The document discusses key trends in Japan during the Heisei era (1989-2019) compared to the previous Showa era. Some of the major changes included Japan being overtaken as the world's second largest economy by China, losing its position as home to the most valuable companies globally, and facing challenges from an aging and declining population that strained public finances and the labor force. The last part of the Heisei era saw Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic program known as "Abenomics" attempt to boost growth through monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms, with mixed results according to various economic metrics.
Public Lecture Slides (3.5.2019) The Heisei Era: Radical Change or Prolonged Sclerosis?
1. The Heisei Era: Radical Change or
Prolonged Sclerosis?
Temple University
March 5, 2019
2. EY-Parthenon | Page 2
I try to make sense of Japan, and therefore the world
Source: EY Parthenon
• Japanese
Corporations
• Multi-Nationals
• M&A
• Strategy
• Organization
• Consumer sector
• Nikkei Asian
Review
• Bloomberg
• BBC
• Conferences
Management
Consulting
Writing & Speaking
Part of Japanese problem is narrative deficiency
My Value Proposition
3. EY-Parthenon | Page 3
Agenda
Heisei era through a kaleidoscope
Growth levers
1
2
4. EY-Parthenon | Page 4
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
1949-06-01
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2010-06-01
2011-06-01
2012-06-01
2013-06-01
2014-06-01
2015-06-01
2016-06-01
2017-06-01
2018-06-01
The crash, a catalyst for “lost,” or turbulent decades?
Note: (1) not an exhaustive list of historical milestones
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Bloomberg, Mizuho Research Institute, EY analysis
Historical timeline (Nikkei average)
1995
January: Great Hanshin
Earthquake
March: Domestic cultattack
1964
Tokyo Olympics
1985
Bubble economy
begins
2012
Launch of
Abenomics
1973
First oil shock
Showa era (1926 – 1989) Heisei era (1989 – 2019)
1990
Bubble economy collapses
2011
Great East Japan Earthquake
2008
Financial crisis
1952
Treaty of San Francisco signed,
ending American occupation of
Japan
5. EY-Parthenon | Page 5
4
Two earthquakes within Heisei were economically and psychologically damaging
Source: CNN, McDouglall Insurance, World Atlas, The Guardian, Japan Journal
Top 5 costliest natural disasters in history (billion USD)
Costs (billion USD)
Buildings
(homes, offices,
factories etc.)
12
3 5
$223
2011: Great East Japan
Earthquake / Tsunami
$98
1995: Great Hanshin
Earthquake
$148
2008: Sichuan
Earthquake
$160
2005: Hurricane
Katrina
$108
2017: Hurricane
Harvey
Lifeline facilities
(water, gas,
telecom etc..)
Great East Japan
Earthquake / Tsunami
Great Hanshin
Earthquake
Infrastructure
(roads,
airports etc.)
Other
(agriculture,
forestry etc..)
179 63
9 9
18 18
18 9
TOTAL 223 98
6. EY-Parthenon | Page 6
Showa era Heisei era
During Heisei, Japan was dethroned as second largest economy by China…
Note: (1) includes Germany, UK, France
Source: World Bank, EY-P analysis
GDP (current USD)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
USROW Japan China EU1GDP value
GDP share Japan China US
TrillionUSD
GDPshare(%)
Due to…
• Japan’s weakened domestic demand
and drop in exports
• China’s manufacturing boom
7. EY-Parthenon | Page 7
…and also lost its status of having the most valuable companies in the world
Source: Quartz, FXSSI, Charlie Bilello, EY-P analysis
1980 1990 2000 2010 2018
1 IBM
Nippon Telegraph &
Telephone (NTT)
Microsoft PetroChina Apple
2 AT&T
Bank of Tokyo -
Mitsubishi
General Electric Exxon Mobil Amazon
3 Exxon
Industrial Bank of
Japan
NTT Docomo Microsoft Microsoft
4 Standard Oil
Sumitomo Mitsui
Banking
Cisco ICBC Alphabet
5 Schlumberger Toyota Motors Walmart Walmart Berkshire Hathaway
6 Shell Fuji Bank Intel
China Construction
Bank
Facebook
7 Mobil Daiichi Kangyo Bank
Nippon Telegraph &
Telephone (NTT)
BHP Billiton Alibaba
8 Atlantic Richfield IBM Exxon Mobil HSBC Tencent
9 General Electric UFJ Bank Lucent Petrobras JP Morgan Chase
