SlideShare uma empresa Scribd logo
1 de 30
The Heisei Era: Radical Change or
Prolonged Sclerosis?
Temple University
March 5, 2019
EY-Parthenon | Page 2
I try to make sense of Japan, and therefore the world
Source: EY Parthenon
• Japanese
Corporations
• Multi-Nationals
• M&A
• Strategy
• Organization
• Consumer sector
• Nikkei Asian
Review
• Bloomberg
• BBC
• Conferences
Management
Consulting
Writing & Speaking
Part of Japanese problem is narrative deficiency
My Value Proposition
EY-Parthenon | Page 3
Agenda
Heisei era through a kaleidoscope
Growth levers
1
2
EY-Parthenon | Page 4
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1949-06-01
1950-06-01
1951-06-01
1952-06-01
1953-06-01
1954-06-01
1955-06-01
1956-06-01
1957-06-01
1958-06-01
1959-06-01
1960-06-01
1961-06-01
1962-06-01
1963-06-01
1964-06-01
1965-06-01
1966-06-01
1967-06-01
1968-06-01
1969-06-01
1970-06-01
1971-06-01
1972-06-01
1973-06-01
1974-06-01
1975-06-01
1976-06-01
1977-06-01
1978-06-01
1979-06-01
1980-06-01
1981-06-01
1982-06-01
1983-06-01
1984-06-01
1985-06-01
1986-06-01
1987-06-01
1988-06-01
1989-06-01
1990-06-01
1991-06-01
1992-06-01
1993-06-01
1994-06-01
1995-06-01
1996-06-01
1997-06-01
1998-06-01
1999-06-01
2000-06-01
2001-06-01
2002-06-01
2003-06-01
2004-06-01
2005-06-01
2006-06-01
2007-06-01
2008-06-01
2009-06-01
2010-06-01
2011-06-01
2012-06-01
2013-06-01
2014-06-01
2015-06-01
2016-06-01
2017-06-01
2018-06-01
The crash, a catalyst for “lost,” or turbulent decades?
Note: (1) not an exhaustive list of historical milestones
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Bloomberg, Mizuho Research Institute, EY analysis
Historical timeline (Nikkei average)
1995
January: Great Hanshin
Earthquake
March: Domestic cultattack
1964
Tokyo Olympics
1985
Bubble economy
begins
2012
Launch of
Abenomics
1973
First oil shock
Showa era (1926 – 1989) Heisei era (1989 – 2019)
1990
Bubble economy collapses
2011
Great East Japan Earthquake
2008
Financial crisis
1952
Treaty of San Francisco signed,
ending American occupation of
Japan
EY-Parthenon | Page 5
4
Two earthquakes within Heisei were economically and psychologically damaging
Source: CNN, McDouglall Insurance, World Atlas, The Guardian, Japan Journal
Top 5 costliest natural disasters in history (billion USD)
Costs (billion USD)
Buildings
(homes, offices,
factories etc.)
12
3 5
$223
2011: Great East Japan
Earthquake / Tsunami
$98
1995: Great Hanshin
Earthquake
$148
2008: Sichuan
Earthquake
$160
2005: Hurricane
Katrina
$108
2017: Hurricane
Harvey
Lifeline facilities
(water, gas,
telecom etc..)
Great East Japan
Earthquake / Tsunami
Great Hanshin
Earthquake
Infrastructure
(roads,
airports etc.)
Other
(agriculture,
forestry etc..)
179 63
9 9
18 18
18 9
TOTAL 223 98
EY-Parthenon | Page 6
Showa era Heisei era
During Heisei, Japan was dethroned as second largest economy by China…
Note: (1) includes Germany, UK, France
Source: World Bank, EY-P analysis
GDP (current USD)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
USROW Japan China EU1GDP value
GDP share Japan China US
TrillionUSD
GDPshare(%)
Due to…
• Japan’s weakened domestic demand
and drop in exports
• China’s manufacturing boom
EY-Parthenon | Page 7
…and also lost its status of having the most valuable companies in the world
Source: Quartz, FXSSI, Charlie Bilello, EY-P analysis
1980 1990 2000 2010 2018
1 IBM
Nippon Telegraph &
Telephone (NTT)
Microsoft PetroChina Apple
2 AT&T
Bank of Tokyo -
Mitsubishi
General Electric Exxon Mobil Amazon
3 Exxon
Industrial Bank of
Japan
NTT Docomo Microsoft Microsoft
4 Standard Oil
Sumitomo Mitsui
Banking
Cisco ICBC Alphabet
5 Schlumberger Toyota Motors Walmart Walmart Berkshire Hathaway
6 Shell Fuji Bank Intel
China Construction
Bank
Facebook
7 Mobil Daiichi Kangyo Bank
Nippon Telegraph &
Telephone (NTT)
BHP Billiton Alibaba
8 Atlantic Richfield IBM Exxon Mobil HSBC Tencent
9 General Electric UFJ Bank Lucent Petrobras JP Morgan Chase
10 Eastman Kodak Exxon Deutsche Telecom Apple Johnson & Johnson
Largest companies globally by market cap
Heisei era
EY-Parthenon | Page 8
Growing financial instability led to later aged marriages and fewer births
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, World Bank, EY-P analysis
Number of marriages (Japan) and fertility rate (total births per woman) by country
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Showa era Heisei era
Thousandmarriages
China
US
Japan
28 26 31 29
1990
Mean age of first
marriage:
2017
EY-Parthenon | Page 9
30 30 28 26 25 27 28 26 22 20 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8
50
55 60 67 72
76 79 83 86 87 86 84
81
76
73
71
68
63
58
54
50
47 44
4
5
5
6
7
9
11
12 15 18 22 26 29
33
36
37
37
37
39
39
38
36
35
12.1
11.5
11.2
10.8
9.8
8.5
7.4
6.6
5.8
4.8
3.9
3.3
2.8
2.3
2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Showa era Heisei era
Japan’s dwlindling workforce is now struggling to support ballooning elderly population
Source: Mitsubishi UFJ, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Reuters
15 - 64
65+
0 - 14
99
105
94
112
97
107
102
121
124
117
90
84
121
87
92
127127127 125
112
117
125123
Workers per
beneficiary
Total population by age bracket (Million people, ratio of workers to beneficiaries)
Forecast
Government grappling with…
Severe labor
shortages
Increasing
welfare costs
Shrinking tax
base
EY-Parthenon | Page 10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Showa era Heisei era
As a result, dual-income households becoming a necessity, and those without children
becoming commonplace
Note: (1) “Single income household” indicates those which husband is non-agricultural forestry employee and wife is unemployed; “Dual income” indicates non-agricultural employers for both husband and wife; (2)
Includes three generation households
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis
Household composition and share of dual income households1 (millions of households, %)
Single person
Couple only
Parent(s) with
child(ren)2
37.5
39.4
41.2
40.8
44.5
45.7
46.3 48.0 48.6
50.1 50.4 50.4 49.9 50.4
33%
51%
Single middle-aged men Elderly females
Single person households will
continue increasing, driven by:
Dual-income
household
Single-income
household
Other
EY-Parthenon | Page 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Despite turmoil, Japan’s population remains largely middle class…
Note: (1) Japan figures between 2010 – 2013 estimated based on data points from 2009 and 2014
Source: Credit Suisse, World Inequality Database, EY-P analysis
Wealth shares by country (Household)
USJapan
Distribution of adults by wealth range (% of adults,
USD)
Bottom 90%
Top 1%
Bottom 90%
Top 1%
Over 1 million
100,000 –
1 million
10,000 –
100,000
Under
10,000
Japan’s1 bottom 90% still holds 48% more wealth than the top 1%
In the US, bottom 90% now holds 10% less wealth than the top 1%
2018
EY-Parthenon | Page 12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1990 2000 2010 2017
…and still largely homogenous
Source: Pew Research, Federal Statistical Office Germany (for second-generation statistics), EY-P
Share of population that is foreign born
Japan
Germany
China
US
Including
second-
gen
Including
second-
gen
Australia
EY-Parthenon | Page 13
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
That said, “foreigners next door” grew to be common sight
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis
Foreign nationals (million people, share of total population), and share of marriages with at least one foreigner
Showa era Heisei era
Others
Korean
Chinese
Share of foreign
nationals in total
population
Share of marriages
where bride or
groom is foreigner
Historically implanted wariness that
immigration will threaten preservation of
cultural identity
Immigration Control Act (2005) tightened
requirements for some visas, causing decline in
international marriages
Japanese public begins accepting
bicultural people as “Japanese” (e.g.
Naomi Osaka)
EY-Parthenon | Page 14
Last 6 years of Heisei era was colored with Abenomics…
Source: EY-P analysis
Arrow:
Aggressive
monetary
policy
• Deflation and uncompetitive yen limiting
economic growth
• Radical monetary easing by Bank of
Japan and increasing inflation target to
2%
• Need for short-term boost to the
stagnant economy
• A special budget of $135bn and
increased spending on infrastructure
• Need for modernized system past
high-growth era
• Improve on corporate governance
• Make labor market flexible
• Promote Deregulation
Driver: Policies:
Expansionary
fiscal policy
Structural
Reform
And Growth
1st Arrow
2nd Arrow
3rd Arrow
Debt
Deflation
Demographics
EY-Parthenon | Page 15
…built on an exceptionally long and stable power base of second Abe administration
Source: Nippon.com, Feel Japan, EY-P analysis
State leaders by tenure in Heisei era
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Japan
US
China
Germany
President
Trump
(2017 – )
