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Experience Vlerick Day - Wouter De Maeseneire
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FINANCE IN THE
NEWS JUNE, 2013
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School USUALLY PEOPLE DO NOT LIKE FINANCE So I need to start with telling them about appealing and hotly debated topics like… 2
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School Largest company ever according to market cap! 3 | Jump of $ 50 bio!!
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School Do you see the link? 5 |
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School #experiencevlerick8 http://business.time.com
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School IMPORTANCE OF SOUND FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT What is the goal of a company? Liquidity Profitability Solvency Let me prove this General Motors, Eastman Kodak, Lehman Brothers, Enron, Worldcom, Chrysler,… Nokia, Sony, TomTom,… 9
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School MGM FILES FOR BANKRUPTCY, BUT JAMES BOND MAY RETURN IN 2012 "New James Bond films may be released every second year starting in November 2012, MGM said. It aims to own 50 percent of Bond 23, due out that year, with an equal partner paying all of the production costs, it said. Later Bond movies would be wholly owned and funded by MGM..." 11
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School THE HOBBIT 12 "MGM estimated its total obligations to "The Hobbit" are $265 million to $275 million. The company said it is looking for "a third party" to fund those obligations. Its investment stake would be $40 million while the rest would be funded by a lender..."
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School LARGEST BANKRUPTCIES 18
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School STOCK MARKET EVOLUTION (S&P 500) #experiencevlerick19
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School STOCK MARKET EVOLUTION (EUROSTOXX 50) #experiencevlerick20
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School TENTATIVE SIGNS OF RECOVERY: REAL GDP GROWTH (EUROSTAT) 21
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School HEADS OF EUROPE BACK BROAD PLAN TO RESCUE GREECE (NEW YORK TIMES - JULY 21, 2011) 23 The pact, negotiated in Brussels, is part of a rescue package of 109 billion euros, or $157 billion, for Greece, the most troubled economy in the euro zone. It will force many investors in Greek debt to accept some losses on their bonds. Under the plan, Greece would receive assistance in several ways. Holders of short-term obligations would be able to swap their notes for debt with longer maturities and backed by high-rated bonds. An organization that includes most major European banks said its members would accept the offer and expected 90 percent of all Greek bonds to be exchanged. Separately, officials said that the terms of the aid package from Europe to Greece would be eased, with maturities lengthened to 15 years from 7.5 years, at an interest rate of a quite low 3.5 percent. The euro zone leaders would give wide-ranging new powers to the region’s rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility, by allowing it to buy government bonds on the secondary market and to help recapitalize banks — which might be needed when they write down the value of their Greek bonds.
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School SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS –NOVEMBER, 28 2011 26
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School 15.000.000.000.000 USD!!! http://usdebt.kleptocracy.us27
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School S&P DOWNGRADES U.S. TO AA+ - WE'RE TIED WITH BELGIUM! Officials at ratings firm Standard & Poor's said U.S. Treasury debt no longer deserved to be considered among the safest investments in the world. S&P removed for the first time the triple-A rating the U.S. has held for 70 years, saying the budget deal recently brokered in Washington didn't do enough to address the gloomy long-term picture for America's finances. It downgraded U.S. debt to AA+, a score that ranks below Liechtenstein. 28 Reaction of commentator: “On the positive side, we are now equal with Belgium, so we should be getting an overdue upgrade to our beer and chocolate.” http://seekingalpha.com August 6, 2011
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School SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS Abu Dhabi Investment Authority + 500 bio $ China Investment Corporation 300 bio $ Kuwait Investment Authority 250 bio $ Hong Kong Monetary Authority 173 bio $ Qatar Investment Authority (Volkswagen) Singapore Investment Corporation Many of the new economies’ state funds invested heavily in American and European firms during crisis 31
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School ASIA, MIDDLE EAST AND THE BRICS Chinese Shandong Heavy Industry buys Ferretti (Riva, – 374 mio euro) from Candover (PE fund) Brasil > UK Rosneft > ExxonMobil Record results: Ferrari, Porsche, De Beers, LVMH, Rolls Royce,… 32
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School FACEBOOK IPO #experiencevlerick42
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School FACEBOOK IPO Amount to be raised: $ 5 bio Total Valuation: $75-100 bio Dual-class shares Zuckerberg has 18% ownership but 57% of voting rights At market value of $100 bio: 845 mio user $118/user Revenues: $ 3.71 bio P/S= 27 Profit: $ 1 bio P/E= 100 43
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School B-POST FIRST IPO IN BRUSSELS IN MORE THAN THREE YEARS #experiencevlerick47 Exit of CVC (25%-30% shares) CVC will keep 15% Belgian government: 50% + 1 share Value estimted around €3 bio Syndicate of banks responsible for IPO: JP Morgan, Nomura, BNP Paribas Fortis, Morgan Stanley, UBS, KBC, ING, Belfius and Royal Bank of Canada High dividend yield (6-8%) 26000 FTE 10.5 letters a day
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School TOP IPOS IN BRUSSELS AND THEIR PERFORMANCE #experiencevlerick48 Source: De Tijd
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School HOLLYWOOD DISCOVERS CROWDFUNDING #experiencevlerick49 CANNES, France--The Cannes Film Festival can sometimes make room for someone a little different. Someone, say, like Jeremy Saulnier, a little- known director who, at 36, has used a little pluck and plenty of Kickstarter to defy the stereotypes of the world's most prestigious (and expensive) festival. Thanks to the democratizing advantages of crowdfunding, Saulnier is showing an alternative path to the normally elite precincts of the Cannes Film Festival. Saulnier’s film "Blue Ruin" isn't like most here, which are financed lavishly by foreign distributors, Hollywood studios or government film funds. Saulnier and his wife liquidated their retirement accounts, refinanced their home and ran up well over a $100,000 in credit-card debt to make the movie. But the real key came when, needing tens of thousands of dollars to trigger cast and crew deals, Saulnier put his project on Kickstarter. He raised the necessary $35,000 in a matter of weeks.
