CONCLUSIONS OF THE ROUNDTABLE ON GLOBAL WARMING AND PLANETARY CATASTROPHY HELD ON 22/09/2017 IN SALVADOR / BAHIA.

1. 1
CONCLUSIONS OF THE ROUNDTABLE ON GLOBAL WARMING AND
PLANETARY CATASTROPHY HELD ON 22/09/2017 IN SALVADOR / BAHIA
Fernando Alcoforado *
The Roundtable on Global Warming and Planetary Catastrophe held in Salvador on
September 22, 2017 under the patronage of the IGHB - Geographic and Historical
Institute of Bahia and ABROL - Brazilian Academy of Letters of Rotary (Bahia
Section) was started with our presentation of the conclusions of our book Aquecimento
Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Global Warming and Planetary Catastrophe) published
in 2010 whose data and conclusions have been enriched with more recent data presented
by myself and also by the competent invited debaters Engo. Durval Olivieri and Engo.
Osvaldo Soliano.
The book Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Global Warming and Planetary
Catastrophe) shows the results of the studies developed by the IPCC-Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change that demonstrates that since the 1st Industrial Revolution in
1860 the greenhouse gases originating from human activities are the main responsible
for global warming that tends to make the average temperature of the planet Earth
evolve from the current 15 degrees centigrade to 20.8 degrees centigrade by the year
2100.
The IPCC shows that global warming results from the greenhouse effect caused by the
retention of heat in the Earth's atmosphere caused by the concentration of gases of
various types. The Earth receives radiation emitted by the Sun that is absorbed by the
Earth's surface by heating it. Much of this radiation is returned to space and the other
part is absorbed by the layer of gases that surrounds the atmosphere causing the
greenhouse effect. It is due to this natural phenomenon, the greenhouse effect, that we
have an average Earth temperature in the range of 15ºC. Without this phenomenon, the
average temperature of the Planet would be 18ºC negative.
To maintain the climate balance, the planet Earth needs to receive the same amount of
energy that it sends back into space. If unbalance occurs for some reason, the globe
warms or cools until the temperature reaches, once more, the exact measurement for the
correct heat exchange. Global warming is produced by human activity on the planet and
also by natural processes such as the decomposition of organic matter and volcanic
eruptions. For ages, natural processes have guaranteed the maintenance of the
greenhouse effect alone, without which life would not be possible on Earth.
According to the IPCC, the natural climate balance has been broken by human activity
since the nineteenth century with the First Industrial Revolution. From the 19th century,
concentrations of carbon dioxide in the air increased by 30%, methane concentrations
doubled, and nitrous oxide concentrations increased by 15%. The gases responsible for
global warming derived from human activity are produced by the fossil fuels used in
cars, in industries and in thermoelectric plants, by agricultural production and by forest
fires. Only CO2 accumulated in the atmosphere today totals 750 billion tons.
Evidence of global warming is, in summary, the following:
 11 of the last 12 years were the hottest recorded on the planet

