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Semelhante a EXAMPLE on Maestro Itais 2011 Paper20
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EXAMPLE on Maestro Itais 2011 Paper20
- 10. Our model 18 agents, 4 categories System indicators I1 Revenues” I2 “Stock” I3 “N Companies” I4 “Employment ” I5 “Sustainability” Equations ΔQ = f ( α ΔM, β ΔR) + ε ΔNa=f ( γ ΔM, δ ΔR, η ΔI)+ ε ΔI = Keynesian Variables M = Stocks R = Revenues Q = Companies Na = Employees I = Gross investments
- 13. Results – step by step
- 14. Results – policy evaluation
Notas do Editor
- Give the complexity of innovation policy evaluation and the challenges of modelling the system of innovation, we adopted a modelling strategy based on agent–based modelling in complex systems. the theoretical foundation of our a-b model is the Belief-Desire-Intention (BDI) architecture, introduced by Bratman (Bratman 1987) It consists of the concept of belief, desire and intention as mental attitudes, to mimic human actions. Beliefs capture informational attitudes, desires motivational attitudes, and intentions deliberative attitudes of agents
- Policy This provides an easy-to-use platform onto which engage in the evaluation of alternative scenarios. While the application of such modelling techniques is still at its inception, the model has given encouraging preliminary results. It is in fact appropriate to describe and analyse non-deterministic dynamics of complex systems yet conserving those statistical properties of econometric models relating to the explicative capacity of the model and the statistical significance of the results. Technology è scalabile con tutte le considerazioni sugli agenti e sullo schema Permette validazione con dati storici anche sparse