Dr. André Dantas gave a presentation about public transport and sustainable development. The presentation covered: 1) An example of Curitiba, Brazil's sustainable public transport system which is highly integrated, accessible to all, and has led to economic and social benefits for the city. 2) The importance of planning for public transport including regional, urban, transport, and public transport planning from the initial design phase. 3) The challenges of developing public transport systems that meet future constraints related to energy availability and the environment. Examples of mitigation strategies like centralized development and renewable energy systems were discussed.

1. Public Transport
and
Sustainable Development
Dr. André Dantas, Senior Lecturer in Transportation Engineering, Civil Engineering Department

2. Presentation outline
• An example of “sustainable” public transport system
• Planning process for Public Transport
• Discussion
• Brief self-introduction
• Why Public Transport (and why not)?
• Public Transport in the Transport Planning context
• Future Sustainable Development and Public Transport
Back to the long-term challenges
Energy availability, urban form and Public Transport
Renewable energy and public transport operation
• Public Transport around the world

3. -From Brazil via Japan;
-Received PhD in 2002 from the Nagoya Institute of Technology, Japan;
-GIS instructor at the University of Brasilia, Brazil;
-Public Transport Planner in the Contagem Municipality, MG, Brasil
-Traffic engineer and transportation planner in different parts of Brazil;
-Research interests include: Neuro-Geo-Temporal models for
Transportation Planning; Logistics of Emergency Events; and
Energy Constrained Transportation Systems.
Dr. André Dantas
B.E. Civil (UFMG), M.Sc. (Univ of Brasilia),
Ph.D. (Nagoya Institute of Technology)
Brief self-intro

4. WHY PUBLIC
TRANSPORT?
(and why not)

5. Once upon the time, there was
an urban area ….
…. And the urban
area was changing
and growing…
t=1
t=2
t=n
And
growing
….

6. …and the more it was growing, the
more people had complex needs
Complex
commuting
patterns all
over the city.
t=1
t=2
t=n
Central
displacements
on foot;
Travel Demand
Long-
motorized
travel from
suburbs to
CBD;

7. ?

8. Does it
sound
familiar?

9. So…
How do people participate in
activities in a complex urban
environment?
A – Walk
B – Cycle
C – Public
Transport
D - Car

10. MOST
PEOPLE
USE

11. ??

12. Is using cars a
good thing?
YES
NO

13. For those who said YES
Cars=Jobs=Economic Development=
GOOD
??

14. For those who said YES
BUT
BUT
BUT

15. For those who said YES
pollution
noise
congestion
accidents

16. Is using cars a
good thing?
YES
NO

17. For those who said NO
What can
we do?

18. Public
transport
For those who said NO

19. BUT
BUT
BUT

20. CURRENT
CHALLENGES
•Can we keep social&economic
development without a car-
based economy?
•Can we design Public Transport
Systems that meet our needs?

21. Long-term
Challenges
•Can we create a Public
Transport system that will be in
accordance with future
constraints?
•Environment
Energy

22. CURITIBA - BRAZIL

23. An example of
“sustainable”
Public
Transport

25. CURITIBA - BRAZIL

26. CURITIBA - BRAZIL

27. CURITIBA - BRAZIL

33. •Totally integrated Public Transport
System
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
•Approximately 4 mi people in the
metropolitan area
•High levels of accessibility to all
segments of society
•Single and low fare to all users

34. •Public Transport industry exporting
technology and services to many
countries
CURITIBA - BRAZIL
•4 thousand direct jobs
•Reduction in crime rates over the last 35
years
•Buoyant economy attracting various
industries

35. CURITIBA - BRAZIL
What is the
secret to
success?

36. CURITIBA - BRAZIL
PLANNING
PLANNING
PLANNING
PLANNING

37. CURITIBA - BRAZIL
Regional PLANNING
Urban PLANNING
Transport PLANNING
Public Transport PLANNING

38. CURITIBA - BRAZIL
Planning started in 1970…
Vision/objectives/goals:
•To use Public Transport System as a tool to
achieve regional and urban goals
•To encourage development along axes of the
Public Transport system
•To incrementally change towards a sustainable
transport
•To encourage gradual mode change
(cars=>bus)

39. Initial design of the Public Transportation
system
•Black Route - Corridor - Articulate bus
•Red Route - Feeding - Mini-bus
•Pink Route - Conventional - Standard
CURITIBA - BRAZIL

40. Central Area
Peripheral areas
Corridor
Attraction zones
Initial design of the Public Transportation
system
CURITIBA - BRAZIL

41. Public
Transport in
the Transport
Planning
context

42. Transportation planning and PT
•Often transportation engineers (and all others involved in the
transport industry) neglect the fact that there is much more
than considering motorized individual transportation
•Policies, strategies and plans are conceived and
implemented without taking into consideration the role of
PTB (or public transport in general)
transportation planning objectives are not
achieved

43. Transportation planning and PT
Additional travel time delays and pollution
to the whole transportation system
For example:
-A planning exercise that attempts to improve the transportation
system performance by adopting urban road pricing
-HOWEVER, actions to develop the PT system are neglected.
-THEREFORE, expected mode shifts (mostly car users changing to bus
services due to travel cost increase) are not observed.