2. 2
 Arctic temperature has doubled in the last 100 years
 Since 1978, every decade nearly 3% of the North Pole ice sheet has melted,
contributing to sea level rise
 Glacial mountains and glaciers have melted at record pace
 Even if humanity can limit global warming to only 2 degrees Celsius, future
generations will have to deal with sea level 12 to 22 meters higher than the current
 Rainfall levels have risen alarmingly in North and South America, northern Europe
and northern and central Asia
 Droughts have increased in the Sahel, Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of
southern Asia
 Since 1970, the incidence of typhoons and hurricanes in the North Atlantic
 Himalayan glaciers are melting, the islands of East India are getting underwater and
the country's deserts are being flooded by unusual rains.
If the current trend for greenhouse gas growth to continue between 2020 and 2070, the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could double and the average surface
temperature of the Earth could rise from 1.4 °C to 5.8 °C by the year 2100. Today
emissions are 8.8 billion tons of carbon (or 32.3 billion tons of CO2) per year. The
consequences of a constant increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will probably
be catastrophic if other moderating factors do not come into play. One such moderating
factor would be the absorption of excess carbon dioxide and heat from the oceans.
However, the absorption of carbon dioxide by the oceans is slow. In addition, the
oceans can only process 50% of man-made carbon dioxide.
One of the consequences of temperature rise is the thermal expansion of the ocean that
contributes to increase its volume and consequently the level of the seas. As a result of
the thermal expansion of the oceans, future generations will have to deal with sea level
12 to 22 meters higher than the current one, according to scientists at Rutgers University
in New Jersey. The world will experience the adverse effects of rising sea levels as the
ice caps at the poles continue to melt as a result of rising ocean temperatures. Sea ice in
the Arctic has declined dramatically in recent years. The ice shelves of Antarctica are
crumbling and breaking. Antarctica is the largest frozen mass with 90% of the Earth's
ice. Most of the ice is in Eastern Antarctica which is higher, colder and less prone to
melting. In Western Antarctica, some ice is in depressions vulnerable to melting. Data
from the European Space Agency indicate that the Antarctic continent has released 160
billion metric tons of ice per year from 2010 to 2013. If the current melting rate of ice
caps at the poles continues, large tracts of land along the coastline will disappear, along
with lowland islands and cities.
The greenhouse effect will contribute to reduce the atmospheric precipitation in some
areas of the planet causing in them to occur higher temperatures and greater
evaporation. In these circumstances, the flow of the rivers may decrease by 50% or
more and some of them may dry out completely. Important groundwater can be
seriously reduced, causing the irrigation wells to dry. On the other hand, other areas of
the globe may become flooded because of the overabundance of precipitation, resulting
in extensive flooding. More hurricanes will occur as global temperatures rise. Rising
global temperatures could drastically change the climate and change atmospheric
precipitation patterns around the world. This change may cause unusual humidity
conditions for certain regions and aridity for others.

3. 3
To stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, scientists believe that
global emissions must be reduced from the current 8.8 to 2 billion tons per year. In the
world, the main causes of greenhouse gases are energy use and production (57%), use of
chlorofluorocarbons in refrigeration (17%), agricultural practices (14%), deforestation
(9%) (3%). In Brazil, deforestation (75.4%), burning of fossil fuels (22%), industrial
processes (1.6%) and others (1%) are the main responsible for the greenhouse effect.
Irrespective of the various solutions that may be adopted to eliminate or mitigate the
causes of the greenhouse effect, such as the fight against deforestation, the adoption of
new agricultural practices, the most important is undoubtedly the change of the world
energy matrix with the adoption of measures to contribute to the elimination or
reduction of the consumption of fossil fuels in energy production, as well as to their
more efficient use in transport, industry, agriculture and cities (residences and
commerce), considering the use and energy sources responsible for 57% of the
greenhouse gases emitted by human activity.
To achieve this goal, it is essential to implement a sustainable energy system that
contributes to the production of clean energy. To have a sustainable energy system in
the world with the production of clean energy, it is necessary that by 2030 the
production of oil be halved and that of 90% coal, while renewable energy sources grow
almost 4 times to reduce emissions of carbon in half registered in 1989. By the year
2030, renewable energy should be around 70% of the total energy production of the
planet. These are the requirements of a sustainable energy system throughout the world.
In Brazil, the effort should be focused on combating deforestation, controlling industrial
pollution and replacing fossil fuels used to produce energy from renewable sources.
Humanity is faced with a temporal boundary that is not 2100, but much earlier, 2030!
This date is not arbitrary. In 2030, we will live on a planet that will have about 9 billion
inhabitants of which two-thirds living on a land saturated with pollution and waste
already affected by high temperature sensitivity. By 2030, we will be entering a phase
of shortage in relation to oil and strong tension over other fossil fuels, in a context of
reduced natural resources and impoverishment of arable land. The concentration of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that was 280 ppm (particles per million) by volume at
the beginning of the industrial era could reach values between 540 and 970 ppm in the
21st century. This increase in carbon dioxide concentration accounts for 70% of
ongoing global warming.
The world is facing a challenge that is not to allow global warming in the 21st century
higher than two degrees Celsius without which will have to cope with the catastrophic
consequences resulting from climate change. To prevent global warming from
exceeding 2 ° C, a radical decarbonisation of the world economy will be required. This
is a difficult task, but still possible. In this sense, the world needs to limit all carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions to one trillion tons. A global compromise aimed at limiting
global warming to 2 degrees Celsius was signed at the Paris Climate Conference, COP
21. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) studies recommend
reducing greenhouse gas emissions global warming from 60% to 70% by the middle of
this century.
To achieve the goals of COP 21 there will have to be a gigantic effort in every country
in the world to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Until October, countries

