research conference presentation in project management

1. Maria Kapsali & Jens Roehrich
043-0183
Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to
measure contract rules in complex project operations

2. Abstract
How to use analytic induction and fuzzy-set Qualitative
Comparative Analysis (fsQCA)
To measure the effectiveness of contract rules in complex program
operations
fsQCA is useful to simultaneously explore deductively causal
complexity of variable configurations in complex operations and
exploit the richness of in-depth qualitative data

3. •
We seek causal pathways to the same outcome, which may be achieved
in different combinations of conditions, and that causation must be
understood in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions
•
Complex causal connections (causal complexity) are analysed using Boolean
logic to explain pathways to a particular outcome. Complex and multiple
patterns of causation may be explored
– statistical techniques assume that social phenomena are driven by unifinality,
additivity, and symmetry, therefore it is difficult to model equifinal,
conjunctural and asymmetric set relations in terms of sufficiency and necessity
(Fiss, 2007: 1190)
– qualitative (written and especially verbal) data formulations are largely set
theoretic in nature (Fiss, 2007; Ragin 1987, 2009) we need to study cases
inductively as configurations and not as independent, analytically separate
settings to acquire measurements from

4. Why fsQCA (2)
•
Qualitative comparative analysis has the advantage that it may not
require as many cases as a case survey.
comparative research designs involve small and intermediate-size Ns
(e.g., 5-50), but this range of cases is often too large for in-depth
case analysis to retain patterns (analysis becomes too complicated),
but also too few for conventional statistical techniques
•
It can be used with previously conducted studies as well as with new
studies, and thus encourages an evolutionary and integrative approach
to knowledge creation. It allows easy integration of both qualitative
and quantitative forms of evidence, and is transparent and systematic
•
‘fuzzy’ logic is a recent refinement of QCA so that it is not necessary to
dichotomise variables so precisely and allows for more variation in set
theoretic membership (continuous instead of binary)
•
Used in : sociology, psychology, political science and history

5. example
Research design
Research
Question
Which are the contract rules that successfully elicit
compliant behaviour in programs?
Methodology
Retroduction based on Critical Realism (Downward, 2008: 314)
Purpose
Measure the characteristics of a social phenomenon
Find generalized patterns of complex causality to develop
theory and assert plausible contextualized explanations
Instrumentation
Qualitative multiple case studies (N=23)
Data
120 in-depth, semi-structured interviews and 23 project
contracts/evaluation reports
Analysis
(configurational) analysis of multiple conjuctural causality
through fuzzy-set analysis (Ragin, 2008)

6. Contracting
theories
Type of
studies
Focus of studies
Result
Classical
deductive
modularity in contract structures
incomplete
Neo-Classical inductive
arbitration, collaboration
incomplete
Relational
trust, commitment, reputation,
networks, relational ties etc
incomplete
combinations of factors, both
modular and relational, into the
causal mechanisms between
rules and outcomes
?
inductive
Middle-way ? retroductive
Our aim: the middle way – systemic contract

7. High
level of complexity
in transactions
Diverse, autonomous
actors with mixed
interdependencies and
timings
Really unpredictable
relations
Mediation for conflict
Long- term diverse
relations
Relational networks,
trust, commitment
irrational incentives
Medium
Stable short- term
relations
Rational incentives
Easy prediction of
behaviour
Low
Classical contracts
Neo-classical + Relational contracts
Middle way contracts
‘our study’

8. Fuzzy-set qualitative analysis in multiple case studies
1. Contract rules
Classify rules
Identify conditions
and outcomes
Build an analytic
frame
2. Analysis
Anchors, and
thresholds
3. Interpretation of
configurations
4.Conclusion
Content analysis of
case studies to assign
values to conditions
and outcomes
Build truth table and
retrieve configurations
from the software
Explain causal
complexity between
the conditions
Look again into the
cases
(consistency and
coverage)
Compare and explain
the configurations
Suggest which are
the successful results
Select configurations
with the highest
significance (consistencycoverage)
Minimize configurations
Build a
conceptual
model

9. Classification of conditions – inductive approach for selecting
Amenta and Poulsen (1994) and Yamasaki and Rihoux (2009)
Linkage control rules to
prevent opportunism
Practical decision rules for
generating all possible control
responses
Emancipatory autonomy rules
formalization of action
accountability
rewards
incentives
obligations
penalties - punishment
exclusion
fragmentation in supply chain
standardization of tasks
communication at the interfaces
co-decision processes
formal meetings, boards, panels,
conferences
evaluation, feedback loops
overlap and sharing
complement of skills
negotiations regarding the
definition of the goal, planning,
monitoring and executing
participation of users
Rules that empower to selfregulate and self-organize
knowledge creation
coupling and interdependence
adjust processes and habits
leverage for change
The rules in the contracts categorized into three conditions (Smith, 2006)

