2. DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of revise any forward-looking statements, whether as
the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E a result of new information or future events or for
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that any other reason. Figures for 2011 on are
are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of estimates or targets.
future results. Such forward-looking statements merely
reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of
future economic circumstances, industry conditions, All forward-looking statements are expressly
company performance and financial results. Such terms qualified in their entirety by this cautionary
as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", statement, and you should not place reliance on
"plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or any forward-looking statement contained in this
analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward- presentation.
looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these
statements are only projections and may differ materially
from actual future results or events. Readers are referred NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC,
specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could We present certain data in this presentation, such
cause actual results to differ from those contained in the as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted
forward-looking statements, including, among other to present in documents filed with the United
things, risks relating to general economic and business States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
conditions, including crude oil and other commodity under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because
prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or
uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation
gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas S-X.
reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic
and social developments, receipt of governmental
approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
2
3. BUSINESS MODEL
Operating as an integrated balanced oil company, dominant in Brazil
Exploration and Production
• Intense focus on production in deep and ultra-deep waters;
• Licensed blocks guarantee access to reserves and economies of scale;
• New exploratory frontier, adjacent to existing operations.
Downstream
• Dominant position in a growing market, far from other refining
centers;
•Balance and integration between production, refining and demand.
Gas and Power
• Developed infrastructure for process ing and transporting gas;
• Complete flexibility to supply and consume domestic or imported
gas.
Bio-Fuels
• Integrated and competive with hydrocarbon products;
• Large areas of available unused agricultural land;
• Large consumer market, with fleet and distribution in place.
3
4. BRAZIL LEADERSHIP IN RECENT DISCOVERIES
Deep-water discoveries in Brazil represent 1/3 of the worldwide discoveries in the last 5 years
New Discoveries 2005-2010
(33,989 million bbl) Deep-Water
Discoveries
Brazil
Brasil
38%
62%
Other
Outros
Other Discoveries Deep-Waters
• In the last 5 years, more than 50% of the new discoveries (worldwide) were made in deep waters
• The development of these reserves will demand additional capacity from the supply chain
• Expansion of the oil and gas chain in Brazil is in line with this perspective
Petrobras expects to double its proved reserves until 2020, keeping the discovery cost around US$2/boe
Source: PFC Energy
4
5. 2011-2015 INVESTMENTS
Investment level similar to the previous Plan, with more focus in E&P
2010-14 Business Plan 2011-15 Business Plan
US$224 billion
1% 2% 1% US$224.7 billion
2% 2% 1%
7% 1%
2% 2,9 2% 1%
2% 1% 2,4
8% 2.9 6% 2,32.4
4,24,2
3.5 14,73,2 4.1
14,7 3,2
17.8 2.4 13.2 3.1
5.1 4,14,1
3.8
118.8 (*)
53% 65,5
65,5
73.6 70.6 127.5
31%
33%
56% 31% 57%
E&P RTC
(*) US$22.8 billion in Exploration
E&P RTM
RTC Gás,Energia & Gás Química Petroquímica
E&P
Petrochemicals
• 5% of investments will be made overseas, 87%
Gás,Energia & Gas Chemicals
Gas, Energy & Gás Química Petroquímica Distribuição Biocombustíveis
of which in E&P.
Distribuição
Distribution Biocombustíveis
Biofuels Corporativo
Corporativo
Corporate
• Obs: HSEE (US$ 4.2 bi), IT (US$ 2.7 bi), Technology
(US$ 4.6 bi), Logistics (US$ 17.4 bi) and Maintenance &
Infrastructure (US$ 20.6 bi)
5
6. CASH GENERATION AND INVESTMENTS
Divestment and traditional funding sources adequate for Plan needs
Scenario A Scenario B
US$ 256.1 US$ 256.1 US$ 255.6 US$ 255.6 Key assumptions
13,6 13,6
31,4 30,9 Scenario A
26,1 26,1
Scenario B
Exchange rate
1.73 1,73
67,0
(R$/US$)
91,4
2011 – 110 2011 – 110
2012 – 80 2012 – 95
224,7 224,7 Brent (US$/bbl) 2013 – 80 2013 – 95
2014 – 80 2014 – 95
148,9
125,0 2015 – 80 2015 – 95
Leverage (Average) 29% 26%
Net Debt/EBITDA
1.9 1.5
Sources Use Sources Use (Average)
ARP (R$/bbl) 158 177
Divestment and Restructuring Debt Amortization
Cash Investments
Third-Party Resources (Debt) • 40% of capex in dollar in comparison to 37% in the
Operating Cash Flow (After Dividends)
previous Plan
6
8. PRODUCTION
With broad access to new reserves, Petrobras can more than double production this decade
6,418
142
246
1.120
3,993
125
180 + 35 Systems
2,575 2,772 618
2,386 2,516 +10 Post-Salt Projects
93 96
96 141 +8 Pre-Salt Projects 4,910
99 144
’000 boe/day
111 132 435
317 334 +1 Transfer of Rights
321
3,070 845
Transfer of Rights
Added Capacity
1.971 2.004 2.100 13
1.855 Oil: 2,300,000 bpd Pre-Salt 1,148
543
2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production- Brazil Natural Gas Production - Brazil Oil Production - International Natural Gas Production - International
• Pre-salt and Transfer of Rights will represent 69% of the additional capacity in2020;
• Pre-Salt share of total production will eincrease from the current 2% , to 18% in 2015 and 40.5% in 2020.
