Energy and global climate change

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ENERGY AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Fernando Alcoforado
Abstract: This paper aims to demonstrate the need for replacement of current energy development model to one
based on renewable energy sources and present what and how to implement a sustainable energy system capable of
preventing catastrophic climate change on Earth.
Resumo: Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar a necessidade de substituição do modelo de desenvolvimento
energético atual por outro baseado em fontes de energia renováveis e apresentar o que e como fazer para implantar
um sistema sustentável de energia capaz de evitar a mudança climática catastrófica no planeta Terra.
Keywords: Global warming. Renewable energy.
Palavras-chave: Aquecimento global. Energia renovável.
1. INTRODUCTION
Energy is an essential input for humans and for economic and social development. One
can say that the most basic need of human beings is the search for energy to keep their
bodies functioning. This aspect, the attendance of physiological need, predominated in
human history until the discovery of human beings that could control energy forms
which would be useful as the fire, which represented an important milestone for
mankind to, with the use of thermal energy, be able to cook their food and heat. In the
early days of human history, the domestication of animals provided the mechanical
energy required for transportation, agriculture, etc. A few millennia, the hydraulic
power of the rivers and the wind began to be used. However, only with the advent of the
Industrial Revolution, about three centuries, it is that the use and production of energy
have taken fundamental connotation in replacing humans and animals by machines.
Since the domain of fire 750,000 years ago until the advent of the Industrial Revolution
there was no major evolution in human form using energy. But with the Industrial
Revolution that took place in England in 1786 and the subsequent process of
industrialization, the need for increased power and new primary sources with higher

Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).

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energy density, were introduced. The use of coal as an energy source marked the end of
the era of renewable energy represented by the use of wood and the insufficient
hydraulic and wind farms, to begin the non-renewable energy era, the era of fossil fuels.
The use of electricity and the invention of electrical machinery in the nineteenth
century, along with the introduction of automotive vehicles, laid the foundation for the
introduction of modern consumer society, characterized by energy intensity
unprecedented in human history.
With the advance of industrialization, it was necessary new fuels with most energetic
power, being oil the fuel that had these properties. It began thus a new phase of
utilization of liquid fuels that endures to this day. More recently, after the Second World
War, nuclear power seemed a promising alternative for the generation of electricity, but
suffered a major setback due to the nuclear accident at Chernobyl in 1986 in Ukraine
and Fukushima in Japan recently.
There is no doubt that human activities on Earth cause changes in the environment in
which we live. Many of these environmental impacts are from the generation, handling
and use of energy. The main reason for the existence of environmental impacts from the
generation, handling and use of energy lies in the fact that the global consumption of
primary energy from non-renewable sources (oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear) accounts
for approximately 88% of total, leaving only 12% to renewable sources. This huge
dependence on non-renewable energy sources has led, in addition to ongoing concern
about the possibility of depletion of these sources, the emission of large amounts of
carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, which in 2013 was of 36.3 billion tons,
approximately 3.9 times the amount emitted in 1960 (9.3 billion tons).
As a result of the excessive use of fossil fuels, the carbon dioxide content in the
atmosphere has been increasing steadily, leading many experts to believe that the
increase in average temperature of the Earth's biosphere, which is being observed
decades ago, is due to an "Greenhouse Effect" caused by this increase of CO2 and other
gases in the atmosphere, as generically called "greenhouse gases". To avoid the
catastrophic future that portends for the humanity resulting of global warming, it is a
must, among other measures, to reduce global carbon emissions by promoting changes
in current global energy mix based mainly on fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), on
the other structured based on renewable energy resources (hydroelectricity, biomass and
the solar and wind energy sources) to avoid or minimize global warming and hence the
occurrence of catastrophic changes in Earth's climate.
2. GLOBAL WARMING AND CONSEQUENTIAL CATASTROPHIC
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global warming, which was a matter of exclusive interest of the scientific community,
assumes today a much broader dimension being a matter of concern by the world's
people and governments around the world. The media has contributed enough to the
issue of global warming becomes an issue of general interest to publicize the extreme
climate change that has been recorded since the Industrial Revolution in England to this

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day in various parts of the world as well as the opinion of many scientists and
institutions attesting to the severity of the problem.
Global warming is a climatic phenomenon to a large extent - an increase in the average
temperature of the Earth's surface that has been going on for the past 150 years. The
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), established by the UN (United
Nations), says that much of the observed warming on the planet is due most probably to
an increase in greenhouse and there is strong evidence that global warming is due to
human activities. Many meteorologists and climatologists consider proven that human
action is actually influencing the occurrence of the phenomenon.
Analysis of Figure 1 reveals that Earth receives radiation emitted by Sun that is
absorbed by the Earth's surface warming it. Much of this radiation is returned to the
space and the other part is absorbed by the gas layer surrounding atmosphere causing
the greenhouse effect.
Figure 1- Greenhouse Effect
Source: The Greenhouse Effect - www.ib.bioninja.com.au
Global warming results from the greenhouse effect caused by heat retention in Earth's
low atmosphere caused by the concentration of gases of various kinds. Earth receives
radiation emitted by Sun that is absorbed by the Earth's surface warming it. Much of
this radiation is returned to the space and the other part is absorbed by the gas layer
surrounding atmosphere causing the greenhouse effect. It is due to this natural
phenomenon, the greenhouse effect, we have an average temperature of Earth at 15 °C.
Without this phenomenon, the average temperature of the planet would be -18 °C.

