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Central Asia Climate Smart Agriculture workshop
12 - 14 July 2016
Mobilizing Greater Crop and Land Potentials:
Replacing the Faltering Engine
Amir Kassam, Gottleib Basch, Theodor Friedrich,
Emilio Gonzalez, Paula Trivino, Saidi Mkomwa
Outline
• How appropriate is conventional tillage-based
agriculture in mobilizing crop and land potentials?
• How appropriate is Conservation Agriculture in
mobilizing crop and land potentials?
* This is work in progress
2
Conventional land preparation
regular tillage, clean seedbed, exposed
Effects:
• Loss of organic matter
• Loss of pores, structure soil compaction
• Destruction of biological life & processes
3
25cm
30cm
10cm
But underneath?
4
Residue retention distinguishes CA
from conventional farming systems
soil crusts – no mulch low
SOM
CLODS OF TOPSOIL FROM ADJACENT PLOTS
(Brisson et al. 2010)
Stagnating Yields (yield gap)
Rising-plateau regression analysis of wheat yields throughout various European countries
6
But inputs and input costs going up, diminishing returns setting in,
(THOMAS, 2004)
Water infiltration, just after a thunderstorm
Runoff and soil erosion
TILLAGE AGRICULTURE -- Erosion
9
10Google image, 16 February 2014
All agricultural soils show signs of degradation
World map of severity of land degradation – GLASOD (FAO 2000)
Also, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 – 89% our ecosystems
Degraded or severely degraded, only 11% in reasonable shape. 400-500 M ha lost
11
Degradation of soil, water and biodiversity resources
Consequences of tillage-based agriculture
at any level of development
FOR THE CROP (AND SOCIETY)
• Higher production costs, lower farm productivity and
profit, sub-optimal yield ceilings, poor resilience
• less use efficiency of mineral fertilizer: “The crops have
become ‘addicted’ to fertilizers”
• loss of (agro)biodiversity in the ecosystem, below & above
soil surface
• more pest problems (breakdown of food-webs for micro-
organisms and natural pest control)
• falling input efficiency & factor productivities, declining or
stagnating yields
• reduced resilience, reduced sustainability
• Poor adaptability to climate change & mitigation
12
Consequences of tillage-based agriculture
at any level of development
FOR THE LAND (AND SOCIETY)
• Dysfunctional ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, degraded
ecosystem services -- water, carbon, nutrient cycles,
suboptimal water provisioning & regulatory water
services etc.
• loss of OM, porosity, aeration, biota (=decline in soil
health -> collapse of soil structure -> compaction &
surface sealing -> decrease in infiltration)
• water loss as runoff & soil loss as sediment
• loss of time, energy, seeds, fertilizer, pesticide (erosion,
leaching)
• less capacity to capture and slow release water &
nutrients
13
What does Conservation
Agriculture offer in terms of Crop
and land potentials?
14
Switching to sustainable solutions
Technical objectives of SPI
• Agricultural land productivity
• Natural capital and flow of ecosystems services
Simultaneously
• Enhanced input-use efficiency
• Build farming system resilience (biotic and abiotic), including being
climate-smart
• Contribute to multiple-outcome objectives at farm, community &
landscape, and national scales e.g. climate change mitigation
And
• Capable of rehabilitating land productivity and ecosystem services in
degraded and abandoned lands
But how?
15
Worldwide adoption of
Conservation Agriculture
FAO Definition: www.fao.org/ag/ca
Conservation Agriculture (CA)
is an approach to managing agro-ecosystems
for improved and sustained productivity,
increased profits and food security while
preserving and enhancing the resource base
and the environment. CA is characterized
by three linked principles, namely:
1. Continuous no or minimum mechanical soil disturbance.
2. Permanent soil mulch cover - crop residues, cover crops.
3. Diversification of crop species grown in sequences or
associations or rotations.