Note: Does not include Non-Consolidated International Production.
8
9. E&P INVESTMENTS IN BRAZIL– 2011-15 BUSINESS PLAN
Pre-salt now more than half of development spending next five years
Pre-Salt Post-Salt
US$ 53.4 Billion US$ 64.3 Billion
Tranfer of
13% 12% Rights
2% 21% 22%
21%
54%
57%
Exploration Development Infrastrutucre and support
• Annual investments of more than US$ 4 billion in exploration
• 23% of the pre-salt investments are in the transfer of rights areas
9
13. PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
7 new systems until 2015, having already hired six
2010
Lula Pilot
FPSO Cidade Angra dos Reis – 100.000 bpd
The 1st production well in Lula Pilot reached
36,000 boed (28,000 bpd of oil), being the
most prolific well from Petrobras
2013
Lula Northeast
FPSO Cidade Paraty – 120.000 bpd
Piloto de Guará
FPSO Cidade de São Paulo – 120.000 bpd
2014
Guará North
FPSO – 150.000 bpd
Cernambi
FPSO – 150.000 bpd
2015
Lula Central Franco – Transfer of
FPSO – 150.000 bpd Rights
Lula High FPSO – 150.000 bpd
FPSO – 150.000 bpd
13
14. VARREDURA PROJECT
Technological development and exploratory optimization
Varredura Project
Discoveries indo Pr é-sal
Descobertas Pre-salt
Campos Basin 2009/10
na Bacia de Campos
2009/10 (VARREDURA)
(Varredura) • Additional recoverable volume from discoveries:
• Post-salt: Marimbá, Marlim Sul and Pampo:
1,105 MM boe
• Pre-salt: Barracuda, Caratinga, Marlim, Marlim
Leste, Albacora and Albacora Leste: 1,130 MM
boe*
• Well productivity exceeds 20,000 bpd
Between 2011 and 2015 67 exploratory wells will be drilled in current production
areas in Campos basin
*No volumes have been announced regarding the Marlim Leste and Albacora Leste discoveries. 14
16. NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Oil/water subsea separation resolves limitations from growing water production
• Benefit: Separates water and oil under the sea, re-injecting water and relieving the
size of the surface equipment on the platform.
• Field : Marlim
• Operation: 2011
16
17. NEW TECHNOLOGIES
Raw water injection promises to increase production from existing systmems
• Benefit: 3 subsea systems for pumping raw water (with little treatment) to
pressurize the Albacora reservoir, increasing reservoir recovery factor without
increasing surface systems. Pioneer in the world in water depth.
• Field: Albacora
• Operation: 2011
17
18. LOCAL CONTENT
Growth of industry and concession terms make increasing Local Content a
necessity, but not without its challenges
Petrobras Long Term Outlook Impacts on National Industry
Main Challendes
Increasing volume of
Petrobras investments Productive Capacity
Tecnological Inovation
Transfer of Rights-
Increasing demand
Petrobras sole
for products and
operator in the
services of O&G HR qualification
Pre-salt
Business Management
Increasing local
content obligations
Financing and tax
incentives
18
19. NEW VESSELS AND EQUIPMENTS
Resources required for production growth
Delivery Plan (to be contracted)
Current Situation Accumulated Value
Critical Resources (Dec/10)
By 2013 By 2015 By 2020
Drilling Rigs Water Depth Above 2.000 m 15 39 37 (1) 65 (2)
Supply and Special Vessel 287 423 479 568
Production Platforms SS e FPSO 44 54 61 94
Others (Jacket and TLWP) 78 80 81 83
Production
Supply Vessel Drilling Rigs
Platform (FPSO)
Drilling Rigs Under Contract
Water Depth 2006 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013
Up to 1,000 meters 6 11 11
1,000 to 2,000 meters 19 19 21 +2 +1 +1
Over 2,000 meters 2 3 15 +10 +13 +1
(1) Two rigs reallocated from international operations, expire in 2015, so it is not considered in the 2020 accumulated value
(2) Figure includes 28 rigs built in Brazil, added to existing contracte fleet. The demand for long-term will be adjusted as new demand assessments are made.
19
20. LOCAL CONTENT
Requirements in concession agreements become great over time
Minimum and maximum limits by block:
Round 0 No local content required Rounds 7, In deep water, between 37% and 55% in the
9 and 10 exploration phase, and between 55% and 65% in
the production development phase.
