Presented by Richard Van der Hoff (Investigador del GCS REDD+ y Universidad Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG)) at "Ciencia y políticas públicas para mitigar la deforestación y el cambio climático: Reunión final de la plataforma de ciencia y política del GCS REDD+ Perú" on 19 December 2023, Perú.

1. WP4.2 – Escenarios de deforestación para construir
políticas públicas
19 December 2023 Richard van der Hoff
Juliana Leroy Davis

2. Overview
Interactive Tool WIZARD
• Definition and main features
• Application for policy development and analysis
Scenarios results
• Business-as-Usual (BaU)
• Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Compliance

3. INTERACTIVE TOOL
WIZARD

4. WIZARD: definition and main features
• SimPeru is a specialized tool designed
to address deforestation in the
Peruvian Amazon.
• It relies on statistical analysis of
environmental and physical variables to
predict where deforestation is likely to
occur until 2030.
• SimPeru also calculates deforestation
emissions, making it a valuable
resource for policymakers and
researchers.
• By inputting the expected amount of
deforestation, the model provides
insight into where it may occur and
estimates the resulting emissions.
Deforestation scenario
(amount of deforestation)
Deforestation spatial
allocation
Deforestation emissions
calculation

5. • Link for download:
www.csr.ufmg.br/imagery/dl/ftp.php?p=/SimPeru_WIZARD.zip
Downloads can be counted
WIZARD: definition and main features

6. WIZARD: application for policy development and analysis
INPUTS

7. WIZARD: application for policy development and analysis
INPUTS
RAGEI
parameters to
GHG emissions
calculation

8. WIZARD: application for policy development and analysis
OUTPUTS
MAPS:

9. WIZARD: application for policy development and analysis
OUTPUTS
TABLES:
Results in three spatial levels:
Peru, Departments and territorial categories

10. SCENARIO RESULTS
BAU
NDC

11. Global Comparative Study on REDD+fg
Peru: future scenarios
BaU scenario
• Continuation of historical trend
NDC Compliance scenario
• ...
• ...

12. Future scenarios:
deforestation probability
Departamentos Area_hectares
Amazonas 493,475
Ayacucho 27,850
Cajamarca+Piura 33,475
Cusco 488,050
Huanuco 272,350
Junin+ Huancavelica 335,450
Loreto 3,775,000
Madre de Dios 1,426,900
Pasco 262,175
Puno 263,925
SanMartin+ La Liberdad 753,225
Ucayali 2,088,950

13. Future scenarios: deforestation trajectories
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Hectaes
BAU NDC
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Tierras no
categorizadas
Comunidades
Nativas
Tituladas
BPP
concesionadas
BPP a ser
concessionados
Áreas Naturales
Protegidas
Comunidades
Campesinas
Tituladas
RESERVAS
TERRITORIALES
A FAVOR DE
INDÍGENAS
AISLADOS EN
CONTACTO
INICIAL
PREDIOS
RURALES
Humedales en
la Amazonía
BAU
NDC
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
Hectares
BAU
NDC

14. Landuse maps

15. Departamento
Desmatamento 2030 Desmatamento acumulado
BAU NDC
Desmatamento
evitado 2030
Participação
mitigação
BAU NDC
Desmatamento
evitado
Participação
mitigação
Loreto 96,600 70,875 25,725 40% 870,900
659,750 211,150
42%
Ucayali 53,375 40,150 13,225 21% 541,375
436,900 104,475
21%
Madre de Dios 38,750 32,100 6,650 10% 382,550
324,225 58,325
12%
Puno 7,975 4,675 3,300 5% 79,625
47,350 32,275
6%
San Martin + La Liberdad 14,600 10,075 4,525 7% 105,650
73,375 32,275
6%
Cusco 15,200 11,750 3,450 5% 124,325
92,125 32,200
6%
Amazonas 6,600 2,725 3,875 6%
30,300 12,175 18,125
4%
Junin + Huancavelica 5,550 3,875 1,675 3%
24,750 17,750 7,000
1%
Pasco 4,825 3,875 950 1%
23,650 19,150 4,500
1%
Huanuco 5,550 4,975 575 1%
45,050 40,725 4,325
1%
Ayacucho 750 725 25 0.04%
3,950 3,250 700
0.14%
Cajamarca 75 25 50 0.08%
200 50 150
0.03%
Total 249,850 185,825 64,025 2,232,325 1,726,825 505,500
Deforestation by department
Loreto, 40%
Ucayali, 21%
Madre de Dios, 10%
Puno, 5%
San Martin + La
Liberdad, 7%
Cusco, 5%
Amazonas, 6%
Junin + Huancavelica, 3%
Pasco, 1% Huanuco, 1% Ayacucho, 0.04%
Cajamarca, 0.08%