President Xi
(2013 – )
Chancellor Merkel
(2005 – )
Prime Minister Abe
(2012 - )
Prime Minister Abe’s
first term
EY-Parthenon | Page 16
So far Japan has been “eye of typhoon” in the global populist movement
Note: (1) as of 2018
Source: Institute for Global Change, Bloomberg, The Guardian, NY Times, EY-P analysis
Populism on the rise globally1…
…but little demand for populist
ideology in Japan
Japan
Low immigration
Low crime rate
Modest levels of inequality
(rural areas well represented politically)
Weak progressivism
(little backlash)
Relatively stable economy /
employment
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
Currently in power
Party in parliament
EY-Parthenon | Page 17
In this relative calmness, did Abenomics work? Answer is mixed
Note: Not an exhaustive list of metrics with government target; (1) 2017 figure
Source: JETRO, OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Macro Advisors, FRED Economic Research, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis
2012 2018 Govt target
Labor force Million people 62.7 66.5
Unemployment rate % 8,802 23,098
Wages YoY % -0.40% 0.80%
Inflation rate Annual growth rate % -0.05% 0.98% 2.00% (earliest
possible time)
Female labor force
participation rate
% 63% 69%
Women in managerial
positions
% 11.1% 12.9% 30% (2020)
Real GDP
Trillion JPY
(annual growth rate %) 499 (1.5%) 538 (0.87%) 2% growth (earliest
possible time)
Nikkei Closing price 8,802 23,098
Outbound FDI Billion USD 120 1691
Inbound GDI Trillion JPY 18.1 28.6 35 (2020)
Competitiveness
IMD World Competitiveness
Ranking 27 25
Tourists and spend
Million people 8 31 40 (2020)
Trillion JPY 1.1 4.5 8 (2020)
Good for economy / exceeding target
Can be improved
EY-Parthenon | Page 18
While Japan Inc. has “globalized” through robust outbound FDI…
Note: (1) 112 JPY = 1 USD
Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, EY analysis
Revenue from FDI vs exports1 (billion USD)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Exports from Japan
Revenue Japanese
companies’
overseas
subsidiaries
Benefits
Ability to meet existing or growing
demand in local market
Lower cost✔
✔
EY-Parthenon | Page 19
…potential growth rate has not recovered within Heisei
Source: Bank of Japan
Potential growth rate (y/y % change, contribution to the potential growth rate %)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total factor productivity Capital stock Hours worked Number of employed Potential growth rate
‘83 ‘85 ‘87 ‘89 ‘91 ‘93 ‘95 ‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 ‘13 ‘15 ‘17
Showa era Heisei era
“Abenomics”
Percent(%)
EY-Parthenon | Page 20
Heisei era marked a definitive shift in Japanese psyche
Source: EY-P analysis
High growth
Confidence
Homogeneity
Maturity
Insecurity
Diversity
Aged demographic
Fell behind as economic
superpower
Untangled historical cross-
shareholding culture
Irregular workers spiked
Fertility decreased
Single-person households became
commonplace
Foreign nationals increased
Earthquakes affected post-war
peace
Late 1980s… …to now
EY-Parthenon | Page 21
Agenda
Heisei era through a kaleidoscope
Growth levers
• Innovation
• Productivity
• Gender diversity
1
2
EY-Parthenon | Page 22
In terms of commercializing innovation, IPO in Japan has been overshadowed by China
Note: (1) Defined as a start-up valued at over $1bn
Source: Research Institute of Economy, CB Insights, Trade, and Industry, University of Florida, Japan Exchange Group, EY analysis
Number of IPOs by country
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
China
US
Japan
Heisei era
Number of “unicorns1” (2019)
1
6
9
13
17
40
80152
81
Japan
S. Korea
Germany
India
UK
China
US
Innovation
EY-Parthenon | Page 23
Even more concerning is slow-down in basic research funding
Source: World Bank, OECD, National Science Board, EY analysis
R&D as a % of GDP
Share of patents granted by US Patent & Trademark
Office
China
US
Japan
EU
S. Korea
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
China
US
Japan
Germany
S. Korea
Australia
Innovation
EY-Parthenon | Page 24
Innovation comes in many flavors. Japan needs to choose a model that works for them
Source: EY-P analysis
Number of
unicorns
(2019)
Innovation
Formula for innovation…
152
US
Entrepreneurism
Risk capital
• VC 36% of GDP
81
China
One party system
• Agile regulation
“Copy to make better”
Entrepreneurism
9
Germany
High quality SMEs
Government support
• Fraunhofer Institute
Japan
Post Heisei, what model works for Japan? 1
EY-Parthenon | Page 25
24.5 41
Will tapping into new labor cohorts improve Japan’s low productivity?
Note: (1) 2013, latest data available
Source: World Bank, OECD, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY analysis
Average labor hours per week (2017)
26.1
34.2
Productivity (2017)Labor force by full-time / part-time (2017)
16.0
28.8
27.4
134.7
Japan
US
Germany
$41.9
$64.1
$60.5
GDP / hours (USD)
• Seniors
• Women
• Foreigners
Regular worker avg
Labor force avg
Labor force avg
Labor force avg
32.9
38.9Regular worker avg1
Labor force avg
Lighter shade indicates part-time workers
Productivity
EY-Parthenon | Page 26
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Irregular workers as they are today can be an easy clutch preempting productivity
increase in long run
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Times
Labor force by employment status and unemployment rate (million people, %)
Showa era Heisei era
Irregular
Regular
Irregular
Regular
Unemploymentrate
9/2015: Revised Worker Dispatch Act
• New term limit of 3 years / person
• To extend, must be permanent contract
Productivity
EY-Parthenon | Page 27
On the surface, “womenomics” can be boasted as a success…
Source: OECD, Congressional Research Service, EY-P analysis
What is? Outcome
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Germany
Japan
US
OECD avg
“Womenomics”
Labor force participation rate (age 15 – 64)
“Womenomics”
74%
69%
68%
64%
Abenomics:
3rd Arrow
Structural
reforms,
focusing on
boosting
economic
growth
through
reforms and
policies to
encourage the
participation
and
advancement
of women in
the Japanese
workforce
Policies include…
Help with child care
• Fix daycare shortages
• Expand childcare leave benefits (in 2014,
increased payment to new parents from 50% to
67% of their salary during the first six months of
parental leave)
Encouragement of
female promotions
• Support companies that encourage female
employees to pursue both career and family
through subsidies and tax measures
• Encourage companies to disclose info concerning
the promotion of women
Concrete targets for
female labor
participation
• Increase participation of women (aged 25 – 44)
to 73% by 2020
• Increase the percentage of women in leadership
positions from 10% to 30% by 2020 (goal has
been since revised to ~13%)
Gender diversity
EY-Parthenon | Page 28
$
$
…but women still face a severe disadvantage
Source: OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis
Fewer benefits… More housework…Less money…
Total labor (m people), irregular share Wage gap (2017)
Hours : minutes spent on housework per day
(2016 unless otherwise noted)
0.90
0.86
0.85
0.82
0.76
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Japan
US
Germany
France
Australia
2.3
2.9
2.5
2.5
0.7
3.7
5.2
4.4
4.1
3.7
2012
36.1,
20%
26.7,
54%
2018
37.1,
22%
29.7,
56%
3:44
0:41
4:03
2:30
2:30
2:52
2:15
4:26
5:11
3:44
(2006)
(2010)
Gender diversity
EY-Parthenon | Page 29
Japanese may be equally responsible for inequality influenced by unconscious bias
Note: (1) Includes both undergraduate and graduate
Source: OECD, Times Higher Education, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Tokyo University, University of Melbourne, Unesco, EY-P analysis
Enrollment by gender1 (2017)
76%
66%
50%
49%
44%
37%
24%
34%
50%
51%
56%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Tokyo University
Tsinghua University
Oxford University
Harvard University
Melbourne University
LMU Munich
Tertiary education by gender
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross enrollment ratio (%)
Gender diversity
EY-Parthenon | Page 30
Promote innovation
To overcome post-Heisei challenges…
Source: EY-P analysis
Improve productivity Embrace diversity
Government can help set
innovation framework
• Provide state-funded R&D
facilities across country
• Encourage competition between
regions / R&D centers
R&D clusters can help SMEs, which
are often strapped for resources
• Hidden gems likely to be
revealed
1
2
Abolish dual track employment
system
• Allow flexible transition
between full time and part time
• Instill same work same pay
principle
1
Revise evaluation system to reward
output instead of facetime
2
Accelerate parity
• Promote women
• Invest in pipeline
1
Promote level playing field at all
levels
• Universities
• Work
• Home
2
…resulting in a revitalized, stimulated Japan for the next era

