2. FLOODRESILIENCE
UFM DORDRECHT: Knowledge development by DESIGN
WORK PACKAGES: STAKEHOLDERS:
-Risk and Vulnerability assessment -Governement (federal, regional, local)
-Resilient Planning and Building -Research Institutes
-Urban Design -Water-board
-Communication and Emergency Response -Housing corporation
-Policy and Governance -Developers, Building industry
-Insurance Companies
-Citizens
Vulnerability assessment
Damage assessment
Flood modelling,
Vulnerability assessment Flood proofing technologies
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Guidelines
FLOOD RESILIENT DESIGN Communication FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
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3. FLOODRESILIENCE
UFM DORDRECHT: LEARNING by DOING, Iterative Process (Slow Prototyping)
PRACTISE: TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INFORMATION EXCHANGE
Vulnerability assessment
Damage assessment
Flood modelling,
Vulnerability assessment
Flood proofing technologies
DESIGN PROTOTYPES Communication
Guidelines
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4. FLOODRESILIENCE
INTERGRATED UFM: Incorporate flood impact reduction into the city
YET: CITIES ARE COMPLEX AND HIGHLY DIFFERENTIATED
NEED FOR A HIGHLY EXPRESSIVE VULNERABILITY/IMPACT MODEL
1. WHAT? Need for broad set of impact evaluation tools, climate scenarios
2. WHERE? Need for detailled impact assessment
3. WHEN? Need for incorporation of renewal strategies
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5. FLOODRESILIENCE
FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
TERMINOLOGY
• Tangible damages: expressed in money (direct, indirect)
• Intangible damages: Cannot be expressed in money (culture, health, etc.)
• Direct damages: cleaning, repair, replacement, etc.
• Indirect damages: business interruption, ‘ripple effects’, etc.
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6. FLOODRESILIENCE
FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT
TERMINOLOGY
• Cummulative frequency: find frequency of occurence of some value (e.g. dis-
charge, water stage)-> from historical records
• Return period: period in which the event occurs
• Exceedance probability = return period-1 -> Probability that a given value
(e.g. discharge, water stage) is exceeded
COMMON MISCONCEPTIONS:
• A 100 year flood doesn’t happen every 100 years
• A 10000 year flood is based on flood records
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7. FLOODRESILIENCE
FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT: Only from the ‘driver’ perspective
2D FLOOD SIMULATIONS: 4000-1 EP
High resolution (max 10x10m grid), including sewer
Inundation, Velocity for a multitude of design floods events
limited inundation depth (<1m) limited flow velocities (<0.75m3/s)
FLOOD RISK FOCUSSED ON FLOOD EXTENT AND INUNDATION DEPTH
-Little knowledge about impact assessment FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
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8. FLOODRESILIENCE
CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
1. STAGE-DAMAGE FUNCTION
• Relates inundation depth to damage level
• Differs per feature type, region
• Can be composed of different damage contributors
• Can be multi-modal (inundation depth, velocity, duration)
40000
35000
30000
25000
damage [€]
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
0 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 2,4 2,9
water stage [m]
Cleaning Floors & Walls Doors Kitchen Installation
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Stage damage curve for detached housing
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9. FLOODRESILIENCE
CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
2. 2D OR 1D-2D FLOOD SIMULATION
• Generates maximum inundation depth per grid-cell
• Apply different flood scenarios (i.e. EPs associated to a water stage)
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Flood extent for different EPs
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10. FLOODRESILIENCE
CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
3. APPLICATION OF STAGE-DAMAGE FUNCTION AND 2D INUNDATION MAP
• Classification of individual features
.... Classify feature
0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1 0,3 0,6 0,9 1,2 1,5 1,8 2,1
water stage [m] water stage [m] water stage [m]
H1 H2 Hn
Attributes feature Fi (e.g. house)
• type
• area
• location
• etc.
Flood characteristics at location (Xi, Yi)
• depth
• velocity
• duration
• etc.
