Decision Analysis in Venture Capital Workshop, DAAG 2019
1. Page 1 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
DA in VC Workshop
6 March 2019
Clint Korver
clint@uluventures.com
2. Page 2 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Goals & Intros
VC Decision Challenges
Ulu’s VC Decision-Making Framework
Break
Power Law Portfolio Construction
Discussion
3. Page 3 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Workshop Goals
Better understand venture capital
Understand Ulu’s decision making framework
Understand Ulu’s design choices
Appreciate dynamics of Power Law in portfolio construction
Take away an insight or idea to apply to your business
4. Page 4 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Ulu Ventures Overview
Seed stage, enterprise IT focused, venture fund in Silicon Valley
2 general partners, 100+ investments, 10+ years in business
Built on shared values – e.g. relationships not transactions
Powered by decision analysis
Diversity as an investment thesis
Ulu goal: a venture industry which funds merit, not bias
5. Page 5 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Clint Korver Overview
Co-Founder, Ulu Ventures
Co-Founder, 4 Silicon Valley startups
25 years DA practitioner
Ron Howard PhD Student
Taught entrepreneurship @ Stanford
6. Page 6 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Goals & Intros
VC Decision Challenges
Ulu’s VC Decision-Making Framework
Break
Power Law Portfolio Construction
Discussion
7. Page 7 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
8. Page 8 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
9. Page 9 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
VC industry funds future, but operates in past
9% of VCs are women*
15% of VC $$ to teams with a female founder*
* www.allraise.org – Home Page
2% of VCs are Black or Hispanic**
1% of VC $$ to teams with a Black or Hispanic founder***
** techcrunch.com - “Here’s a Detailed Breakdown of Racial and Gender Diversity Data Across US Venture Capital Firms”
***www.forbes.com – “founders-and-venture-capital-racism-is-costing-us-billions”
10. Page 10 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Venture decisions are difficult
Challenges
Uncertainty
Ego
Biases
11. Page 11 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Decision best practices can help
Challenges Best Practices
Uncertainty Decision Analysis
Ego Double–loop Learning
Biases Diversity
12. Page 12 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Key drivers of venture returns
Sourcing
Selecting
Supporting
Portfolio Construction
*Based on Harvard, Stanford, U Chicago, & U British Colombia research which surveyed 885 institutional VCs at 681 firms. Findings published in 2016 research paper “How
Do Venture Capitalists Make Decisions?”
Most important
driver of returns*
23%
49%
27%
Not Asked
13. Page 13 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Ulu’s annual investing pipeline
Hit Ulu’s Radar
Trusted
Sources
Outreach
Demo Days
Unreferred
3,000
1st
Meeting
300
2nd
Meeting
60
DA
30
Fund
20
14. Page 14 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Early stage VC IRR highly variable
1 Yr 3 Yrs 5 yrs 15 Yrs 25 Yrs
US Early Stage VC 21% 9% 17% 11% 44%
US Late Stage VC 22% 10% 12% 12% 12%
S&P 500 18% 17% 14% 10% 10%
*Cambridge Associates, As of September 30, 2018
15. Page 15 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Goals & Intros
VC Decision Challenges
Ulu’s VC Decision-Making Framework
Break
Power Law Portfolio Construction
Discussion
16. Page 16 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Goal: quality conversation leading to clarity of action
Conversations with entrepreneurs & investment partners
Across 300 1st meetings, 60 2nd meetings, …
Fast, principled ‘No’ 280/year
Robust, unbiased ‘Yes’ 20/year
17. Page 17 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Repeatable, turbocharged decision making process
1. Initial Rubric 2. Market Map 3. Risk Assessment
4. Uncertainty Ranges 5. Sensitivity Analysis 6. Risk/Return Calculation
TAMCust
Segment
Unit
Sales
Price
• Market
• Product
• Team
• Financial
High
Base
Low
No
No
Early
Stage
Success
Cross
Chasm
Team Market Fit
+ ++ +
18. Page 18 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Idea: Cheaper loans for students from low risk schools
Founding team: 5 Stanford GSB, 1 U of Michigan
Market Evidence: Stanford business school partnership
Revenue: none
Funding: none
Case study
19. Page 19 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Scores well on Rubric
Ulu Fit
Market
Oppt’y
Team /
Market Fit
Team
Values
Product
Financial
Viability
Super
Powers
+ ++ + + + 0 0
• Seed Stage
• Enterprise
IT
• Diversity
• Silicon
Valley /
Stanford
• TAM
• Traction
• Breaking in
• GTM
• Domain
expertise
• Complete
team
• Fit for
early
challenges
Scoring Key
++ outstanding
+ stands out
0 neutral
- poor
- - showstopper
• Authentic
Voice
• Ethics
• Character
• User
Engagement
• Learning
Orientation
• Enterprise
Appreciation
• Whole
Product
• Terms
• Capital
Needs
• Biz Model
• Exit
Possibilities
• Competition
• Network
Effects
20. Page 20 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Technology Adoption Life Cycle Model
VISIONARIES
PRAGMATISTS CONSERVATIVES SKEPTICS
(Early Majority) (Late Majority) (Laggards)
THE
CHASM
TECHIES
(Innovators)
(Early Adopters)
From Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore.