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

India and China_An Economy Comparison
India and China_An Economy ComparisonIndia and China_An Economy Comparison
India and China_An Economy ComparisonAnurag Kanoongo
 
Comparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and world
Comparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and worldComparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and world
Comparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and worldraghunathan janarthanan
 
India & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAIN
India & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAINIndia & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAIN
India & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAINYash Jain
 
Economic rise of china and its consequences
Economic rise of china and its consequencesEconomic rise of china and its consequences
Economic rise of china and its consequencesAdeniyi David Banjo
 
Economic growth china
Economic growth chinaEconomic growth china
Economic growth chinaAda Alipaj
 
Indo-Chinese Economies
Indo-Chinese EconomiesIndo-Chinese Economies
Indo-Chinese Economiesakshatasrinath
 
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addicted
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedChina's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addicted
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedRBS Economics
 
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...OECD Governance
 
Session 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailand
Session 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailandSession 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailand
Session 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailandntuperc
 
Asean+3 capital market swot analysis
Asean+3 capital market swot analysisAsean+3 capital market swot analysis
Asean+3 capital market swot analysisRosa Kristiadi
 
Session 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodia
Session 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodiaSession 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodia
Session 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodiantuperc
 
China monetary policy (final)
China monetary policy (final)China monetary policy (final)
China monetary policy (final)Alejo Colorado
 
Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...
Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...
Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...OECD, Economics Department
 
Macro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rate
Macro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rateMacro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rate
Macro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rateThanh Phương Tống Trần
 

Mais procurados (20)

China economy
China economyChina economy
China economy
 
India and China_An Economy Comparison
India and China_An Economy ComparisonIndia and China_An Economy Comparison
India and China_An Economy Comparison
 
Comparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and world
Comparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and worldComparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and world
Comparison india indian economy vs us eu canada china and world
 
India & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAIN
India & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAINIndia & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAIN
India & China -A Comparative Analysis-YASH JAIN
 
Economic rise of china and its consequences
Economic rise of china and its consequencesEconomic rise of china and its consequences
Economic rise of china and its consequences
 
Economic growth china
Economic growth chinaEconomic growth china
Economic growth china
 
Indo-Chinese Economies
Indo-Chinese EconomiesIndo-Chinese Economies
Indo-Chinese Economies
 
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addicted
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addictedChina's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addicted
China's economy: slowing distorted and debt-addicted
 
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...
Presentation of the OECD Territorial Review of the Netherlands, The Hague, Ne...
 
Chap10pp
Chap10ppChap10pp
Chap10pp
 
Macroeconomics of China
Macroeconomics of ChinaMacroeconomics of China
Macroeconomics of China
 
china2012
china2012china2012
china2012
 
Session 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailand
Session 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailandSession 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailand
Session 2 archanun how aec promote intra_asean trade evidence from thailand
 
Asean+3 capital market swot analysis
Asean+3 capital market swot analysisAsean+3 capital market swot analysis
Asean+3 capital market swot analysis
 
India Vs China
India Vs ChinaIndia Vs China
India Vs China
 
Session 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodia
Session 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodiaSession 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodia
Session 2 tanaka trade and investment in cambodia
 
China monetary policy (final)
China monetary policy (final)China monetary policy (final)
China monetary policy (final)
 
Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...
Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...
Oecd economic-outlook-june-2016-promoting-productivity-and-equality-a-twin-ch...
 
