Semelhante a 04.05.2009 presentation of petrobras america president, jose orlando azevedo - otc - offshore technology conference in houston - usa. (20)
2. Disclosure & Important Notice
The presentation may contain forecasts about future events. Such
forecasts merely reflect the expectations of the Company's management.
Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan",
"project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions,
are used to identify such forecasts. These predictions evidently involve
risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company.
Therefore, the future results of operations may differ from current
expectations, and readers must not base their expectations exclusively on
the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to
update the presentation/such forecasts in light of new information or
future developments.
2
3. Medium/Long-term Oil Market Outlook
Remains Very Strong
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND SCENARIOS
mm b/d
140
120 EIA/DOE High Demand Scenario
IEA Reference Scenario
100
Global demand scenarios
80 EIA/DOE Low Demand Scenario
60
Observed decline
Additional Required
40 Capacity (b/d)
Actual decline
Existing production Natural decline
20 Natural decline 2020 | 55 – 65 mm
Existing production
Existing production 2030 | 75 – 90 mm
0
2012
2028
2006
2008
2010
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2000
2002
2004
2030
Production in most non-OPEC countries is at a plateau or in decline;
Global oil production capacity will be challenged to meet projected demand growth;
Lower demand and capital spending during current down-cycle will postpone the
crunch, but not eliminate it.
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2007, EIA International Energy Outlook 2007 3
4. Dominant Position in a Large and
Growing Emerging Market
2007 Total Oil Consumption by Country (mmboed)
20.7
8 7.9
6
5.1 Brazil is world’s ninth
largest oil consumer
4
2.7 2.7
2.4 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6
2
0 Total Oil Consumption (index)
US
France
S. Korea
UK
Germany
Mexico
China
Japan
Iran
India
Canada
Brazil
Saudi
Italy
Russia
Brazil OECD World
150
140
Brazil oil consumption 130
growing at 2.4% p.a. 120
OECD oil consumption 110
growing at 1% p.a. 100
1991
1990
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: BP Statistical Review 2008, PFC Energy
4
5. High-potential Portfolio in One of the World’s
Most Exciting Provinces
Kashagan
Sakhalin II
Sakhalin I
Kurmangaz
Thunder Shah i
Azadegan
Horse Deniz
Khurais Anaran
Roncador
Marlim
Albacora Agbami
Akpo
Iara
Jupiter Dalia Kizomba
Tupi
Carioca Girassol, Jaz, Rosa
82% of our total crude
production currently
comes from Campos
Development of the Santos
Basin
Basin sub-salt play will drive
our long-term production
growth
Significant light oil and
Circle size
gas discoveries have been
indicates
made in the Espirito Santo
estimated reserves
Basin
5
6. Competitive Advantage in the Deepwater
Petrobras operates 22% of global
deepwater production
2008 Gross Global Operated Deepwater
Production (mboe/d)
REL HES
MUR
1% 1%
2%
BG
APC 4% PBR
5% 22%
CVX
6%
TOT
8%
XOM
14%
BP
9%
STL RDS
14% 14%
Source: PFC Energy | Note: Estimated volumes above reflect what operators are responsible for producing, not
what they keep on a net working interest or e ntitlement basis. Minimum water depth is 300 meters; twelve
operators above account for 94% of global deepwater production in 2008.
6
9. US Gulf of Mexico – Cascade and Chinook Project
Disconnectable
Buoy
Deepest installation of an FPU in the world (8,250 ft)
First FPSO in the US
Highest Reservoir Pressure (20kpsi) ever produced
9
10. Pursuing New Projects While Maximizing
Production from Existing Assets
Petrobras Total Production (M boed)
5,729
223
409
7.5% p.y.
1,177
3,655
5.6% p.y.