44. Transportation planning and PT
PT planning relates to 4 main levels of transportation planning
Conceptual combination of transportation systems, land
use policies; economic incentives/disincentives,
political/implementation strategies according to
communities’ input.
Assessing specific physical configurations of transportation
systems in order to provide information to decision-
makers, based on Modelling and forecasting of future
performances
Based upon the outcomes of the Planning activities,
technology and service levels are selected according
to travel demand and cost tradeoffs
Logistic activities involved in providing the PT
Design services as well as evaluation of previous
defined targets and standards (e.g. service levels,
costs, reliability, etc).
PT operation
PT design
Planning
Policy making:

45. Policy 1
Travel Demand Modeling and
Forecasting
Improve/Implement
Public Transport System
How?
Which mode?
Where?
When?
Policy n
Improve/Implement
Private Transport
How?
Where?
When?
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
m
Evaluation
•Cost/Benefit Analysis
•Effectiveness Analysis
•Alternative Analysis
Public
Transport
Plans
Private
Transport
Plan
Transportation planning and PT

46. Diagnosis of the
system
Intervening Elements and
system characteristics
Simulate travel time
car
Estimate Ridership
Public Transport
Cost revenues
Assess Economic
Performance
Operational plan
Service Planning
Control and Evaluation
Every
5
years
Every 3 years
Every year
Operational model Selection of Technology System design
PT planning

47. CAUTION!!!!!

48. Evaluation of Transport Projects
•Involvement of international funding organizations (World Bank,
IMF, JICA, etc).
•There is always a political aspect playing a very important
role;
•Big projects such as Subways, Light rail, etc are extremely
influenced by commercial lobby.
•Tendency in conceiving transportation corridors using high-capacity
modes
•Benefits, costs and impacts (land use-transportation system
interactions) changes are correctly computed.
•In most cases, subsidies are used to reach economic feasibility.
•Be aware and concerned about over-estimation of projected travel
demand

49. Public
Transport in
around the
world

50. Japan

51. Nagoya, Japan
Road (90 min.)
Toll road (30 min.)
JR(70 min.)
Bullet train (15 min.)
Bus 1 (100 min.)
Bus 2(120 min.)
Toyohashi
Nagoy
a

52. Nagoya, Japan

53. Nagoya, Japan

54. Nagoya, Japan

55. London, UK

56. Munich, Germany

57. Munich, Germany

58. Munich, Germany

59. Bangkok, Thailand

60. Beijing, China

61. Beijing, China

62. Beijing, China

63. Amazon Region, Brazil

64. Future
Sustainable
Development
and Public
Transport

65. Long-term
Challenges
•Can we create a Public
Transport system that will be in
accordance with future
constraints?
•Environment
Energy

66. Peak Oil  Probability
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125
BillionBarrelsperYear
History
Mean
USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery
Ultimate Recovery
Probability BBls
-------------------- ---------
Low (95 %) 2,248
Mean (expected value) 3,003
High (5 %) 3,896
Note: U.S. volumes were added to the USGS foreign volumes to obtain world totals.
7.8% Growth
1963-1973
2% Growth
& Decline
High Prices Can
Affect Demand
4.1% Decline
1979-1983
2016
Annual Production with 2 Percent Annual Growth & Decline
40
30
35
25
20
15
10
5
0
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 21002075 2125
BillionsofBarrelsperyear
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probabilty(%)
Peak Oil
5% Reduction
7.5% Reduction
10% Reduction
15% Reduction
20% Reduction
Fuel Shortage

67. Probability  Consequences
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Probabilty(%)
Peak Oil
5% Reduction
7.5% Reduction
10% Reduction
15% Reduction
20% Reduction
•Extremely high transport
costs
•Less energy available
•No replacement for petroleum
•Few will afford cars
•Less mobility and
accessibility
•Changes in life-style/activities

68. WHAT CAN WE
DO ABOUT
THESE LONG
TERM
CHALLENGES?

69. Risk Analysis
• Identify Risks
• Evaluate Impacts
• Mitigation
Measures
• Implementation

70. Risk assessment
R = risk an oil crisis/shortage event affecting travel/activities
P= probability of oil crisis/shortage event
IPR *
I = impact of an oil crisis/shortage event quantifies
High
Med.
Low
High Med. Low
I
P
Risk scale
High
Medium
Low