Macro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rate
Macro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rateMacro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rate
Macro economic -Chinese economic - Unemployment rate
 
Thailand Country Analysis
Thailand Country AnalysisThailand Country Analysis
Thailand Country Analysis
 

Semelhante a Public Lecture Slides (3.5.2019) The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis?

Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?
Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?
Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?Aranca
 
Reindustrialization
ReindustrializationReindustrialization
ReindustrializationKan Yuenyong
 
Economical and political factors of Japan
Economical and political factors of JapanEconomical and political factors of Japan
Economical and political factors of Japanhafsa317
 
Will Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docx
Will Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docxWill Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docx
Will Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docxambersalomon88660
 
Asian Economics 2011 03.ppt
Asian Economics 2011 03.pptAsian Economics 2011 03.ppt
Asian Economics 2011 03.pptStephan Langdon
 
global aging
global agingglobal aging
global agingjaseemh
 
International Newsletter Kienbaum Japan
International Newsletter Kienbaum JapanInternational Newsletter Kienbaum Japan
International Newsletter Kienbaum JapanDavid Liendgens
 
Global Overview of Japan
Global Overview of JapanGlobal Overview of Japan
Global Overview of JapanZeeshan Kazi
 
Japanese Society and Economics
Japanese Society and EconomicsJapanese Society and Economics
Japanese Society and EconomicsSteve McCarty
 
Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)
Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)
Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)Nishant Kumar
 
Japan vs Australia
Japan vs AustraliaJapan vs Australia
Japan vs AustraliaShivam Mall
 
Economic laws and human action in a time of crisis
Economic laws and human action in a time of crisisEconomic laws and human action in a time of crisis
Economic laws and human action in a time of crisisAlan Freeman
 
Japan presentation2
Japan presentation2Japan presentation2
Japan presentation2Atomf
 
Xv6 c_klp4
 Xv6 c_klp4 Xv6 c_klp4
Xv6 c_klp4Amaihime
 

Semelhante a Public Lecture Slides (3.5.2019) The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis? (20)

ICAS: The results of Abenomics and Kishida's New Capitalism
ICAS: The results of Abenomics and Kishida's New CapitalismICAS: The results of Abenomics and Kishida's New Capitalism
ICAS: The results of Abenomics and Kishida's New Capitalism
 
Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?
Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?
Aranca Views | China – The Japan of the ‘80s?
 
Reindustrialization
ReindustrializationReindustrialization
Reindustrialization
 
Class 4 PowerPoint
Class 4 PowerPointClass 4 PowerPoint
Class 4 PowerPoint
 
Economical and political factors of Japan
Economical and political factors of JapanEconomical and political factors of Japan
Economical and political factors of Japan
 
Asian 2001 05
Asian 2001 05Asian 2001 05
Asian 2001 05
 
Will Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docx
Will Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docxWill Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docx
Will Japan Change By Peter K. Frost I s Japan once ag.docx
 
Asian 2011 03
Asian 2011 03Asian 2011 03
Asian 2011 03
 
Asian Economics 2011 03.ppt
Asian Economics 2011 03.pptAsian Economics 2011 03.ppt
Asian Economics 2011 03.ppt
 
global aging
global agingglobal aging
global aging
 
International Newsletter Kienbaum Japan
International Newsletter Kienbaum JapanInternational Newsletter Kienbaum Japan
International Newsletter Kienbaum Japan
 
Global Overview of Japan
Global Overview of JapanGlobal Overview of Japan
Global Overview of Japan
 
Japanese Society and Economics
Japanese Society and EconomicsJapanese Society and Economics
Japanese Society and Economics
 
Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)
Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)
Japan economy decline (ABENOMICS)
 
Japan vs Australia
Japan vs AustraliaJapan vs Australia
Japan vs Australia
 
Public Lecture Slides (5.28.2019) Japan's new immigration policy
Public Lecture Slides (5.28.2019) Japan's new immigration policyPublic Lecture Slides (5.28.2019) Japan's new immigration policy
Public Lecture Slides (5.28.2019) Japan's new immigration policy
 
Economic laws and human action in a time of crisis
Economic laws and human action in a time of crisisEconomic laws and human action in a time of crisis
Economic laws and human action in a time of crisis
 
Japan presentation2
Japan presentation2Japan presentation2
Japan presentation2
 
0615_china_2020.pdf
0615_china_2020.pdf0615_china_2020.pdf
0615_china_2020.pdf
 
Xv6 c_klp4
 Xv6 c_klp4 Xv6 c_klp4
Xv6 c_klp4
 

Mais de Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ

Mais de Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies (ICAS) at TUJ (20)

Brown Bag Luncheon: Naomi Fink on inflation and retirement
Brown Bag Luncheon: Naomi Fink on inflation and retirementBrown Bag Luncheon: Naomi Fink on inflation and retirement
Brown Bag Luncheon: Naomi Fink on inflation and retirement
 
Neutrality in the new Cold War
Neutrality in the new Cold WarNeutrality in the new Cold War
Neutrality in the new Cold War
 
Can Japan Resist Dual Citizenship?
Can Japan Resist Dual Citizenship?Can Japan Resist Dual Citizenship?
Can Japan Resist Dual Citizenship?
 
The Jingu Gaien redevelopment controversy: A talk with Rochelle Kopp
The Jingu Gaien redevelopment controversy: A talk with Rochelle KoppThe Jingu Gaien redevelopment controversy: A talk with Rochelle Kopp
The Jingu Gaien redevelopment controversy: A talk with Rochelle Kopp
 
Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections
Understanding the 2022 US midterm electionsUnderstanding the 2022 US midterm elections
Understanding the 2022 US midterm elections
 
Japan’s Shifting Economic Security Policies and Prospects Under the New Kishi...
Japan’s Shifting Economic Security Policies and Prospects Under the New Kishi...Japan’s Shifting Economic Security Policies and Prospects Under the New Kishi...
Japan’s Shifting Economic Security Policies and Prospects Under the New Kishi...
 