Along with other GAPs  SPI & CSA
Conservation Agriculture
16
CA does not solve ALL problems
(NO panacea) but complemented with
other good practices CA base allows
for high production intensity and
sustainable agriculture
in all land-based
production systems
(rainfed & irrigated,
annual,
perennial,
plantation,
orchards,
agroforestry,
crop-livestock,
rice systems
CA principles operate as ecological foundation to
CA Systems
No/Minimum soil
disturbance
Soil Cover Crop Diversity
Integrated
Pest
Management
Integrated
Plant
Nutrient
Management
Integrated
Weed
Management
Integrated
Water
management
Sustainable
mechanization
Compaction
management,
CTF
Permanent
Bed and
Furrow
Systems
System
of Rice
Intensification
Good seed
Genetic potential
Genetic resources mgmt
Pollinator/
Biodiversity
management
Sustainable
agriculture
17
Minimum soil
disturbance
Soil Cover Crop Diversity
Integrated
Pest
Management
Integrated
Plant
Nutrient
Management
Integrated
Weed
Management
Integrated
Water
management
Sustainable
mechanization
Compaction
management,
CTF
Permanent
Bed and
Furrow
Systems
System
of Rice
Intensification
Good seed
Genetic potential
Genetic resources mgmt.
Pollinator/
Biodiversity
management
Sustainable
agriculture
18
Ecological Foundation of CA Systems
Soil productive capacity (vs. fertility) is derived from several components which
interact dynamically in space and time:
• Physical: architecture - pore structure, space & aeration
• Hydrological: moisture storage -
infiltration
• Chemical: nutrients, CEC, dynamics
• Biological: soil life & non living fractions
• Thermal: rates of biochemical processes
• Gravity: retention & flows of liquids
• Cropping system: rotation/association/sequence
A productive soil is a living system
and its health & productivity depends
on managing it as a ‘complex’ biological
system, not as a geological entity.
Pays attention to soil health -- soil as a ‘complex’
biological system, not just as a geological entity
19
Pays attention to biodiversity
oil food
ebs…
o-evolved
ant-
icrobiome
lations
bove ground
od webs &
abitates for
atural
nemies of
ests
est-predator
ynamics
round-nesting
rds, animals
nd insects 20
her
● Fotos
grandes. Solo
arrastra una
nueva imagen
y pásala para
átras
Path to waterfall on private property brings income to locals in the
form of ecotourismMonteverde Cloudforest Reserve
provides important source of water in
landscape and downstream
Windbreaks provide habitat and
corridors for wildlife, control erosion
and protect livestock from wind
Shaded coffee extends wildlife habitat from reserve and
reduces erosion
All fences are live rows of trees
Coffee, corn, sugar cane and other products are sold at
a local cooperative
Pays attention to eco-agriculture landscapes: harmonizing
multiple objectives at farm, community, landscape scales
21
Pays attention to harnessing ecosystem
services from Land
Water cycling Carbon cycling Atmospheric circulation
22
Source: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Sustainable Land Preparation - smallholders
Planting holes, ripping or mulching, direct drill
23
No-tillage in Europe
(W. Sturny) 24
Worldwide adoption of
Conservation Agriculture
Connference on Conservation Agriculture for Smallholders in Asia and Africa. 7-11 December, Mymensigh University, Bangldesh
100
Dustbowl
1930 20001950
USSoilConservationService
conservationtillage
dustbowl
Siberia/USSR
Faulkner(US)–Fukuoka(Japan)
commercialno-till/US
firstno-tilldemonstrationinBrazil
Oldrieve/Zimbabwe
adoptionBrazil
plantiodiretonapalha
experimentsinChina,IndogangeticPlains
Newboost:Canada,