10 Eastman Kodak Exxon Deutsche Telecom Apple Johnson & Johnson
Largest companies globally by market cap
Heisei era
8. EY-Parthenon | Page 8
Growing financial instability led to later aged marriages and fewer births
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, World Bank, EY-P analysis
Number of marriages (Japan) and fertility rate (total births per woman) by country
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Showa era Heisei era
Thousandmarriages
China
US
Japan
28 26 31 29
1990
Mean age of first
marriage:
2017
9. EY-Parthenon | Page 9
30 30 28 26 25 27 28 26 22 20 18 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8
50
55 60 67 72
76 79 83 86 87 86 84
81
76
73
71
68
63
58
54
50
47 44
4
5
5
6
7
9
11
12 15 18 22 26 29
33
36
37
37
37
39
39
38
36
35
12.1
11.5
11.2
10.8
9.8
8.5
7.4
6.6
5.8
4.8
3.9
3.3
2.8
2.3
2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Showa era Heisei era
Japan’s dwlindling workforce is now struggling to support ballooning elderly population
Source: Mitsubishi UFJ, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Statistics Bureau of Japan, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Reuters
15 - 64
65+
0 - 14
99
105
94
112
97
107
102
121
124
117
90
84
121
87
92
127127127 125
112
117
125123
Workers per
beneficiary
Total population by age bracket (Million people, ratio of workers to beneficiaries)
Forecast
Government grappling with…
Severe labor
shortages
Increasing
welfare costs
Shrinking tax
base
10. EY-Parthenon | Page 10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Showa era Heisei era
As a result, dual-income households becoming a necessity, and those without children
becoming commonplace
Note: (1) “Single income household” indicates those which husband is non-agricultural forestry employee and wife is unemployed; “Dual income” indicates non-agricultural employers for both husband and wife; (2)
Includes three generation households
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis
Household composition and share of dual income households1 (millions of households, %)
Single person
Couple only
Parent(s) with
child(ren)2
37.5
39.4
41.2
40.8
44.5
45.7
46.3 48.0 48.6
50.1 50.4 50.4 49.9 50.4
33%
51%
Single middle-aged men Elderly females
Single person households will
continue increasing, driven by:
Dual-income
household
Single-income
household
Other
11. EY-Parthenon | Page 11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Despite turmoil, Japan’s population remains largely middle class…
Note: (1) Japan figures between 2010 – 2013 estimated based on data points from 2009 and 2014
Source: Credit Suisse, World Inequality Database, EY-P analysis
Wealth shares by country (Household)
USJapan
Distribution of adults by wealth range (% of adults,
USD)
Bottom 90%
Top 1%
Bottom 90%
Top 1%
Over 1 million
100,000 –
1 million
10,000 –
100,000
Under
10,000
Japan’s1 bottom 90% still holds 48% more wealth than the top 1%
In the US, bottom 90% now holds 10% less wealth than the top 1%
2018
12. EY-Parthenon | Page 12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1990 2000 2010 2017
…and still largely homogenous
Source: Pew Research, Federal Statistical Office Germany (for second-generation statistics), EY-P
Share of population that is foreign born
Japan
Germany
China
US
Including
second-
gen
Including
second-
gen
Australia
13. EY-Parthenon | Page 13
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
That said, “foreigners next door” grew to be common sight
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis
Foreign nationals (million people, share of total population), and share of marriages with at least one foreigner
Showa era Heisei era
Others
Korean
Chinese
Share of foreign
nationals in total
population
Share of marriages
where bride or
groom is foreigner
Historically implanted wariness that
immigration will threaten preservation of
cultural identity
Immigration Control Act (2005) tightened
requirements for some visas, causing decline in
international marriages
Japanese public begins accepting
bicultural people as “Japanese” (e.g.