The End of the LDP As We Know It
The End of the LDP As We Know ItThe End of the LDP As We Know It
The End of the LDP As We Know It
 
ICAS Program Book Vol. 3: Spring-Summer 2020
ICAS Program Book Vol. 3: Spring-Summer 2020ICAS Program Book Vol. 3: Spring-Summer 2020
ICAS Program Book Vol. 3: Spring-Summer 2020
 
ICAS Program Book Vol. 2: Fall 2019
ICAS Program Book Vol. 2: Fall 2019 ICAS Program Book Vol. 2: Fall 2019
ICAS Program Book Vol. 2: Fall 2019
 
ICAS Program Book Vol. 1: Summer 2019
ICAS Program Book Vol. 1: Summer 2019ICAS Program Book Vol. 1: Summer 2019
ICAS Program Book Vol. 1: Summer 2019
 
Changing Forms of Buraku Discrimination in Contemporary Japan
Changing Forms of Buraku Discrimination in Contemporary Japan Changing Forms of Buraku Discrimination in Contemporary Japan
Changing Forms of Buraku Discrimination in Contemporary Japan
 
Closed Loop, Open Borders: Wealth and Inequality in India
Closed Loop, Open Borders: Wealth and Inequality in India Closed Loop, Open Borders: Wealth and Inequality in India
Closed Loop, Open Borders: Wealth and Inequality in India
 
Megumu Kamata - Background, Influences and Recent Works
Megumu Kamata -  Background, Influences and Recent WorksMegumu Kamata -  Background, Influences and Recent Works
Megumu Kamata - Background, Influences and Recent Works
 
Tattoo and Bathhouse Bans in Contemporary Japan
Tattoo and Bathhouse Bans in Contemporary JapanTattoo and Bathhouse Bans in Contemporary Japan
Tattoo and Bathhouse Bans in Contemporary Japan
 
China’s New Navy and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
China’s New Navy and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster ReliefChina’s New Navy and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
China’s New Navy and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief
 
US Constitutional Democracy
US Constitutional DemocracyUS Constitutional Democracy
US Constitutional Democracy
 
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
 
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
 
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
Japan and Russia: Contemporary Political, Economic, and Military Relations Pa...
 
Does American Democracy Have a Future? The U.S. on the Eve of the 2020 Election
Does American Democracy Have a Future? The U.S. on the Eve of the 2020 ElectionDoes American Democracy Have a Future? The U.S. on the Eve of the 2020 Election
Does American Democracy Have a Future? The U.S. on the Eve of the 2020 Election
 

Último

Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...Krashi Coaching
 
Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104
Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104
Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104misteraugie
 
SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptx
SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptxSOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptx
SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptxiammrhaywood
 
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdf
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdfDisha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdf
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdfchloefrazer622
 
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptxPOINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptxSayali Powar
 
Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...EduSkills OECD
 
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)eniolaolutunde
 
1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi 6.pdf
1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi  6.pdf1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi  6.pdf
1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi 6.pdfQucHHunhnh
 
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy ReformA Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy ReformChameera Dedduwage
 
Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global Impact
Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global ImpactBeyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global Impact
Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global ImpactPECB
 
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptxThe basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptxheathfieldcps1
 
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdfSanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdfsanyamsingh5019
 
Student login on Anyboli platform.helpin
Student login on Anyboli platform.helpinStudent login on Anyboli platform.helpin
Student login on Anyboli platform.helpinRaunakKeshri1
 
BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...
BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...
BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...Sapna Thakur
 
Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17
Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17
Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17Celine George
 
Activity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdf
Activity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdfActivity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdf
Activity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdfciinovamais
 

Último (20)

Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1
Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1
Código Creativo y Arte de Software | Unidad 1
 
Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: Structured Data, Assistants, & RAG"
Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: Structured Data, Assistants, & RAG"Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: Structured Data, Assistants, & RAG"
Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: Structured Data, Assistants, & RAG"
 
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
Kisan Call Centre - To harness potential of ICT in Agriculture by answer farm...
 
Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104
Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104
Nutritional Needs Presentation - HLTH 104
 
SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptx
SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptxSOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptx
SOCIAL AND HISTORICAL CONTEXT - LFTVD.pptx
 
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdf
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdfDisha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdf
Disha NEET Physics Guide for classes 11 and 12.pdf
 
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptxPOINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
POINT- BIOCHEMISTRY SEM 2 ENZYMES UNIT 5.pptx
 
Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
Presentation by Andreas Schleicher Tackling the School Absenteeism Crisis 30 ...
 
Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: The Basics of Prompt Design"
Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: The Basics of Prompt Design"Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: The Basics of Prompt Design"
Mattingly "AI & Prompt Design: The Basics of Prompt Design"
 
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
Software Engineering Methodologies (overview)
 
1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi 6.pdf
1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi  6.pdf1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi  6.pdf
1029-Danh muc Sach Giao Khoa khoi 6.pdf
 
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy ReformA Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
A Critique of the Proposed National Education Policy Reform
 
Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global Impact
Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global ImpactBeyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global Impact
Beyond the EU: DORA and NIS 2 Directive's Global Impact
 
INDIA QUIZ 2024 RLAC DELHI UNIVERSITY.pptx
INDIA QUIZ 2024 RLAC DELHI UNIVERSITY.pptxINDIA QUIZ 2024 RLAC DELHI UNIVERSITY.pptx
INDIA QUIZ 2024 RLAC DELHI UNIVERSITY.pptx
 
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptxThe basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
The basics of sentences session 2pptx copy.pptx
 
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdfSanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
Sanyam Choudhary Chemistry practical.pdf
 
Student login on Anyboli platform.helpin
Student login on Anyboli platform.helpinStudent login on Anyboli platform.helpin
Student login on Anyboli platform.helpin
 
BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...
BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...
BAG TECHNIQUE Bag technique-a tool making use of public health bag through wh...
 
Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17
Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17
Advanced Views - Calendar View in Odoo 17
 
Activity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdf
Activity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdfActivity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdf
Activity 01 - Artificial Culture (1).pdf
 

Public Lecture Slides (3.5.2019) The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis?