Australia,Kazakhstan,
Russia,China,Finland...;
Africa
Argentina,Paraguay;
1980 1990
Firstno-tillintheUS
IITAno-tillresearch
50
Mill.ha
History and Adoption of CA (2013). Since
2008/09 increasing at 10 M ha annually
1970 2010
157mill ha
firstno-tillfarmersinUSA
FirstWCCAinMadrid
25
Worldwide adoption of
Conservation Agriculture
**
Area of cropland under CA by continent - 2013
(source: FAO AquaStat: www.fao/ag/ca/6c.html)
slide 2/x
Continent Area
(Mill. ha)
Per cent of
global total
Per cent of
arable land
of reporting
countries
South America 66.0 (49.6)* 41.3 (34)# 60.0
North America 54.0 (40.0) 34.8 (40) 24.0
Australia & NZ 17.9 (12.2) 11.5 (47) 35.9+
Asia
Russia & Ukraine
Europe
Africa
10.3 (2.6)
5.2 (0.1)
2.1 (1.6)
1.2 (0.5)
6.6 (291)
3.4(5000)
1.4 (31)
0.8 (140)
3.0
3.3
2.8
0.9
Global total 157 (106)*
( )* 2008/9
100 (48)#
( )# % change since
2008/09
10.9 (7.4)*
%global cropland
+ includes non-
cropland
26~50% in developing regions, ~50 % in industrialized regions
Conservation Agriculture
CROP
• Increase & stable yields, productivity,
profit (depending on level and degradation)
• Less fertilizer use (-50%) no fertilizer
less pesticides (-20->50%) no pesticides
• Less machinery, energy &
labour cost (50-70%)
• water needs (-30-40%)
LAND
• Lower impact of climate (drought, floods, heat, cold) &
climate change adaptation & mitigation
• Lower environmental cost (water, infrastructure)
• Rehabilitation of degraded lands & ecosystem services
Wheat yield and nitrogen amount for different
duration of no-tillage in Canada 2002 (Lafond
2003)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0 30 60 90 120
nitrogen (kg/haGrainyield(t/ha)
20-year no-tillage
2-year no-tillage
Impact pattern with CA – small or big farms
Source: Dijkstra, 1998
Empirical evidence: The Frank Dijkstra farm in
Ponta Grossa, Brazil – Sub-humid tropics
28
Wheat yield response to nitrogen fertilization
(--- according to the model) – Dry sub-tropics WR
Carvalho et al., 2012
29
Longer term maize grain yields on farmers fields
in Malawi – Lemu – Semi-arid tropics
Harvest year
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Maizebiomassyield(kgha
-1
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Conventional control, maize (CPM)
CA, maize (CAM)
CA, maize/legume intercropping (CAML)
a
a
a a
b
b
aa
b
b
a
a
b
a
a
b
a a
Longer term maize grain yields on farmers
fields in Malawi - Zidyana
31
Zidyana
Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
YielddifferencebetweenCAandCP(kgha
-1
)
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
CAML
CAM
C
CIMMYT– Thierfelder et al.
Economic viability-Malawi
Lemu Zidyana
CP CA CAL CP CA CAL
Gross Receipts 528.6 881.5 979.7 1047.2 1309.5 1293.7
Variable costs
Inputs 238.5 341.0 353.6 221.7 323.7 346.1
Labour days (6 hr days) 61.7 39.9 49.4 61.7 39.9 49.4
Labour costs 159.5 103.2 127.9 155.6 100.7 124.7
Sprayer costs 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.2
Total variable costs 398.1 445.9 482.8 377.3 426.1 472.1
Net returns (US$/ha) 130.5 435.5 497.1 669.9 883.3 821.9
Returns to labour (US$/day) 1.8 5.2 4.9 5.4 9.8 7.6
Source: Ngwira et al., 2012
Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible CSIC , Cordoba, Setiembre 2005
Farm power – 4 tractors with 384 HP under tillage & 2 tractors with 143 HP under no-till
Farm near Evora, South Portugal 33
Example 1-- Canada: Carbon offset scheme in Alberta
Sequestering soil Carbon with CA and trading offsets with regulated companies
to offset their emissions by purchasing verified tonnes
(from ag and non-ag sectors)
Source: Tom Goddard et al.