10. The analytic frame (conditions and outcomes)
and with the fsQCA measure scale
Analytic frame
Conditions
Outcomes
Linkage rules
Compliant (1)
*
Mostly compliant (0.75)
Practical rules
Ambiguous (0.50)
*
Insufficiently compliant (0.25)
Emancipatory rules
Non-compliant (0)
fsQCA anchors
0
Not significant
0.25
0.50
0.75
less significant
cross-over point
mostly significant
the point of maximum ambiguity
1
highly significant

11. Program
PPP (6 projects)
Nature
Highly complex
Duration
Up to 30 years
Description
Multiple national
projects for the
construction of
healthcare facilities
Contract
type
Outcome Based
non-standard
contract
Contract
structure
Highly complex
IST/eTEN
(14 projects)
Medium to highly
complex
18-36 months
Multiple transnational
projects for the
creation and
deployment of
telemedicine
Performance Based
contract - Classical
Medium to highly
Complex
EARSS (3 projects)
Simple
6 years
Multiple national
projects for the
creation of a European
ICT epidemiology
network
Memorandum of
agreement
Highly relational –
minimum critical
specifications
Simple

12. Linkage
EARSS
IST eTEN
PPP
0.75
0.75
0.5
1
0.75
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0.75
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.5
0.5
Practical
0.75
0.25
0.75
1
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
0.5
0.25
0.25
0.5
0.25
0.5
0.25
0.5
1
0.75
0.5
0.75
0.5
0.75
Emancipatory
Outcome
0.75
0.75
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.25
0.25
0.5
0.5
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.5
0.5
0.25
0.5
0.75
0
0.25
0.25
0
0.25
0.25
1
0.5
1
0.75
1
0.25
0.75
0
0.25
0
1
0.75
0.5
0
1
0.25
0
0.25
0
1
0.5
1
0.75
Truth Table
with the values of each
condition for each
project

13. The resulting configurations
Within case configurations
Positive Behaviour
Significant minimized configurations consistency
EARSS
coverage
combined
~linkage*~practical
1
0.200000
0.444972
practical
1
0.700000
0.832466
linkage*~practical*emancipatory
0.8
0.400000
0.565685
linkage*practical*~emancipatory
1
0.400000
0.629285
IST-eTEN ~linkage*emancipatory
1
0.038462
0.195133
~linkage
1
0.038462
0.195133
~linkage*practical*emancipatory
0.750000
0.214286
0.376070
~linkage*~emancipatory
0.888889
0.571429
0.736788
~practical*~emancipatory
0.857143
0.428571
0.624500
~linkage
0.888889
0.571429
0.736788
PPP
Cross case configurations
~linkage
~linkage*(emancipatory + practical + practical *
~emancipatory + ~practical *emancipatory)

14. Discussion: what do the results say
The rules depend on a) interdependence and b) modularity within the programs
PPP
IST/eTEN
EARSS
Mixed Interdependencies
Low interdependence
High interdependence
Medium Modularity
High Modularity
High Modularity
less linkage
minimum linkage
minimum linkage
combine practical & emancipatory
emancipatory
practical
averse emancipatory
Highly complex
Medium to highly Complex
Simple

15. Conclusions and Implications
•
refute the idea of internalized complexity (Ashby, 1958)
•
or that a complex contract is unavoidable (Eggleston et al., 2000)
•
or that a contract should be complete and optimal (classical theory)
•
or that relationships matter more than rules (relational theory)
balance of rules
The systemic contract is flexible and enabling, directs evolutionary-emergent
action, not just controls (Remington, 2011)
•
identify which patterns of behaviour in a complex system are predictable and
can be standardized
•
provide platforms for patterns of behaviour that self-emerge and are
uncontrollable but highly desirable in situations require high interdependence
and flexibility
•
contracts should be purposely incomplete, focusing on adaptation and
interdependence and use control to a measure
analytic induction can merge the mode of confirmatory analysis used in
management approaches with the exploratory nature of work in
complexity theories (Phelan, 1998)

16. Contact details
Dr Maria Kapsali
Browaldh fellow - Assistant Professor in
Projects, Innovation and Networks
Umeå School of Business and Economics
Umeå Universitet
Dr Jens Roehrich
Assistant Professor in Operations and Supply
Management
School of Management
Biblioteksgränd 6, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
Information, Decision and Operations Group
University of Bath
e: maria.kapsali@usbe.umu.se
e: j.roehrich@bath.ac.uk
w: www.bath.ac.uk/management
t: +46 (0)90 786 5441
w: http://uk.linkedin.com/in/mariakapsali
skype: maria.kapsali25
twitter: marukapsalis

