fifth Highest fifth Income group Family income in 2007 dollars 1967 2007
  • 36. Academics count: Preparing students for college and work • Completing advanced math courses in high school has a greater influence on whether students will graduate from college than any other factor, including family background; students who take math beyond Algebra II double their chances of earning a bachelor’s degree. • Just taking advanced math has a direct impact on future earnings, apart from any other factors; students who take advanced math have higher incomes ten years after graduating—regardless of family background, classroom grades, and college degrees. • Recent studies suggest that higher math skills at the end of high school* translates into a 12 percent boost in wages. (* Scoring one standard deviation higher on a standardized math test.) http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 37. Advanced math improves earnings 5.5% Due to college completion boost Due to cognitive boost 3.1% 3.2% 4.2% 6.5% 4.6% 4.6% 0.7% 1.6% 3.0% 15% 0% Pre-algebra Algebra/ geometry Algebra II Trig/ Pre-cal Calculus Increase in earnings associated with math course taken in high school http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 38. Math skills are more consistently related to postsecondary success than other competencies 0.005 0.015 0.018 0.003 0.007 0.000 0.001 0.008 0.017 0.010 0.002 0.024 0.015 0.037 0.029 0.011 0.004 0.029 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.010 0.000 Enroll in postsecondary ed Earn a bachelor's degree Earnings Marginal impact of 10 percentage point increase in each competency Math test score Work habits Sports-related competencies Prosocial behavior Leadership roles Locus of control http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 39. The screening test for electrician apprenticeships
  • 40. Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger math & reading “Don't be influenced by those who see the electrical construction trade as an occupation requiring only a strong back and a weak mind. The electrical trades are becoming more technical each day.” —Website of the Electrical Training Institute of Southern California “If you want to work in the real world, if you want to wire buildings and plumb buildings, that's when it requires algebra.” —Don Davis, executive director of the Electrical Training Institute of Southern California (Los Angeles Times, January 30, 2006)
  • 41. Trades becoming more technical, requiring stronger math & reading ACT Study: The math and reading skills required for electricians, construction workers, upholsterers, and plumbers same as what’s necessary to succeed in first-year college courses! ACT, Readiness for College and Readiness for Work: Same or Different, Iowa City, IA. 2006 … but those skills are also increasingly important OUTSIDE of jobs! http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 42. Financial planning: Major shift in retirement coverage 11% 61% 28% 60% 17% 23% 75% 0% Defined benefit only Defined contribution only Both Percent of private sector workers with pension coverage 1980 2004
  • 43. Health care: Numeracy matters Patients with lower math literacy: • Have worse understanding of risks and make worse decisions about the benefits of mammography and experimental cancer treatments ; • Have a harder time taking prescribed medications (inhaled steroids, anticoagulation drugs) and as a result worse health outcomes and more hospitalizations ; • Have a harder time comprehending nutrition labels important for patients with chronic illnesses like hypertension and diabetes ; • Have a harder time comprehending information about health coverage options and make less informed choices about health plans ; and • Choose lower quality hospitals than more numerate patients when given the same information on medical outcomes.
  • 44. Stronger literacy, more job success and more civic engagement! 68% 73% 56% 54% 45% 73% 76% 86% 57% 84% 45% 41% 18% 62% 31% 57% 100% 0% Employed Earn $500+ per week Volunteered in past year Voted in last presidential election Percentage of U.S. adults by prose literacy level Below basic Basic Intermediate Proficient http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 45. Broad competencies: Employers expect them to become more important 64% 67% 67% 66% 75% 75% 74% 74% 64% 64% 64% 63% Critical thinking/Problem solving Information technology application Teamwork/Collaboration Creativity/Innovation Handling diversity Leadership Oral communications Work ethic Ethics Written communications Self-direction/Lifelong learning Foreign languages 50% 75% Percent of employers who believe skill will become more important over next five years
  • 46. Broad Competencies: Which are most critical? The 3 C’s! • Critical thinking and problem solving – Labor economists Levy & Murnane call it “expert thinking” • Communication/Collaboration – Levy and Murnane call it “complex communications” • Creativity http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 47. Solve This Problem Suppose you are a doctor faced with a patient who has a malignant tumor in his stomach. It is impossible to operate on the patient, but unless the tumor is destroyed the patient will die. There is a kind of ray that can be used to destroy the tumor. If the rays reach the tumor all at once at a sufficiently high intensity, the tumor will be destroyed. Unfortunately, at this intensity the healthy tissue that the rays pass through on the way to the tumor will also be destroyed. At lower intensities the rays are harmless to healthy tissue, but they will not affect the tumor either. What type of procedure might be used to destroy the tumor with the rays, and at the same time avoid destroying the healthy tissue?