21. Page 21 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Simplified to key life stage transition points
Mass Market
Success
Cross
Chasm
Early Stage
Success
Adapted from Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore.
22. Page 22 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Life stage structure from technology adoption model
No
No
Early
Stage
Success
Cross
Chasm
Mass
Market
Niche
Only
23. Page 23 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Life stage risk assessment
Early
Stage
Success
Market
Product
Financial
Working Product
Core Tech Team
Team
Paying Visionary Customers
Compelling Reasons to Buy
Viable Business Model
Sufficient Runway
Capable CEO
Team Experience
100%
90%
100%
100%
90%
Cross
Chasm
Market
Product
Team
Financial
90%
70%
80%
45%
90%
Healthy Gross Margins
Sufficient Runway
Crit Mass Pragmatic Cust’s
Proven Value Prop
Predictable Alumni Sales Cycle
Whole Product
Complete Team
Healthy Team Dynamics
Mass
Market
Success
Team
Market
Product
Financial
Proven in Mult Niches
Marquee Customers
No Adverse Gov’t Regs
Scalable Product
Product Dev Continuity
Healthy Net Margins
Execution Track Record
Board of Directors
No Blow Ups
50%
80%
80%
26%
80%
24. Page 24 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Life stage success probabilities
0.26
0.74
No
0.45
0.550.9
0.1
10%
30%
50%
10%
100%
No
Early
Stage
Success
Cross
Chasm
Mass
Market
Niche
Only
25. Page 25 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Market position assessments
Distinction Assessment Notes
# Mass Market
Competitors
King
Prince
Serf
Adapted from The Gorilla Game: Picking Winners in High Technology by Geoffrey Moore.
10%
1 King
SoFi is no more or less likely to be king
1/10 = 10%
30%
3 Princes
SoFi is no more or less likely to be prince
3/10 = 10%
60% 60% = 100% - 10% - 30%
10 (Typical)
5 (Consolidated)
20 (Fragmented)
26. Page 26 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Life stage success probabilities
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.26
0.74
No
0.45
0.550.9
0.1
Market Share
3%
6%
1%
30%
50%
10%
100%
No
Early
Stage
Success
Cross
Chasm
Mass
Market
Niche
Only
Challenger
Market Leader
Also Ran
60% chance of failure
40% chance of success
27. Page 27 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Market Map
PWMOIC
Enterprise
Exit Value
Ownership
%
Investment
AmountDilution
Valuation
& Terms
Exit
Multiple
EarningsRevenue
Market
Share
Total
Addressable
Market
Net
Margin
A Tier TAM
(<1%)
A Loans
Addressable
$ (< 1%)
Gross
Margin
A Loan
Footprint $
% A Loans
Addressable
Origination
Fees
Gain on
Sales
%
Addressable
B Tier TAM
(1 – 1.5%)
Adjacent
Markets
Alumni
Acquisition
Costs
Tuition
Growth
Velocity
of Capital
Spread
Base
Spread
Community
Experience
Delta
Alumni
Participation
(% dollars)
B’s
Converted
to A’s
Social
Thesis
Delta
Coupon
vs <1%
B Loan
Footprint $
B Loans
Addressable
$
% B Loans
Addressable
Int’l TAM
Int’l Loans
($B)
Loan
Spread
Capital
Needs
Value
Decision
Uncertainty
Calculation
Influence
Key
Evocative
28. Page 28 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Tablet Adoption in Higher Education
by 2015
Ranges structure intuition
Precisely Wrong Approximately Right
High 90%
Base 75%
Low 60%
Dilution
70%
29. Page 29 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Market Share analysis
Distinctions Assessments Notes
# MM Competitors 10 (Typical) 5 (Consolidated) – 20 (Fragmented)
King share
Princes share
Serfs share
Share MM Players
Share Niche Players
SoFi Niche Share
Adapted from The Gorilla Game: Picking Winners in High Technology by Geoffrey Moore.