131
2,757 210
2,400 8.8% p.y. 634
2,223 2,305 2,308 103
2,042 2,027 100 142
1,812 96 101 109
463
1,637 85 94 142 126 124
23 163 273 321 3,920
24 35 161 168 274 277
44 251
252 265
232
2,680
1,778 1,792 1,855 2, 050
1,500 1,540 1, 493 1,684
1, 335
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2013 2020
O il production ‐ Brazil Ga s production ‐ Bra zil Oil P roduc t ‐ International Ga s P roduct ‐ Inte rna tiona l
10
11. Pre Salt Province
Total area of the Province: 112,000 km2 Area not under concession: 71,000 km2 (62%)
Area under concession: 41,000 km2 (38%) Area with Petrobras interest: 35,000 km2 (31%)
Whale’s Park
in
as
B
s
po
am
C
Test ed Wells
HC Fields
Exploratory Blocks
Pre-Salt Reservoirs
Santos
n
as i
to sB
S an
11
12. Santos Basin Pre-salt
Blocks Consortium
Wells Drilled
BMS-8 BR (66%), SH (20%) e PTG (14%)
BMS-9 BR (45%), BG (30%) e RPS (25%)
BMS-10 BR (65%), BG (25%) e PAX (10%)
BMS-11 BR (65%), BG (25%) e PTG (10%)
BMS-21 BR (80%), PTG (20%)
BM-S-42
BMS-22 EXX (40%), HES (40%) e BR (20%)
BMS-24 BR (80%), PTG (20%)
BMS-50 BR (60%), BG (20%) e RPS (20%)
Evaluation Plans approved by ANP
BM-S-42
Parati – 1-RJS-617
Tupi – 1-RJS-628
Iar a
Carioca – 1-SPS-50 BM-S-10
Par ati
Caramba – 1-SPS-51 BM-S-11
Guará – 1-SPS-55 Tupi
Bem-Te-Vi – 1-SPS-52 BM-S-24
Jupiter
Iara – 1-RJS-656
BM-S-8 BM-S-9
Bem-te-Vi Car ioca
Pre-salt Cluster:
Evaluation Plans being prepared
BM-S-21 15.000 km2
Car amba
Tupi: 5 to 8 bi boe
Júpiter – 1-RJS-652 BM-S-17
Iara: 3 to 4 bi boe
12
13. Espírito Santo Pre-salt
Infrastructure in-place
to
an
UTG Cacimbas
Linhares
P-34 at Jubarte field, first pre-salt
oS
Rio Doc e Cangoá Peroá production: excellent results, prod. up to
MG UPGN Lagoa Parda 18 k b/d
rit
pí
24” – 66 km
Aracruz 25 MM m 3/d
FPSO Seillean started in dec/08 as pilot
Es
Terminal Barra do Riacho
Camarupim
Canapu
system of Cachalote (CHT) field
Golfinho
VITÓRI A FPSO Capixaba will move from Golfinho
Vila Velha Carapó
field to Cachalote/Baleia Franca (BFR) in
UTG Sul Capixaba
Sul-Norte Capixaba
Gas pipeline
1H10
Guarapari Sul Capixaba
Gas pipeline 12 a 24” – 160 km
12” – 83 km 7 a 15 MM m 3/d
Anc hieta 4,5 MM m 3/d FPSO Pipa II will start in 2H10 as Baleia
Presidente
Kennedy Marataizes Azul (BAZ) pilot system
ARG
CHT Baleia Franca
JUB
N AU
OST
Baleia Azul first definitive production unit
RJ Baleia Azul AB A
CXR
PRB by 4Q12
Catuá
Natural gas production transported via
pipeline
13
15. Record of Accelerating Development
Production (b/d)
54 years
16 years
22 years
27 years
45 years
12 years
Number of years
Production since founding of Petrobras
Discovery of Garoupa in the Discovery of giant fields in Campos Basin Discovery of the Pre-salt,
(1954) Campos Basin (1974) inc. Albacora/Marlim including Parati (2006)
15
16. Petrobras’ Strong Portfolio Beyond Pre-salt
Main discoveries in the Post-salt region*
Date Block/Field Well Consortium
Nov-2008 BM-J-3 1-BRSA-669-BAS BR (60%), STATOIL (40%)
Jequitinhonha
Sep-2008 BM-S-40/Sidon 1-BRSA-658-SPS BR (100%)
Jul-2008 Golfinho 4-GLF-23-ESS BR (100%)
May-2008 BM-S-40/Tiro 1-BRSA-607-SPS BR (100%)
Dec-2007 BM-ES-5/Camarupim 4-ESS-177/6SS168 BR (65%), EL PASO (35%)
May-2007 BM-ES-5/Camarupim 6-BRSA-486-ESS BR (65%), EL PASO (35%)
Mar-2007 BC-60/Caxaréu 4-BRSA-446-ESS BR (100%)
* 2007 to 2009
17. Main Challenges for the Oil Industry in Brazil
CHALLENGES
Infra‐structure Improvement
including Dry Docks
Critical Equipment Supply
Drilling Equipment
Brasfels Shipyard in Angra dos Reis. P‐51 and P‐56
Dynamic Positioning and Propulsion construction.
