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Capital Budgeting

    Dr. Rakesh Sharma
    School of Behavioral Sciences & Business Studies
                 Thapar University,Patiala



1
Capital Budget
    Capital budget is the budget of capital expenditures.
      Capital Expenditures are those expenditures whose
    benefit spread in number of years e.g., purchase of
    Plant and Machinery , Land and building and starting
    a new factory plant etc.




2
CAPITAL BUDGETING
         Capital budgeting: is the planning process for
    allocating all expenditures that will have an expected
    benefit to the firm for more than one year.




3
Investment Appraisal
    Firms normally place projects in the following categories:
    • Replacement and maintenance of old or damaged
      equipment.
    • Investments to upgrade or replace existing equipment
    • Marketing investments to expand product lines or
      distribution facilities.
    •   Investments for complying with government or




4
OVERALL AIM
    To maximise shareholders wealth..
    Projects should give a return over and above the marginal
    weighted average cost of capital.


    Projects can be;
    Mutually exclusive
    Independent




5
IDEAL SELECTION
                  METHOD
    • Select the project that maximises shareholders wealth

    • Consider all cash flows

    •   Discount the cash flows at the appropriate market
        determined opportunity cost of capital




6
Need for Investment Appraisal
    • Large amount of resources are involved and wrong
      decisions could be costly
    • Difficult and expensive to reverse
    • Investment decisions can have a direct impact on the
      ability of the organisation to meet its objectives




7
Investment Appraisal Process
    Stages:
    • identify objectives. What is it? Within the corporate
      objectives?
    • Identify alternatives.
    • Collect and analyse data. Examine the technical and
      economic feasibility of the project, cash flows etc.




8
Investment Appraisal Process
    Stages:
    • decide which one to undertake
    • authorisation and implementation
    • review and monitor: learn from its experience and try
      to improve future decision - making




9
Capital Budgeting - Methods

     1. Accounting Rate of return

     2. Payback

     3. Net Present Value

     4. Internal Rate of Return




10
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)

     Accounting Rate of Return method relates average annual profit to either the amount
     initially invested or the average investment, as a percentage.
     Formulae:
     ARR = Average annual accounting profit x 100
                      Average investment
     Where:
     • Average annual profit = Total profit/Number of years
11
     • Average investment = (initial capital investment + scrap value) / 2
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)




       ARR = Avg. Net Income Per Year
                  Avg. Investment




12
Average Return on Investment

     Example:
     Year       Net Income       Cost
     1           6,000       100,000 Initial
     2           8,000       0 Salvage Value
     3          11,000
     4          13,000
     5          16,000
     6          18,000

13
Average Return on Investment

     Avg. Net Income   72,000 = 12,000
                         6

     Avg. Investment   100,000
                               = 50,000
                          2

     AROI              12,000   = 24%
                       50,000



14
Average Return on Investment


     Advantages



     Disadvantages




15
Payback Period Method

       Payback method - length of time it takes
       to repay the cost of initial investment
     Example
       LBS Ltd uses the payback period as its sole investment
       appraisal method. LBS invests £30,000 to replace its
       computers and this investment returns £9,000 annually
       for the five years. From the information above evaluate
       the investment using the payback. Assume that £9,000
       accrues evenly throughout the year.
       Answer : Payback Period : 3.33 Years
16
Payback Method

     # Years required to recover the original investment
     Example:
     CFO: 100,000
     Year           Net Income      Cash Flow       Cumulative CF
     1              6,000           26,000          26,000
     2              8,000           28,000          54,000
     3              11,000          31,000          85,000
     4              13,000          33,000          118,000
     5              16,000          36,000          154,000
     6              18,000          18,000 = 3.45 Years
                                                    172,000
     Payback =       3 + 100,000 - 85,000
17
                         118,000 - 85,000
Payback Method


     Advantages



     Disadvantages




18
Time Value of Money

     FV = PV (1 + r)n

     Compounding:       Finding FV

     Discounting:       Finding PV: PV = FV/(1 + r) n

     Internal Rate
       of Return:       Finding r



19
Definitions
     • Present value:- the amount of money you must invest
       or lend at the present time so as to end up with a
       particular amount of money in the future.

     • Discounting: -finding the present value of a future cash
       flow




20
Net Present Value
     • Net Present Value (NPV) - the difference between the
       present values of cash inflows and outflows of an
       investment
     • Opportunity cost of undertaking the investment is the
       alternative of earning interest rate in the financial
       market.