  • 48. Critical Thinking & Problem Solving: Important for high school grads entering workforce • Nearly 60% of employers rate critical thinking and problem solving as “very important” for h.s. grads entering the workforce … yet 70% of employers rate them “deficient” in those skills. • While 73% of school superintendents think h.s. grads meet expectations for “problem solving,” only 45% percent of employers think so. • 78% of employers expect critical thinking/problem solving to become even more important in the near future. http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 49. Here’s another problem A small country was ruled from a strong fortress by a dictator. The fortress was situated in the middle of the country, surrounded by farms and villages. Many roads led to the fortress through the countryside. A rebel general vowed to capture the fortress. The general knew that an attack by his entire army would capture the fortress. He gathered his army at the head of one of the roads, ready to launch a full-scale direct attack. However, the general then learned that the dictator had planted mines on each of the roads. The mines were set so that small bodies of men could pass over them safely, since the dictator needed to move his troops and workers to and from the fortress. However, any large force would detonate the mines. Not only would this blow up the road, but it would also destroy many neighboring villages. It therefore seemed impossible to capture the fortress.
  • 50. Did you see the pattern? • Both problems have essentially the same answer: Dispersal of strength and re-gathering of strength at the point of attack. • Solving problems is hard because you get stuck on the surface facts and don’t see the deeper patterns and relationships. http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 51. Critical Thinking & Problem Solving: Require deep content knowledge • Cognitive scientists used to believe that “thinking skills” could be taught directly and then applied to any situation. • Now they believe that’s wrong. Critical thinking is not a generic skill, but rather tied closely to contextual knowledge—deep understanding of the topic in question. • What is “deep knowledge”? Getting below the surface: – WHATs: Factual knowledge about the field, and – WHYs & HOWs: How those facts fit together, how and why things are the way they are, and how things work the way they do.
  • 52. Communication & Collaboration: Which interpersonal skills need most work? 47% 21% 12% 28% 10% 8% 81% 35% 54% 100% 0% Written communications Oral communications Teamwork/collaboration Percentage of employers rating entrants as "deficient" H.S. grads 2-yr college grads 4-yr college grads
  • 53. Communication & Collaboration: What are the most critical sub-skills?
  • 54. Creativity: Superintendents and employers define it differently 23% 48% 14% 47% 24% 37% 60% 0% Problem identification or articulation Problem solving Comfort with "no right answer" Percent choosing skill among top three for demonstrating creativity Employers Superintendents Top choice Top choice
  • 55. Creativity: Superintendents and employers have different views of H.S. grads’ creativity skills 57% 58% 75% 33% 35% 56% 80% 0% Comfort with "no right answer" Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new combinations of action Fundamental curiosity Percent who say H.S. grads meet expectations Employers Superintendents http://www.allpass4sure.com/
  • 57. Five big takeaways • Students who obtain more education will be at a great advantage; increasingly, some postsecondary education or technical training is essential for an opportunity to support a family or secure a middle-class lifestyle. • The need for traditional knowledge and skills in school subjects like math, language arts, and science is not being “displaced” by a new set of “thinking skills”; in fact, students who take more advanced math courses and master higher math skills, for example, will have a distinct advantage over their peers. • At the same time, for success both on the job and in their personal lives, students must also better learn how to apply what they learn in those subjects to deal with real world challenges, rather than simply “reproduce” the information on tests. • Students who develop an even broader set of in-demand competencies—the ability to think critically about information, solve novel problems, communicate and collaborate, create new products and processes, and adapt to change—will be at an even greater advantage in work and life. • Applied skills and competencies can best be taught in the context of the academic curriculum, not as a replacement for it or “add on” to it; in fact, cognitive research suggests that some competencies like critical thinking and problem solving are highly dependent on deep content knowledge and cannot be taught in isolation.
  • 58. And when it comes to competencies … clarity counts! Don’t assume “everyone knows” what [critical thinking/collaboration/creativity] is. Ask these questions: 1) Is there a shared definition of [critical thinking/collaboration/creativity] in your district, or is everyone free to define it however they want? 2) Does the definition match the real world demand for that skill, e.g., the way employers define it? 3) Is the definition detailed and specific enough so that teachers and students and other stakeholders really understand what is expected of them? 4) Are these skills incorporated into the curriculum, or have you just asked teachers to “address them” somehow?
  • 59. A few policy implications • Curriculum – Integrate into curriculum instead of purchasing stand-alone “thinking skills” programs: They don’t work. – Where is the time for deeper understanding, real world application, problem solving? – Focus: U.S. tends to have a curriculum that is “a mile wide and an inch deep”—shallow and repetitive • EG, U.S. math textbooks cover almost twice as many topics per grade as Singapore’s. In Singapore, students expected to complete about one thorough lesson on a single topic per week; in U.S., about one lesson on a narrowly focused topic each day – More time to explore subjects through open ended problems, collaborative projects, creativity
  • 60. A Few Policy Implications • Assessment – Teaching to the state test is too narrow: • EG, Recent study found that math tests in 10 states had too few complex problem solving questions to even measure whether there is a gender gap in such skills let alone whether students are being adequately prepared for real world work. – Supplement with more challenging local assessments (other countries do that). – Find early ways to gauge college preparedness, EG ACT’s EPAS system. – For problem solving and applied literacy, key is to challenge students with less structured, more open ended problems in each subject. OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) framework and items can be helpful.
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