Naomi Osaka)
14. EY-Parthenon | Page 14
Last 6 years of Heisei era was colored with Abenomics…
Source: EY-P analysis
Arrow:
Aggressive
monetary
policy
• Deflation and uncompetitive yen limiting
economic growth
• Radical monetary easing by Bank of
Japan and increasing inflation target to
2%
• Need for short-term boost to the
stagnant economy
• A special budget of $135bn and
increased spending on infrastructure
• Need for modernized system past
high-growth era
• Improve on corporate governance
• Make labor market flexible
• Promote Deregulation
Driver: Policies:
Expansionary
fiscal policy
Structural
Reform
And Growth
1st Arrow
2nd Arrow
3rd Arrow
Debt
Deflation
Demographics
15. EY-Parthenon | Page 15
…built on an exceptionally long and stable power base of second Abe administration
Source: Nippon.com, Feel Japan, EY-P analysis
State leaders by tenure in Heisei era
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Japan
US
China
Germany
President
Trump
(2017 – )
President Xi
(2013 – )
Chancellor Merkel
(2005 – )
Prime Minister Abe
(2012 - )
Prime Minister Abe’s
first term
16. EY-Parthenon | Page 16
So far Japan has been “eye of typhoon” in the global populist movement
Note: (1) as of 2018
Source: Institute for Global Change, Bloomberg, The Guardian, NY Times, EY-P analysis
Populism on the rise globally1…
…but little demand for populist
ideology in Japan
Japan
Low immigration
Low crime rate
Modest levels of inequality
(rural areas well represented politically)
Weak progressivism
(little backlash)
Relatively stable economy /
employment
✔
✔
✔
✔
✔
Currently in power
Party in parliament
17. EY-Parthenon | Page 17
In this relative calmness, did Abenomics work? Answer is mixed
Note: Not an exhaustive list of metrics with government target; (1) 2017 figure
Source: JETRO, OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Macro Advisors, FRED Economic Research, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY-P analysis
2012 2018 Govt target
Labor force Million people 62.7 66.5
Unemployment rate % 8,802 23,098
Wages YoY % -0.40% 0.80%
Inflation rate Annual growth rate % -0.05% 0.98% 2.00% (earliest
possible time)
Female labor force
participation rate
% 63% 69%
Women in managerial
positions
% 11.1% 12.9% 30% (2020)
Real GDP
Trillion JPY
(annual growth rate %) 499 (1.5%) 538 (0.87%) 2% growth (earliest
possible time)
Nikkei Closing price 8,802 23,098
Outbound FDI Billion USD 120 1691
Inbound GDI Trillion JPY 18.1 28.6 35 (2020)
Competitiveness
IMD World Competitiveness
Ranking 27 25
Tourists and spend
Million people 8 31 40 (2020)
Trillion JPY 1.1 4.5 8 (2020)
Good for economy / exceeding target
Can be improved
18. EY-Parthenon | Page 18
While Japan Inc. has “globalized” through robust outbound FDI…
Note: (1) 112 JPY = 1 USD
Source: Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, EY analysis
Revenue from FDI vs exports1 (billion USD)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
19971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Exports from Japan
Revenue Japanese
companies’
overseas
subsidiaries
Benefits
Ability to meet existing or growing
demand in local market
Lower cost✔
✔
19. EY-Parthenon | Page 19
…potential growth rate has not recovered within Heisei
Source: Bank of Japan
Potential growth rate (y/y % change, contribution to the potential growth rate %)
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Total factor productivity Capital stock Hours worked Number of employed Potential growth rate
‘83 ‘85 ‘87 ‘89 ‘91 ‘93 ‘95 ‘97 ‘99 ‘01 ‘03 ‘05 ‘07 ‘09 ‘11 ‘13 ‘15 ‘17
Showa era Heisei era
“Abenomics”
Percent(%)
20. EY-Parthenon | Page 20
Heisei era marked a definitive shift in Japanese psyche
Source: EY-P analysis
High growth
Confidence
Homogeneity
Maturity
Insecurity
Diversity
Aged demographic
Fell behind as economic
superpower
Untangled historical cross-
shareholding culture
Irregular workers spiked
Fertility decreased
Single-person households became
commonplace
Foreign nationals increased
Earthquakes affected post-war
peace
Late 1980s… …to now
21. EY-Parthenon | Page 21
Agenda
Heisei era through a kaleidoscope
Growth levers
• Innovation
• Productivity
• Gender diversity
1
2
22. EY-Parthenon | Page 22
In terms of commercializing innovation, IPO in Japan has been overshadowed by China
Note: (1) Defined as a start-up valued at over $1bn
Source: Research Institute of Economy, CB Insights, Trade, and Industry, University of Florida, Japan Exchange Group, EY analysis
Number of IPOs by country
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
China
US
Japan
Heisei era
Number of “unicorns1” (2019)
1
6
9
13
17
40
80152
81
Japan
S. Korea
Germany
India
UK
China
US
Innovation
23. EY-Parthenon | Page 23
Even more concerning is slow-down in basic research funding
Source: World Bank, OECD, National Science Board, EY analysis
R&D as a % of GDP
Share of patents granted by US Patent & Trademark
Office
China
US
Japan
EU
S. Korea
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
China
US
Japan
Germany
S. Korea
Australia
Innovation
24. EY-Parthenon | Page 24
Innovation comes in many flavors. Japan needs to choose a model that works for them
Source: EY-P analysis
Number of
unicorns
(2019)
Innovation
Formula for innovation…
152
US
Entrepreneurism
Risk capital
• VC 36% of GDP
81
China
One party system
• Agile regulation
“Copy to make better”
Entrepreneurism
9
Germany
High quality SMEs
Government support
• Fraunhofer Institute
Japan
Post Heisei, what model works for Japan? 1
25. EY-Parthenon | Page 25
24.5 41
Will tapping into new labor cohorts improve Japan’s low productivity?