Systems
Processing and Supply of Steel
Qualified workforce for construction
and operation
Financiability
Costs Optimization
Rio Grande Shipyard under construction. Prepared for
platform construction.
17
18. Optimizing Costs
Planning
• More details less risk Planning
Optimizing Costs
• Design Simplicity
• Design Standardization (i.e. 8 identical
Contracting
Pre-salt FPSOs)
• Equipment specification based on
industry-standards Culture
Contract Strategy
• Large number of contracts (packages
or modules) to increase
competitiveness
Culture
• Reducing redundancies
18
19. Opportunities for New Players
New Vessels Delivery Plan
Critical Resources
2009 to 2013 2013 to 2015 2016 to 2020
Large Vessels (1) 44 5 0
Supply and Special Vessel 92 50 53
Production Platforms (2) 15 8 22
Others (Jack-ups and TLWP) 2 2 3
Total 153 65 78
Supply Vessel Large Vessel (VLCC) Production Platform (FPSO)
Drilling Rigs
40 drilling units until 2017 to produce in deep and ultradeep waters
- 12 first via international bidding, delivered up to 2012 – Meeting Petrobras’ short-term need, while the
dome stic industry develops to attend the re maining units
- 28 built in Brazil and operated by Brazilian companies, delivered between 2013 and 2017
(1)
(2)
Promef 1 and Promef 2
FPSO and SS
19
20. Opportunities for New Players
Items Un. TOTAL Items Un. TOTAL
Wet Christmas Tree un 500 Pumps un 8.000
Well Head un 500 Compressors un 700
Flexible Lines km 4.000 Winch un 450
Manifolds un 30 Crane un 200
Producing pipes t 42.000 Engines un 1.000
Umbilical km 2.200 Turbines un 350
Dry Christmas Tree un 1.700 Structure Steel (Hull) t 940.000
Onshore well head un 1.700
Items Un. TOTAL Items Un. TOTAL
Reactors un 280 Power Generators un 500
Oil and water splitter un 50 Filters un 300
Storage Tankers un 1.800 Flares un 30
Turrets un 550
20
21. Opportunities for New Players
Total Investments:INVESTMENTS IN LOGISTICS – PIPELINES AND TERMINALS
US$ 3.7 billion between 2009-2013;
Main Projects:
Storage extension in Santos and Paranaguá ports;
Increase in effluents treatment in São Sebastião (TEBAR), São Fransisco do Sul (TEFRAN),
Cabiúnas, Ilha Grande (TEBIG) and TEDUT Terminals;
Implantation of the Program “Adequação de Suprimento de Petróleo” (PASP) and the Plano Diretor
de Dutos, in São Paulo State, through interventions in the OSVAT and OSCAN Systems, and new pier
for the São Sebastião Terminal;
Improvements in the oil product outflow system in Santos and Paranaguá ports and Madre de Deus
Terminal(TEMADRE).
Petrobras’ Terminals
26 offshore terminals, operated by
means of monobuoys or spread
mooring
20 land terminals.
