The document discusses demographic transition theory and optimum population. Demographic transition theory refers to the transition from high birth and death rates to lower rates as a country develops. This is demonstrated through a demographic transition model. China adopted policies like the one-child policy that led to declining fertility and a demographic transition. While China's population growth is now only 0.7% annually, India's is still higher at 1.6% and India will surpass China in population size by 2050 if trends continue. India's youth population will not outnumber older groups for decades, allowing for higher growth potential through a demographic dividend if policies support productive employment and education. The concept of optimum population refers to the best population size given ecological sustainability and carrying
2. Demography
• The general science of studying human population.
• It is the statistics of the population that is subjected to
change in accordance with aging, birth, death, migration etc.
• The demography of any place helps to gather information
about the population, religion, language and ethnicity of
that place.
• Demography can be understood through census. Census
2011 -7th Census operation post India's Independence and
15th in total since; it began in the year 1981
3. Demographic Transition theory
• Demographic transition (DT) refers to the
transition from high birth and death rates to low
birth and death rates as a country develops from
a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic
system.
• This is typically demonstrated through
a demographic transition model (DTM). The
theory is based on an interpretation
of demographic history developed in 1929 by the
American demographer Warren Thompson
(1887–1973).
5. India vs China
• China’s population growth is only 0.7% per year (India with
1.6 billion, will surpass China with respect to population
size in 2050).
• India had 66% higher income per capita than China in 1980,
but by the early 1990s China overtook India.
• In 2008, the situation was reversed, with income per capita
in China double that of India.
• This income crossover is due to very different demographic
trajectories of China and India.
• China’s campaign of “later, longer, fewer” and its one-child
policy (beginning in 1979) led to a decline in fertility.
7. Indian Demography
• India’s 65 and over population currently
represents only one-fourth the number of its
adolescents and young adults.
• It will not outnumber the younger group for
nearly four decades.
• Fertility decline and rising longevity will rise the
working-age share creating higher growth rates in
India over the next 30 years
9. Nurturing the Demographic dividend
• Policies to meet the education and training needs of India’s
youth can ease the process of caring for growing numbers of
older Indians in the future.
• Behavioural and policy responses to population aging –
including higher labour force participation of women, higher
savings for retirement, and later age of retirement – suggest
that population aging will not necessarily significantly impede
economic growth.
• If India adopts policies that allow the working-age population
to be productively employed, India may receive a demographic
dividend of roughly 1% point growth in GDP, compounded
year by year.
11. Optimum Population
• The optimum population is the size of
a population that is the best out of several
outcomes.
• Estimations usually take
ecological sustainability and carrying
capacity more or less into account. Also,
optimum population can refer to a specific
area, such as a region or country, but can also
refer to the entire world or universe.