21
Net Present Value
     Net Present Value of an Investment is the present value of all its present and future
     cash flows, discounted at the opportunity cost of those cash flows. NPV is
     mathematically represented as:




     Where: CF0 = Cash flow at time zero (t0)
           CF1 = Cash flow at time one (t1), one year after time zero
22
Net Present Value


     NPV = Present Value of All Future Cash Flows less Inital Cost

          = CF1 + CF2 + CF3 +.......CFn - Io
           1+r    (1+r)2   (1+r)3   (1+r)n




23
Example-1
         A company can purchase a machine at the
     price of £2200. The machine has a productive
     life of three years and the net additions to cash
     inflows at the end of each of the three years are
     £770, £968 and £1331. The company can buy
     the machine without having to borrow and the
     best alternative is investment elsewhere at an
     interest rate of 10%.
     Evaluate the project using the
        a) Net present value method.
        b) Internal rate of return
24
Example-1
     NPV = 770 + 968 + 1331 -2,200 = 300
           (1.1) (1.1)2 (1.1)3
                 OR
     Year          Cash flow            Discount Factor (10%)               PV
     0             (2200)                     1.000                         (2200)
     1              770                       0.9091                          700
     2              968                       0.8264                          800
     3             1331                       0.7513                         1000
     NPV                                                                      300
     Comments:
25
     The project is worthwhile and the machine should be bought (can you suggest why?)
NPV-Example-2

     A firm invest £180,000 in a project that will
     give a net cash inflow of 50,000 in real terms in
     each of the next six years. Its real pre-tax cost
     of capital is 13%.
     Required:
     Calculate NPV




26
Example-2
     Solution
     Year       Cash Flow        PV factor 13%               Present
     0         (180,000)         1.00                       (180,000)
     1          50,000           0.885                         44,250
     2          50,000           0.783                         39,150
     3          50,000           0.693                         34,650
     4          50,000           0.613                         30,650
     5           50,000          0.543                         27,150
      6           50,000         0.480                         24,000
     NPV                                                      19,850
     Positive NPV indicates viability of the project.
     Negative NPV indicates non-viability of the project.




27
Net Present Value – Example-3

     Year    CF       Disc. Factor           PV
     0      -100000   1                    -100000
     1       26000    1/1.1 = .9091         23637
     2       28000    1/(1.1)2 = .8264      23139
     3       31000    1/(1.1)3 = .7573      23290
     4       33000    1/(1.1)4 = .6830      22539
     5       36000    1/(1.1)5 = .6209      22352
     6       18000    1/(1.1)6 = .5645      10161

28                                    NPV = 25121
Net Present Value


     Advantages



     Disadvantages




29
Internal Rate of Return

     • Internal Rate of Return - is the discount rate
       that equates the present values of an
       investment’s cash inflows and outflows.
     • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - is the discount
       rate that causes an investment’s NPV to be zero




30
Internal Rate of Return
     Use interpolation method to calculate the IRR. The
     formula is as follows:




     Where:
        L = Lower rate of interest
        H = Higher rate of interest
        NL = NPV at lower rate of interest
        NH = NPV at higher rate of interest
31
Internal Rate of Return

     Discount rate that makes NPV Zero
       (i.e., that equates PV of benefits with the cost).

     IRR: Io = CF1 + CF2 + ..... + CFn
              1+r      (1+r)2         (1+r)n
                           Solve for r.

     Example:
     100,000 = 26000 + 28000 + 31000 + .......... + 18000
                 1+r     (1+r)2 (1+r)3         (1+r)6
32
Internal Rate of Return


     Advantages



     Disadvantages




33
Example-IRR
     Using Lecture example 1(above), calculate the internal
     rate of return for the project.




34
Example-IRR
     Solution
     IRR Try 15%
     Year         Cash flow Discount Factor (15%)
            PV
     0      (2200)        1.000            (2200)
     1       770          0.8696           669.59
     2       968          0.7561           731.90
     3      1331          0.6575           875.13
     NPV                                   76.62


35
Internal Rate of Return
     Year Cash flow DC (16%)        PV
     0 (2200)    1.000          (2200)
     1 770       0.8621        663.83
     2 968       0.7432         719.42
     3 1331      0.6407          852.77
     NPV                          36.01