22. Vertically Integrated System to Capture
Synergies within the Value Chain
Upstream Operations Downstream Operations
Existing Pipelines
Refineries
Petrobras Waterway Terminal
Other Companies In Land Terminal
As Petrobras continues to grow its upstream Petrobras will increase capacity to meet
business, the need for a compatible refining the needs of a growing domestic market
infrastructure becomes more critical
22
23. Production Increase Followed by Increase in
Domestic Oil Products Market
RNE
230 M UPB Premium I Others
150 M (600 M bpd) e
bpd Premium II (300 M
REPLAN 2011 bpd bpd)
Revamp Dec/2012
33 M bpd 1st Phase: 2013 Fuel Oil
REPAR 2nd Phase: 2015
2010 Revamp 5.729
25 M bpd
Clara 2011 Diesel
Camarão
Refinery
2010
7,5% a.a. Jet Fuel
Mil b/d
3.920
3.655
Naphtha
2.680 2.876
400 Gasoline
2.400
2.301
2.257 150
274
1.906 1.945 112
182 202 1.855 LPG
119 107 1224
1.792
901
738 783
179 Oil Production in Brazil
84 118
89 255 246
250 218
326 332 367 419
208 214 230 257 Oil and Gas Production in
Brazil and Abroadodução
de óleo e gás Brasil e
2007 2008E 2013E 2020E Internacional
23
24. OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEW PLAYERS
Gas & Energy
1st investment cycle (until 2010) – Diversifying Supply and Integrating the network
+ 2,332 km of gas pipelines until 2010
+ 19 new power plants
+ 1,236 MW until 2010
2nd investment cycle (2011 on) – Supply Flexibility and Diversification
+ 307 km of gas pipelines
+ new compression stations;
+ 2 LNG terminals (Terminal Regás-Flex)
+ natural gas power plants
24
25. Growing Options in Biofuels and
Low-carbon Technologies
Petrobras’ Biodiesel Plants
STRATEGY: To establish a global presence in
Quixadá the biofuels segment, with a particular focus on
biodiesel and ethanol
CE
Participate in Brazilian ethanol chain
and develop global markets for
Brazilian ethanol
BA Participate sustainably in the biodiesel
business in Brazil and with selective
Candeias international investments
MG
Montes Claros Develop competitive technologies to
produce biofuels from residual biomass
25
26. Prominp - Human Resources Demand
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
120.000
100.000
80.000
60.000 174,000
40.000
43,000 Business Plan 2009 – 2013
20.000 69,000
Qualified
Personnel
Business Plan 2008- 2012
0
26
27. Prominp - Human Resources Demand
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
120.000
120.000
Business Plan 2008 – 2012
28 Drilling Rigs
100.000
100.000 146 Supply Boats
New Stationary Production Units
PROMEF II
80.000
80.000 Freight 19 vessels
Refinery Premium II
Refinery Premium I
60.000
60.000
40.000
243,000
43,000 Business Plan
20.000 2009-2013
Qualified
Personnel
0
Atualização 16mar2009
27
28. Funding for the Next Two Years
Resolved
Funding for 2009 completed, with remaining needs for 2010 to be met via
traditional sources and cost reductions
2009 2010
Needs Needs
• US$ 18.10 bn • US$ 18.9 bn
Sources Sources
• BNDES: US$ 12.5 bn • BNDES: US$ 10.0 bn
• Pre-funding 2008: US$ 2.5 bn • Remainder to be financed : US$ 8.9 bn
• Capital Market: US$ 6 bn • 15% reduction in capex would reduce
remaining financial needs to less than
US$ 4 bn
28
29. 2020 Vision: To be One of the World’s Five Largest
Publicly Traded Oil Producers
Production
30,000 Target: 2020
25,000
Reserves (mm boe)
Production XOM
20,000 Target: 2013
BP
Production
Target: 2009
15,000
PBR
10,000 CVX RDS
COP
TOT
5,000
2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500
Production (mboe/d)
2007 (SEC) reserves and production
29
30. Conclusions
There are huge opportunities for already installed and
newcomers in Brazilian market of suppliers, service and
engineering companies due to the scale provide by project
portfolio.
Petrobras has a robust project portfolio, which is atypical of
the current economical situation.
Petrobras accomplishments are supported by its technological
capabilities as well as its operational experiences focusing on
a safe hydrocarbon recovery
In order to carry out such portfolio, Petrobras is looking
forward to establishing stable long term business
relationships with all available companies that are willing to
invest in Brazil.
30