Bueno and Hoeschl´s report about brazilian elections in 2014. Work in progress discussed informaly during JURIX 2014, in Krakovia, Polish. About the possibility of applying Newcomb Benford's Law in election processes, especially in the last presidential election in Brazil.

1. 2014
Electronic
Election
in
Brazil
Bueno
&
Hoeschl´s
Report
Executive
Summary
Hugo
Cesar
Hoeschl,
Post
Doci
hugo.hoeschl@gmail.com
Tania
Cristina
D’Agostini
Bueno,
Drii
tania.bueno@gmail.com
Abstract:
This
text
contains
a
preliminary
vision
of
a
"work
in
progress"
about
the
possibility
of
applying
Newcomb
Benford's
Law
in
election
processes,
especially
in
the
last
presidential
election
in
Brazil,
as
well
as
the
analysis
about
the
existence
of
assumptions
justifying
such
application.
Introduction
An
intense
discussion
is
in
progress
about
the
efficiency
of
the
electronic
election
process
in
Brazil,
which
was
the
first
country
in
the
world
to
conduct
electronic
elections
widely
in
order
to
choose
representatives
and
parliamentarians.
Along
with
this
innovative
process
it
has
also
emerged
questioning
about
the
validity,
efficiency
and
compliance
of
the
electronic
electoral
process.
In
the
2014
elections
there
was
a
very
intense
increase
in
the
level
of
criticism
and
questions.
As
a
result
we
have
made
some
multidisciplinary
studies
about
the
Newcomb
Benford
Law
-­‐
NBLiii,
and
the
possibility
of
its
application
in
election
processes
considering
past
experience
in
creating
digital
electionsiv
and
decision-­‐making
toolsv
.
The
NBL
is
called
the
"First
Digit
Law"
and
shows
by
observation
that
there
is
a
natural
probability
of
frequency
numbers
in
historical
series,
particularly
in
the
first
digit.
According
to
its
central
consequence,
the
numbers
appear
with
the
following
proportionvi:
2.
Applicability
of
Newcomb
Benford's
Law
in
election
processes
The
application
of
Newcomb
Benford's
Law
in
numerical
auditing
process
is
a
pacified
subject
in
terms
of
technical
and
scientific
approach.
This
does
not
mean
that
it
is
infallible,
or
that
its
application
arises
immediately
the
conclusion
of
existence
of
fraudulent
numerical
contents.
The
fact
is
that
the
NBL
is
a
simple
and
very
powerful
instrument
of
integrity
verification
and
compliance
of
numerical
sets.
For
that
reason,
it
turns
out
to
be
an
effective
weapon
in
the
hands
of
minorities,
or
isolated
people,
against
hegemonic
groups
or
large
bureaucratic
structures.

2. See
for
example
the
NBL
frequential
profile
in
an
average
of
numbers
that
contains
constants
of
physics,
tables
of
expansion
of
gases
and
sports
statisticalvii:
During
electoral
processes,
there
are
two
significant
references
on
its
acceptability:
the
study
of
Mizrahiviii,
and
the
work
of
Oliveira
Júniorix.
There
are
many
others
studies
as
Prof.
Walter
Mebane´sx
(Michigan
University),
including
works
contesting
its
applicability.
But
the
two
first
make
specific
reference
to
the
Brazilian
case,
and
the
first
made
in
2010,
an
application
of
NBL
in
which
its
ideal
line
is
very
close
to
the
actual
data
collected
during
the
election:
3.
Justification
elements
of
NBL
applicability
in
2014
elections
Five
elements
point
to
a
possible
questionableness
of
the
Brazilian
electoral
process
in
2014:
1)
The
presence
of
Diebold
Company.
It
was
very
questioned
in
other
procedures,
and
it
was
heavily
fined
and
accused
of
corruption
in
the
US;
2)
The
presence
of
Smartmatic
company,
also
subject
of
many
questionings
in
international
technical
environments;
3)
The
oscillating
previous
election
polls
which
one
day
before
the
election,
pointed
any
result
as
possible,
and
the
consequent
tight
end
margin
of
votes
counted;
4)
Constant
and
reiterated
questioning
reported
in
social
networks
after
the
elections;
5)
The
dogmatic
attitude
of
some
sectors
of
the
official
calculation
system,
incisively
refracting
any
possibility
of
questioning.
These
five
elements
together
with
several
criticisms
about
the
electronic
electoral
process
made
in
previous
elections,
with
reports,
videos,
testimonials,
plus
with
data
on
technical
disputes
involving
manufacturers
and
former
manufacturers
of
software
and
urns,
as
well
as
the
incident
recorded
in
Ecuador,
we
reach
to
the
following
conclusion:
it
needs
to
be
deeply
studied.
The
last
element
of
applicability
is
in
the
temporalized
distribution
of
partial
results
(PR’s)
issued
during
the
election.
Almost
50%
of
PR’s
was
issued
for
a
total
of
approximately
5%
of
the
final
vote,
as
the
figure
below:
4.
NBL
preliminary
application
in
the
Brazilian
presidential
election
in
2014
Faced
with
such
elements,
it
has
settled
for
making
a
first
sampling
to
a
preliminary
analysis.
This
first
sample
(A1)
was
made
by