34
Itaipu reservoir dam today (source: Itaipu Binacional)
Water resources are threatened by
conventional tillage agricultural practices.
Conservation Agriculture is an alternative
to reduce impacts on river’s quality and to
maintain a higher level of productivity and
sustainability.
Cultivating Good Water Programme
35
Example 2 -- Watershed services in Parana Basin, Brazil
Broad conclusions
• CA can sustainably mobilize greater crop and land
potentials with increased efficiency and resilience.
• CA offers greater output and profit to smallholders
and large farmers with less resources and minimum
land degradation.
• CA is increasingly seen as a real alternative for SPI
and ES, and it is spreading at an annual rate of 10
M ha.
36
And, the messages, once understood, even
make people dance!
More information: amirkassam786@googlemail.com
http://www.fao.org/ag/ca
Join CA-CoP 37
The Supply Side – what does it look like?
Latest FAO projections for 2050 – 50-70% increase globally = 0.9% increase annually
Year Population Cereal output Net Production Area Yield
(billion) (mil. t) (mil. Ha) (t/ha)
2014 7.2 2,532 (352 kg pc) 715 3.54
2050 9.2 3,280 (356 kg pc) 763 4.30 (3.44)#
Plateau 10.0~ 5,000* (500 kg pc) 763^ 6.55 (5.24)#
(2100+) or 1000^ 5.00 (4.00)#
* at 500 kg/capita which is the current Western European level of cereal use (including wastage)
# with 50% cut in food waste
^ Cereal: non-cereal ratio is ~50:50; so total arable land requirement would be 2,000 Ml ha
assuming some expansion in cropland or could be 1,470 M ha assuming no expansion beyond
2050. In addition, we need land for permanent crops which could mean another 500 M ha. So
the total land required to meet future demand would be somewhere between 2000 and 2,500
M ha.
Potential suitable land is 4,495 M ha, currently used is 1,559 M ha. Marginal land is 2,738 M
ha, which includes some 400-500 M ha of abandoned land due to degradation (Gibbs and
Salmon, 2015).
If we decide to eat less meat in the future, then the required area and yields can be lower. There
is also the biofuel question which will push the area up.
38
Worldwide adoption of
Conservation Agriculture
6th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture, Winnipeg, 22-25 June 2014 slide 2/x
subtropical, semi-arid
USA 36
Canada
18
Australia 17.9
Europe 2 Kazakhstan 2
Africa 1.2
Brazil 32
Argentina 27
Paraguay 3
China 6.7
tropical savannah
continental, dry
sub-tropics, temperate, moist
temperate, moist
continental, dry
irrigated
smallholder
smallholder
smallholder
temperate & subtropical
moist & semi-arid
subtropical,
semi-arid
large scale &
smallholder
large
scale
large scale
large scale
large scale
large & small
scale
tropical savannah
other LA 2.4
>50% W
(40%)
20%
99%
100% West
(36%)
Russia,
Ukraine 5.2
India 1.5
smallholder
other Asia 0.1
39
Conservation Agriculture globally 157 Million ha (2013)
(~11% of annual cropland)
Conservation Agriculture
Small scale -- Paraguay, Tanzania, India, China, Lesotho,
Zimbabwe ……
Large scale – Canada, USA, Brazil, Australia, Argentina,
Kazakhstan .....