Maximum limit
Rounds 1 Minimum exploration limit: 37%
50% in the exploratory phase Transfer of Minimum production development limit:
to 4 70% in the production development phase Rights • Up to 2016: 55%
Concession • 2017-2018: 58%
Minimum limit by block • After 2019: 65%
Rounds 5
Between 30% and 70% in the exploration and
and 6 production development phases
2011-2015 Projects
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Marlim Sul Guará Piloto 2 Lula NE Guará (Norte) Lula 3 Central
SS P-56 FPSO Cid. São Paulo FPSO Cid. de Paraty FPSO FPSO
Baleia Azul Parque das Baleias Cernambi Lula 4 Alto
FPSO FPSO P-58 FPSO FPSO
Papa-Terra BALEIA AZUL ESP/MARIMBÁ
Roncador
P-61 &FPSO P-63 FPSO FPSO
SS P-55
Roncador SIRI Maromba
Tiro/Sidon 2 jacket and FPSO
FPSO P-62 FPSO
FPSO
Aruana Franco 1
FPSO P-62 FPSO
Lower local content requirements in the ANP’s initial concession rounds give local industry time to adapt.
Concession and Transfer of Rights agreements permit waivers if they are not competitive with international
metrices (price, quality, timeliness and technology.
20
21. PLATFORM CONSTUCTION
Joint ventures with foreign shipbuilders creating shipyard capacity
Under Construction:
P-55: Estaleiro Atlântico Sul – PE (hull) /QUIP- RS (modules)
Recently built platform:
P-57: BrasFels – RJ
Capacity: 180 thous. boe/day
Value: US$ 1.2 billion
Delivered two months ahead of schedule
Under Construction:
P-56 and P-61: Brasfels (RJ)
P-62: Jurong (ES)
FPSO Cidade de Paraty: Brasfels (RJ)
FPSO Cidade de São Paulo: Brasfels (RJ)
Under Construction:
P-63: QUIP (RS)
8 FPSOs (Pre-salt - P-66; P-67; P-68; P-69; P-70; P-71; P-72; P-73 ): Ecovix – Rio Grande (RS)
P-58: Estaleiro Rio Grande –RS , UTC Engenharia S/A – RJ e EBE – RJ.
o 2 Jack-ups under construction (P-59 and P-60) in São Roque (BA)
o Inclusion of 900 new suppliers per year in Petrobras' Corporate Vendor List;
o 13 new shipyards currently under construction, raising the total number to 50*;
*Source: Sinaval – Executive Summary -2011, Jan. 21
21
26. PRODUCTION, DOWNSTREAM AND DEMAND IN BRAZIL
Construction of new refineries to meet local market demand
Thous bpd PREMIUM I
(2nd phase) 4,910
5000 300,000 bpd
(2019)
4000 COMPERJ
(2nd phase)
165,000 bpd 3,327
3,070 3,217
(2018)
3000
2,643 3,095
COMPERJ PREMIUM II
2,004 2,147 (1st phase) 2,205 2,536
300,000 bpd
2000 1,814 1,798 165,000 bpd (2017)
1,641 (2013)
1,393
1,323
1,036
1000 Abreu e Lima PREMIUM I
Refinery (RNE) (1st phase)
230,000 bpd 300,000 bpd
181 (2012) (2016)
0
1980 ... 2000 ... 2010 ... 2015 ... 2020
Oil and NGL Production - Brazil Total crude oil processed – Brazil Oil Products Market (2 scenarios)
• No new refineries built since 1980
•Demand now exceeds refining capacity, with demand growing 20% last two years and growing
26
27. DOWNSTREAM EXPANSION
New refineries needed to avoid excessive dependence on product imports
Net Product Imports (’000 bpd) Net Imports as a percentage of total demand (%)*
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
USA
Brazil (2010)
France
Germany
China
Japan
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Brazil (2020)**
• Increasing imports will lead to higher logistical costs and increasing exposure to
availability of international supplies
* Source: IEA – 2010 World Energy Statistica
** Without considering Capacity Expansion
27
28. INVESTMENTS IN QUALITY
Investment cycle in modernization and quality has peaked
US$16 billion in 2011-15 Reduction in sulfur level
7.0
US$ 16 billion
5.9
4.9 Avg. Sulfur Level – Diesel (ppm)
4.5
3.2
2.3
1.1 1.0 1.0 <250
0.1 0.2
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
• After 2013 investment can be focused principally on expansion alone
28
29. MARKET IN BRAZIL
Free market follows international prices in the long term
2002-2011
160 ARP USA
US$/bbl
140
ARP Brazil
120
100
80
60
40
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
• No change in policy: Petrobras remains fully committed to international prices
29
30. CONCLUSION
A Portfolio of opportunities and challenges
OPPORTUNITIES
• Abundant oil reserves
• A Growing domestic market
• Maximizing scale, standardization, and integration
• Developing new technologies
• Monetizing natural gas
CHALLENGES
• Critical Resources (goods and services, human resources)
• Infrastructure and logistics
• Developing industry to meet local content requirements
• Cost pressures
30