36
Internal Rate of Return

     Year Cash flow DCF (17%) PV
     0     (2200)    1.000       (2200)
     1      770      0.8475      652.58
     2      968      0.7305      711.48
     3     1331      0.6244      831.08
     NPV                         (4.86)
     Interpolation
     16 + 36.01 / 40.87 = 16.88%
37
Profitability Index
     What Does Profitability Index Mean?
     An index that attempts to identify the relationship
     between the costs and benefits of a proposed project
     through the use of a ratio calculated as:




38
Profitability Index
     PI =   PV of all Benefits
             PV of all Cost

     Example:
          PV (Benefits) = 26000 + 28000 +.......... + 18000
                           1.1   (1.1)2         (1.1)6
                        = 125121
            PV (Cost)   = 100000
            PI = 125121 = 1.25
                 100000
39
Profitability Index


     Advantages:



     Disadvantages:




40
NPV Profile

     Year      CF      Disc. Factor          PV
     0      -100,000   1                  -100,000
     1        26,000   0.91                 23,636
     2        28,000   0.83                 23,140
     3        31,000   1/(1.1)3 = .7573     23,291
     4        33,000   1/(1.1)4 = .6830     22,539
     5        36,000   1/(1.1)5 = .6209     22,352
     6        18,000   1/(1.1)6 = .5645     10,161
                                     NPV = 25,121

41
NPV Profile

     Dis. Rate         NPV

        0%             7200

        5%            45725.7

       10%            25120.76

       15%             8711.838

       20%             -4538.97

       25%            -15376.1

42
NPV Profile

           80000
           60000
     NPV




           40000
           20000
               0
           -20000
                    0   0.05      0.1     0.15   0.2   0.25
                                    Disc. Rate
43
Choosing Between Projects

     Year      CF(A)      CF(B)
      0        -25000     -25000
      1          2000      21000
      2          2000      10000
      3         35000       2000

     NPV        6351       4606
     IRR        17%        22%
44
NPV Profile

      20,000
      15,000
      10,000
NPV




       5,000
           0
       -5,000 0%   5%     10%   15%    20%   25%   30%
      -10,000
                            Discount rate
Modified IRR
     The regular IRR may not always yield a value and in some cases a
     solution may not exist for IRR. To overcome this shortcomings of
     IRR we extend it to define a modified internal rate of return.
     MIRR value is always unique given that we have at least one
     negative and one positive net cash flow. The modified internal rate
     of return is a geometric average of the compounded future value
     of positive cash flows over the discounted present value of negative
     cash flows. Here we compound each positive cash flow at the
     reinvestment rate aka WACC or discount rate to find future
     value, and we discount each negative cash flow at the finance rate
     to find the present value. We then find the geometric average of
     this ratio of net future value over the net present value to come up
     with MIRR value

46
MIRR Formula




47
MIRR Example
      Let us show you MIRR Calculation with an example
     investment proposal. Let us assume we set out on an
     investment that requires an initial outlay of $100,000
     and we expect to receive benefits and incur costs as
     $40,000 35,000 -20,000 40,000 38,000 40,000. We
     further assume that our reinvestment rate (WACC or
     simply the discount rate) is 11% and finance rate is
     13%.




48
MIRR Calculation
      I will now show you step by step MIRR calculation for
     the net cash flows from our example. As you can see we
     compound each of the positive net cash flows at the
     reinvestment rate and get a net future value. We also
     discount each of the negative net cash flows to get a net
     present value. Finally we find the geometric average of
     the these two values to get the required MIRR value




49
Net Cash Flows
     Net Cash Flows
     CF0 = -100000
      CF1 = 40000
      CF2 = 35000
      CF3 = -20000
      CF4 = 40000
      CF5 = 38000
      CF6 = 40000.




50
Compounded Net Cash Flows at 11%


     Compounded Net Cash Flows at 11%
      CCF1 = 40000 x (1+11%)5 = 40000 x 1.68506 = 67402.33
      CCF2 = 35000 x (1+11%)4 = 35000 x 1.51807 = 53132.46
      CCF4 = 40000 x (1+11%)2 = 40000 x 1.2321 = 49284
      CCF5 = 38000 x (1+11%)1 = 38000 x 1.11 = 42180
      CCF6 = 40000. x (1+11%)0 = 40000. x 1 = 40000
      FV = 251998.79