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School RAISING DEBT: SOME RECENT BOND ISSUES ArcelorMittal (BBB-): $3 bio: 3.75% (5 year), 5.50% (10 years), 6.75% (30 years) Jaguar Land Rover (B+): $1.6 bio (8.125%) 7 years AB Inbev (A-): € 750 mio (4%!!!) 10 years Hyatt hotels (BBB): $250.0 (3.875% -5 years) and $250.0 (5.375% - 10 years) 52
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School FINANCING AT LOW COST Oct 2010: Wal-Mart: 750 mio $, 3-year, 0.866% (30 bp over treasuries) Microsoft: 1 bio $, 3-year, 0.931% (25 bp over treasuries) Long terms (end of 2010) JP Morgan Chase: 5.5%, 30 years Goldman Sachs: 6.125%, 50 years Rabobank: 5.8%, 100 years 53
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School ! #experiencevlerick57
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School CASH GIANTS S&P500 STOXX600 #experiencevlerick58 Source: De Tijd
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School WHO MASTERS THE FIELD OF FINANCE? FORBES: World’s Billionaires 69 Rank Name Citizenship Net Worth ($bil) 1 Carlos Slim Helu Mexico 53.5 2 William Gates III United States 53.0 3 Warren Buffett United States 47.0 4 Mukesh Ambani India 29.0 5 Lakshmi Mittal India 28.7 6 Lawrence Ellison United States 28.0 7 Bernard Arnault France 27.5 8 Eike Batista Brazil 27.0 9 Amancio Ortega Spain 25.0 10 Karl Albrecht Germany 23.5
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School INVESTMENTS Best NASDAQ performers since December 2000, annual return: Monster Beverage: 60% Apple: 44% Priceline.com: 36% Amazon.com: 17% eBay: 11% 72
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School FIRMS IN TROUBLE / BANKRUPTCIES / CH11 Philips considers selling TV business Saab Eastman Kodak American Airlines Baseball club LA Dodgers Chapter 11 Borders (second largest brick-and-mortar bookseller) Chapter 11 Closing 200 shops Focus on Borders.com 76
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School JOB CUTS ANNOUNCED IN LAST MONTHS HSBC: 30,000; Lloyds: 15,000; UBS: 3,500 Bank of America: 40,000 Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan: 1,000 Unicredit: 5,200 jobs RIM/Blackberry: 2,000; Yahoo: 2,000 Philips: 4,500; Nokia Siemens Networks: 17,000 Astra-Zeneca: 7,300 / Novartis: 2,000 jobs / Roche: 4,500 jobs Pfizer Patents expire, eg Lipitor (peak sales: 12.9 bio/year; cumulative 117 bio $) Procter&Gamble: 5,700 American Airlines: 17,000 77
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MISCELLANEOUS
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School TOP COMPANIES: HIGHEST PROFITS 2010 82 Rank Company Profits 2010 ($ millions) 1 Nestlé 32,843.0 2 Gazprom 31,894.5 3 Exxon Mobil 30,460.0 4 Industrial & Commercial Bank of China 24,398.2 5 Royal Dutch Shell 20,127.0 6 China Construction Bank 19,920.3 7 AT&T 19,864.0 8 Petrobras 19,184.0 9 Chevron 19,024.0 10 Microsoft 18,760.0
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School TOP COMPANIES: MONEY LOSERS Source: CNNMoney.com83 Rank Company Loss 2009 ($ millions) 1 American International Group 99,289 2 Fannie Mae 58,707 3 Freddie Mac 50,119 4 General Motors 30,860 5 Citigroup 27,684 6 Merrill Lynch 27,612 7 ConocoPhillips 16,998 8 Ford Motor 14,672 9 Time Warner 13,402 10 CBS 11,673
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School CORPORATE GOVERNANCE Corporate governance, VW: Ursula Piëch (55) joins VW Board – Fernand Piëch is 74 Porsche-Piëch family has 5/20 seats New York Times: cumulative profit last 4 years: 3 mio euro, CEO Janet Robinson got sacked and got golden parachute of 23.7 mio dollar Tim Cooks made 378 mio $ in 2011 (Jobs 2006: 647 mio $) Bettencourt (89) leaves l’Oréal Board 84
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School ACCOUNTING FRAUD Olympus Japanese company, prefer to hide fraud than to lose face/reputation Decades of manipulated figures CEO Michael Woodford was critical, got sacked -29% (maximum Tokyo allows) on announcement Issues regarding consultancy fees, especially regarding M&A, payments to Cayman islands,… Due diligence, corporate governance: underdeveloped, lack of transparency (keiretsu – cross-participations), often no independent directors 85
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School JÉRÔME KERVIEL Source: Financial Times87 Kerviel found guilty in SocGen scandal Jérôme Kerviel, the rogue trader, was sentenced to three years in prison and ordered to pay €4.9bn ($6.75bn) in damages to Société Général for taking risks that could have led to the collapse of his former employer, France’s second biggest bank.
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School FEEL LIKE SOME MORE? Executive Master Class Corporate Finance (Fall 2013) Executive Master Class Controllership (spring 2014) Financial Management for Non-Financial Managers (September 2013) #experiencevlerick90
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