Cross Slot Conference and Tour 2012 – Germany/France
publications
Documented benefits of CA for food security,
environment, sustainability, rehabilitation
40
• Erosion: North America,
Brazil, China
• Drought: China, Australia,
Kazakhstan, Zambia
• Cost of production: global
• Soil degradation: global
• Ecosystem services: global
• Climate change A&M: global
• Sustainable intensification: global
• Pro-poor: developing regions
Spread is farmer-led but needs
policy & institutional support,
specially for smallholders
Conservation Agriculture
41
Drivers for adoption of CA
Challenges/issues/considerations
of transformation and transition
• Weeds/herbicides
• Labour
• Larger farms
• Livestock
• Community engagement
• Temperate areas
• Farmers working together
• Equipment and machinery
• Knowledge and technical capacity
• Risk involved in transforming to no-till systems
• Approaches to adoption and scaling
• Policy and institutional support – private, public, civil society 42

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Mobilizing greater crop and land potentials: replacing the faltering engine

  • 1. Central Asia Climate Smart Agriculture workshop 12 - 14 July 2016 Mobilizing Greater Crop and Land Potentials: Replacing the Faltering Engine Amir Kassam, Gottleib Basch, Theodor Friedrich, Emilio Gonzalez, Paula Trivino, Saidi Mkomwa
  • 2. Outline • How appropriate is conventional tillage-based agriculture in mobilizing crop and land potentials? • How appropriate is Conservation Agriculture in mobilizing crop and land potentials? * This is work in progress 2
  • 3. Conventional land preparation regular tillage, clean seedbed, exposed Effects: • Loss of organic matter • Loss of pores, structure soil compaction • Destruction of biological life & processes 3
  • 5. Residue retention distinguishes CA from conventional farming systems soil crusts – no mulch low SOM CLODS OF TOPSOIL FROM ADJACENT PLOTS
  • 6. (Brisson et al. 2010) Stagnating Yields (yield gap) Rising-plateau regression analysis of wheat yields throughout various European countries 6 But inputs and input costs going up, diminishing returns setting in,
  • 7. (THOMAS, 2004) Water infiltration, just after a thunderstorm
  • 8. Runoff and soil erosion
  • 10. 10Google image, 16 February 2014
  • 11. All agricultural soils show signs of degradation World map of severity of land degradation – GLASOD (FAO 2000) Also, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 – 89% our ecosystems Degraded or severely degraded, only 11% in reasonable shape. 400-500 M ha lost 11 Degradation of soil, water and biodiversity resources
  • 12. Consequences of tillage-based agriculture at any level of development FOR THE CROP (AND SOCIETY) • Higher production costs, lower farm productivity and profit, sub-optimal yield ceilings, poor resilience • less use efficiency of mineral fertilizer: “The crops have become ‘addicted’ to fertilizers” • loss of (agro)biodiversity in the ecosystem, below & above soil surface • more pest problems (breakdown of food-webs for micro- organisms and natural pest control) • falling input efficiency & factor productivities, declining or stagnating yields • reduced resilience, reduced sustainability • Poor adaptability to climate change & mitigation 12
  • 13. Consequences of tillage-based agriculture at any level of development FOR THE LAND (AND SOCIETY) • Dysfunctional ecosystems, loss of biodiversity, degraded ecosystem services -- water, carbon, nutrient cycles, suboptimal water provisioning & regulatory water services etc. • loss of OM, porosity, aeration, biota (=decline in soil health -> collapse of soil structure -> compaction & surface sealing -> decrease in infiltration) • water loss as runoff & soil loss as sediment • loss of time, energy, seeds, fertilizer, pesticide (erosion, leaching) • less capacity to capture and slow release water & nutrients 13
  • 14. What does Conservation Agriculture offer in terms of Crop and land potentials? 14 Switching to sustainable solutions
