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Lu et al. 2009




                                                     Diuk-Wasser 2012


                  Δ NPP               Δ NPP summer
                  Ciais et al. 2005




  Dry
  Days

IPPC 2007
e details Matter:
                                                   Natural History
                                                   Serving Society


                                  Joshua Tewksbury Walker Professor of Natural
                                  History, Department of Biology and College of the
                                  Environment, University of Washington

“Staying out of the fray is not   Kirsten Rowell
taking the 'high ground'; it is   Curator of Malacology, Burke Museum of Natural
    just passing the buck”
                                  History Culture, University of Washington
      (Steve Schneider)
e details Matter:
                                             Natural History
                                             Serving Society


                                  Stephanie Hampton, Jonathan Bakker,
                                   Noelle Machnicki, Jennifer Ruesink,
                                     John Anderson, Tim Billo, Terry
                                    Wheeler, Carlos Martinez del Rio,
“Staying out of the fray is not       Doug Levey, Liam Stacey, Peter
taking the 'high ground'; it is
    just passing the buck”        Dunwiddie, Steve Trombulak, Martha
      (Steve Schneider)            Groom, Mary Power, Anne Salomon
Importance:
                           Natural History
                      and predictive ecology

                       •  Importance

                       •  Decline?

                          –  Exposure

                          –  Experts

“Accuse not Nature.       –  Access
 She has done her
 part; Do ou but
       ine”
   (John Milton,
                       •  Future
Paradise Lost 1667)
Importance:
           Natural History
      and predictive ecology

e ideal scientist thinks
 like a poet and works
   like a bookkeeper.
  (E.O. Wilson, 1998)




                            Spencer et al.
                            1991
Importance:
                                                                    Natural History
                                                               and predictive ecology

                                                              1.2




                                  Cases of Cholera per 1000
                                                              1.0

                                                              0.8
                chlorophyll

                                                              0.6

Natural                                                       0.4
History                                                       0.2
protects       low    high
human      Colwell et al. 2003,                               0.0
                                                                    Control Nylon   Sari
 health    Huq et al 1996
Decline
                         Exposure, Experts, Access




     “Curiosity is
insubordination in its
     purest form”
 (Vladimir Nabokov)
Decline
Exposure, Experts, Access
Exposure:
minimum natural history
required for a BS in Biology
Exposure
  Is declining


                                                                   “To pay attention,
                                                                 this is our endless and
                                                                      proper work.”
                                                                      (Mary Oliver)
       2.25

              2.0

                    1.0



                                0.0

                                      0.0
                          0.5




                                            Year: P < 0.0001 (LRT test)
                                            (GLLM w/ 35 institutions; institution as
                                            random effect, Poisson error structure)
Exposure
natural history in introductory
biology texts from 1930 to 2011
Exposure
    is declining




                                         Natural history material in college
                                          biology textbooks (prop. of total)
 courses for a BS in Biology
  Minimum natural history



                                   0.6

                                                                                         “To pay attention,
                               3                                                       this is our endless and
                                   0.4                                                      proper work.”
                                                                                            (Mary Oliver)
                               2

                                   0.2
                               1

                                   0.0
                                                                               Modified Logistic
                                                                               [y =y0 + a/(1+(x/x0)b)] w/ 38
                                                                               texts): RSS / TSS = 0.92
Experts
Natural History in
graduate education




 First full facts,
then interpretations
(T. C. Chamberlain 1890)
Experts




                           Proportion of PhDs by Discipline (U.S.A)




                                                                                                             PhDs per year in Biological Sciences (U.S.)
                                                                      0.5                             7000
Natural History in                                                          Natural
graduate education                                                          history rich              6000
                                                                      0.4   Disciplines


We are                                                                                                5000
                                                                      0.3
entering the
                                                                                                      4000
molecular
                                                                      0.2
age…                                                                              microbiology and
                                                                                  molecular biology
                                                                                                      3000

                                                                      0.1                             2000


 First full facts,                                                    0.0                             1000
then interpretations
(T. C. Chamberlain 1890)
Access
 Consolidation of
 collections




                                                   Pay attention to the mystery. Rediscover in nature
“Do	
  bblack	
  rapes	
  oof	
  he	
   New York
 “Do	
  lack	
  g grapes	
  f	
  t the	
  
               B. iers, in                             your own biology. Write and speak with
   desert	
  have	
  	
  a	
  basic	
  
  desert	
  have	
  a basic	
  
  Botanicaltears?”	
  
       thirst	
  for	
   Garden's Virtual
                                                        appreciation for all you have been gifted.
   thirst	
  for	
  tears?”	
  
                                                                      (Barry Lopez)
         -­‐P.	
  NNeruda	
  
             -­‐P.	
   eruda	
  
                        Herbarium. (2012)
Access                                             US and Europe have been
 Consolidation of                                  losing herberia since 1990
 collections
                                                                      Europe




                                                                               Europe
                                                       Global                  US


                                                                        North
                                                                        America


“Do	
  bblack	
  rapes	
  oof	
  he	
   New York
 “Do	
  lack	
  g grapes	
  f	
  t the	
  
               B. iers, in
   desert	
  have	
  	
  a	
  basic	
  
  desert	
  have	
  a basic	
  
  Botanicaltears?”	
  
       thirst	
  for	
   Garden's Virtual
   thirst	
  for	
  tears?”	
  