35% 1 * 35% = 35% of total share
10% 3 * 10% = 30% of total share
3% 6 * 3% = 18% of total share
83% 35% + 30% + 18% = 83%
17% 100% - 83% = 17%
5% Back calculate based on revenue
30. Page 30 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Sensitivity analysis
Probability Weighted MOIC
0 10 20 30 40 50
Base Value
Base Value = 16x
Mass Market Share 3% 30% 10%
Exit Multiple (Earnings) 5 20 10
Dilution 80% 50% 67%
Gain on Sales 2% 9% 6%
Conversion of B to A 0% 100% 30%
Int'l Addressable 0% 50% 25%
Net Margin 35% 65% 50%
Adjacent Markets 10% 80% 40%
Tuition Growth 0% 10% 5%
Int'l Loan Footpring $B 10 50 30
A Addressable 40% 100% 80%
Pre-money Valuation ($M) 5 3 4
Niche Market Share 3% 15% 5%
Velocity of Capital turns/yr 0 3 1
B Addressable as B 0% 40% 10%
31. Page 31 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
passed Ulu’s 10x PWMOIC threshold
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.26
0.74
No
0.45
0.550.9
0.1
Market Share
3%
6%
1%
10%
50%
10%
100%
No
Early
Stage
Success
Cross
Chasm
Mass
Market
Niche
Only
Challenger
Market Leader
Also Ran
5.2
3.0
5.2
$3012
$9035
$904
Enterprise
Exit Value
($M) PWMOIC
2.4$75
$0
$0
0
0
$535
$1606
$161
Revenue
($M)
$27
$0
$0
15.8PWMOIC:
164
49
492
MOIC
8
0
0
*Probability Weighted Multiple on Invested Capital
32. Page 32 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Ulu invested
Raised over $2B
$547M Revenue, $126M Profit in 2017* – WSJ 2.9.18
$3B in refinancing / quarter*
Last financing valued company at > $4B
What happened
*Wall Street Journal: February 2, 2018.
33. Page 33 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Simplifications make analysis tractable
Snapshot in time (no time series)
Optimizing to understand outlier potential
Revenue only (no costs / profits)
With high margin business models, revenue is core challenge.
Capture time, cost, profit through life stage risk assessments
Timing: do you run out of money before accomplishing fundable milestones
Costs: ability to raise enough capital, dilution
Profits: unit economics / margin, robustness of business model
34. Page 34 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Why 10x PWMOIC?
Why Multiple on Invested Capital (MOIC) and Not IRR?
IRR expensive to assess and model
10x PWMOIC generates great IRR within reasonable time frames
Why Probability Weighted (PW)
Assessing, pricing, managing risk is core challenge of venture
Why 10x
Arbitrary. Lets the right number of companies through for Ulu.
