Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems and Adaptation Strategy. Presented by Tatyana Yashina at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.

1. Katunskiy Biosphere Reserve UNDP-ICI Project “Extension of Protected Areas Network for
Conservation of the Altai-Sayan Ecoregion”
Global Change in Katunskiy Biosphere
Reserve: Vulnerability of ecosystems
and Adaptation Strategy
Tatyana Yashina
Global Change And Mountain Regions. Perth, Scotland, September, 2010

2. Altai-Sayan designated as one
of WWF Global 200 Ecoregions
of the World is located at the
center of Asia at area of > than
1 mln sq km and shared by
Russia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia
and China
Katunskiy BR is
located at the
boundary of Russia
and Kazakhstan. The
highest peak of
Siberia (Mt. Belukha,
4506) is located
within its transition
zone.

3. Katunskiy BR
• Area ~600 000 ha
• Altitudes +750 … +4506 m
• Core zone – a water tower
for huge areas
• UNESCO World Natural
Heritage Site
• Habitats of endangered
animals (Snow leopard,
Musk deer…)

4. Diversity of Ecosystems
•
Glacial and Nival Ecosystems 24%

5. Alpine and Subalpine
Meadows, 30%
•

6. Montane forests
43%
•

7. •
Combination of woods
and steppes, 2%

8. Steppes of intermontane
hollows, 1%
•

9. Land Uses
• 9 villages (population ~4000)
• Active tourism
• Agriculture (grazing)
Traditional land use:
Deer farming
Collection of medicinal plants
and other non-timber products
Hunting, fishing
Apiculture

10. 6 Climate Change
(Kharlamova, 2010)
4
2
Температура, град.С
0
1838 1848 1858 1868 1878 1888 1898 1908 1918 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008
-2
-4
Increase of annual temperature for last
50 years:
-6 Ust-Koksa (998 m asl) +2,10C
Akkem (2200 m asl) +1,450C
-8
Годы
Барнаул Усть-Кокса Кош-Агач
10-летние скользящие Барнаул 10-летние скользящие Усть-Кокса 10-летние скользящие Кош-Агач

11. Climate Change Scenario
• No sophisticated regional
modeling
• Several researches (Parfenova
et al, 2000, Mikhaylov et al,
1992) indicate following
conditions as the most
probable climate change
scenario in the Altai mountains
for next 40 years: increase of
annual precipitation by 20%
and increase of summer
temperatures by 20C.

12. Changes In Water And Hydrology
Tomich Glacier In Katunskiy BR:
1970 (Photo: V. Galakhov)
• 60-65% or total
water influx is
caused by melting of
ice and snow.
• Glaciers retreated
2008 (Photo: O. Ostanin)
by 19,7% during
1952-2004
(Nosenko,
Khromova, 2010)

13. • Increase of temperatures, especially in
summer season will cause
intensification of glacier melting.
Sophisticated research efforts are
required for quantitative estimation
the role of more intensive glacier
melting in river discharge formation,
because the increase of precipitation
should also be considered.
• Glacier melting will decrease the
amount of water stored in glaciers and
in the long-term perspective will
negatively affect the river discharge in
summer season.
• Increased by 20% precipitation,
especially in winter seasons, as
projected by WWF (2001), will cause
increased probability of extreme
floods.

14. Ecosystem Response: Biodiversity
Modern (a) and
projected for
2090 (б) number
of flora species
(after
Chebakova,
Parfenova,
Assessment
report, 2009).
0 – water, 1 – up to 100,
2 – 100-300, 3 – 300-
600, 4 – 600-900, 5 –
900-1200, 6 – 1200-
1500, 7 – 1500-1800, 8
– 1800-2100, 9 – 2100-
3000, 10 – 3000-4000.
• For the Altai mountains the increase of the number of
flora species is expected caused by northward migration
of the steppe and desert species from Mongolia.

15. Ecosystem Response: Upper Treeline
• upward shift of the treeline (by 50-100 m for 2090)
and subalpine shrubs (by 100-200 m) (Mikhailov et al.,
1992)
• fragmentation of alpine ecosystems.

16. Land Use Scenario
• 2010 - 2019:
• Construction of the mini-
hydropower station at the
Multa river
• Organization of the
touristic complex in Verkh-
Ujmon village
• Wood-processing
enterprise in Ognyevka
village
• Livestock enterprises in
large villages
• Small enterprises on
medicinal plants packaging
Source: Long-term complex program of socio-
• 2019-2029: economic development of Ust-Koksa district,
• Construction of large all- 2009
year ski resort

17. Environmental Concerns
• Generally reduced (in comparison with current
state) pressure on wildlife from poaching caused
by increased employment and income of local
people;
• Increased grazing pressure on summer pastures
up to the level of 1985;
• At transport-accessed sites the rate of
deforestation will increase by demand of wood-
processing industry, however, this negative
impact will occur at limited locations of small
area.

18. Maral (Red deer) farm
Climate Change Global Market
Actors:
Local people
Institutions
Environment: Socio-economic realm:
-Changes of plant composition, -Changes of land use (extensive
spp richness, … way of farm development)
- decrease of the resources - lands used to be in collective
of medicinal plants traditional use are in private farm,
- increase of erosion so people can’t use it for grazing,
-change of migrations hayfields, apiaries, collection of
of wild ungulates medicinal plants
-Degradation of surrounding lands - Decrease of income of local people
(over use)

19. Adaptation Strategy - principles
The aim: to maintain ecosystem services of
the territory of Katunskiy BR and to reduce
the vulnerability of local communities to
global change,
Guiding principles:
Usage of adaptive management to maintain
flexibility
Monitoring and tracking changes in weather,
hydrology, ecosystems and land use
Identification of possible futures through
modeling
Maintaining the resiliency of ecosystems and
minimizing stress at the core zone
Raising public awareness on the effects of
global change
Implementation of demonstration project on
sustainable use of natural resources in
changing conditions

20. Adaptation Strategy Objectives
• Further designing of the monitoring program to
adequately detect the signals of the effects of climate
change and land use onto the natural ecosystems.
• Strengthening the partnerships with research institutions
for conducting modeling of changes in hydrology,
biodiversity and ecosystems.
• Implementation of connectivity conservation principles .
• Development of educational and interpretative programs
on the global change-related issues for different target
groups (children, farmers, decision-makers, visitors etc.)
• Implementation of demonstration projects:
– alternative energy supply (solar batteries, mini hydropower
schemes)
– sustainable tourism (focused on the most stressed areas in
the transition zone)
– diversification of vulnerable economies (maral farms).

21. Development of monitoring system
Monitoring of key biophysical
parameters along altitudinal
gradients:
•snow depth and water
content,
•air temperature
• Establishing altitudinal
profiles to monitor the
dynamics of upper treeline

22. Demonstration project on sustainable
tourism
Creation of recreational
infrastructure (camping sites)
Training for local unemployed
people as guides

23. Demonstration project on alternative
energy supply
• Installation of the
solar batteries at the
ranger stations of the
reserve
Financial support from US Fish and
Wildlife Service

24. Acknowledgements
• UNESCO-MAB
• UNESCO Moscow Office
• Institute of Geography RAS
• Russian MAB Committee
• UNDP-ICI Altai-Sayan Project
• US Fish and Wildlife Service
Thank you for your attention