  • 15. Technical objectives of SPI • Agricultural land productivity • Natural capital and flow of ecosystems services Simultaneously • Enhanced input-use efficiency • Build farming system resilience (biotic and abiotic), including being climate-smart • Contribute to multiple-outcome objectives at farm, community & landscape, and national scales e.g. climate change mitigation And • Capable of rehabilitating land productivity and ecosystem services in degraded and abandoned lands But how? 15
  • 16. Worldwide adoption of Conservation Agriculture FAO Definition: www.fao.org/ag/ca Conservation Agriculture (CA) is an approach to managing agro-ecosystems for improved and sustained productivity, increased profits and food security while preserving and enhancing the resource base and the environment. CA is characterized by three linked principles, namely: 1. Continuous no or minimum mechanical soil disturbance. 2. Permanent soil mulch cover - crop residues, cover crops. 3. Diversification of crop species grown in sequences or associations or rotations. Along with other GAPs  SPI & CSA Conservation Agriculture 16
  • 17. CA does not solve ALL problems (NO panacea) but complemented with other good practices CA base allows for high production intensity and sustainable agriculture in all land-based production systems (rainfed & irrigated, annual, perennial, plantation, orchards, agroforestry, crop-livestock, rice systems CA principles operate as ecological foundation to CA Systems No/Minimum soil disturbance Soil Cover Crop Diversity Integrated Pest Management Integrated Plant Nutrient Management Integrated Weed Management Integrated Water management Sustainable mechanization Compaction management, CTF Permanent Bed and Furrow Systems System of Rice Intensification Good seed Genetic potential Genetic resources mgmt Pollinator/ Biodiversity management Sustainable agriculture 17
  • 18. Minimum soil disturbance Soil Cover Crop Diversity Integrated Pest Management Integrated Plant Nutrient Management Integrated Weed Management Integrated Water management Sustainable mechanization Compaction management, CTF Permanent Bed and Furrow Systems System of Rice Intensification Good seed Genetic potential Genetic resources mgmt. Pollinator/ Biodiversity management Sustainable agriculture 18 Ecological Foundation of CA Systems
  • 19. Soil productive capacity (vs. fertility) is derived from several components which interact dynamically in space and time: • Physical: architecture - pore structure, space & aeration • Hydrological: moisture storage - infiltration • Chemical: nutrients, CEC, dynamics • Biological: soil life & non living fractions • Thermal: rates of biochemical processes • Gravity: retention & flows of liquids • Cropping system: rotation/association/sequence A productive soil is a living system and its health & productivity depends on managing it as a ‘complex’ biological system, not as a geological entity. Pays attention to soil health -- soil as a ‘complex’ biological system, not just as a geological entity 19
  • 20. Pays attention to biodiversity oil food ebs… o-evolved ant- icrobiome lations bove ground od webs & abitates for atural nemies of ests est-predator ynamics round-nesting rds, animals nd insects 20
  • 21. her ● Fotos grandes. Solo arrastra una nueva imagen y pásala para átras Path to waterfall on private property brings income to locals in the form of ecotourismMonteverde Cloudforest Reserve provides important source of water in landscape and downstream Windbreaks provide habitat and corridors for wildlife, control erosion and protect livestock from wind Shaded coffee extends wildlife habitat from reserve and reduces erosion All fences are live rows of trees Coffee, corn, sugar cane and other products are sold at a local cooperative Pays attention to eco-agriculture landscapes: harmonizing multiple objectives at farm, community, landscape scales 21
  • 22. Pays attention to harnessing ecosystem services from Land Water cycling Carbon cycling Atmospheric circulation 22 Source: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
  • 23. Sustainable Land Preparation - smallholders Planting holes, ripping or mulching, direct drill 23