Consistency in comparing investments is most important
PWMOIC does not capture risk aversion
Descriptively, most investors have a low tolerance for risk
A large portfolio allows Ulu to act as risk neutral decision maker
35. Page 35 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Ulu’s portfolio
36. Page 36 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Goals & Intros
VC Decision Challenges
Ulu’s VC Decision-Making Framework
Break
Power Law Portfolio Construction
Discussion
37. Page 37 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Goals & Intros
VC Decision Challenges
Ulu’s VC Decision-Making Framework
Break
Power Law Portfolio Construction
Discussion
38. Page 38 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
• Seed
• Enterprise IT / Smart Data
• Silicon Valley / Stanford /
Diversity
• Top tier performance
• Seed to series A partner
• 66+
• Small
• n/a
•10x
PWMOIC
Portfolio decisions should be made in context
• Size (# of investments)
• Reserves ($’s held for follow-ons)
• Mix (stage, sector, geo, timing, risk)
Investments
• Initial investment decisions
• Follow-on investment decisions
• Stage
• Sector
• Geography
• LP Expectations
• Entrepreneur Brand
Promise
Strategy
Portfolio
Construction
39. Page 39 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Alternatives
(What you can do)
# of investments
Reserve Strategy
Mix - sector, stage...
Superior Returns
Serve Entrepreneurs
Operational Efficiency
Decision basis for VC portfolio construction
Estimated risk &
return of investments
Ecosystem Potential
Team Capabilities
Macroeconomic
Conditions
Information
(What you know)
Values
(What you want)
40. Page 40 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Portfolio Construction Decision #1: Portfolio Size
How many investments in your fund?
Venture firm typically raises a new fund every few years
Each fund has a 3-5 year investment window to make new investments
Funds last 10+ years
Just making follow-on investments in years 5 – 10+
41. Page 41 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Standard Micro VC
Ulu Portfolio Construction Difference
Ulu
I Can Pick Winners
I Can Make Winners
10-20 Investments
Normal Distribution
No one Can Pick Winners
I Can Help, Maybe
60+ investments
Power Law Distribution
42. Page 42 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Early stage returns follow a power law distribution
ChanceofOccurrence
Returns
Early Stage Returns
Power Law Distribution
Late Stage Returns
Normal (ish) Distribution
43. Page 43 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Dramatic Early Stage Mean / Median Gap
Mean
Returns
Median
Returns
Early Stage VC 22% 5.6%
Late Stage VC 12% 10.7%
Burgiss Data 1983 – 2Q2017 US
Courtesy of Virdis Investments
Early Stage = Series B and earlier
44. Page 44 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Outliers drive industry profitability
1Cambridge Associates Research Note: The 15% Frontier. 2016. Based on data from 2004 – 2012.
2Horsley Bridge data as reported via A16Z blog post: https://a16z.com/2015/06/08/performance-data-and-the-babe-ruth-effect-in-venture-capital/
2.5%
Of venture deals generate
nearly 100% of industry profits1
4.5%
Of capital generates 60% of
fund profits in top tier funds2
Average VC outlier rate: 2%
Top Tier VC outlier rate: 4.5%
45. Page 45 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
VC Unicorn-Spotting Rate
46. Page 46 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Chance of at Least One Oultier
Portfolio Size (# of Investments)
Good VC (2%)
Average VC outlier chance: 18% with 10, 64% with 50
47. Page 47 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Chance of at Least One Oultier
Portfolio Size (# of Investments)
Top Tier VC (4.5%)
Good VC (2%)
Top tier VC outlier chance: 37% with 10, 90% with 50
48. Page 48 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Luck vs. skill
Average VC, 10 investments => 18% chance of at least one outlier
Out of 200 average VC firms with 10 investments in portfolio
– 29 will look top tier, with one outlier
– 6 will look like geniuses, with two outliers
– 1 will look like a super genius, with three outliers
They are equally average. Some just got lucky.
How can you tell the difference between luck and skill?
49. Page 49 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Smart portfolio construction
#
Investments
Skill Level
Chance of
Outlier /
Investment
1 Fund
with
Outlier*
3 Funds
with Outliers*
10 Top Tier 4.5% 37% 5%
50 Average 2% 63% 25%
Can help an average VC outperform a top tier VC
50. Page 50 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Smart portfolio construction also helps Top Tier VCs
#
Investments
Skill Level
Chance of
Outlier /
Investment
1 Fund
with
Outlier*
3 Funds
with Outliers*
10 Top Tier 4.5% 37% 5%
50 Top Tier 4.5% 90% 73%
Any outlier, regardless of fund size, is a winner
51. Page 51 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Portfolio Construction Decision #2: Reserve Strategy
How much of your fund do you reserve for follow-on investments?