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11. FLOODRESILIENCE
CALCULATING DAMAGE FOR INDIVIDUAL FEATURES
4. RESULTING AGGREGATE DAMAGE LEVELS
• Water stage - Expected damage
180
160
5.8845
y = 4E-08x
140
expected Damage [m€]
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450
water stage [cm +NAP]
• Return periods - Expected damage
Current
40
35
30
expected Damage [m€]
25
20
15
10
5
0
10 100 1000 10000
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return period [Y]
Current
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12. FLOODRESILIENCE
STAGE-DAMAGE CURVES: ATTRIBUTES
MEAN ANNUAL DAMAGE (MAD)
• Average contribution of each damage level per year
d i 1 d i
Pmax I
MAD D( p)d p
P0 i 1 2
pi
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Damage [x mln € ]
90
80
70
MAD
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20000
10000
4000
2000
1000
500
250
100
50
25
10
Exceedance probability -1 [-](Water stage [m +NAP])
2100 Total
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13. FLOODRESILIENCE
STAGE-DAMAGE CURVES: ATTRIBUTES
SENSITIVITY
• Maximum value for the derative of the stage-damage curve.
d d
SENSITIVITY max i 1 i 1 d max
P P
i 1 i 1
160
150 SENSITIVITY
140
130
120
110
100
Damage [x mln € ]
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20000
10000
4000
2000
1000
500
250
100
50
25
10
Exceedance probability -1 [-](Water stage [m +NAP])
2100 Total
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14. FLOODRESILIENCE
STAGE-DAMAGE CURVES: ATTRIBUTES
GRADUALITY
• Identify discontinuities in the derivates of the stage-damage curve
N Pi Di
GRADUALITY 1
p 1 2
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Damage [x mln € ]
90
80
70 Strong inflection point
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
20000
10000
4000
2000
1000
500
250
100
50
25
10
Exceedance probability -1 [-](Water stage [m +NAP])
2100 Total
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15. FLOODRESILIENCE
RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?)
HIGH LEVEL OF DETAIL: High precision but low usability
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Dordrecht outer marches: Damage Distribution
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16. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?)
GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTION(CLUSTERING): High usability
(where)
€17.545.537 (71%)
€147.886 (1%)
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Dordrecht outer marches: Damage Clustering
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17. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?)
Example from Rotterdam-Rijnmond(where)
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Rotterdm-Rijnmond: Damage Clustering EP = 10000-1
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18. Goedereede
Hellevoetsluis
Dirksland
Brielle
Middelharnis
Rozenburg
Maassluis
Bernisse
Korendijk
Vlaardingen
Rotterdam
Oostflakkee
Schiedam
Spijkenisse
Oud-Beijerland
Cromstrijen
Moerdijk
Barendrecht
Strijen
Capelle aan den IJssel
Krimpen aan den IJssel
Moerdijk
Nederlek
Zwijndrecht
Nieuw-Lekkerland
Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht
Alblasserdam
Dordrecht
Papendrecht
Werkendam
Bergambacht
Sliedrecht
Liesveld
Drimmelen
Geertruidenberg
Schoonhoven
Hardinxveld-Giessendam
ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION: Damage per Municipality
Lopik
Gorinchem
Woudrichem
WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?)
Zaltbommel
Lingewaal
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19. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (where?)
ADMINISTRATIVE DISTRIBUTION: Damage per Neighborhood
1. DIFFERENTIATED
2. ‘CEILINGS’
3. HIERARCHY (4 Nhoods account for about 40% total expected damage)
€ 8.0
€ 7.5
1e Merwedehaven en omgeving
€ 7.0 2e Merwedehaven en omgeving
3e Merwedehaven
€ 6.5 Achterhakkers en omgeving
Beekmanstraat en omgeving
€ 6.0
Bleijenhoek
€ 5.5 Boogjes en omgeving
Groenmarkt en omgeving
€ 5.0 Grote Markt en omgeving
Damage [x mln € ]
Handelskade en 's-Gravendeelsedijk
€ 4.5
Julianahaven
€ 4.0 Kalkhaven
Krabbegors
€ 3.5
Lijnbaan
€ 3.0 Maasstraat en omgeving
Merwelanden
€ 2.5 Krabbepolder
Nieuwe Haven en omgeving
€ 2.0
Noorderkwartier
€ 1.5 Plein 1940-1945 en omgeving
Wantijpark en omgeving
€ 1.0 Weeskinderendijk en Dokweg
Wijnstraat en omgeving
€ 0.5
Wilhelminahaven
€ 0.0
20000
10000
4000
2000
1000
500
250
100
50
25
10
Exceedance probability-1 [-] FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
Dordrecht outer marches: Damage distribution per neighborhood
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20. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (when?)
TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION: Lifecycle management
1. PROACTIVE RETROFITTING (up to 32.3% damages to historical buildings)
2. REACTIVE RETROFITTING (end of lifecycle)
3. RENEWAL SCHEMES (up to 67.8% damages on post-war buildings)
CHANCES FOR INTEGRATED UFM
8
7
Damage [x million €]
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
till 1904
1905-1909
1910-1914
1915-1919
1920-1924
1925-1929
1930-1934
1935-1939
1940-1944
1945-1949
1950-1954
1955-1959
1960-1964
1965-1969
1970-1974
1975-1979
1980-1984
1985-1989
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2004
Year of construction[y]
1/4000 1/2000 1/1000 1/500 1/250 1/100 1/50 1/25 1/10 FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
Dordrecht outer marches: Damage distribution age housing stock
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21. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3 RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model (what?)
FUNCTIONAL DISTRIBUTION:
-Features (e.g. businesses, housing, infrastructure, public space)
-Typologies (e.g. row houses, appartments, detached houses)
-Components (e.g. cleaning costs, structural damage, interior damage)
DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE OVER BUILDING TYPOLOGY DAMAGE COMPONENTS
Damage over Typology
0.053
0.039
300 0.023
0.049
250
0.087
200
Duplex
# Damaged
Appartment
150 Row House
Semi-Detached
Detached
100
0.750
50
0
4000
2000
1250
500
250
100
50
25
10
1
0.1
Frequency Cleaning Floors & Walls Doors Kitchen Installations interior
-Especially for higher EPs, damage to infrastructure is major damage component
-Interior damage contributes 75% to total damages to housing
-Majority of inundated houses are row houses
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22. FLOODRESILIENCE
RESILIENT PLANNING AND BUILDING: Damage model
INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE (what?)
-Impacts of climate change are substatial, yet relatively gradual in progression
-Levels?
-Trend shift?
175
150
125
expected Damage [m€]
100
75
50
25
0
10 100 1000 10000
return period [Y]
Current 2050 G+ 2100 Veerman 2050 Lockable/Open 2100 Lockable/Open
Aggregate Flood Damage for scenarios FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
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23. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3: From Damage model to Decision Support
REDUCING FLOOD IMPACTS ACROSS SCALES:
-Assessment of damage differentiation provides foundation for mixed-strategy
-Bottom-up: Implementation of various dry-proof, wet-proof solutions
-Top-down: Implementation of levee systems, combined with elevated infrastructure
Housing-level
Hamburg, Germany Dura Vermeer, (2004), Gouden Kust, Maasbommel, Netherlands. DuraVermeer, (2005), Drijvende Kas, Naaldwijk, Netherlands
spill-over effects
Urban-level
Dura Vermeer, (2004), Impression Flood Resilient Neighborhood
spill-over effects
Catchment-level FLOODRESILIENCEGROUP
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24. FLOODRESILIENCE
WP3: From Damage model to Decision Support
WHAT ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NON-STRUCTURAL MEASURES:
-Compensation measures
-Flood insurance
MOTIVATION:
-Differentiated ‘Risk Landscape’ (spatial, temporal, functional)
-Overall impact relatively low
-Yet, higher impact levels excpected in future
-Stadwerven pilot
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Artist Impression Pilot Flood Proof Building
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