Presentation given by Rommel N. Carvalho at the ISDA conference in 2007. The paper related to this presentation was later invited to be extended to a book chapter. Book chapter: http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-540-88045-5_2 Abstract As the work with semantics and services grows more ambitious in the Semantic Web community, there is an increasing appreciation on the need for principled approaches for representing and reasoning under uncertainty. Reacting to this trend, the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) has recently created the Uncertainty Reasoning for the World Wide Web Incubator Group (URW3-XG) to better define the challenge of reasoning with and representing uncertain information available through the World Wide Web and related WWW technologies. In according to the URW3-XG effort this Chapter presents the implementation of a graphical user interface (GUI) for building probabilistic ontologies, an application programming interface (API) for saving and loading these ontologies and a grammar proposal to specify formulas for creating conditional probabilistic tables dynamically. The language used for building probabilistic ontologies is Probabilistic OWL (PR-OWL), an extension for OWL based on Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN). The GUI, API, and the compiler for the proposed grammar were implemented into UnBBayes-MEBN, an open source, Java-based application that provides an easy way for building probabilistic ontologies and reasoning based on the PR-OWL/MEBN framework.

1. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho –University of Brasília
A G U I T o o l fo r P la u s ib le R e a s o n in gA G U I T o o l fo r P la u s ib le R e a s o n in g
in th e S e m a n tic W e b u s in g M E B Nin th e S e m a n tic W e b u s in g M E B N
S ession B-III: Intelligent Data Mining
Rommel Novaes Carvalho
rommel.carvalho@ gmail.com
A d v is o r: P ro f. D r. M a rc e lo L a d e ira
C o -A d v is o r: D r. P a u lo C e s a r G . d a C o s ta
Intelligent S ystems Design and Applications (IS DA), UERJ – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 23/10/2007

2. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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Te a m
M s S tu d e n t
R o m m e l N o v a e s C a rv a lh o /U n B - B ra z il
A d v is o r
P ro f. D r. M a rc e lo L a d e ira /U n B - B ra z il
C o -A d v is o r
D r. P a u lo C é s a r G . d a C o s ta /G M U - U S A
C o m p u te r S c ie n c e S tu d e n ts
L a é c io L . d o s S a n to s /U n B - B ra z il
S h o u M a ts u m o to /U n B - B ra z il

3. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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A g e n d a
In tro d u c tio n
U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
U n d e rs ta n d in g M E B N
B N + F O L = M E B N
M T h e o ry a n d M F ra g
M E B N + O W L = P R -O W L
B u ild in g m y firs t M T h e o ry
S S B N in U n B B a y e s
K B - E n titie s
K B - F in d in g s
Q u e ry
B o o to m -u p a lg o rith m
C o n c lu s io n s

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In tro d u c tio n
R e p re s e n tin g a n d c o m m u n ic a tin gR e p re s e n tin g a n d c o m m u n ic a tin g
N e e d o f re p re s e n tin g a n d c o m m u n ic a tin g
In fo rm a tio n te c h n o lo g y re v o lu tio n ->
k n o w le d g e re v o lu tio n
D a ta d riv e n a c tiv itie s -> k n o w le d g e d riv e n
a c tiv itie s
T h e S e m a n tic W e b (S W )w ill a c h ie v e its fu ll
p o te n tia l w h e n it b e c o m e s a p la c e w h e re d a ta
c a n b e s h a re d a n d p ro c e s s e d b y a u to m a tic to o ls
th e s a m e w a y it is c u rre n tly d o n e b y h u m a n
b e in g s [2].
O n to lo g ie s c o n ta in a c o m m o n s e t o f te rm s fo r
d e s c rib in g a n d re p re s e n tin g a d o m a in a llo w in g
th e S W a c h ie v e its fu ll p o te n tia l.
“W h ite ” - s y n ta c tic <> S W <> u n c e rta in ty S W
U R W 3-X G

5. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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In tro d u c tio n
U n c e rta in ty in S e m a n tic W e bU n c e rta in ty in S e m a n tic W e b
O n e o f th e m o s t p ro m is in g a p p ro a c h e s to d e a l
w ith u n c e rta in ty in th e S W is B a y e s ia n n e tw o rk s
(B N )[6]
H o w e v e r, B N s h a v e s o m e lim ita tio n s o n
re p re s e n ta tio n a l p o w e r th a t re s tric ts th e ir u s e fo r
th e S W
N u m b e r o f v a ria b le s is fix e d
N o re c u rs io n
U s e o f th e e x p re s s iv e n e s s o f firs t o rd e r lo g ic
(F O L )to o v e rc o m e th is s h o rtc o m in g s
T h is fra m e w o rk is b a s e d o n th e p ro b a b ilis tic
o n to lo g y la n g u a g e P R -O W L [7, 8], w h ic h u s e s
M u lti-E n tity B a y e s ia n N e tw o rk s (M E B N )[9, 1 0]
a s its u n d e rly in g lo g ic .

6. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
N u m b e r o f v a ria b le sN u m b e r o f v a ria b le s
P ro b le m : D is c rim in a te s ta rs h ip s a n d m a k eP ro b le m : D is c rim in a te s ta rs h ip s a n d m a k e
d e c is io n s b a s e d o n u n c e rta in a n d in c o m p le ted e c is io n s b a s e d o n u n c e rta in a n d in c o m p le te
in fo rm a tio n .in fo rm a tio n .

7. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
N u m b e r o f v a ria b le sN u m b e r o f v a ria b le s
P ro b le m : D is c rim in a te s ta rs h ip s a n d m a k eP ro b le m : D is c rim in a te s ta rs h ip s a n d m a k e
d e c is io n s b a s e d o n u n c e rta in a n d in c o m p le ted e c is io n s b a s e d o n u n c e rta in a n d in c o m p le te
in fo rm a tio n .in fo rm a tio n .
Bayesian ReasoningBayesian Reasoning::
Update old beliefs with newUpdate old beliefs with new
evidences. All new data areevidences. All new data are
considered.considered.

8. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
N u m b e r o f v a ria b le sN u m b e r o f v a ria b le s
P ro b le m : D is c rim in a te s ta rs h ip s a n d m a k eP ro b le m : D is c rim in a te s ta rs h ip s a n d m a k e
d e c is io n s b a s e d o n u n c e rta in a n d in c o m p le ted e c is io n s b a s e d o n u n c e rta in a n d in c o m p le te
in fo rm a tio n .in fo rm a tio n .

9. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
N u m b e r o f v a ria b le sN u m b e r o f v a ria b le s
W h a t h a p p e n s if m o re th a n o n e s ta rs h ip s h o wW h a t h a p p e n s if m o re th a n o n e s ta rs h ip s h o w
u p a t th e s a m e tim e ? B u ild a B N fo r e a c hu p a t th e s a m e tim e ? B u ild a B N fo r e a c h
p o s s ib le c o n te x t?p o s s ib le c o n te x t?

10. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
N u m b e r o f v a ria b le sN u m b e r o f v a ria b le s
W h a t h a p p e n s if m o re th a n o n e s ta rs h ip s h o wW h a t h a p p e n s if m o re th a n o n e s ta rs h ip s h o w
u p a t th e s a m e tim e ? B u ild a B N fo r e a c hu p a t th e s a m e tim e ? B u ild a B N fo r e a c h
p o s s ib le c o n te x t?p o s s ib le c o n te x t?

11. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
R e c u rs io nR e c u rs io n
L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .
H o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n eH o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n e
n a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a kn a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a k
m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?

12. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
R e c u rs io nR e c u rs io n
L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .
H o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n eH o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n e
n a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a kn a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a k
m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?

13. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
R e c u rs io nR e c u rs io n
L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .
H o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n eH o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n e
n a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a kn a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a k
m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?

14. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
R e c u rs io nR e c u rs io n
L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .
H o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n eH o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n e
n a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a kn a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a k
m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?

15. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
R e c u rs io nR e c u rs io n
L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .
H o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n eH o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n e
n a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a kn a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a k
m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?

16. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g B N lim ita tio n s
R e c u rs io nR e c u rs io n
L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .L e ts s u p p o s e th a t th e re is ju s t o n e s ta rs h ip .
H o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n eH o w to re a liz e if th e D M R is d u e to th e z o n e
n a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a kn a tu re (a le a to ry )o r to th e s ta rs h ip 's c lo a k
m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?m o d e (c o n s ta n t)?

17. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g M E B N
B N + F O L = M E B NB N + F O L = M E B N
M E B N is a fo rm a lis m th a t b rin g s to g e th e r th e
e x p re s s iv e n e s s o f firs t o rd e r lo g ic (F O L )w ith
B N ’s a b ility to p e rfo rm p la u s ib le re a s o n in g .

18. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g M E B N
M T h e o ry a n d M F ra gM T h e o ry a n d M F ra g
Context
Nodes
Input
Nodes
Resident
Nodes
A n M T h e o ry is a s e t o f M F ra g s th a t s a tis fy c e rta in F O L
c o n s is te n c e c o n d itio n s th a t g u a ra n ty th e e x is te n c e o f a
u n iq u e J P D (J o in t P ro b a b ility D is trib u tio n )u n d e r its R V s
(R a n d o m Va ria b le s ). M F ra g c o n s is ts o f b o th a s e t o f C P Ts
a n d F O L lo g ic a l c o n s tra in ts th a t fix e d th e ir v a lid a tin g
c o n d itio n s .

19. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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U n d e rs ta n d in g M E B N
M E B N + O W L = P R -O W LM E B N + O W L = P R -O W L
P R -O W L w a s p ro p o s e d a s a n e x te n s io n to th e
O W L la n g u a g e b a s e d o n M E B N , w h ic h c a n
e x p re s s a p ro b a b ilis tic d is trib u tio n u n d e r a n y
a x io m a tic F O L th e o ry m o d e l.

20. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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B u ild in g m y firs t M T h e o ry
R e s id e n t n o d e sR e s id e n t n o d e s

21. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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B u ild in g m y firs t M T h e o ry
In p u t n o d e s a n d re c u rs io nIn p u t n o d e s a n d re c u rs io n

22. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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B u ild in g m y firs t M T h e o ry
C o n te x t n o d e sC o n te x t n o d e s

23. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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B u ild in g m y firs t M T h e o ry
D in a m ic ta b le a n d n u m b e r o f v a ria b le sD in a m ic ta b le a n d n u m b e r o f v a ria b le s

24. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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B u ild in g m y firs t M T h e o ry
S a v in g th e u b f a n d p r-o w l fileS a v in g th e u b f a n d p r-o w l file
UBF
PR-OWL
UnBBayes
Save

25. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
K B - E n titie sK B - E n titie s

26. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
K B - F in d in g sK B - F in d in g s

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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
Q u e ryQ u e ry
HarmPotential(!ST4, !T0) = ?HarmPotential(!ST4, !T0) = ?

28. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
B o tto m -u p a lg o rith mB o tto m -u p a lg o rith m

29. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
B o tto m -u p a lg o rith mB o tto m -u p a lg o rith m

30. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
B o tto m -u p a lg o rith mB o tto m -u p a lg o rith m

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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
B o tto m -u p a lg o rith mB o tto m -u p a lg o rith m

32. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
B o tto m -u p a lg o rith mB o tto m -u p a lg o rith m

33. ©2007 Rommel Novaes Carvalho – University of Brasília
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S S B N in U n B B a y e s
B o tto m -u p a lg o rith mB o tto m -u p a lg o rith m

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C o n c lu s io n s
A G U I w a s d e v e lo p e d to fa c ilita te th e c re a tio n o f
p ro b a b ilis tic o n to lo g ie s b u ilt o n b o th M F ra g s a n d
M th e o rie s .
A M E B N C P T fo rm u la e d ito r w a s d e v e lo p e d to d e a l
w ith p re v io u s ly u n k n o w n n u m b e r o f n o d e s .
F a c ilitie s w e re p ro v id e d to c re a te , lo a d , a n d s a v e
M E B N m o d e ls in th e P R -O W L file fo rm a t.
P o s s ib ly, th e firs t M E B N fra m e w o rk
im p le m e n ta tio n in th e w o rld .
It m a k e s e a s ie r th e ta s k o f m o d e llin g re a l d o m a in
b a s e d o n M E B N a n d P R -O W L .
G o o d fo r re s e a rc h a s U n B B a y e s is a n o p e n
s o u rc e s o ftw a re .
T h is re s e a rc h re p re s e n ts a c o n trib u tio n to th e S W

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Q & A – th a n k y o u !

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U n B B a y e s C u rre n t
S ta te
A lp h a v e rs io n s c h e d u le d to J a n u a ry 2008,
in c lu d in g :
S S B N a lg o rith m
a c o m p le te to y c a s e s tu d y
S ta rtre k
A re a l c a s e s tu d y s c h e d u le d to J u ly 2008
C o m p le te u s e r g u id e in J u ly 2008
C o n ta c t:
ro m m e l.c a rv a lh o @ g m a il.c o m
p c o s ta @ g m u .e d u