71. Risk Assessment
 Impact
1


IPT
IPT
I After
Before
Tbefore= travel behaviour before an oil crisis/shortage event
Tafter= travel behaviour after an oil crisis/shortage event
IP = importance factor of trips to participate in activities

72. Energy Constrained Activity
Model
Travel/Activity
(Tbefore)
RECATS Model
Energy Constraint
(EC)
EC≥Ebefore?
Modify
Travel/Activity
(Tafter)
Constrained Travel/Activity
Calculate Risk
Yes
No
(Ebefore)
Energy consumption
Oil crisis/shortage
Probability (P)

73. Case Study, Christchurch 2051
What are the risks?

74. Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Business As Usual Car Trips Lost
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess
0
1
2
3
4
5
x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance
TripsperDay(10
5
)
Car
Bus
Walk
19% 8% 7%
High Risk=133

75. Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option A – Centralized
development
Car Trips LostModerate Risk=104
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess
0
1
2
3
4
5
x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance
TripsperDay(10
5
)
Car
Bus
Walk
14% 9% 7%

76. Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option B – Hybrid-Corridor
based development Car Trips LostLow Risk=66
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess
0
1
2
3
4
5
x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance
TripsperDay(10
5
)
Car
Bus
Walk
23% 8% 8%

77. Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option C – Urban sprawl
Car based development Car Trips LostVery High Risk=213
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance
TripsperDay(10
5
)
Car
Bus
Walk
100% 28% 6%

78. Case Study, Christchurch 2051
URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES
Option B – Hybrid-Corridor
Car Trips LostLow Risk=66
Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess
0
1
2
3
4
5
x 10
5
Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance
TripsperDay(10
5
)
Car
Bus
Walk
23% 8% 8%
Public Transport’s role?

79. Renewable Sources
Renewable energy and public
transport operation
Fossil Sources
Supply
GWh
Need More
Energy

80. Is it possible to re-engineer the system according to
ENERGY CONSTRAINTS?
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

81. City of 340,000 people
Land Area of 450 km2
300,000 Cars
Medium Density City
Reasonable Bus System
Transportation Requirements
Christchurch
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

82. The Orbiter
11 % of all bus trips
Patronage of over 600,000 per year
www.ecan.govt.nz
Energy Requirement
Transportation System
18 Buses
1.5 hour circuit
10 minute intervals
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

83. Orbiter Route
www.ecan.govt.nz
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

84. • Independent Grid Required
for our electric bus system
Electricity Grid in South Island
70% Hydroelectricity
But…
Grid is at capacity
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

85. 0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Time of Year [Month]
AverageIrradiation[kWh/m2/day]
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
WindSpeed[m/s]
Solar Wind
Wind & Solar 2003
www.earthday.net
Renewable Energy Resources
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

86. Performance of Existing Technologies
Based on Actual Performance Specifications
for Available Products
Wind Turbine: 1 MW
DE-Wind D6
www.earthday.net
Solar PV: 8% Electric System Efficiency
UniSolar
www.auroville.org
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

87. Electric Trolley Bus
Orbiter
Orbiter
•25 kW Motor
•40 km/hr max speed
•< 0.5% Elevation Change
•Overhead Electric Power
•Lightweight Frame
•32 Passengers
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

88. Alternative Concepts generated
 Electric Trolley – Fixed Route, Orbiter Schedule
 Dedicated Electric Energy System
 Wind and Solar Energy Resources
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

89. Orbiter schedule
is not always met
Wind and Solar Power Trolley Service
Typical Day
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

90.  Technically Feasible
 Economically Impossible
 Environmentally Critical
Result: Full Service Met
99.1% of Orbiter Schedule Met:
• 2 Wind Turbines
• 3 x 200kW Pump/Generators
• 106 m3 reservoir
• 100 m head
Wind Power +
Pump-Storage
Hydro
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

91. 1MW Wind Turbine 1MW Wind Turbine
& 20,000m2 PV
65,000m2 PV
3 * 1MW Wind
Turbines
Design Concepts
$
$$$
$$$$$$
$$$$$$$$$
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

92. Service Factor
1MW Wind Turbine 61%
65,000 m2 PV 59%
1MW Wind Turbine
+ 20,000 m2 PV
86%
3 x1MW Wind Turbines 80%
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

93. We reach a considerable number of trolley trips
But not replacement of the Fossil Fuel schedule
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

94. Service vs. Investment
$
%
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

95. Modern public transportation systems are moving
to real-time scheduling
Flexible – Real-Time Scheduling
Renewable energy and public
transport operation

96. Dr. Susan Krumdieck
Susan.Krumdieck@Canterbury.Ac.Nz
Advanced Energy and Material Systems Lab
Interdisciplinary research effort to develop the
theory, models, information, ideas, technology and
planning tools for New Zealand to begin the
journey toward a Sustainable Civilization.
Dr. Andre Dantas
Andre.Dantas@Canterbury.Ac.Nz