Data and Analysis on eCommerce trends in Brazil

1. Marcelo Coutinho
Associate Dean, Executive MBA
EAESP/FGV
marcelo.coutinho@fgv.br @mcoutinho

2. • GDP 2015: U$ 1.77 trillion
(9.8% of US GDP)
• Population: 207.8 million
• GDP per Capita, PPP: U$ 15,359
(US: U$ 55,836)
• Current account balance: (-)
55.8 U$ billions
– Exports of Goods and Services:
13% of GDP (US 12.6%)
– Imports of Goods and Services:
14.3% of GDP (US: 15.5%)
• Central Government Debt:
66.2% of GDP (US: 97.5%)
– Central Bank of Brazil interest
rate: 14.25%
– Inflation rate 2016 (projected):
7.2%
Data Sources: IMF, Central Bank of Brazil, 2015

3. April, 2016
Political/ Economical Crisis
• Impeachment of Dilma
(next election 2018)
• Recession (3.4% fall of
GDP in 2016, 3.8% 2015 )
• Unemployment: 11%
• R$ 3.55 = U$ 1
November, 2009
Commodities Boom
• Unemployment: 6.8%
• GDP: -0.1% (5.2% growth
in 2008, 7.5% in 2010)
• R$ 1.7 = U$ 1
September, 2013
Political Malaise
• Corruption Scandal
(Lavajato / Carwash)
• Street protests
• End of commodities
boom, slower growth
• R$ 2.256 = U$ 1

4. Income distribution
Number of Households
(000)
Social Class
Monthly Household
Income U$ (2016)
2015 2016
A 6,320 + 1,826 1,936
B1 2,800 3,371 3,338
B2 1,470 12,084 11,550
C1 820 15,278 14,821
C2 490 16,438 17,091
D/E less than U$ 490 17,785 18,026
Source: Brazilian Association of Market Research Companies (ABEP)

6. Household income (2016):
A: U$ 6,320 +
B: U$ 1,470 – U$ 6,320
C: U$ 490 – U$ 1,470
D/E: Below U$ 490
Source: Brazilian Internet Steering Committee, Brazilian Association of Market Research Companies

7. Source:PewResearchCenter,2015

8. 100.3 million of Internet users
Desktop:
83.1 mm
Mobile:
60.4 mm
Tablet:
11.8 mm
Source: Comscore, Jan 2016

10. % of total time spent on the Web (march 2016)
Other

11. 4G Coverage:
Brazil: 40.6%
US: 98%
Mobile Download Speed (Mbps):
Brazil: 18,6
US: 25,5
Source: GSMA Association

12. Mobile is responsible for 67% of the total time spent on
the Internet in Brazil (54% of retail sites*)
minutes(mm)
Source: Comscore, Jan 2016
* US: mobile is 62% of the total time spent on retail sites

14. Brazil e-Commerce Revenue, U$*
*exchange rate on december of each year
Source: e-Bit

15. eCommerce sales = 3,3% of total sales in Brazil*
* Comparing with Brazilian Institute of Statistics “restricted retail” category
** Exchange rate December 2015
*** estimates
Revenue 2015 = U$ 2.9 billion**
Revenue 2015 = U$ 3,2 billion**
Revenue 2015 = U$ 540 million***
NetshoesMercado Livre
Online Marketplace
Revenues 2015 = U$ 290 million

16. Up to U$ 790
monthly income
(Dec/2015)
U$790- U$2,070
monthly income
(Dec/2015)
More than U$2,070
monthly income
(Dec/2015)
E-commerce total orders in 2015: 106.5 million
Average Ticket 2015: U$ 121.25 (US: U$ 77.9 *)
* Average order placed on a
desktop – US Dep. Of Commerce
Source: e-Bit

17. Source: e-Bit

18. Revenue 2015
(pure ecommerce + bricks and clicks) – U$*
*Dec 2015 average
Source: Brazil Online Retail 2016 - SEBRAE (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service)

19. Online retailers: most used marketplaces
77% 36%
34%
38%
28% 10%
Source: Brazil Online Retail 2016 - SEBRAE (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service)

20. Online Retailers Segments
30% 13% 13%
10% 9% 9%
Source: Brazil Online Retail 2016 - SEBRAE (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service)

21. Best channels for online sales in Brazil
(store owners)
72% 68% 52%
44% 35% 27%
Source: Brazil Online Retail 2016 - SEBRAE (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service)

22. If Brazil follows US trends, mobile apps
will be more and more important
Source: Comscore

23. Payment Methods (as % of total sales)
Source: Brazil Online Retail 2016 - SEBRAE (Brazilian Micro and Small Business Support Service)

24. High cost of delivery is a problem (lack of
infrastructure outside main centers and theft)
Brazil rank 55th in the Logistics Performance Index of the World Bank. US is 10th.

25. Brazil is the world leader on time to prepare and
pay taxes: 2,600 hours
World Average: 261 hours
US: 175 hours
Source: World Bank

26. 54% of Brazilian buyers bought on international
web sites in 2015 (38% in 2014)
Source: e-Bit

27. Some thoughts
• Brazil is a good bet on the medium term, but we have a
bumpy ride in the next 2/3 years (social security
reform, control of government debt)
• If you are a small/medium business, your best bet is to
look for a partner (distribution) or marketplace
– Social and mobile are good tools to explore the reception
to your products
• Richest Brazilians (around 2 million households) are
intensive internet /mobile users
• A better educated generation is entering the market
and they want new levels of quality products and
services

29. Marcelo Coutinho
Associate Dean, Executive MBA
EAESP/FGV
marcelo.coutinho@fgv.br @mcoutinho