16. Categorias Territoriais
Desmatamento 2030 Desmatamento acumulado
BAU NDC
Desmatamento
evitado 2030
Participação
mitigação BAU NDC
Desmatamento
evitado
Participação
mitigação
Tierras no categorizadas 80,775 53,825
26,950
42%
737,500 484,075
253,425 50%
Comunidades Nativas Tituladas 51,425 36,475
14,950
23%
451,675 337,725
113,950 23%
BPP concesionadas 38,175 27,725
10,450
16%
325,925 262,175
63,750 13%
BPP a ser concessionados 36,800 28,725
8,075
13%
325,925 275,400
50,525 10%
Áreas Naturales Protegidas 10,475 6,875
3,600
6%
92,450 68,600
23,850 5%
Comunidades Campesinas Tituladas 2,625 2,625 - 0%
23,825 23,825
- 0%
RESERVAS TERRITORIALES A
FAVOR DE INDÍGENAS AISLADOS
EN CONTACTO INICIAL
250 250 - 0%
2,100 2,100
- 0%
PREDIOS RURALES 28,100 28,100 - 0%
262,300 262,300
- 0%
Humedales en la Amazonía 1,225 1,225 - 0%
10,625 10,625
- 0%
Total 249,850 185,825 64,025 4,464,650 3,453,650 505,500
Deforestation by territorial category
Tierras no categorizadas
42%
Comunidades Nativas
Tituladas
23%
BPP concesionadas
16%
BPP a ser
concessionados
13%
Áreas Naturales
Protegidas
6%

18. Landuse Loreto 2020

19. Landuse Loreto 2030 BAU

20. Landuse Loreto 2030 NDC

21. -
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
ton
CO2
Future scenarios: emissions trajectories
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
Tierras no
categorizadas
Comunidades
Nativas Tituladas
BPP
concesionadas
BPP a ser
concessionados
Áreas Naturales
Protegidas
Comunidades
Campesinas
Tituladas
RESERVAS
TERRITORIALES A
FAVOR DE
INDÍGENAS
AISLADOS EN
CONTACTO
INICIAL
PREDIOS
RURALES
Humedales en la
Amazonía
ton
CO2
BAU NDC
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
400,000,000
450,000,000
500,000,000
ton
CO2
BAU NDC

22. Departamento
Emissões 2030 Emissões acumuladas
BAU NDC
Emissões evitadas
2030
Participação
mitigação BAU NDC
Desmatamento
evitado
Participação
mitigação
Loreto 51,245,229 37,491,681 13,753,548 41% 462,485,951 345,577,376 116,908,576 44%
Ucayali 28,466,424 22,332,185 6,134,239 18% 286,909,010 234,078,039 52,830,971 20%
Madre de Dios 20,342,060 15,762,186 4,579,874 14% 203,413,801 171,321,294 32,092,507 12%
Cusco 8,522,136 6,345,141 2,176,994 6% 66,039,914 50,323,078 15,716,836 6%
Puno 4,539,829 3,092,925 1,446,905 4% 41,123,950 25,606,230 15,517,720 6%
San Martin + La Liberdad 6,876,116 5,455,760 1,420,356 4% 54,969,102 41,562,004 13,407,098 5%
Amazonas 3,278,766 1,500,002 1,778,764 5% 16,300,907 6,836,293 9,464,615 4%
Junin + Huancavelica 3,491,155 1,566,374 1,924,781 6% 14,296,480 9,411,517 4,884,962 2%
Pasco 2,588,499 1,845,135 743,364 2% 12,504,442 9,238,951 3,265,491 1%
Huanuco 2,801,047 2,907,412 - 106,366 0% 24,201,225 20,882,334 3,318,891 1%
Ayacucho 345,133 345,133 - 0.00% 2,707,968 1,738,940 969,028 0.36%
Cajamarca 79,646 13,274 66,372 0.20% 119,469 26,549 92,920 0.03%
Total 132,576,039 98,657,209 33,918,830 1,185,072,221 916,602,605 268,469,615
Loreto, 41%
Ucayali, 18%
Madre de Dios, 14%
Cusco, 6%
Puno, 4%
San Martin + La Liberdad, 4%
Amazonas, 5%
Junin + Huancavelica, 6% Pasco, 2%

23. Categorias Territoriais
Emissões 2030 Emissões acumuladas
BAU NDC
Emissões evitadas
2030
Participação
mitigação BAU NDC Emissões evitadas
Participação
mitigação
Tierras no categorizadas 42,827,850 28,584,052 14,243,798 42%
391,481,416 256,997,867
134,483,549
50%
Comunidades Nativas Tituladas 27,309,636 19,370,325 7,939,311 23%
239,864,576 179,351,062
60,513,515
23%
BPP concesionadas 20,233,745 14,724,500 5,509,245 16%
172,920,739 138,959,239
33,961,500
13%
BPP a ser concessionados 19,541,606 15,227,187 4,314,419 13%
173,004,613 146,148,187
26,856,426
10%
Áreas Naturales Protegidas 5,563,966 3,651,674 1,912,292 6%
49,108,162 36,440,271
12,667,891
5%
Comunidades Campesinas Tituladas 1,393,874 1,393,849 24 0%
12,651,296 12,651,219
77
0%
RESERVAS TERRITORIALES A FAVOR
DE INDÍGENAS AISLADOS EN
CONTACTO INICIAL
132,744 132,744 - 0%
1,115,046 1,115,046
-
0%
PREDIOS RURALES 14,921,584 14,921,803 - 220 0%
139,279,949 139,293,068
- 13,119
0%
Humedales en la Amazonía 651,035 651,074 - 39 0%
5,646,425 5,646,648
- 223
0%
Total 132,576,039 98,657,209 33,918,830 1,185,072,221 916,602,605 268,469,615
Tierras no
categorizadas ,
42%
Comunidades Nativas
Tituladas, 23%
BPP concesionadas,
16%
BPP a ser concessionados,
13%
Áreas Naturales Protegidas,
6%

25. Thank you!