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To be climate balance, the Earth must receive the same amount of energy that sends
back into space. If imbalance occurs for some reason, the globe warms or cools until the
temperature reached again, the exact measure for correct heat exchange. The natural
climatic balance was disrupted by the Industrial Revolution in England in 1786. Since
the nineteenth century, carbon dioxide concentrations in the air increased by 30%,
doubled the methane and nitrous oxide have risen 15%. Global warming is produced by
human activity (anthropogenic) on the planet and also by natural processes such as
decomposition of organic matter and volcanic eruptions, which produce ten times more
gas than man. For ages, the natural processes alone ensured the maintenance of the
greenhouse effect, without which life would not be possible on Earth. The gases
responsible for the global warming derived from human activity are produced by fossil
fuels used in cars, industries and power plants, for agricultural production and the
burning in forests (ALCOFORADO, 2010).
The main evidence for global warming comes from the temperature measurements in
weather stations around the globe since 1860. The data below in Figure 2 show that the
average temperature increase was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the twentieth century.
Figure 2- Increase of average global temperatures
Source: www.cheaperpetrolparty.com.
The largest increases were in two periods: 1910-1945 and 1976 to 2000. From 1945 to
1976 there was stabilization in the growth temperature that caused temporarily scientific
community was suspected that there is a slowdown in global temperature.

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Figure 3 shows the temperature variations in the Earth's surface from 1000 to 2000 and
its projections up to 2100. The figures for the year 1000 to 1860 were estimated and the
1860 to 2000 were based on global observations by instruments.
Figure 3- Changes in temperature on the surface of the Earth: 1000 2100
Source: IPCC, Synthesis Report, figure SPM-10b
Due to global warming, it is likely that future climatic imbalances are abrupt and
catastrophic. There will be a rapid and destructive increase in global temperatures
unless carbon emissions are cut. If current trends continue, between 2020 and 2070, the
concentration of greenhouse gases could double and the average surface temperature of

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the Earth could rise by about 4-5 °C. It is estimated that kept the current rate of increase
in emissions of greenhouse gases, the planet's average temperature should rise from the
current 15 °C to 16.5 °C at best, and 19.5 °C in the worst assumptions in the year 2025.
In the year 2100, the global average temperature will reach 18 °C, at best, and 29 °C at
worst. The most likely value for the average global temperature by the end of the 21st
century would be 19 °C (ALCOFORADO, 2010).
All indications are that sea levels may rise due to the increase in global temperature.
There may be the melting of ice sheets deposited in the polar caps and the summits of
the great mountain ranges. By 2050, sea levels may rise to 1.17 meters, in the year 2075
to 2.12 meters and in 2100 to 3.45 meters disappearing large tracts of coastal lands,
islands and coastal cities. A greater number of hurricanes would occur with increasing
of global temperature. Some scientists are concerned that in the future, the polar ice cap
and glaciers melt significantly. If this happens, there may be an increase in water levels
in many meters. Galileo magazine, no. 170, June 2006, published the text under the title
Global warming and the economy in which informs that the ice sheet of Antarctica
disappear would be a catastrophe because the region has ice enough to get the level
global seas rise by more than 65 meters (ALCOFORADO, 2010).
Taking into account the findings of numerous studies related to global warming, if
nothing is done to reverse their current trends, its consequences are as follows:
• 2 to 4.5 °C is the track lifting who must suffer the overall average temperature until
the end of XXI century.
• The polar ice caps may disappear completely within 100 years.
• There may be decreased ice cover at the poles and in mountain ranges, rising sea
levels submerging islands and coastal cities and changes in weather patterns that
may influence not only human activities but also ecosystems.
• 40% of the trees in the Amazon could disappear before the end of the century if
temperatures rise 2-3 °C.
• Tropical forests will be replaced by savannas in regions where there is a reduction
of groundwater.
• Scientists estimate that, when we get to 2050, millions of people living in river
deltas will be removed due to flooding, if the current pace of warming.
• The weather will be cooler just in the northern hemisphere. For the rest of the world
average temperature will rise and droughts and rainfall patterns will change around
the world.
• Global warming and also other damage to the environment are causing natural
selection go a rate 50 times faster than recorded 100 years ago.
• From 9 to 58% of species on land and at sea will be extinct in the next few decades
under different assumptions.
• Increasing global temperature change allows an ecosystem, some species may be
forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changes in conditions
while others may spread, invading other ecosystems.

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• About 20% to 30% of all species face a "high risk of extinction" if global average
temperature rising more 1.5 and 2.5 °C compared to 1990 levels This may happen
by 2050.
• The greenhouse effect will help to reduce the rainfall in some areas of the planet
causing those occurring higher temperatures and increased evaporation.
• Rains are expected to increase by about 20% in the higher latitudes.
• Several areas of the Earth may become flooded because of the overabundance of
rainfall, resulting in extensive flooding.
• 2,000 square kilometers will become desert due to lack of rain.
• The river flows may decrease by 50% or more that can some of them dry
completely.
• Important groundwater could be severely reduced, causing the irrigation wells to
dry.
• Excess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is making the oceans more acidic. This
weakens the corals, sea nurseries, and the plankton, the basis of the underwater
food chain.
• Coral reefs are likely to suffer sharp declines.
• The salt mangroves and Pantanal forests may disappear with rising sea levels.
• Migratory birds and mammals will suffer as vegetation zones change in the Arctic.
• The Arctic due to higher heating relative, small island states in the Pacific with
rising sea levels, the area at south of the Sahara Africa due to drought and the deltas
of rivers densely villages in Asia because of floods will suffer enough with climate
change.
In recent times, especially during the course of the Rio + 20 sustainable development
UN-sponsored Conference, there were numerous attacks on the global warming thesis
and its effects on the climate defended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) by questioning their reports produced with the participation of 2,500
scientists from 131 countries, bringing together observations, conclusions, forecasts and
recommendations of several thousand climate scientists from around the world. What
we are witnessing today is a real media war over the issue of catastrophic climate
change and its relation to the predatory human activities such as the emission of
greenhouse gases.
Sabotage science has become a routine component of the moment in which we live.
Hire mercenaries of science is a practice of large corporations responsible for the use of
fossil fuels to disqualify the evidence of global warming. The mission of skeptics and
pseudo scientists artificially is inflate the uncertainties associated with scientific
evidence, preventing or delaying so any measure to protect the environment of serious
consequences for humanity. All sciences are vulnerable to this type of attack, since
dealing with uncertainty is its intrinsic character. Any study is subject to criticism,
legitimate or not. The strategy adopted to weaken even the most robust scientific
conclusions is simple, just highlight selectively the uncertainties, by attacking the key