  • 1. The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis? Temple University March 5, 2019
  • 2. EY-Parthenon | Page 2 I try to make sense of Japan, and therefore the world Source: EY Parthenon • Japanese Corporations • Multi-Nationals • M&A • Strategy • Organization • Consumer sector • Nikkei Asian Review • Bloomberg • BBC • Conferences Management Consulting Writing & Speaking Part of Japanese problem is narrative deficiency My Value Proposition
  • 3. EY-Parthenon | Page 3 Agenda Heisei era through a kaleidoscope Growth levers 1 2
  • 4. EY-Parthenon | Page 4 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 1949-06-01 1950-06-01 1951-06-01 1952-06-01 1953-06-01 1954-06-01 1955-06-01 1956-06-01 1957-06-01 1958-06-01 1959-06-01 1960-06-01 1961-06-01 1962-06-01 1963-06-01 1964-06-01 1965-06-01 1966-06-01 1967-06-01 1968-06-01 1969-06-01 1970-06-01 1971-06-01 1972-06-01 1973-06-01 1974-06-01 1975-06-01 1976-06-01 1977-06-01 1978-06-01 1979-06-01 1980-06-01 1981-06-01 1982-06-01 1983-06-01 1984-06-01 1985-06-01 1986-06-01 1987-06-01 1988-06-01 1989-06-01 1990-06-01 1991-06-01 1992-06-01 1993-06-01 1994-06-01 1995-06-01 1996-06-01 1997-06-01 1998-06-01 1999-06-01 2000-06-01 2001-06-01 2002-06-01 2003-06-01 2004-06-01 2005-06-01 2006-06-01 2007-06-01 2008-06-01 2009-06-01 2010-06-01 2011-06-01 2012-06-01 2013-06-01 2014-06-01 2015-06-01 2016-06-01 2017-06-01 2018-06-01 The crash, a catalyst for “lost,” or turbulent decades? Note: (1) not an exhaustive list of historical milestones Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Bloomberg, Mizuho Research Institute, EY analysis Historical timeline (Nikkei average) 1995 January: Great Hanshin Earthquake March: Domestic cultattack 1964 Tokyo Olympics 1985 Bubble economy begins 2012 Launch of Abenomics 1973 First oil shock Showa era (1926 – 1989) Heisei era (1989 – 2019) 1990 Bubble economy collapses 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake 2008 Financial crisis 1952 Treaty of San Francisco signed, ending American occupation of Japan
  • 5. EY-Parthenon | Page 5 4 Two earthquakes within Heisei were economically and psychologically damaging Source: CNN, McDouglall Insurance, World Atlas, The Guardian, Japan Journal Top 5 costliest natural disasters in history (billion USD) Costs (billion USD) Buildings (homes, offices, factories etc.) 12 3 5 $223 2011: Great East Japan Earthquake / Tsunami $98 1995: Great Hanshin Earthquake $148 2008: Sichuan Earthquake $160 2005: Hurricane Katrina $108 2017: Hurricane Harvey Lifeline facilities (water, gas, telecom etc..) Great East Japan Earthquake / Tsunami Great Hanshin Earthquake Infrastructure (roads, airports etc.) Other (agriculture, forestry etc..) 179 63 9 9 18 18 18 9 TOTAL 223 98
  • 6. EY-Parthenon | Page 6 Showa era Heisei era During Heisei, Japan was dethroned as second largest economy by China… Note: (1) includes Germany, UK, France Source: World Bank, EY-P analysis GDP (current USD) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 USROW Japan China EU1GDP value GDP share Japan China US TrillionUSD GDPshare(%) Due to… • Japan’s weakened domestic demand and drop in exports • China’s manufacturing boom
  • 7. EY-Parthenon | Page 7 …and also lost its status of having the most valuable companies in the world Source: Quartz, FXSSI, Charlie Bilello, EY-P analysis 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 1 IBM Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (NTT) Microsoft PetroChina Apple 2 AT&T Bank of Tokyo - Mitsubishi General Electric Exxon Mobil Amazon 3 Exxon Industrial Bank of Japan NTT Docomo Microsoft Microsoft 4 Standard Oil Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Cisco ICBC Alphabet 5 Schlumberger Toyota Motors Walmart Walmart Berkshire Hathaway 6 Shell Fuji Bank Intel China Construction Bank Facebook 7 Mobil Daiichi Kangyo Bank Nippon Telegraph & Telephone (NTT) BHP Billiton Alibaba 8 Atlantic Richfield IBM Exxon Mobil HSBC Tencent 9 General Electric UFJ Bank Lucent Petrobras JP Morgan Chase 10 Eastman Kodak Exxon Deutsche Telecom Apple Johnson & Johnson Largest companies globally by market cap Heisei era
  • 8. EY-Parthenon | Page 8 Growing financial instability led to later aged marriages and fewer births Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, World Bank, EY-P analysis Number of marriages (Japan) and fertility rate (total births per woman) by country 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 - 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Showa era Heisei era Thousandmarriages China US Japan 28 26 31 29 1990 Mean age of first marriage: 2017
  • 9. EY-Parthenon | Page 9 30 30 28 26 25 27 28 26 22 20 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 50 55 60 67 72 76 79 83 86 87 86 84 81 76 73 71 68 63 58 54 50 47 44 4 5 5 6 7 9 11 12 15 18 22 26 29 33 36 37 37 37 39 39 38 36 35 12.1 11.5 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.5 7.4 6.6 5.8 4.8 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Showa era Heisei era Japan’s dwlindling workforce is now struggling to support ballooning elderly population Source: Mitsubishi UFJ, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Reuters 15 - 64 65+ 0 - 14 99 105 94 112 97 107 102 121 124 117 90 84 121 87 92 127127127 125 112 117 125123 Workers per beneficiary Total population by age bracket (Million people, ratio of workers to beneficiaries) Forecast Government grappling with… Severe labor shortages Increasing welfare costs Shrinking tax base
  • 10. EY-Parthenon | Page 10 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Showa era Heisei era As a result, dual-income households becoming a necessity, and those without children becoming commonplace Note: (1) “Single income household” indicates those which husband is non-agricultural forestry employee and wife is unemployed; “Dual income” indicates non-agricultural employers for both husband and wife; (2) Includes three generation households Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis Household composition and share of dual income households1 (millions of households, %) Single person Couple only Parent(s) with child(ren)2 37.5 39.4 41.2 40.8 44.5 45.7 46.3 48.0 48.6 50.1 50.4 50.4 49.9 50.4 33% 51% Single middle-aged men Elderly females Single person households will continue increasing, driven by: Dual-income household Single-income household Other
  • 11. EY-Parthenon | Page 11 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Despite turmoil, Japan’s population remains largely middle class… Note: (1) Japan figures between 2010 – 2013 estimated based on data points from 2009 and 2014 Source: Credit Suisse, World Inequality Database, EY-P analysis Wealth shares by country (Household) USJapan Distribution of adults by wealth range (% of adults, USD) Bottom 90% Top 1% Bottom 90% Top 1% Over 1 million 100,000 – 1 million 10,000 – 100,000 Under 10,000 Japan’s1 bottom 90% still holds 48% more wealth than the top 1% In the US, bottom 90% now holds 10% less wealth than the top 1% 2018
  • 12. EY-Parthenon | Page 12 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 1990 2000 2010 2017 …and still largely homogenous Source: Pew Research, Federal Statistical Office Germany (for second-generation statistics), EY-P Share of population that is foreign born Japan Germany China US Including second- gen Including second- gen Australia
  • 13. EY-Parthenon | Page 13 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 That said, “foreigners next door” grew to be common sight Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis Foreign nationals (million people, share of total population), and share of marriages with at least one foreigner Showa era Heisei era Others Korean Chinese Share of foreign nationals in total population Share of marriages where bride or groom is foreigner Historically implanted wariness that immigration will threaten preservation of cultural identity Immigration Control Act (2005) tightened requirements for some visas, causing decline in international marriages Japanese public begins accepting bicultural people as “Japanese” (e.g. Naomi Osaka)
  • 14. EY-Parthenon | Page 14 Last 6 years of Heisei era was colored with Abenomics… Source: EY-P analysis Arrow: Aggressive monetary policy • Deflation and uncompetitive yen limiting economic growth • Radical monetary easing by Bank of Japan and increasing inflation target to 2% • Need for short-term boost to the stagnant economy • A special budget of $135bn and increased spending on infrastructure • Need for modernized system past high-growth era • Improve on corporate governance • Make labor market flexible • Promote Deregulation Driver: Policies: Expansionary fiscal policy Structural Reform And Growth 1st Arrow 2nd Arrow 3rd Arrow Debt Deflation Demographics
  • 15. EY-Parthenon | Page 15 …built on an exceptionally long and stable power base of second Abe administration Source: Nippon.com, Feel Japan, EY-P analysis State leaders by tenure in Heisei era 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Japan US China Germany President Trump (2017 – ) President Xi (2013 – ) Chancellor Merkel (2005 – ) Prime Minister Abe (2012 - ) Prime Minister Abe’s first term