3. a
random
selection
of
cells
coming
from
the
PR’s.
The
graphics
performance
resulted
in
the
red
line
in
the
graph
below:
Very
far
from
the
"ideal
curve"
of
NBL
(blue
line).
Considering
that
a
random
sample
may
have
a
fragile
consistency,
it
was
decided
to
apply
the
NBL
in
100%
of
PR’s
(A2).
The
result
was
as
follows:
The
blue
line
is
the
NBL
ideal
line.
The
red
line
represents
the
data
of
PR’s
(partial
results).
This
process
works
like
a
staircase,
and
the
elements
suggest
going
to
a
new
step.
Attention
then
turned
to
the
analysis
of
results
by
states
(A3).
Several
graphs
show
conflicting
drawings
with
natural
proportionality
of
NBL
(here
presented
without
geographical
indication):

4.
Many
of
the
states
have
disproportional
impact
on
the
end-­‐digit
(“8”
and
“9”).
In
terms
of
financial
fraud
and
money
laundering
investigations,
this
characteristic
means
a
consistent
warning
risk
of
fraud.
On
the
other
hand
the
high
incidence
of
graphics
with
disproportional
sinuosity
exactly
in
the
final
part
of
the
counting
votes
(5%
final
of
PR’s),
reinforce
this
feature.
Conclusions
I)
There
is
no
plausible
reason
to
refute,
ab
initio,
the
application
of
the
NBL
in
the
Brazilian
electoral
process
of
2014.
The
Earth
is
not
the
center
of
the
universe,
as
Copernicus
taught,
and
the
Brazilian
electoral
system
is
not
infallible
or
unquestionable.
None
electoral
system
is
above
failures
or
questionings;
II)
There
are
historical
and
factual
elements
that
allow
the
reasoning
of
seeking