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studies one by one and, most importantly, systematically ignoring the weight of their
evidence.
In contrast to the views of skeptics and pseudo scientists, more than 255 members
scientists of the US Academy of Sciences defended the theory of climate change in an
article published on May 6, 2010, in the Science revue. In an article entitled As
Mudanças Climáticas e a Integridade da Ciência (The Climate Change and Science
Integrity), 255 scientists claim that "there are consistent evidence that humans are
changing the climate in a way that threatens our societies" [See Article EUA: cientistas
defendem existência das mudanças climáticas (US: scientists argue existence of climate
change) published on the website
<http://noticias.terra.com.br/ciencia/noticias/0,,OI4419952-EI238,00-
EUA+cientistas+defendem+existencia+das+mudancas+climaticas.html> and Article
Climate Change and the Integrity of Science published on the website
<http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5979/689.full.pdf?sid=967ede4e-da58-4209-
be61-4523bca2cca3>].
The Science revue text also condemns the attacks by so-called "climate skeptics" in
relation to the experts and institutions who warn both the existence, and for the possible
effects of global warming. The researchers say that many of the attacks have been
boosted by specific interests of large corporations or dogma, not by honest effort to
provide an alternative theory. According to the article, the increase in temperature of the
planet is due to the higher concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which
in turn are caused by human activities. At the conclusion of the article, the
climatologists said humanity has two options: Omit the scientific data and rely on luck
or act quickly to reduce the threat of climate change.
It should be noted that the controversy over climate change is established among
scientists who support the theory that global warming results from natural causes and
those who argue that it results from human activities. This is a matter that is still under
debate in the scientific community, although many meteorologists and climatologists
recently stated publicly that they consider proven that human action has really
influenced the evolution of this phenomenon. Most of the scientific community defends
the thesis that global warming is man's responsibility. The paradigm of natural causes of
climate change is being put into question by the new paradigm that assigns greater
responsibility to the man.
3. ENERGY SCENARIOS IN THE WORLD
3.1- The global energy scenarios and greenhouse effect
The contributions of the different sources of energy worldwide recorded in 1990 and its
projections for 2010 and 2020 are presented in Table 1 whose analysis reveals that if the
projections are confirmed for 2030, fossil fuels will have 80% of participation in global
energy falling just 2% compared to 2010. The participation of renewable and nuclear

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energy sources in 2030 in the global energy mix will suffer virtually no changes
compared to 1990 and 2010.
Table 1: Participation of Energy Sources in the World-1990/2010/2030
Source of energy Participation (%)
1990 2010 2030
Oil 38 34 32
Coal 24 26 22
Natural Gas 20 22 26
Nuclear 5,5 6 7
Biomass 10 9 8
Other renewable 0,5 1 3
Source: Costamilan, Luiz, Futuro da Energia no Mundo.
www.ibp.org.br/services/.../FileDownload.EZTSvc.asp?...2848.
Energy demand in the world will increase 35% in the period between 2010 and 2040.
Increasing global energy demand will be driven by population growth that is expected
to reach around 9 billion by 2040 (currently the world's population is 7 billion
inhabitants) and the doubling of the global economy taking into account the annual
growth rate of about 3% in much of the developing world [See article Matriz energética
continua em evolução (Energy matrix continues evolving) available on the website
<http://ate2050.blogspot.com.br/2014/03/demanda-por-energia-no-mundo-
crescera.html>].
This article Matriz energética continua em evolução (Energy matrix continues evolving)
also shows that natural gas will be the energy source that will grow more in the world.
Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase about 65% between 2010 and
2040. According to projections, natural gas is expected to exceed, in 2025, coal as the
second largest source of energy, surpassed only by oil. This article also shows that
around 65% of the growth in the supply of gas will come from unconventional sources
such as shale gas, which will account for a third of world production in 2040. The
United States will lead the production unconventional gas, accounting for more than
half of the expansion between 2010 and 2040. According to the survey, demand for oil
will grow about 25% in this period.
Liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel remain as the main energy choice for
the majority of transport by offering a unique combination of affordability, availability,
portability and high energy density. Nuclear power may also have solid growth, led by
Asia-Pacific region, where it is expected that production passes of 3% in 2010 to almost
9% in 2040. Renewable energy sources, including traditional as biomass, hydro and

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geothermal as well as wind, solar and biofuels will grow about 60%. Wind, solar and
biofuels will probably compose about 4% of energy supply by 2040, surpassing the 1%
recorded in 2010.
Energy sources used for electricity generation will continue to be the major components
of global demand and is expected to grow by more than 50% by 2040. The increase
reflects the expected increase of 90% in electricity use, led by developing countries
where 1.3 billion people currently lack access to electricity. In the case of coal, the
assessment is that demand will continue to grow until 2025, and then pass to fall. This
will occur by the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), as well as China. Thus, it is
estimated that the coal share in the energy matrix pass approximately 26% in 2010 to
22% in 2030.
The main greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and its main sources of emissions are as
follows:
Table 2 - The contribution of greenhouse gases to global warming
Gas Main sources Contribution to global warming
(%)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) Burning of fossil fuels (~ 77%) and
deforestation (~ 23%)
55
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and
related gases (HFCs y HCFC)
Various industrial uses:
refrigeration, foam products,
solvents
24
Methane (CH4) Rice paddies, enteric fermentation
and gas leakage
15
Nitrous oxide (N2O) Biomass burning, fertilizer use and
burning of fossil fuels
6
Source: IPCC, Working Group 1 report, Policymakers’ summary. p. 6
The Table 1 analysis reveals that the oil and coal are and continue to be the main energy
sources used in the world, and the Table 2 leads to the conclusion that carbon dioxide
(CO2) and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the main contributors to greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere. According to the IEA (International Energy Agency), global emissions
of carbon from burning fossil fuels, which in 1973 amounted to 16.2 billion tons a year
of CO2, reached 22.7 billion tons per year in 1998. If the supply projections of the IEA
energy are confirmed, the amount of carbon emissions is expected to increase reaching
27.5 and 32.8 tons of CO2 in 2010 and 2020, respectively.
From 1880 to 1980 the contribution of different greenhouse gases to affect the overall
environment is shown in the following Table 3:

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Table 3 - The greenhouse gases and its contribution from 1880 to 1980
Gas Contribuição (%)
Carbon dioxide 66
Methane 15
CFC-11 and CFC-12 8
Nitrous Oxide 3
Several 8
Source: Lashof, D.A. & Tirpak, D.A.orgs. Policy options for stabilizing global climate, Washington, DC,
Environmental Protection Agency, 1989.
The main factors contributing to the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere are shown in
the Table 4:
Table 4 - Main causes of the greenhouse effect
Causative factors of greenhouse effect Contribution (%)
Energy use and production 57
CFC 17
Agricultural practices 14
Deforestation 9
Other industrial activities 3
Source: Lashof, D.A. & Tirpak, D.A., n.2
The Table 4 analysis reveals that the use and energy production are the most responsible
for the greenhouse effect. If it remains on the current rate of increase in emissions of
greenhouse gases, the average temperature of the planet will be raised from the current
15 °C to 16.5 °C at best, and 19.5 °C at worst in years 2025. In the year 2100, the global
average temperature will reach 18 °C, at best, and 29 °C at worst. The most likely value
for the average global temperature by the end of the 21st century would be 19 °C (Veja
Magazine Online, Aquecimento Global (Global Warming).
<http://veja.abril.com.br/idade/exclusivo/aquecimento_global/> and LARARA, Dakir
Aquecimento Global e Mudanças Climáticas (Global Warming and Climate Change).
ULBRA Geography Course -.. Canoes, <http://www.educacional.com.br>).
Due to global warming, it is likely that future climatic imbalances will be abrupt and
catastrophic. There will be a rapid and destructive increase in global temperatures
unless carbon emissions are cut. If current trends continue, between 2020 and 2070, the

12
concentration of greenhouse gases could double and the average surface temperature of
the Earth could rise by about 4 °C.
With the reduction in rainfall, the occurrence of higher temperatures and increased
evaporation, river flows and groundwater can reduce by 50% or more and even dry
compromising the water supply of the population and irrigation in agriculture. Other
areas will be flooded by excessive rainfall. The sea level will rise due to the increase in
global temperature. There may be the melting of ice sheets deposited in the polar caps
and the summits of the great mountain ranges. By 2050, sea levels may rise to 1.17
meters, in the year 2075 to 2.12 meters and in 2100 to 3.45 meters disappearing large
tracts of coastal lands, islands and coastal cities. A greater number of hurricanes would
occur with increasing global temperature (ALCOFORADO, 2010).
Recent study by the International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that, by 2030, the
world will be making use of 88.5% more energy compared to that recorded in 1990 and
that most of it will be provided by coal, oil and for natural gas (See the publication
World Energy Demand and Supply of IAEA- International Atomic Energy Agency on
the website <www.iaea.org/nuclearenergy /.../ 04_Rogner_World>). This is the energy
scenario of reference for the next 16 years if the current world energy matrix is
maintained. This is therefore the scenario that reveals for the planet's future if it remains
on the current development model of society based on excessive consumption of fossil
fuels.
3.2 Oil and its environmental impact
Man promoted economic development since the Industrial Revolution in England based
on the exploitation of fossil fuels. The exploitation of oil contributed to the expansion of
productive activity, not only as fuel and as raw material for hundreds of products, but in
return, created huge environmental problems.
Globally, fossil fuels (oil and coal), especially oil, are responsible for 77% of carbon
dioxide emissions into the atmosphere contributing significantly to global warming that,
it predicts, could lead the planet to a climate scenario catastrophic from the coming
decades. The use of fossil fuels in agriculture and livestock, industry, transport,
households and trade and energy production in thermal power plants are the main
villains of global warming, beyond deforestation.
In the exploration and transport of oil, accidents are constant. The news of the press
have reported quite often a large number of them on land or at sea, such as the accident
that occurred in 2010 in one of the oil exploration platforms of BP (British Petroleum)
in the Gulf of Mexico. In every accident, life is the one that is affected. Biodiversity
suffers from leaks and fires that pollute the land, air and water interfering with the food
chain, reproduction and the very maintenance of living beings.
The fire of an oil exploration platform of BP in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of the
United States, caused a huge leak that reached 780 million liters of oil leaked into the