Typical range: 1x – 3x initial investment
$100m fund with reserves of 2x initial investment
– $33m invested in initial round
– $67m reserved for follow-on investments in those same startups
Ulu’s reserves are 0.2x initial investment
52. Page 52 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Standard Micro VC
Ulu Portfolio Construction Difference
Ulu
Large Reserves: Double
down on winners
I Can Pick Winners
I Can Make Winners
10-20 Investments
No one Can Pick Winners
I Can Help, Maybe
60+ investments
Small Reserves: buy
max ownership upfront
53. Page 53 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Which reserve strategy will outperform?
Seed Series A Series B Series C
Funding Rounds 50 30 20 12
Invest / Co $m 0.26 0.26 0.66 1.32
Total Invest $m 13 8 13 16
Double
Down
All
Upfront
Seed Series A Series B Series C
Funding Rounds 50 30 20 12
Invest / Co $m 1 0 0 0
Total Invest $m 50 0 0 0
54. Page 54 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Ownership dynamics for All Upfront strategy.
Seed
Investment $m 0.26
Pre Money $m 6
Raise $m 2
Post Money $m 8
Dilution
Ownership % 3.3%
Series A
0.26
20
8
28
0%
3.3%
Series B
0.66
75
20
95
0%
3.3%
Series C
1.32
250
40
290
0%
3.3%
8.9%
7.0%
6.1%
12.5%
COMPANYOWNERSHIP
3.3% 3.3%3.3% 3.3%
55. Page 55 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
COMPANYOWNERSHIP
Ownership dynamics for All Upfront strategy.
Seed
Investment $m 1
Pre Money $m 6
Raise $m 2
Post Money $m 8
Dilution
Ownership % 12.5%
Series A
0
20
8
28
29%
8.9%
Series B
0
75
20
95
21%
7.0%
Series C
0
250
40
290
14%
6.1%
8.9%
7.0%
6.1%
12.5%
56. Page 56 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
All Upfront doubles ownership vs. Double Down.
12.5%
8.9%
7.0%
6.1%
3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%
COMPANYOWNERSHIP
Investment / round ($k) Seed Series A Series B Series C Total
All Upfront 1,000 0 0 0 1
Double Down 260 260 660 1,320 2.5
57. Page 57 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Seed Series A Series B Series C
Pre Money $m 6 80 900 4500
Raise $m 2 20 100 500
Post Money $m 8 100 1000 5000
Dilution 20% / 0% 10% / 0% 10% / 10%
All Upfront 1,000 0 0 0
Double Down 260 650 3,250 0
All Upfront is even better with home runs.
12.5%
10.0%
9.0%
8.1%
3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 2.9%
Vs. 6.1%
Vs. 3.3%
58. Page 58 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
When “should” a VC make a follow-on investment
Mispriced follow-on round. Market undervalues progress.
Large fund unable to fit capital in early stage rounds
Your bad at picking - low follow-on rates
Your bad at pricing - small price increases
59. Page 59 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Think differently in a power law world
Normal Power Law
Upside Capped Uncapped
Diligence focus Fat part of distribution Upside tail
Key Indicator Loss Rate Chance of Outlier
Troubled company
Spend time to
minimize losses
Take losses to
minimize time
More investments Same mean Higher mean
60. Page 60 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Agenda
Goals & Intros
VC Decision Challenges
Ulu’s VC Decision-Making Framework
Break
Power Law Portfolio Construction
Discussion
61. Page 61 Ó 2019 Ulu Ventures. All rights reserved.
Ulu’s template models on GitHub
https://github.com/ulu-ventures/VCDA
Truthy.xlsm
– Same template Ulu uses. Need to change Market Size variables.
– Built in tornado & decision tree functionality
VentureDeal.xlsm
– Simplified template. Market Size is one input with a range
– Built in tornado & decision tree functionality