5. compliance
analysis,
and
the
NBL
is
a
feasible
instrument
for
the
task
because
its
application
is
possible
without
the
need
to
access
or
process
large
volumes
of
data.
III)
The
application
of
the
NBL
in
Brazilian
electoral
process
in
preliminary
analysis
shows
high
levels
of
inconsistency
(A1,
A2
and
A3).
The
differences
in
the
curves
exceed
the
frequential
limits
in
quantity
and
variety
suggesting
deeper
applications
and
audits
on
a
broader
scale.
On
the
technical
side
under
the
point
of
view
of
historical
series
analysis,
the
election
result
is
on
the
perspective
of
doubt.
Motivation
and
future
works
Upon
arriving
in
Krakow
to
attend
the
Jurix
2014
-­‐
27th
International
Conference
on
the
Legal
Knowledge
and
Information
Systems,
and
especially
after
the
most
intense
contact
with
the
legacy
of
Copernicus
(graduated
in
Krakow
and
whose
statue
stands
at
the
entrance
of
the
Jagiellonian
University),
and
after
the
visit
to
the
Auschwitz
camp,
we
decided
to
informally
present
the
preliminary
results
of
this
study
to
the
scientific
community
in
an
executive
summary
form,
as
a
previous
study
of
a
"work
in
progress"
as
a
"collocated
work"
of
our
work
regularly
evaluated
and
approved
for
presentation,
which
may
prove
to
be
the
subject
of
further
studies
in
the
future.
The
decision
was
due
to
the
symbolism
contained
in
the
paradox
of
these
two
main
streams:
a)
on
one
side,
Copernicus
and
his
followers
doing
observations
and
conclusions,
with
purely
technical
and
scientific
objectives,
based
on
rationality,
and
generated
questionings
to
the
established
staff;
b)
on
the
other
side,
the
symbolism
of
the
legacy
of
Auschwitz
that
draws
attention
to
the
constant
vigil
over
the
hegemonies
which
sometimes
end
up
losing
the
rationality
limits
in
historical
perspective.
As
future
works
would
be
interesting
to
develop
the
following
tasks:
a)
Applying
the
NBL
in
all
electoral
zones
and
other
greatness
of
universes
within
the
Brazilian
election;
b)
Analyse
the
feasibility
of
applying
the
NBL
in
the
second
digit
in
all
electoral
sections;
c)
Match
with
the
results
of
the
2002,
2006
and
2010
elections;
d)
Compare
the
results
from
other
countries;
e)
To
deepen
data
and
detail
worksheets.
References:
i
Former
President
of
the
Association
of
Data
Processing
Companies
-­‐
ABEP.
Former
President
of
the
Center
for
Informatics
and
Automation
of
Santa
Catarina.
Procurator
of
the
National
Treasury.
Former
Promoter
of
Justice.
Master
in
Philosophy
and
TGD.
Specialist
in
Legal
Informatics.
Doctor
in
Applied
Intelligence.
Post-­‐Doctorate
in
Electronic
Government.
Creator
of
a
national
methodology
to
combat
money
laundering
of
LAB-­‐LD/CNPq.
http://www.informatik.uni-­‐
trier.de/~ley/pers/hd/h/Hoeschl:Hugo_Cesar.html
ii
Master
and
Doctor
in
Applied
Intelligence.
Specialist
in
Legal
Informatics.
International
researcher
in
artificial
intelligence
and
law,
with
more
than
100
papers
published
in
the
area.
http://www.informatik.uni-­‐
trier.de/~ley/pers/hd/b/Bueno:T=acirc=nia_C=_D=Ag
ostini
iii
Researchers
that
also
participated
in
the
analysis
team:
Karina
Girardi
Roggia
(Dr),
Angela
Iara
Zotti
(Msc),
Cláudia
de
Oliveira
Bueno
(Esp)
Jerônimo
Velasquez
(Webmaster).
iv
Brasileiros
realizam
primeira
eleição
digital.
http://tecnologia.terra.com.br/brasileiros-­‐realizam-­‐1-­‐
eleicao-­‐por-­‐celulares-­‐com-­‐urna-­‐
digital,d359887dc5aea310VgnCLD200000bbcceb0aRC
RD.html
v
Sistema
permite
consultas
pelo
telefone
celular.
http://www.wirelessmundi.inf.br/noticias-­‐geral/456-­‐
aplicacao-­‐permite-­‐consultas-­‐publicas-­‐e-­‐votacoes-­‐pelo-­‐
celular
vien.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford's_law
vii
http://plus.maths.org/content/looking-­‐out-­‐number-­‐
one?src=aop
viii
As
ultimas
eleições
e
a
lei
de
Benford
(ou
Lei
do
Primeiro
Digito).
Salomon
Mizrahi
(Ufscar).
http://www.academia.edu/3596147/As_%C3%BAltim
as_elei%C3%A7%C3%B5es_e_a_lei_de_Benford_ou_Lei
_do_Primeiro_D%C3%ADgito_
ix
Evidências
empíricas
acerca
da
aplicação
da
Lei
de
Newcomb-­Benford
no
campo
da
auditoria
no
sistema
eleitoral
brasileiro.
Francisco
Alves
de
Oliveira
Jr.
http://franciscoalvesjunior.files.wordpress.com/2010/
08/monografia.pdf
x
http://www-­‐personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/