51
Discounted Net Cash Flows at 13%


     Discounted Net Cash Flows at 13%
        DCF0 = -100000 / (1+13%)0 = -100000 x 1 = -100000
       DCF3 = -20000 / (1+13%)3 = -20000 x 1.4429 = -13861
       PV = -113861




52
MIRR Calculation
     MIRR Calculation
     MIRR = (-FV/PV)1/n-1-1
     MIRR = (-251998.79/-113861)1/6-1
     MIRR = 1.1415735830404 - 1
     MIRR = 0.14157358304039
     MIRR = 14.16%




53
Estimating Cash Flows

     NPV =        CF1 + CF2 +.............. + CFn - Io
                  l+r     (l+r)2             (l+r)n

     Cash Flows   Incremental
                  After Tax
                  Net Working Capital
                  Sunk Costs




54
Procedure

     1. Initial Costs:         New CAPEX
                               Additional W. Cap
                               Sale of Old Assets

     2. Annual Costs:          Revenue Less Costs
                               After Tax

     3. Terminal Cash Flows:   Salvage Value
                               Recoupment of NWC

55
Cash Flow Estimates

     Sale of Existing Plant
             CF= Selling Price + T (B.V. - S.P.)

     Annual Cash Flows
          OCF= (Sales-Cost)(1-T) + T, DEPREC
                       or
          OCF= Net Inc + Depreciation




56
New Product Proposal

     Annual Sales          $20m
     Annual Costs          $16m
     Net Working Capital   $2m
     Plant Site            $0.5m
     Plant and Equipment   $10m
     Depreciation          Straight Line over 20 years
     Salvage Value         nil
     Tax Rate              40%
     Required Return        8%

57
New Product Proposal


     INITIAL CASH FLOWS




     ANNUAL CASH FLOWS




58
New Product Proposal


     TERMINAL CASH FLOWS




     CALCULATION




59
Evaluating Capital Projects

     1) Focus on Cash Flow, Not Profits.
         – Cash Flow = Economic Reality.
         – Profits Can Be Managed.
     2) Carefully Estimate Expected Future Cash Flows.
     3) Select a Discount Rate Consistent with the Risk of
        Those Future Cash Flows.
     4) Account for the Time Value of Money.
     5) Compute a “Base-Case” NPV.


60
Evaluating Capital Projects

     6) Net Present Value = Value Created or Destroyed by the
        Project.
         – NPV is the Amount by which the Value of the Firm
           Will Change if you Undertake the Project.
     7)Identify Risks and Uncertainties. Run a Sensitivity
        Analysis.
         – Identify “Key Value Drivers.”
         – Identify Breakeven Assumptions.
         – Estimate Scenario Values.
         – Bound the Range of Value
61
Evaluating Capital Projects

     8) Identify Qualitative Issues.
         – Flexibility
         – Quality
         – Know-How
         – Learning
     9) Decide