  • 25. Worldwide adoption of Conservation Agriculture Connference on Conservation Agriculture for Smallholders in Asia and Africa. 7-11 December, Mymensigh University, Bangldesh 100 Dustbowl 1930 20001950 USSoilConservationService conservationtillage dustbowl Siberia/USSR Faulkner(US)–Fukuoka(Japan) commercialno-till/US firstno-tilldemonstrationinBrazil Oldrieve/Zimbabwe adoptionBrazil plantiodiretonapalha experimentsinChina,IndogangeticPlains Newboost:Canada, Australia,Kazakhstan, Russia,China,Finland...; Africa Argentina,Paraguay; 1980 1990 Firstno-tillintheUS IITAno-tillresearch 50 Mill.ha History and Adoption of CA (2013). Since 2008/09 increasing at 10 M ha annually 1970 2010 157mill ha firstno-tillfarmersinUSA FirstWCCAinMadrid 25
  • 26. Worldwide adoption of Conservation Agriculture ** Area of cropland under CA by continent - 2013 (source: FAO AquaStat: www.fao/ag/ca/6c.html) slide 2/x Continent Area (Mill. ha) Per cent of global total Per cent of arable land of reporting countries South America 66.0 (49.6)* 41.3 (34)# 60.0 North America 54.0 (40.0) 34.8 (40) 24.0 Australia & NZ 17.9 (12.2) 11.5 (47) 35.9+ Asia Russia & Ukraine Europe Africa 10.3 (2.6) 5.2 (0.1) 2.1 (1.6) 1.2 (0.5) 6.6 (291) 3.4(5000) 1.4 (31) 0.8 (140) 3.0 3.3 2.8 0.9 Global total 157 (106)* ( )* 2008/9 100 (48)# ( )# % change since 2008/09 10.9 (7.4)* %global cropland + includes non- cropland 26~50% in developing regions, ~50 % in industrialized regions
  • 27. Conservation Agriculture CROP • Increase & stable yields, productivity, profit (depending on level and degradation) • Less fertilizer use (-50%) no fertilizer less pesticides (-20->50%) no pesticides • Less machinery, energy & labour cost (50-70%) • water needs (-30-40%) LAND • Lower impact of climate (drought, floods, heat, cold) & climate change adaptation & mitigation • Lower environmental cost (water, infrastructure) • Rehabilitation of degraded lands & ecosystem services Wheat yield and nitrogen amount for different duration of no-tillage in Canada 2002 (Lafond 2003) 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 0 30 60 90 120 nitrogen (kg/haGrainyield(t/ha) 20-year no-tillage 2-year no-tillage Impact pattern with CA – small or big farms
  • 28. Source: Dijkstra, 1998 Empirical evidence: The Frank Dijkstra farm in Ponta Grossa, Brazil – Sub-humid tropics 28
  • 29. Wheat yield response to nitrogen fertilization (--- according to the model) – Dry sub-tropics WR Carvalho et al., 2012 29
  • 30. Longer term maize grain yields on farmers fields in Malawi – Lemu – Semi-arid tropics Harvest year 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Maizebiomassyield(kgha -1 ) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Conventional control, maize (CPM) CA, maize (CAM) CA, maize/legume intercropping (CAML) a a a a b b aa b b a a b a a b a a
  • 31. Longer term maize grain yields on farmers fields in Malawi - Zidyana 31 Zidyana Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YielddifferencebetweenCAandCP(kgha -1 ) -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 CAML CAM C CIMMYT– Thierfelder et al.
  • 32. Economic viability-Malawi Lemu Zidyana CP CA CAL CP CA CAL Gross Receipts 528.6 881.5 979.7 1047.2 1309.5 1293.7 Variable costs Inputs 238.5 341.0 353.6 221.7 323.7 346.1 Labour days (6 hr days) 61.7 39.9 49.4 61.7 39.9 49.4 Labour costs 159.5 103.2 127.9 155.6 100.7 124.7 Sprayer costs 1.7 1.2 1.7 1.2 Total variable costs 398.1 445.9 482.8 377.3 426.1 472.1 Net returns (US$/ha) 130.5 435.5 497.1 669.9 883.3 821.9 Returns to labour (US$/day) 1.8 5.2 4.9 5.4 9.8 7.6 Source: Ngwira et al., 2012
  • 33. Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible CSIC , Cordoba, Setiembre 2005 Farm power – 4 tractors with 384 HP under tillage & 2 tractors with 143 HP under no-till Farm near Evora, South Portugal 33
  • 34. Example 1-- Canada: Carbon offset scheme in Alberta Sequestering soil Carbon with CA and trading offsets with regulated companies to offset their emissions by purchasing verified tonnes (from ag and non-ag sectors) Source: Tom Goddard et al. 34