4. 4
have submitted proposals to cut emissions, known as INDCs (Nationally Determined
Intended Contributions). These objectives will only be achieved if policies are adopted
that contribute to: 1) reforming the energy and transport sectors; 2) promote the use of
renewable energy sources; 3) eliminate inappropriate financial and market mechanisms
for the purposes of the Convention; 4) limit greenhouse gas emissions in waste
management and energy systems; and, 5) protect forests and other carbon sinks.
For example, thermoelectric plants using fossil fuels should be replaced by renewable
energy sources (solar, wind and biomass) and, in the last instance, by nuclear power
plants and deforestation should be combated with adequate forest and the exemplary
punishment of deforesting. Replacement should be encouraged of diesel fuel used in
agriculture by biodiesel, the reduction of the size of the bovine population responsible
for the emission of methane into the atmosphere, the replacement of the fuel oil used by
the industry with the less polluting natural gas, the use of ethanol by automobiles
instead of gasoline and the production of electric cars instead of vehicles powered by
fossil fuels. The substitution of LPG used in households and in trade for the least
polluting natural gas should be promoted.
The emission of greenhouse gases resulting from the decomposition of waste can be
avoided with the use of methane produced in the landfills in the generation of electric
energy, as well as in the production of fertilizer. In the refineries, there should be an
effort to reduce the production of petroleum products in parallel to the adoption of
measures aimed at reducing its consumption. Refineries should be geared primarily to
the production of petroleum products of nobler or less polluting use. Therefore, in order
to eliminate or reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent catastrophic climate
change on our planet, it is urgent to reduce oil consumption by adopting policies aimed
at implementing programs that contribute to their substitution by other energy
resources.
In addition, it is essential to adopt energy policies aimed at implementing programs that
contribute to reducing oil consumption through energy saving actions. Energy-saving
policies would consist of: 1) producing steam and electricity in the industry with the use
of cogeneration systems; 2) to encourage automakers and trucks to increase the
efficiency of motor vehicles to reduce fuel consumption; 3) to expand rail and waterway
systems to transport freight instead of trucks; 4) to expand the collective transportation
system, especially high-capacity mass transport such as the subway or light rail vehicles
to reduce car use in cities; 5) restricting the use of automobiles in centers and other
areas of cities; 6) encourage the manufacture of machines and equipment of greater
efficiency to save energy and of electric vehicles; and 7) to use petroleum products
mainly for non-energy purposes, mainly as industrial raw materials.
Debaters and participants at the Round Table enriched the debate by proposing the
adoption of public policies that would contribute to restricting the emission of
greenhouse gases, the need to exercise birth control to avoid the population explosion
that fuels the consumption of natural resources and energy in general, the need to raise
public awareness about the threat posed by catastrophic climate change to the future of
humankind, as well as the celebration of a global social contract based on democratic
global governance that will contribute not only to avoiding the consequences of climate
change, but above all to building a world of peace and progress for all mankind. These
were, therefore, the conclusions of the roundtable

5. 5
* Fernando Alcoforado, 77, member of the Bahian Academy of Education and the Brazilian Academy of
Letters - Bahia Section, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the
University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business
planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of the books Globalização
(Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para
o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os Condicionantes de Desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia
(PhD Thesis, University of Barcelona, http: //www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003),
Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento da Bahia do
Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The
Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM
Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e
Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia
Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica,
Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico
e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática
Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas,
Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) e A Invenção de um novo
Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017). Possui blog na Internet (http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net). E-
mail: falcoforado@uol.com.br.