62

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Capital budgeting

  • 1. Capital Budgeting Dr. Rakesh Sharma School of Behavioral Sciences & Business Studies Thapar University,Patiala 1
  • 2. Capital Budget Capital budget is the budget of capital expenditures. Capital Expenditures are those expenditures whose benefit spread in number of years e.g., purchase of Plant and Machinery , Land and building and starting a new factory plant etc. 2
  • 3. CAPITAL BUDGETING Capital budgeting: is the planning process for allocating all expenditures that will have an expected benefit to the firm for more than one year. 3
  • 4. Investment Appraisal Firms normally place projects in the following categories: • Replacement and maintenance of old or damaged equipment. • Investments to upgrade or replace existing equipment • Marketing investments to expand product lines or distribution facilities. • Investments for complying with government or 4
  • 5. OVERALL AIM To maximise shareholders wealth.. Projects should give a return over and above the marginal weighted average cost of capital. Projects can be; Mutually exclusive Independent 5
  • 6. IDEAL SELECTION METHOD • Select the project that maximises shareholders wealth • Consider all cash flows • Discount the cash flows at the appropriate market determined opportunity cost of capital 6
  • 7. Need for Investment Appraisal • Large amount of resources are involved and wrong decisions could be costly • Difficult and expensive to reverse • Investment decisions can have a direct impact on the ability of the organisation to meet its objectives 7
  • 8. Investment Appraisal Process Stages: • identify objectives. What is it? Within the corporate objectives? • Identify alternatives. • Collect and analyse data. Examine the technical and economic feasibility of the project, cash flows etc. 8
  • 9. Investment Appraisal Process Stages: • decide which one to undertake • authorisation and implementation • review and monitor: learn from its experience and try to improve future decision - making 9
  • 10. Capital Budgeting - Methods 1. Accounting Rate of return 2. Payback 3. Net Present Value 4. Internal Rate of Return 10
  • 11. Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) Accounting Rate of Return method relates average annual profit to either the amount initially invested or the average investment, as a percentage. Formulae: ARR = Average annual accounting profit x 100 Average investment Where: • Average annual profit = Total profit/Number of years 11 • Average investment = (initial capital investment + scrap value) / 2
  • 12. Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) ARR = Avg. Net Income Per Year Avg. Investment 12
  • 13. Average Return on Investment Example: Year Net Income Cost 1 6,000 100,000 Initial 2 8,000 0 Salvage Value 3 11,000 4 13,000 5 16,000 6 18,000 13
  • 14. Average Return on Investment Avg. Net Income 72,000 = 12,000 6 Avg. Investment 100,000 = 50,000 2 AROI 12,000 = 24% 50,000 14
  • 15. Average Return on Investment Advantages Disadvantages 15
  • 16. Payback Period Method Payback method - length of time it takes to repay the cost of initial investment Example LBS Ltd uses the payback period as its sole investment appraisal method. LBS invests £30,000 to replace its computers and this investment returns £9,000 annually for the five years. From the information above evaluate the investment using the payback. Assume that £9,000 accrues evenly throughout the year. Answer : Payback Period : 3.33 Years 16
  • 17. Payback Method # Years required to recover the original investment Example: CFO: 100,000 Year Net Income Cash Flow Cumulative CF 1 6,000 26,000 26,000 2 8,000 28,000 54,000 3 11,000 31,000 85,000 4 13,000 33,000 118,000 5 16,000 36,000 154,000 6 18,000 18,000 = 3.45 Years 172,000 Payback = 3 + 100,000 - 85,000 17 118,000 - 85,000
  • 18. Payback Method Advantages Disadvantages 18
  • 19. Time Value of Money FV = PV (1 + r)n Compounding: Finding FV Discounting: Finding PV: PV = FV/(1 + r) n Internal Rate of Return: Finding r 19
  • 20. Definitions • Present value:- the amount of money you must invest or lend at the present time so as to end up with a particular amount of money in the future. • Discounting: -finding the present value of a future cash flow 20
  • 21. Net Present Value • Net Present Value (NPV) - the difference between the present values of cash inflows and outflows of an investment • Opportunity cost of undertaking the investment is the alternative of earning interest rate in the financial market. 21