  • 35. Itaipu reservoir dam today (source: Itaipu Binacional) Water resources are threatened by conventional tillage agricultural practices. Conservation Agriculture is an alternative to reduce impacts on river’s quality and to maintain a higher level of productivity and sustainability. Cultivating Good Water Programme 35 Example 2 -- Watershed services in Parana Basin, Brazil
  • 36. Broad conclusions • CA can sustainably mobilize greater crop and land potentials with increased efficiency and resilience. • CA offers greater output and profit to smallholders and large farmers with less resources and minimum land degradation. • CA is increasingly seen as a real alternative for SPI and ES, and it is spreading at an annual rate of 10 M ha. 36
  • 37. And, the messages, once understood, even make people dance! More information: amirkassam786@googlemail.com http://www.fao.org/ag/ca Join CA-CoP 37
  • 38. The Supply Side – what does it look like? Latest FAO projections for 2050 – 50-70% increase globally = 0.9% increase annually Year Population Cereal output Net Production Area Yield (billion) (mil. t) (mil. Ha) (t/ha) 2014 7.2 2,532 (352 kg pc) 715 3.54 2050 9.2 3,280 (356 kg pc) 763 4.30 (3.44)# Plateau 10.0~ 5,000* (500 kg pc) 763^ 6.55 (5.24)# (2100+) or 1000^ 5.00 (4.00)# * at 500 kg/capita which is the current Western European level of cereal use (including wastage) # with 50% cut in food waste ^ Cereal: non-cereal ratio is ~50:50; so total arable land requirement would be 2,000 Ml ha assuming some expansion in cropland or could be 1,470 M ha assuming no expansion beyond 2050. In addition, we need land for permanent crops which could mean another 500 M ha. So the total land required to meet future demand would be somewhere between 2000 and 2,500 M ha. Potential suitable land is 4,495 M ha, currently used is 1,559 M ha. Marginal land is 2,738 M ha, which includes some 400-500 M ha of abandoned land due to degradation (Gibbs and Salmon, 2015). If we decide to eat less meat in the future, then the required area and yields can be lower. There is also the biofuel question which will push the area up. 38
  • 39. Worldwide adoption of Conservation Agriculture 6th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture, Winnipeg, 22-25 June 2014 slide 2/x subtropical, semi-arid USA 36 Canada 18 Australia 17.9 Europe 2 Kazakhstan 2 Africa 1.2 Brazil 32 Argentina 27 Paraguay 3 China 6.7 tropical savannah continental, dry sub-tropics, temperate, moist temperate, moist continental, dry irrigated smallholder smallholder smallholder temperate & subtropical moist & semi-arid subtropical, semi-arid large scale & smallholder large scale large scale large scale large scale large & small scale tropical savannah other LA 2.4 >50% W (40%) 20% 99% 100% West (36%) Russia, Ukraine 5.2 India 1.5 smallholder other Asia 0.1 39 Conservation Agriculture globally 157 Million ha (2013) (~11% of annual cropland)
  • 40. Conservation Agriculture Small scale -- Paraguay, Tanzania, India, China, Lesotho, Zimbabwe …… Large scale – Canada, USA, Brazil, Australia, Argentina, Kazakhstan ..... Cross Slot Conference and Tour 2012 – Germany/France publications Documented benefits of CA for food security, environment, sustainability, rehabilitation 40
  • 41. • Erosion: North America, Brazil, China • Drought: China, Australia, Kazakhstan, Zambia • Cost of production: global • Soil degradation: global • Ecosystem services: global • Climate change A&M: global • Sustainable intensification: global • Pro-poor: developing regions Spread is farmer-led but needs policy & institutional support, specially for smallholders Conservation Agriculture 41 Drivers for adoption of CA
  • 42. Challenges/issues/considerations of transformation and transition • Weeds/herbicides • Labour • Larger farms • Livestock • Community engagement • Temperate areas • Farmers working together • Equipment and machinery • Knowledge and technical capacity • Risk involved in transforming to no-till systems • Approaches to adoption and scaling • Policy and institutional support – private, public, civil society 42