  • 16. EY-Parthenon | Page 16 So far Japan has been “eye of typhoon” in the global populist movement Note: (1) as of 2018 Source: Institute for Global Change, Bloomberg, The Guardian, NY Times, EY-P analysis Populism on the rise globally1… …but little demand for populist ideology in Japan Japan Low immigration Low crime rate Modest levels of inequality (rural areas well represented politically) Weak progressivism (little backlash) Relatively stable economy / employment ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Currently in power Party in parliament
  • 17. EY-Parthenon | Page 17 In this relative calmness, did Abenomics work? Answer is mixed Note: Not an exhaustive list of metrics with government target; (1) 2017 figure Source: JETRO, OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Macro Advisors, FRED Economic Research, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis 2012 2018 Govt target Labor force Million people 62.7 66.5 Unemployment rate % 8,802 23,098 Wages YoY % -0.40% 0.80% Inflation rate Annual growth rate % -0.05% 0.98% 2.00% (earliest possible time) Female labor force participation rate % 63% 69% Women in managerial positions % 11.1% 12.9% 30% (2020) Real GDP Trillion JPY (annual growth rate %) 499 (1.5%) 538 (0.87%) 2% growth (earliest possible time) Nikkei Closing price 8,802 23,098 Outbound FDI Billion USD 120 1691 Inbound GDI Trillion JPY 18.1 28.6 35 (2020) Competitiveness IMD World Competitiveness Ranking 27 25 Tourists and spend Million people 8 31 40 (2020) Trillion JPY 1.1 4.5 8 (2020) Good for economy / exceeding target Can be improved
  • 18. EY-Parthenon | Page 18 While Japan Inc. has “globalized” through robust outbound FDI… Note: (1) 112 JPY = 1 USD Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, EY analysis Revenue from FDI vs exports1 (billion USD) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016 Exports from Japan Revenue Japanese companies’ overseas subsidiaries Benefits Ability to meet existing or growing demand in local market Lower cost✔ ✔
  • 19. EY-Parthenon | Page 19 …potential growth rate has not recovered within Heisei Source: Bank of Japan Potential growth rate (y/y % change, contribution to the potential growth rate %) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Total factor productivity Capital stock Hours worked Number of employed Potential growth rate ‘83 ‘85 ‘87 ‘89 ‘91 ‘93 ‘95 ‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 ‘13 ‘15 ‘17 Showa era Heisei era “Abenomics” Percent(%)
  • 20. EY-Parthenon | Page 20 Heisei era marked a definitive shift in Japanese psyche Source: EY-P analysis High growth Confidence Homogeneity Maturity Insecurity Diversity Aged demographic Fell behind as economic superpower Untangled historical cross- shareholding culture Irregular workers spiked Fertility decreased Single-person households became commonplace Foreign nationals increased Earthquakes affected post-war peace Late 1980s… …to now
  • 21. EY-Parthenon | Page 21 Agenda Heisei era through a kaleidoscope Growth levers • Innovation • Productivity • Gender diversity 1 2
  • 22. EY-Parthenon | Page 22 In terms of commercializing innovation, IPO in Japan has been overshadowed by China Note: (1) Defined as a start-up valued at over $1bn Source: Research Institute of Economy, CB Insights, Trade, and Industry, University of Florida, Japan Exchange Group, EY analysis Number of IPOs by country 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 China US Japan Heisei era Number of “unicorns1” (2019) 1 6 9 13 17 40 80152 81 Japan S. Korea Germany India UK China US Innovation
  • 23. EY-Parthenon | Page 23 Even more concerning is slow-down in basic research funding Source: World Bank, OECD, National Science Board, EY analysis R&D as a % of GDP Share of patents granted by US Patent & Trademark Office China US Japan EU S. Korea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% China US Japan Germany S. Korea Australia Innovation
  • 24. EY-Parthenon | Page 24 Innovation comes in many flavors. Japan needs to choose a model that works for them Source: EY-P analysis Number of unicorns (2019) Innovation Formula for innovation… 152 US Entrepreneurism Risk capital • VC 36% of GDP 81 China One party system • Agile regulation “Copy to make better” Entrepreneurism 9 Germany High quality SMEs Government support • Fraunhofer Institute Japan Post Heisei, what model works for Japan? 1
  • 25. EY-Parthenon | Page 25 24.5 41 Will tapping into new labor cohorts improve Japan’s low productivity? Note: (1) 2013, latest data available Source: World Bank, OECD, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY analysis Average labor hours per week (2017) 26.1 34.2 Productivity (2017)Labor force by full-time / part-time (2017) 16.0 28.8 27.4 134.7 Japan US Germany $41.9 $64.1 $60.5 GDP / hours (USD) • Seniors • Women • Foreigners Regular worker avg Labor force avg Labor force avg Labor force avg 32.9 38.9Regular worker avg1 Labor force avg Lighter shade indicates part-time workers Productivity
  • 26. EY-Parthenon | Page 26 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Irregular workers as they are today can be an easy clutch preempting productivity increase in long run Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Times Labor force by employment status and unemployment rate (million people, %) Showa era Heisei era Irregular Regular Irregular Regular Unemploymentrate 9/2015: Revised Worker Dispatch Act • New term limit of 3 years / person • To extend, must be permanent contract Productivity
  • 27. EY-Parthenon | Page 27 On the surface, “womenomics” can be boasted as a success… Source: OECD, Congressional Research Service, EY-P analysis What is? Outcome 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017 Germany Japan US OECD avg “Womenomics” Labor force participation rate (age 15 – 64) “Womenomics” 74% 69% 68% 64% Abenomics: 3rd Arrow Structural reforms, focusing on boosting economic growth through reforms and policies to encourage the participation and advancement of women in the Japanese workforce Policies include… Help with child care • Fix daycare shortages • Expand childcare leave benefits (in 2014, increased payment to new parents from 50% to 67% of their salary during the first six months of parental leave) Encouragement of female promotions • Support companies that encourage female employees to pursue both career and family through subsidies and tax measures • Encourage companies to disclose info concerning the promotion of women Concrete targets for female labor participation • Increase participation of women (aged 25 – 44) to 73% by 2020 • Increase the percentage of women in leadership positions from 10% to 30% by 2020 (goal has been since revised to ~13%) Gender diversity
  • 28. EY-Parthenon | Page 28 $ $ …but women still face a severe disadvantage Source: OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis Fewer benefits… More housework…Less money… Total labor (m people), irregular share Wage gap (2017) Hours : minutes spent on housework per day (2016 unless otherwise noted) 0.90 0.86 0.85 0.82 0.76 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Japan US Germany France Australia 2.3 2.9 2.5 2.5 0.7 3.7 5.2 4.4 4.1 3.7 2012 36.1, 20% 26.7, 54% 2018 37.1, 22% 29.7, 56% 3:44 0:41 4:03 2:30 2:30 2:52 2:15 4:26 5:11 3:44 (2006) (2010) Gender diversity
  • 29. EY-Parthenon | Page 29 Japanese may be equally responsible for inequality influenced by unconscious bias Note: (1) Includes both undergraduate and graduate Source: OECD, Times Higher Education, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Tokyo University, University of Melbourne, Unesco, EY-P analysis Enrollment by gender1 (2017) 76% 66% 50% 49% 44% 37% 24% 34% 50% 51% 56% 63% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Tokyo University Tsinghua University Oxford University Harvard University Melbourne University LMU Munich Tertiary education by gender 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gross enrollment ratio (%) Gender diversity
  • 30. EY-Parthenon | Page 30 Promote innovation To overcome post-Heisei challenges… Source: EY-P analysis Improve productivity Embrace diversity Government can help set innovation framework • Provide state-funded R&D facilities across country • Encourage competition between regions / R&D centers R&D clusters can help SMEs, which are often strapped for resources • Hidden gems likely to be revealed 1 2 Abolish dual track employment system • Allow flexible transition between full time and part time • Instill same work same pay principle 1 Revise evaluation system to reward output instead of facetime 2 Accelerate parity • Promote women • Invest in pipeline 1 Promote level playing field at all levels • Universities • Work • Home 2 …resulting in a revitalized, stimulated Japan for the next era