17. Appendices
• Retroduction: Logical reasoning
• Critical Realism
• Details on the 23 projects

18. Why fsQCA (3)

19. Deduction
Retroduction
Induction
Theory
Generalization
RULE and CASE to RESULT
CASE and RESULT to RULE
Empirical
Specific
RULE and RESULT to CASE
How deduction, induction and retroduction work through empirics and theory (Alvesson and Skoldberg, 1994)
Logical inferences from major and minor “ if ” assumptions – hypotheses
form probability statements when all conditions being equal the higher
past frequency the higher the probability to inference being generalizable
Induction
Logical inferences from specific cases to the general rules- construct the
origins or preconditions of a rule, piece by piece – focus on causation
Highly context specific – not generalizable
Abduction
The act of seeing something anew, a “flash” where you connect pieces of
information to understand an unexpected rule – application of common
sense to find the most plausible explanation
Retroduction Aims to assert the necessary and sufficient causes and preconditions to be
produced or reproduced, for the phenomenon to come into existence
Deduction
Formally correct but sometimes
empirically flawed- it depends on the
“correctness” of assumptions
Inductive thinking is susceptible to
habit, subjective experience and
expectation
Abductive reasoning is comparative
judgment and its clarity is non
systematic and questionable
Makes
comparative
judgment
systematic and relatively general
The four types of scientific abstraction – logical reasoning (as in Bertilsson, 2004).

20. Table 6.1: The ontological assumptions of CR 2008: 314).
(Downward,
Real
Contingent
conditions
Intrinsic objects
Mechanisms
may or may not fire
Triggers
Actual
The ontology of
CR (Modell, 2005)
Events and
tendencies
Patterns
may or may not
be observable
Empirical
Core Ontological Assumptions
Observation
Experience
Reality as a concrete process
Assumptions About Human Nature
Man as an adaptor
Basic Epistemological Stance
To study systems, process, change
Favored Metaphors
Organism

21. Epistemology
Role of theory
What is real is not given (there are
levels of reality). The world has both
forced and emergent structures.
People’s involvement with structures is
transformational
Theory is a conjecture
about the connectedness of
events and the causal
sequences produced by
generative mechanisms
Nature of explanation
Method of study
Something is explained if it is allocated
a place at the end of a causal
sequence. There may be multiple
causes of a single event coming from
the context. Contextualized
explanation
The aim is to produce a
theory which accurately
identifies causal
mechanisms
Retroduction
Assert the necessary and sufficient
causes and preconditions to produce
or reproduce the phenomenon/event
Makes comparative judgment
(abduction) systematic and relatively
general

22. Projects
EARSS 1
EARSS 2
EARSS 3
IST GALEN
IST ODIN
IST M2DM
Performance Bundle
Contract length
Concurrent national project
1998 – 2006
Concurrent national project
1998 – 2006
Concurrent national project
1998 – 2006
Open Source ontology development
1997 - 1999
European nursing informatics and telematics
1999 - 2001
Patient Telemonitoring Ultra Low Discomfort Vital
Signs Sensors over Mobile Networks
2001- 2005
Peripheral Regions Oriented Measure
1999 - 2001
Multi-Access telematic Management of Diabetes
Mellitus
2001 - 2005
eTEN AIDMAN
feasibility study protocol models, effectiveness
and performance for deployment
IST TELECARE
IST PROMPT
eTEN EURODONOR
eTEN EVITAL
eTEN MEDASHIP
eTEN MEDCONTI-NET
eTEN IREMMA
eTEN TELE-REMEDY
eTEN MEDICATE
eTEN NIVEMES
Hospital A
Hospital B
Waste Management A
Waste Management B
**
**
€ 1.8 m
€ 512.419
**
€ 2.100.578
The four types of
projects in this
order (top-down):
EARSS, IST, PPP
and eTEN
1999 - 2000
**
€0.73m
2003 - 2004
**
€3.19m
2002 - 2004
**
€2.13m
Medical consultation Assistance for ships service
analyse market demand for a Home Care system
in cross-national context
establish a trans-European network, services for
environmental diseases, Asthma Allergy
feasibility study, commercial validation and largescale deployment
Medical Diagnosis, Communications and Analysis
Throughout Europe for monitor asthma patients in
own homes
develop an international network of Telemedicine
providers and services
2002 - 2003
**
€2.73m
2002 - 2003
**
€2.63m
2002 - 2004
**
€1.82m
1998 - 1999
**
€3.2m
1999 - 2000
**
€3.67m
1996 - 1998
Design, build, finance and operate (DBFO);
construction of new hospital; hard and soft
service FM
30 years
**
€3m
Classical - Output Non-standard
£150m
30 years
**
Standard (version 3) £150m
DBFO; construction of new waste treatment plants 25 years
and stations; no waste collection
25 years
**
Non-standard £35m
**
Non-standard £100m
25 years
**
Non-standard £20m
25 years
**
Non-standard £10m
definition, specification realisation of European
Organ Data Exchange Portal Data Base
validate the European market for remote
monitoring service
Fire and Rescue Service A
Fire and Rescue Service B
Contract nature and value
Minimum specifications
**
**
Classical- performance
**
DBFO; construction of new training facility; hard
(estate) and soft service FM