  • 22. Net Present Value Net Present Value of an Investment is the present value of all its present and future cash flows, discounted at the opportunity cost of those cash flows. NPV is mathematically represented as: Where: CF0 = Cash flow at time zero (t0) CF1 = Cash flow at time one (t1), one year after time zero 22
  • 23. Net Present Value NPV = Present Value of All Future Cash Flows less Inital Cost = CF1 + CF2 + CF3 +.......CFn - Io 1+r (1+r)2 (1+r)3 (1+r)n 23
  • 24. Example-1 A company can purchase a machine at the price of £2200. The machine has a productive life of three years and the net additions to cash inflows at the end of each of the three years are £770, £968 and £1331. The company can buy the machine without having to borrow and the best alternative is investment elsewhere at an interest rate of 10%. Evaluate the project using the a) Net present value method. b) Internal rate of return 24
  • 25. Example-1 NPV = 770 + 968 + 1331 -2,200 = 300 (1.1) (1.1)2 (1.1)3 OR Year Cash flow Discount Factor (10%) PV 0 (2200) 1.000 (2200) 1 770 0.9091 700 2 968 0.8264 800 3 1331 0.7513 1000 NPV 300 Comments: 25 The project is worthwhile and the machine should be bought (can you suggest why?)
  • 26. NPV-Example-2 A firm invest £180,000 in a project that will give a net cash inflow of 50,000 in real terms in each of the next six years. Its real pre-tax cost of capital is 13%. Required: Calculate NPV 26
  • 27. Example-2 Solution Year Cash Flow PV factor 13% Present 0 (180,000) 1.00 (180,000) 1 50,000 0.885 44,250 2 50,000 0.783 39,150 3 50,000 0.693 34,650 4 50,000 0.613 30,650 5 50,000 0.543 27,150 6 50,000 0.480 24,000 NPV 19,850 Positive NPV indicates viability of the project. Negative NPV indicates non-viability of the project. 27
  • 28. Net Present Value – Example-3 Year CF Disc. Factor PV 0 -100000 1 -100000 1 26000 1/1.1 = .9091 23637 2 28000 1/(1.1)2 = .8264 23139 3 31000 1/(1.1)3 = .7573 23290 4 33000 1/(1.1)4 = .6830 22539 5 36000 1/(1.1)5 = .6209 22352 6 18000 1/(1.1)6 = .5645 10161 28 NPV = 25121
  • 29. Net Present Value Advantages Disadvantages 29
  • 30. Internal Rate of Return • Internal Rate of Return - is the discount rate that equates the present values of an investment’s cash inflows and outflows. • Internal Rate of Return (IRR) - is the discount rate that causes an investment’s NPV to be zero 30
  • 31. Internal Rate of Return Use interpolation method to calculate the IRR. The formula is as follows: Where: L = Lower rate of interest H = Higher rate of interest NL = NPV at lower rate of interest NH = NPV at higher rate of interest 31
  • 32. Internal Rate of Return Discount rate that makes NPV Zero (i.e., that equates PV of benefits with the cost). IRR: Io = CF1 + CF2 + ..... + CFn 1+r (1+r)2 (1+r)n Solve for r. Example: 100,000 = 26000 + 28000 + 31000 + .......... + 18000 1+r (1+r)2 (1+r)3 (1+r)6 32
  • 33. Internal Rate of Return Advantages Disadvantages 33
  • 34. Example-IRR Using Lecture example 1(above), calculate the internal rate of return for the project. 34
  • 35. Example-IRR Solution IRR Try 15% Year Cash flow Discount Factor (15%) PV 0 (2200) 1.000 (2200) 1 770 0.8696 669.59 2 968 0.7561 731.90 3 1331 0.6575 875.13 NPV 76.62 35
  • 36. Internal Rate of Return Year Cash flow DC (16%) PV 0 (2200) 1.000 (2200) 1 770 0.8621 663.83 2 968 0.7432 719.42 3 1331 0.6407 852.77 NPV 36.01 36
  • 37. Internal Rate of Return Year Cash flow DCF (17%) PV 0 (2200) 1.000 (2200) 1 770 0.8475 652.58 2 968 0.7305 711.48 3 1331 0.6244 831.08 NPV (4.86) Interpolation 16 + 36.01 / 40.87 = 16.88% 37
  • 38. Profitability Index What Does Profitability Index Mean? An index that attempts to identify the relationship between the costs and benefits of a proposed project through the use of a ratio calculated as: 38
  • 39. Profitability Index PI = PV of all Benefits PV of all Cost Example: PV (Benefits) = 26000 + 28000 +.......... + 18000 1.1 (1.1)2 (1.1)6 = 125121 PV (Cost) = 100000 PI = 125121 = 1.25 100000 39
  • 40. Profitability Index Advantages: Disadvantages: 40
  • 41. NPV Profile Year CF Disc. Factor PV 0 -100,000 1 -100,000 1 26,000 0.91 23,636 2 28,000 0.83 23,140 3 31,000 1/(1.1)3 = .7573 23,291 4 33,000 1/(1.1)4 = .6830 22,539 5 36,000 1/(1.1)5 = .6209 22,352 6 18,000 1/(1.1)6 = .5645 10,161 NPV = 25,121 41
  • 42. NPV Profile Dis. Rate NPV 0% 7200 5% 45725.7 10% 25120.76 15% 8711.838 20% -4538.97 25% -15376.1 42