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sea 80 kilometers off the coast of the US state of Louisiana. An environmental
catastrophe of large proportions killed, of course, by interfering in the food chain, a
large number of animals.
Although the BP (British Petroleum) has announced the successful first phase of the
operation "static kill" designed to close the oil well damaged with a sludge injection and
then cement, the controversy continued, in the United States, about the ecological long-
term consequences of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. In the center of the criticisms
are the dispersant products used by BP massively. According to some researchers in the
US, the mixture of dispersants and oil would, at high doses, most harmful for
ecosystems than the crude oil itself.
Similarly is questionable the decision from the Brazilian government to explore oil
located in the pre-salt layer between Sao Paulo and Espirito Santo because Brazil to
stand against the fight against global warming. Another question came into being is that
if Petrobras is sufficiently prepared to face situations similar to what happened with the
British Petroleum in the Gulf of Mexico. It should be noted that the oil exploration in
the pre-salt layer in Brazil should occur at a depth which is more than twice the BP
platform which would make much more complex spill containment operation.
The oil producing companies are therefore against the fight against global warming
because fossil fuels, which account today for 82% of global energy, should have
reduced its participation in 34% matrix in 2010 to 15% 2030 to avoid catastrophic
climate scenario on planet Earth (WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE. World Energy
Consumption and CO2 Emissions in 1989 and 2030). This means that the world energy
matrix should include use in larger-scale renewable energy sources (solar, wind,
biomass, etc.). In this case, we would have to quadruple the use of renewable energy,
halving the use of oil and 10% coal use over the current situation. We should maintain
the current level of use of natural gas is the least polluting fossil fuels and nuclear
energy should be used only as a last resort because of the risks that represent their use.
The most common and obvious environmental impacts are oil leaks. What is known is
that risks are inherent in all activities related to oil from the well to the post. It is wrong,
however, who believes that spills are the only source of risks and negative impacts
arising from the exploration and production of oil at sea. After 45 days, a drilled well
already represents a phase of acute impacts on fauna and flora. Drilling fluids, saturated
gravels with different substances and toxic compounds including heavy metals such as
mercury, cadmium, zinc and copper are discarded. At the stage of refining, there is the
problem of the disposal of liquid waste, the emission of toxic gases and vapors to the
atmosphere, in addition to solid waste, usually stored in landfills.
The impacts produced by the oil spill in the water are more visible as occurred in the BP
platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Pollution experts emphasize that accidents leave marks
for twenty years or more and that recovery is always very long and difficult, even with
human help. Contact with crude oil cause very serious effects especially in plants and
animals. The oil covers the feathers and the animal, suffocates fish, kills plankton and

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small crustaceans, algae and plants on the seafront. In the mangroves, oil kills the plant
covering its roots, preventing its nutrition. Furthermore, the low speed of the water and
vegetable entangled in these locations makes difficult the cleaning work. Oil is
insoluble in water and has a mixed corrosive poison with effects difficult to combat.
3.3- The revolution of shale gas in the United States, the threat to global oil
industry and its environmental impact
Over the past decade, the United States became leaders in the production of shale gas,
thanks to new innovative extraction techniques. It is observed that the shale is a source
of fuel, when subjected to high temperatures, produces oil with similar composition to
the oil which is extracted naphtha, fuel oil, LPG, diesel and gasoline. The natural gas
trapped in shale formations, whose acquisition before it was too difficult and very
expensive, now can be obtained through the underground drilling method by hydraulic
fracturing (fracking) developed in the 1990s with the use of a mixture of water, sand
and chemicals to pierce the layers of shale and extract natural gas from the pores of
rocks [See the article A revolução do gás de xisto nos EUA: passado e futuro (The shale
gas revolution in the US: past and future) published on the website <http:
//www.wharton.
universia.net/index.cfm?fa=viewArticle&id=2256&language=portuguese> and
ALCOFORADO, Fernando. Impactos da revolução energética dos Estados Unidos
sobre a indústria de petróleo, a geopolítica, o meio ambiente, o pré-sal no Brasil e as
energias renováveis (Impacts of the energy revolution in the United States on the oil
industry, geopolitics, the environment, the pre-salt in Brazil and renewable energies)
published on the website <http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net>].
With the use of fracking, US companies triggered an energy revolution in shale gas
segment. The American production of this gas rose from virtually zero in 2000 to a
level that contributes with ¼ of US natural gas and should reach half of the total natural
gas in the country by 2030, according to data from the Institute of Public Policy James
A. Baker Rice University in Houston, Texas. Owner of the second largest reserves in
the world after China according to EIA (Energy Information Administration), the
United States, now hold a vast new source of energy that could help the country to
reduce its dependence on imported oil.
The recent Belfer Center report, based on data from Harvard, entitled Oil: The Next
Revolution, suggests that shale oil production may reach approximately 6 million
barrels per day in the United States by 2020. Considering the US potential of oil
production for conventional platforms and deepwater, this would suggest that by 2020,
the US could be close to achieving its energy independence from oil (See the website
<http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication /22144/oil.html>). The greatest
geopolitical impact of shale extraction technology lies less in the fact that the United
States will be more self-sufficient in energy terms and more in subsequent movement of
world oil markets due to the sharp reduction in imports, mainly from the Middle East.

15
This geopolitical impact will be further enhanced by the development of shale oil
reserves in China, Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine and other countries, which will put
additional pressure on world oil prices that will tend to fall. Incentives for the
development of oil and natural shale gas are very large. Europe will also benefit from
shale revolution, as oil prices began to be pressed down. China, in turn, have even
greater incentives to develop shale gas because its recoverable reserves are larger than
those of the United States, amounting to 36 trillion cubic meters, and because it would
be protected much of a blocking effect by of the United States Navy that controls the
Pacific Ocean preventing that most of the Chinese oil arrives by means of tankers.
The price of oil has fallen to 30 dollars per barrel in 2015 instead of almost US$ 100
reached in recent years, thanks to shale gas revolution in the United States. It is
estimated that shale gas may be responsible for nearly half of US energy consumption
in 2050. Due to the fall in imports of the product by the US, there will be the fall of the
price of conventional oil worldwide. It will be a monumental shock. This would cause
the United States, which consumes one-fifth of the world's energy, avoid conflicts in
foreign policy, if they were less dependent on oil from the Persian Gulf countries,
Russia and Nigeria, for example [See the article Gás de xisto pode derrubar preço do
petróleo pela metade, diz estudo (Shale gas can bring down oil prices by half, says a
study) published on the website <http://www.portugues.rfi.fr/economia/20120927-
preco-do-petroleo-poderia-cair-pela-metade-gracas-exploracao-do-gas-de-xisto-diz-e>].
Geopolitically, the shale revolution may strengthen the United States and China
reducing or eliminating their energy dependence. At the same time, this revolution will
be potentially destabilizing to Russia and Saudi Arabia and other countries that rely on
oil exports. This could create destabilizing economic, political and social in those
countries with the emergence of social conflicts with unforeseeable consequences. The
shale gas exploration began in many countries, including Poland, Ukraine, Australia,
Britain and also in China. The UK will supply by 2032, for shale gas, a quarter of its
requirements for that type of fuel. Also emerged technologies that make it possible to
obtain shale oil. The Japan Petroleum Exploration Company, for example, was able to
obtain liquid shale fuels, which possibly will be the solution of the serious power
shortage problem in this country, which is also related to the refusal, in perspective, of
atomic energy in Japan [See Revolução de xisto muda economia mundial e a geopolítica
(Shale revolution changes the world economy and geopolitics) published on the website
<http://portuguese.ruvr.ru/2012_10_07/xisto-novo-combustivel-geopolitica/>].
It should be noted that the shale gas that consists mainly of methane, produces half the
carbon emissions generated by coal. However, hydraulic fracturing itself raises
environmental concerns such as, for example, the contamination of aquifers sheets, if
the tunnels are not properly aligned and chemicals used to keep open the pores of the
rock leak. The use of natural gas from shale has faced opponents in various parts of the
world claiming that the fracking method can poison underground water reserves and
even cause earthquakes. So far, the fracking was banned in France and Bulgaria,

