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DANILO GARCIA
Forecasting 101:
Como fazer um
forecast básico de
projetos
Forecasting
101 O que é Forecasting?
O que precisamos?
Forecasting
101
• Vazão/Throughput (TH)
• Backlog
• Histórias de usuário
• Story points
• Critérios de aceite
Cenário
Forecasting
101
Vazão Histórias Pontos
Sprint 2 5 20
Sprint 3 10 43
Sprint 4 12 44
Sprint 5 9 37
Sprint 6 15 46
Sprint 7 12 43
Sprint 8 22 56
Histórias Pontos
Backlog 40 420
Usando a média do número de história
Forecasting
101
Entregamos 13 histórias por sprint
Desvio padrão de 4.8
Backlog tem 40 histórias
Logo:
O backlog será entregue em 4.5 sprints
Usando a média de story points
Forecasting
101
Entregamos 40 pontos por sprint
Desvio padrão de 9.7
Backlog tem 420 pontos
Logo:
O backlog será entregue em 10.5 sprints
Algo não está certo….
Forecasting
101
4.5 sprints pra finalizar as estórias do backlog
10.5 sprints pra finalizar os pontos do backlog
E agora?!
Olhando pro histórico
Forecasting
101
Histórias entregues: 117
Pontos entregues: 363
Em média temos 3.10 pontos por história
Olhando pro Backlog
Forecasting
101
Backlog em estórias: 40
Backlog em pontos: 420
Em média temos 10.5 pontos por história
Refinando
Forecasting
101
• Refinar o backlog
• Tentar fazer com que o tamanho das
histórias sejam parecidos com os que
entregamos
Logo:
Podemos assumir que as estórias do
backlog se quebraram em +-3 histórias
Assumindo riscos
Forecasting
101
Use a média e subtraia o desvio padrão!
Story Points
Média: 40
Desvio Padrão: 9.7
Assumindo riscos
Forecasting
101
O que esperamos O que é realidade
Forecasting like always!
Forecasting
101
Com uma taxa de 30 pontos e +- 70% de confiança
Entregaremos o backlog em 14 sprints
Refaça o cálculo todo Sprint!!!
Obrigado!
DANILO GARCIA
danilo.garcia@objective.com.br
danilo-garcia-17153065

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Forecasting 101 - Como fazer um forecast básico de projetos