         -­‐P.	
  NNeruda	
  
             -­‐P.	
   eruda	
  
                        Herbarium. (2012)
Importance:
                           Natural History
                      and predictive ecology

                       •  Importance

                       •  Decline

                          –  Exposure

                          –  Experts

“Accuse not Nature.       –  Access
 She has done her
 part; Do ou but
       ine”
   (John Milton,
                       •  Future
Paradise Lost 1667)
Future:
                          A prescription for 21st century ecology


                                           •  21st century
                                              – Collaboration
                                              – Curation
                                              – Transparency
                                              – Technology
                                           •  Science as Civics
“In the depth of winter                       – Saving the
  I finally learned that
   there was in me an
                                                world in our
  invincible summer”                            spare time
     (Albert Camas)
Nat. History Section Mixer     All art used in
6:30, Doubletree             collaboration with
three sisters room                the artists




e Initiative:
Natural History Network
e Burke Museum of Natural
History and Culture,
Prescott College,
BDSJS.COM, NCEAS

Funding: National Science
Foundation and e College
of Environment, UW

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TewksburyRowell2012

  • 1.
  • 2. Lu et al. 2009 Diuk-Wasser 2012 Δ NPP Δ NPP summer Ciais et al. 2005 Dry Days IPPC 2007
  • 3. e details Matter: Natural History Serving Society Joshua Tewksbury Walker Professor of Natural History, Department of Biology and College of the Environment, University of Washington “Staying out of the fray is not Kirsten Rowell taking the 'high ground'; it is Curator of Malacology, Burke Museum of Natural just passing the buck” History Culture, University of Washington (Steve Schneider)
  • 4. e details Matter: Natural History Serving Society Stephanie Hampton, Jonathan Bakker, Noelle Machnicki, Jennifer Ruesink, John Anderson, Tim Billo, Terry Wheeler, Carlos Martinez del Rio, “Staying out of the fray is not Doug Levey, Liam Stacey, Peter taking the 'high ground'; it is just passing the buck” Dunwiddie, Steve Trombulak, Martha (Steve Schneider) Groom, Mary Power, Anne Salomon
  • 5. Importance: Natural History and predictive ecology •  Importance •  Decline? –  Exposure –  Experts “Accuse not Nature. –  Access She has done her part; Do ou but ine” (John Milton, •  Future Paradise Lost 1667)
  • 6. Importance: Natural History and predictive ecology e ideal scientist thinks like a poet and works like a bookkeeper. (E.O. Wilson, 1998) Spencer et al. 1991
  • 7. Importance: Natural History and predictive ecology 1.2 Cases of Cholera per 1000 1.0 0.8 chlorophyll 0.6 Natural 0.4 History 0.2 protects low high human Colwell et al. 2003, 0.0 Control Nylon Sari health Huq et al 1996
  • 8. Decline Exposure, Experts, Access “Curiosity is insubordination in its purest form” (Vladimir Nabokov)
  • 11. Exposure Is declining “To pay attention, this is our endless and proper work.” (Mary Oliver) 2.25 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 Year: P < 0.0001 (LRT test) (GLLM w/ 35 institutions; institution as random effect, Poisson error structure)
  • 12. Exposure natural history in introductory biology texts from 1930 to 2011
  • 13. Exposure is declining Natural history material in college biology textbooks (prop. of total) courses for a BS in Biology Minimum natural history 0.6 “To pay attention, 3 this is our endless and 0.4 proper work.” (Mary Oliver) 2 0.2 1 0.0 Modified Logistic [y =y0 + a/(1+(x/x0)b)] w/ 38 texts): RSS / TSS = 0.92
  • 14. Experts Natural History in graduate education First full facts, then interpretations (T. C. Chamberlain 1890)
  • 15. Experts Proportion of PhDs by Discipline (U.S.A) PhDs per year in Biological Sciences (U.S.) 0.5 7000 Natural History in Natural graduate education history rich 6000 0.4 Disciplines We are 5000 0.3 entering the 4000 molecular 0.2 age… microbiology and molecular biology 3000 0.1 2000 First full facts, 0.0 1000 then interpretations (T. C. Chamberlain 1890)
  • 16. Access Consolidation of collections Pay attention to the mystery. Rediscover in nature “Do  bblack  rapes  oof  he   New York “Do  lack  g grapes  f  t the   B. iers, in your own biology. Write and speak with desert  have    a  basic   desert  have  a basic   Botanicaltears?”   thirst  for   Garden's Virtual appreciation for all you have been gifted. thirst  for  tears?”   (Barry Lopez) -­‐P.  NNeruda   -­‐P.   eruda   Herbarium. (2012)
  • 17. Access US and Europe have been Consolidation of losing herberia since 1990 collections Europe Europe Global US North America “Do  bblack  rapes  oof  he   New York “Do  lack  g grapes  f  t the   B. iers, in desert  have    a  basic   desert  have  a basic   Botanicaltears?”   thirst  for   Garden's Virtual thirst  for  tears?”   -­‐P.  NNeruda   -­‐P.   eruda   Herbarium. (2012)
  • 18. Importance: Natural History and predictive ecology •  Importance •  Decline –  Exposure –  Experts “Accuse not Nature. –  Access She has done her part; Do ou but ine” (John Milton, •  Future Paradise Lost 1667)
  • 19. Future: A prescription for 21st century ecology •  21st century – Collaboration – Curation – Transparency – Technology •  Science as Civics “In the depth of winter – Saving the I finally learned that there was in me an world in our invincible summer” spare time (Albert Camas)
  • 20. Nat. History Section Mixer All art used in 6:30, Doubletree collaboration with three sisters room the artists e Initiative: Natural History Network e Burke Museum of Natural History and Culture, Prescott College, BDSJS.COM, NCEAS Funding: National Science Foundation and e College of Environment, UW