Note: (1) 2013, latest data available
Source: World Bank, OECD, Japan Institute for Labor Policy and Training, EY analysis
Average labor hours per week (2017)
26.1
34.2
Productivity (2017)Labor force by full-time / part-time (2017)
16.0
28.8
27.4
134.7
Japan
US
Germany
$41.9
$64.1
$60.5
GDP / hours (USD)
• Seniors
• Women
• Foreigners
Regular worker avg
Labor force avg
Labor force avg
Labor force avg
32.9
38.9Regular worker avg1
Labor force avg
Lighter shade indicates part-time workers
Productivity
26. EY-Parthenon | Page 26
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Irregular workers as they are today can be an easy clutch preempting productivity
increase in long run
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Japan Times
Labor force by employment status and unemployment rate (million people, %)
Showa era Heisei era
Irregular
Regular
Irregular
Regular
Unemploymentrate
9/2015: Revised Worker Dispatch Act
• New term limit of 3 years / person
• To extend, must be permanent contract
Productivity
27. EY-Parthenon | Page 27
On the surface, “womenomics” can be boasted as a success…
Source: OECD, Congressional Research Service, EY-P analysis
What is? Outcome
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
2005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017
Germany
Japan
US
OECD avg
“Womenomics”
Labor force participation rate (age 15 – 64)
“Womenomics”
74%
69%
68%
64%
Abenomics:
3rd Arrow
Structural
reforms,
focusing on
boosting
economic
growth
through
reforms and
policies to
encourage the
participation
and
advancement
of women in
the Japanese
workforce
Policies include…
Help with child care
• Fix daycare shortages
• Expand childcare leave benefits (in 2014,
increased payment to new parents from 50% to
67% of their salary during the first six months of
parental leave)
Encouragement of
female promotions
• Support companies that encourage female
employees to pursue both career and family
through subsidies and tax measures
• Encourage companies to disclose info concerning
the promotion of women
Concrete targets for
female labor
participation
• Increase participation of women (aged 25 – 44)
to 73% by 2020
• Increase the percentage of women in leadership
positions from 10% to 30% by 2020 (goal has
been since revised to ~13%)
Gender diversity
28. EY-Parthenon | Page 28
$
$
…but women still face a severe disadvantage
Source: OECD, Statistics Bureau of Japan, EY-P analysis
Fewer benefits… More housework…Less money…
Total labor (m people), irregular share Wage gap (2017)
Hours : minutes spent on housework per day
(2016 unless otherwise noted)
0.90
0.86
0.85
0.82
0.76
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Japan
US
Germany
France
Australia
2.3
2.9
2.5
2.5
0.7
3.7
5.2
4.4
4.1
3.7
2012
36.1,
20%
26.7,
54%
2018
37.1,
22%
29.7,
56%
3:44
0:41
4:03
2:30
2:30
2:52
2:15
4:26
5:11
3:44
(2006)
(2010)
Gender diversity
29. EY-Parthenon | Page 29
Japanese may be equally responsible for inequality influenced by unconscious bias
Note: (1) Includes both undergraduate and graduate
Source: OECD, Times Higher Education, Harvard, Stanford, Oxford, Tokyo University, University of Melbourne, Unesco, EY-P analysis
Enrollment by gender1 (2017)
76%
66%
50%
49%
44%
37%
24%
34%
50%
51%
56%
63%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Tokyo University
Tsinghua University
Oxford University
Harvard University
Melbourne University
LMU Munich
Tertiary education by gender
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross enrollment ratio (%)
Gender diversity
30. EY-Parthenon | Page 30
Promote innovation
To overcome post-Heisei challenges…
Source: EY-P analysis
Improve productivity Embrace diversity
Government can help set
innovation framework
• Provide state-funded R&D
facilities across country
• Encourage competition between
regions / R&D centers
R&D clusters can help SMEs, which
are often strapped for resources
• Hidden gems likely to be
revealed
1
2
Abolish dual track employment
system
• Allow flexible transition
between full time and part time
• Instill same work same pay
principle
1
Revise evaluation system to reward
output instead of facetime
2
Accelerate parity
• Promote women
• Invest in pipeline
1
Promote level playing field at all
levels
• Universities
• Work
• Home
2
…resulting in a revitalized, stimulated Japan for the next era