  • 43. NPV Profile 80000 60000 NPV 40000 20000 0 -20000 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 Disc. Rate 43
  • 44. Choosing Between Projects Year CF(A) CF(B) 0 -25000 -25000 1 2000 21000 2 2000 10000 3 35000 2000 NPV 6351 4606 IRR 17% 22% 44
  • 45. NPV Profile 20,000 15,000 10,000 NPV 5,000 0 -5,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% -10,000 Discount rate
  • 46. Modified IRR The regular IRR may not always yield a value and in some cases a solution may not exist for IRR. To overcome this shortcomings of IRR we extend it to define a modified internal rate of return. MIRR value is always unique given that we have at least one negative and one positive net cash flow. The modified internal rate of return is a geometric average of the compounded future value of positive cash flows over the discounted present value of negative cash flows. Here we compound each positive cash flow at the reinvestment rate aka WACC or discount rate to find future value, and we discount each negative cash flow at the finance rate to find the present value. We then find the geometric average of this ratio of net future value over the net present value to come up with MIRR value 46
  • 48. MIRR Example Let us show you MIRR Calculation with an example investment proposal. Let us assume we set out on an investment that requires an initial outlay of $100,000 and we expect to receive benefits and incur costs as $40,000 35,000 -20,000 40,000 38,000 40,000. We further assume that our reinvestment rate (WACC or simply the discount rate) is 11% and finance rate is 13%. 48
  • 49. MIRR Calculation I will now show you step by step MIRR calculation for the net cash flows from our example. As you can see we compound each of the positive net cash flows at the reinvestment rate and get a net future value. We also discount each of the negative net cash flows to get a net present value. Finally we find the geometric average of the these two values to get the required MIRR value 49
  • 50. Net Cash Flows Net Cash Flows CF0 = -100000 CF1 = 40000 CF2 = 35000 CF3 = -20000 CF4 = 40000 CF5 = 38000 CF6 = 40000. 50
  • 51. Compounded Net Cash Flows at 11% Compounded Net Cash Flows at 11% CCF1 = 40000 x (1+11%)5 = 40000 x 1.68506 = 67402.33 CCF2 = 35000 x (1+11%)4 = 35000 x 1.51807 = 53132.46 CCF4 = 40000 x (1+11%)2 = 40000 x 1.2321 = 49284 CCF5 = 38000 x (1+11%)1 = 38000 x 1.11 = 42180 CCF6 = 40000. x (1+11%)0 = 40000. x 1 = 40000 FV = 251998.79 51
  • 52. Discounted Net Cash Flows at 13% Discounted Net Cash Flows at 13% DCF0 = -100000 / (1+13%)0 = -100000 x 1 = -100000 DCF3 = -20000 / (1+13%)3 = -20000 x 1.4429 = -13861 PV = -113861 52
  • 53. MIRR Calculation MIRR Calculation MIRR = (-FV/PV)1/n-1-1 MIRR = (-251998.79/-113861)1/6-1 MIRR = 1.1415735830404 - 1 MIRR = 0.14157358304039 MIRR = 14.16% 53
  • 54. Estimating Cash Flows NPV = CF1 + CF2 +.............. + CFn - Io l+r (l+r)2 (l+r)n Cash Flows Incremental After Tax Net Working Capital Sunk Costs 54
  • 55. Procedure 1. Initial Costs: New CAPEX Additional W. Cap Sale of Old Assets 2. Annual Costs: Revenue Less Costs After Tax 3. Terminal Cash Flows: Salvage Value Recoupment of NWC 55
  • 56. Cash Flow Estimates Sale of Existing Plant CF= Selling Price + T (B.V. - S.P.) Annual Cash Flows OCF= (Sales-Cost)(1-T) + T, DEPREC or OCF= Net Inc + Depreciation 56
  • 57. New Product Proposal Annual Sales $20m Annual Costs $16m Net Working Capital $2m Plant Site $0.5m Plant and Equipment $10m Depreciation Straight Line over 20 years Salvage Value nil Tax Rate 40% Required Return 8% 57
  • 58. New Product Proposal INITIAL CASH FLOWS ANNUAL CASH FLOWS 58
  • 59. New Product Proposal TERMINAL CASH FLOWS CALCULATION 59
  • 60. Evaluating Capital Projects 1) Focus on Cash Flow, Not Profits. – Cash Flow = Economic Reality. – Profits Can Be Managed. 2) Carefully Estimate Expected Future Cash Flows. 3) Select a Discount Rate Consistent with the Risk of Those Future Cash Flows. 4) Account for the Time Value of Money. 5) Compute a “Base-Case” NPV. 60
  • 61. Evaluating Capital Projects 6) Net Present Value = Value Created or Destroyed by the Project. – NPV is the Amount by which the Value of the Firm Will Change if you Undertake the Project. 7)Identify Risks and Uncertainties. Run a Sensitivity Analysis. – Identify “Key Value Drivers.” – Identify Breakeven Assumptions. – Estimate Scenario Values. – Bound the Range of Value 61
  • 62. Evaluating Capital Projects 8) Identify Qualitative Issues. – Flexibility – Quality – Know-How – Learning 9) Decide 62