16
suspended or voluntarily paralyzed in UK, South Africa, Quebec, parts of Germany and
Australia and convicted from northern Spain to New York.
The energy revolution in the United States based on the shale tends to develop in
various parts of the world in an attempt to various countries to free themselves from
dependence on imported oil, especially from Middle Eastern countries, critical region
from the geopolitical point of view on the possibility the outbreak of regional conflicts
that may trigger a new global conflict threatening the supply of this important energy
source. The development of shale gas production will impact heavily against the oil
industry forcing lower their prices and their profitability. In Brazil, there may be the
impracticability of oil production in pre-salt layer that would only be viable with the
price of oil above US$ 45 dollars. Fall of oil price impact negatively also on the
development of renewable energy sources that would become less competitive making
impossible its expansion that has been recorded around the world in recent years thanks
to the rise in oil prices oil. In short, the energy revolution with shale gas in the United
States impacts negatively on the industry and the oil producing countries, the
environment, the exploitation of pre-salt in Brazil and the development of renewable
energy sources.
It should be noted that the gradual decline in oil prices that are registered in recent years
to reach 30 dollars per barrel of Brent recently raises questions about the economy of
Russia and other oil producing countries that are dependent on its export earnings.
OPEC countries, which spent more than two years decreasing its production, thereby
offsetting the increases in crude oil production by countries outside OPEC, changed
their strategy and since September 2015 are increasing their production contributing to
the fall in the price of oil in order to render economically unviable the oil substitutes
such as shale. To this is added the US interest to achieve energy self-sufficiency with
the shale through the application of fracking technology and the fall in world
conventional oil demand.
One hypothesis that has been considered is that the US is behind the drop in oil prices to
affect the economies of enemy countries such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela. Due to the
decrease in oil prices, Russia is facing at the moment a violent speculative attack with
the country's capital flight which is resulting in a sharp drop in the purchasing power of
the Ruble. It can be said that, from a geopolitical point of view, most likely, the US does
not put pressure to increase conventional oil supply.
3.4- Nuclear power plants are no longer alternative to generating electricity after
the earthquake and tsunami in Japan
Besides leaving more than four thousand dead and thousands missing, the earthquake
and tsunami that hit Japan's northeastern coast caused problems in at least three nuclear
power plants. The most serious case is that of the Fukushima plant, operated by Tokyo
Electric Power Company, which is still trying to solve a radioactivity leak since the
earthquake struck. To prevent people from becoming contaminated, the Japanese
government removed the residents located within a radius of 30 km around the

17
Fukushima plant that will be insufficient because radiation has reached including Tokyo
situated 170 km.
The earthquake itself did not cause direct damage to Japanese nuclear plants because
they were built according to international safety standards. The nuclear reactor is within
a steel housing which receives heated water high temperature which generates steam,
drives turbine and produces electricity. The set of equipment that feed the reactor also is
inside a building with concrete walls up to one meter thick. Experts say that these plants
are prepared to support even the impact of a large aircraft.
Most of Japan is old plants using a water pumping system powered electrically for
cooling the nuclear reactor. This pumping system stopped its operation after the
earthquake and tsunami because the electricity transmission networks that fed it were
destroyed with the occurrence of the natural disaster. It is likely that there has been a
failure in the cooling system of the reactor Fukushima due the tsunami.
With failure of the refrigeration system, the reactor overheated and released radioactive
steam, raising the pressure inside the capsule. Thus, the reactor began to melt which
raised radiation levels a thousand times according to information from the International
Atomic Energy Agency. So there was the reactor overheating and subsequent explosion.
Uranium began to turn gas and some of it leaked. The various explosions that took place
in Fukushima resulted in radioactive release on the environment which is dangerous for
local people. In addition to the radiation area near the Fukushima plant there is a risk
that extends to the whole of Japan, and then across the globe.
It should be noted that Japan has 55 nuclear reactors operating in 17 plants distributed
across the country. Together, they generate 36% of all energy consumed by the
Japanese. The share of nuclear energy in energy supply around the world is 6.5% and
16% in electricity generation. In January 2009 there were 210 nuclear power plants
operating in 31 countries with a total of 438 reactors producing a total electrical output
of 372 GW. Today, the United States is the country with the largest number of nuclear
power plants totaling 104. This represents 18% of the energy matrix of the country.
France is at the top of the countries with the highest dependence on this type of energy
use in 80% of nuclear power in its energy matrix.
In Brazil, the use of nuclear energy does not reach 3% of what is consumed. The
electricity used in the world contemplates the use of various sources: 41% coal, 16%
hydro, 13% nuclear, 22% natural gas and 5% oil [VENTURA FILHO, Altino
Hidroeletricidade e Outras Energias Renováveis: A Situação Brasileira no Contexto
Internacional (Hydroelectricity and Other Renewable Energy: The Brazilian situation
in the International Context). Studies and surveys No. 444. Available on the website
<www.forumnacional.org.br/trf_arq.php?cod=EP04440>]. Despite the various
movements in national and global scale aiming to stop the construction of nuclear
power plants in the world there are still 36 plants under construction in 14 different
countries, showing that these plants will be also responsible for much of the electricity
generated in the world.