Notas do Editor

  1. https://www.imarcgroup.com/japan-generic-drug-market
  2. http://www.tobaccolabels.ca/countries/united-states/ https://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/Labeling/MarketingandAdvertising/default.htm https://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Retail/ucm616134.htm https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/health/fda-juul-altria-youth-vaping.html https://www.tobaccoasia.com/features/what-lies-ahead-for-iqos/ http://www.globalprice.info/en/?p=statistics/bigmac https://biz-journal.jp/2017/04/post_18724_2.html https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/14/national/media-national/media-sidesteps-calling-japan-tobacco-advertising-conflicts/#.XFG4_1wzZPZ
  3. https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/news/costliest-natural-disasters/index.html https://www.mcdougallinsurance.com/2014/10/30/5-most-expensive-natural-disasters https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-most-expensive-disasters-of-all-time.html http://aqworks.com/en/blog/2011/03/23/infographics-roundup-2011-tohoku-earthquake-and-tsunami/ https://www.kenken.go.jp/english/contents/topics/japan-journal/pdf/jj2011dec_22-27.pdf https://edition.cnn.com/2013/07/17/world/asia/japan-earthquake---tsunami-fast-facts/index.html https://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/2011/mar/14/nikkei-falls-japan-earthquake-tsunami https://www.theguardian.com/world/2011/mar/13/japan-economy-recession-earthquake-tsunami
  4. https://www.asmarq.co.jp/mini_research/mr201706smoker.html https://www.asmarq.co.jp/mini_research/mr201706non-smoker.html
  5. https://fxssi.com/top-10-most-valuable-companies-in-the-world https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/audit-services/assets/pdf/global-top-100-companies-2018-report.pdf https://qz.com/1331995/walmart-is-the-worlds-biggest-company-apple-isnt-in-the-top-10/ https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DmWxoc9XcAAluHi.jpg https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/9g0osb/largest_companies_in_the_world_by_market_cap_1980/
  6. https://ecigintelligence.com/japanese-rules-favour-heated-tobacco-products-over-e-cigarettes/ https://www.globaltobaccocontrol.org/e-cigarette/japan
  7. http://www.tobaccolabels.ca/countries/united-states/ https://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/Labeling/MarketingandAdvertising/default.htm https://www.fda.gov/TobaccoProducts/GuidanceComplianceRegulatoryInformation/Retail/ucm616134.htm https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/health/fda-juul-altria-youth-vaping.html https://www.tobaccoasia.com/features/what-lies-ahead-for-iqos/ http://www.globalprice.info/en/?p=statistics/bigmac https://biz-journal.jp/2017/04/post_18724_2.html https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/14/national/media-national/media-sidesteps-calling-japan-tobacco-advertising-conflicts/#.XFG4_1wzZPZ
  8. https://www.jil.go.jp/kokunai/statistics/timeseries/html/g0212.html
  9. https://www.tioj.or.jp/data/pdf/180420_02.pdf
  10. http://www.pewglobal.org/interactives/international-migrants-by-country/ http://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/09/14/facts-on-u-s-immigrants/
  11. https://ecigintelligence.com/japanese-rules-favour-heated-tobacco-products-over-e-cigarettes/ https://www.globaltobaccocontrol.org/e-cigarette/japan
  12. https://www.tioj.or.jp/data/pdf/180420_02.pdf
  13. https://www.nippon.com/en/in-depth/a02302/why-do-japan-and-italy-change-prime-ministers-so-often.html http://feel-japan.net/?p=6000
  14. https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2018/nov/20/revealed-one-in-four-europeans-vote-populist https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/canada-shielded-from-the-populist-wave-no-longer/
  15. https://www.japanmacroadvisors.com/page/category/economic-indicators/gdp-and-business-activity/nominal-gdp/ https://www.japanmacroadvisors.com/page/category/economic-indicators/inflation-and-prices/cpi/ https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/events/16071201/pdf/08_am2-3-1_maeda.pdf https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNRGDPEXP#0 https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-forecast.htm
  16. https://ecigintelligence.com/japanese-rules-favour-heated-tobacco-products-over-e-cigarettes/ https://www.globaltobaccocontrol.org/e-cigarette/japan
  17. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/research/research_data/gap/index.htm/
  18. https://ecigintelligence.com/japanese-rules-favour-heated-tobacco-products-over-e-cigarettes/ https://www.globaltobaccocontrol.org/e-cigarette/japan
  19. https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/listing-on-tse/new/basic/04_archives-01.html
  20. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=CN-JP-US-DE https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/After-Mercari-Japanese-unicorns-closer-to-extinction https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/data/sources https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/10/australias-spending-on-research-plummets-far-below-oecd-average
  21. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=CN-JP-US-DE https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/After-Mercari-Japanese-unicorns-closer-to-extinction https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/data/sources https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2018/07/29/china-startups-brace-for-capital-winter-as-vc-funding-slows/#571a8ff85bb8
  22. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=CN-JP-US-DE https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/After-Mercari-Japanese-unicorns-closer-to-extinction https://www.nsf.gov/statistics/2018/nsb20181/data/sources
  23. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/08/17/national/many-temp-workers-see-contracts-terminated-september-due-staffing-law/#.XGVgD1wzZPY https://www.nishinippon.co.jp/nnp/photo/show/303270/
  24. https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R43668.pdf
  25. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/20/australian-women-spend-twice-as-much-time-on-childcare-and-chores-than-men
  26. https://www.timeshighereducation.com/world-university-rankings/2019/world-ranking#!/page/1/length/25/sort_by/rank/sort_order/asc/cols/stats http://uis.unesco.org/country/JP https://www.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/about/enrollment.html
  27. https://ecigintelligence.com/japanese-rules-favour-heated-tobacco-products-over-e-cigarettes/ https://www.globaltobaccocontrol.org/e-cigarette/japan