18
It should be noted that nuclear energy transformation into electricity can happen in a
controlled nuclear reactor by nuclear fission of uranium as the main civilian application
of nuclear energy. The main advantage of nuclear energy generated by fission is that it
enables the non-use of fossil fuels like oil and coal in power generation now being
defended by some environmentalists because they do not generate greenhouse gases.
These ecologists advocate a radical turn toward nuclear energy as a way to combat
global warming.
Compared to hydroelectric generation, the use of nuclear energy has the advantage of
not requiring the flooding of large areas for the formation of reservoir lakes, thus
avoiding the loss of areas of nature reserves or agricultural land, as well as removing
whole communities from areas that are flooded. However, nuclear power plants have
the disadvantage related to the disposal of their waste (nuclear waste) not resolved once
until today and with the inability to prevent accidents such as those that occurred at
Chernobyl and Fukushima that occurring assume catastrophic proportions.
As an example, Chernobyl radioactively contaminated an area of approximately
150,000 square kilometers, of which 4,300 km² have access restricted indefinitely. Up
to 180 km distant from the reactor are located in areas with a contamination of more
than 1.5 million Becquerel per square kilometer, leaving them uninhabitable for
thousands of years. Most likely, the Fukushima accident in Japan will be more
catastrophic than it was the Chernobyl considering radioactive leak be much higher and
be unchecked which highlights the need to ban the use of nuclear power to generate
electricity.
3.5- The world's energy system required to combat global warming
Regardless of the various solutions that may be adopted to eliminate or mitigate the
causes of global warming, the most important is undoubtedly the adoption of measures
to contribute to the elimination or reduction of the consumption of fossil fuels in energy
production as well as for their more efficient use in transport, industry, agriculture and
urban areas (residential and commercial), given the use and production of energy
account for 57% of greenhouse gases emitted by human activity. In this sense, the
implementation of a sustainable energy system is essential.
It seems that, if kept the current trend of consumption, the share of fossil fuels (oil, coal
and natural gas) on the global energy matrix, it will reach 80% by 2030. Oil has a
dominant position among the energy sources used. Oil, coal and natural gas are, in
order, the sources of energy most commonly used today in the global final energy
consumption. The industrialized OECD countries are the biggest consumers of energy
followed by China, Russia and Asia. According to the International Energy Agency, oil
and coal are the most responsible for the emission of CO2 in the atmosphere whose
emitters are the industrialized countries of the OECD.
If the current trend continues, it is very likely that by the year 2020, the world will be
making use 75% more energy and that most of it will be provided by oil, coal, natural

19
gas and nuclear energy. At this time, the Persian Gulf should provide more than 2/3 of
the world's oil, while today this share is 26%. In addition, they will be implemented
over three times nuclear power plants over the next 30 years than those built in the last
30 years which will be accompanied by more frequent nuclear accidents and growing
increases in nuclear waste and plutonium. This is the energy scenario of reference for
the next 30 years, if the current world energy matrix is maintained. The largest share of
oil, coal and natural gas will result in higher CO2 emissions in the atmosphere of the
planet at the same rate of increase in the world supply of energy.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that "the world is moving towards a
sustainable energy future" if governments do not adopt "urgent measures" to optimize
the resources available [See the article AIE: mundo se encaminha para futuro
energético insustentável (IEA: world is moving toward unsustainable energy future),
published on website <http://g1.globo.com/mundo/noticia/2011/11/aie-diz-que-mundo-
se-encaminha-para-futuro-energetico-insustentavel.html>]. For the IEA, by 2035 would
require global investment of US$ 38 trillion in energy infrastructure - two-thirds in
countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) - to meet the growing demand, 90% to supply emerging countries like China
and India.
Climate models referenced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)
of the UN project that global surface temperature will probably rise in the interval 1.1
°C to 6.4 °C between 1990 and 2100 in the face of increasing levels of carbon dioxide
(CO2) and methane in the atmosphere. This scenario just does not happen if global CO2
and methane emissions are cut (See the website http://www.ipcc.ch). It seems that
powerful economic forces, environmental, political and social will push the world to a
different current energy system that must necessarily operate with much lower levels of
fossil fuels. Solar energy, geothermal energy, wind energy and biomass energy should
occupy more and more space in the global energy mix in the future.
The use of solar energy and other renewable energies will cause large scale changes
across the planet highlighting, among them, the creation of entirely new industries,
development of new transport systems and modification of agriculture and cities. The
great challenge for today is to continue the development of new technologies that
efficiently make use energy and economically using renewable resources. This is the
alternative energy scenario which can replace the reference scenario described in lines
behind avoiding thus compromising the global environment. This means that profound
changes in global energy policy should be put in place to reduce the consumption of
fossil fuels which account for 82% of global energy supplies.
3.6- The sustainable energy system for the world
Most people have little idea of what would be an energy system not based on fossil
fuels. Neither seems to recognize that an alternative approach is possible. It is very
possible that the natural gas pass to be the dominant fossil fuel in the future because it
produces twice as much energy per kilogram of carbon released. The largest known

20
natural gas reserves are in the Middle East and Russia that in the next 40 years, may be
producing as much energy as they currently do. Globally, the dynamism of the natural
gas consumption in the future can be explained by the following factors:
• Natural gas world proven reserves have grown significantly in recent years, making
it equivalent to oil. Today, these reserves would be enough to ensure consumption
at current levels for 66 years, while the oil reserves would be sufficient for 40 years
of consumption.
• Geographically, global natural gas reserves are better distributed than oil. While the
Middle East has 65% of world oil reserves, compared to natural gas has only 34%.
• Technological advances in natural gas transportation made possible technically and
economically the consumption of large volumes of gas, even when the production
sources have long distances from consumption centers.
• Increasing pressures by reducing environmental pollution, especially in large cities,
have been promoting the use of natural gas as an energy resource, since their
burning is less polluting than oil products.
• Energy security policies of the countries of the OECD (Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development) have pursued to reduce dependence on imported
oil, especially from the Middle East.
Certainly, nuclear energy is not a major source of energy in a truly sustainable energy
system. Over the past 10 years, the expansion of nuclear power plants has slowed,
dropping to its paralysis worldwide. All existing reactors are scheduled to exit activity
over the next 40 years and most of them will not be reset. This is due largely to the
accidents at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979, Chernobyl in the former
Soviet Union in 1986 and Fukushima in Japan in 2011 and the pressures of broad
sectors of society in many countries.
A sustainable energy system is only possible if energy efficiency is much improved.
Above all, the world would need to produce goods and services with one-third to half of
the energy we currently use. It has been find available technologies that quadruple the
efficiency of most lighting systems and would double of the new cars. Improvements in
electrical efficiency will reduce by 40-75% the need for energy. Heating demand and
cooling buildings can be cut to an even smaller fraction of current levels thanks to
heating equipment and more refined air conditioners (ALCOFORADO, 2010).
Quadruple the renewable energy production is also essential to obtain a sustainable
energy system in the future. That would require the use of biomass and hydroelectric
power, especially in high-potential countries such as Brazil. It requires also that solar,
wind and geothermal energy is part of the "mix" of energy in the world. The
technologies already available to find to begin this historic transition energy that will
only occur with fundamental changes in energy policy in most countries
(ALCOFORADO, 2010).

21
The first step is to redirect a large number of government policies so that they are
intended to achieve the core objectives of energy efficiency and reduce the use of fossil
fuels. For example: reward the purchase of efficient vehicles, encourage high-capacity
mass transport alternatives to replace the automobile, restructure the energy industries
and raising taxes on fossil fuels.
Biomass and hydroelectric power provide about 13% of world energy. The biomass
alone meets 35% of the needs of developing countries. It is likely that the direct
conversion of solar energy into electricity and heat is the cornerstone of a worldwide
system of sustainable energy. Sunlight not only finds available in large quantities as it is
also most widely distributed than any other energy source [ALCOFORADO, F. O
sistema mundial de energia sustentável (The global system of sustainable energy).
Revista Politécnica 10E, Year 4. Salvador. 2011).
Solar energy is well suited to provide heat in boiling point of the water temperature and
below it, which accounts for 30-50% of energy use in industrialized countries and even
more so in developing countries. In a few decades, power up will use the sun to heat
most of the necessary water and new buildings may take advantage of heating and
natural cooling to cut by more than 80% the energy they use. Using electricity and
directly burn fossil fuels to heat water will become rare in the coming decades
(ALCOFORADO, 2010).
Table 5 below shows the proposal of the Worldwatch Institute's as it should be the
world production of energy by the year 2030 to reduce CO2 emissions to the level
considered acceptable by 2.6 billion tons reducing them to half of the emissions
recorded in 1989. Analysis of Table 5 reveals that from 1989 to 2030, oil production
should be reduced by half and 90% of the coal, while renewable energy sources should
grow nearly 4 times. In 2030, renewable energy should be around 70% of total energy
production in the world. These are requirements for sustainable energy systems
worldwide.
Table 5 - World Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions in 1989 and 2030
Energy Source 1989 2030
Energy
(Mtoe)
CO2
(million ton.)
Energia
(Mtoe)
CO2
(million ton.)
Oil 3,098 2,393 1,500 1,160
Coal 2,231 2,396 240 430
Natural gas 1,707 975 1,750 1,000
Renewable 1,813 - 7,000 -
Nuclear 451 - 0 0
Total 9,300 5,764 10,490 2,590
Source: Worldwatch Institute. Consumo Mundial de Energia e Emissões de CO2 em 1989 e 2030.

22
To avoid the catastrophic scenario described lines back to the environment of the planet,
it must be drastically overhauled the current energy model. The alternative sustainable
energy system to the present shall, therefore, have the following characteristics:
• Must operate with much lower levels of fossil fuels and without nuclear power. The
use of coal would be reduced by 90%.
• Renewable energy (solar, wind and biomass) and geothermal energy should occupy
a growing presence in the global energy mix.
• It is necessary to develop major effort focused on energy efficiency because it is
unlikely that renewable energy will become cheaper than oil has been.
• Energy efficiency should be improved even more. The world will have to produce
goods and services with one-third to half of the energy we currently use.
• There are technologies that allow quadruple the efficiency of lighting systems and
double of the cars.
• Natural gas will be the dominant fossil fuel in the future because it produces twice
as much energy per kilogram of carbon released.
• To quadruple the renewable energy production is essential to achieve a sustainable
energy system in the future.
4. CONCLUSIONS ON THE ENERGY SYSTEM REQUIRED TO PREVENT
CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE
Based on the above in previous chapters, the main conclusions of the power system
required for the world from the perspective of sustainable development are:
1) To avoid the scenario of global catastrophic climate change, it is imperative to
reduce global carbon emissions by promoting, among other things, changes in the
current world energy model currently based on fossil fuels (coal and oil) and
nuclear, by other structured mainly based on renewable energy resources, hydro,
biomass and on wind and solar sources to avoid or minimize global warming and,
hence, the occurrence of catastrophic changes in the earth's atmosphere.
2) As presented in the previous chapters, to be achieved sustainability in the field of
energy is necessary the development of two key strategies: one, eradication of fossil
fuels in global energy matrix and replacing it with renewable energy sources; and
another of the energy saving in the cities and in the countryside, in buildings,
agriculture, industries and the general means of transport contributing, thereby, to
the reduction of global carbon emissions and hence the greenhouse effect.
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Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI. Curitiba: Editora CRV, 2015.

23
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24
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