Saadullah Ayaz

1. Food Security and Present Threat
Posed by Climate Change
Saadullah Ayaz
IUCN- Pakistan, April 2010
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

2. Development Concerns of Pakistan
1. Nearly one-quarter of the population in Pakistan is
classified as poor (World Resource Institute 2007)
- Human Development Index is 0.539
- 74 percent population living under $2 a day
- GDP~ 125th in World
2. Agriculture contributes to 24 percent of the GDP and
employs 46% population~ dependent on water
3. Low forest cover (4.5%)~ deforestation= 0.2- 0.4 %
per annum
4. Pakistan among the 17 countries facing water
shortages and is among the 36 countries having
serious threat of food crisis (WB 2009)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

3. Climate Change Impacts on Pakistan
1. 12th country most vulnerable to climate change (Maplecroft 2007)
2. Losing at least 5% of GDP each year (may be upto 20%)
3. Emission share~ 0.43% of world’s total (135th ranking)
4. Temperature rise= 0.6 to 1.0° (since early 1900s) (IPCC 2007)
C
5. Decrease in precipitation=10 to 15% (last 40 years) (IPCC 2007)
6. Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years, in
decrease of flows by up to 30 to 40% (GCISC 2008)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

4. Food Security and Pakistan
1. Pakistan, ranked 11th on the index, is at “extreme risk” (Food Security Risk
Index, UN 2009)
2. About one-third of the households in Pakistan are living below the ‘food
poverty line’ (not meeting their nutritional requirements) (Mazhar Arif 2007)
3. Out of 120 district settings in Pakistan, 74 (62%) are food deficit in terms of
net availability (SDPI 2003)
4. Droughts, floods, cyclones and pests (all related to CC) can quickly wipe out
large quantities of food as it grows or is stored- further adding to food
insecurity
5. Agriculture production in Pak rises by less than 1% annually (FAO 2006)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

5. Climate Change Impacts in
relation to Agriculture and Food Security
1. Climate Change will increase variability in normal monsoon patterns
(GCISC 2008)
2. More rapid recession of Himalayan- Karakoram Glaciers than predicated,
threatening Indus River System Flows (GCISC 2008).
3. Likelihood of glaciers disappearing by the year 2035 is very high
(international Commission of Snow and Water, 1999)
4. Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in snowline (threats to
irrigated agriculture)
5. Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions resulting in
food Insecurity due to reduced agriculture productivity (GCISC 2008)
6. Not much data/ research information available for Pakistan
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

6. Impact of rise in temperature on wheat Growing
Season Length in Northern and Southern Pakistan
Temperature Growing Season Length (Days)
(˚C Northern Pakistan Southern Pakistan
increase
Mountainous Sub-Mountainous Plains Plains
over Region Region (Semi-arid) (Arid)
baseline) (Humid) (Sub-humid)
Baseline 246 161 146 137
1 232 155 140 132
2 221 149 135 127
3 211 144 130 123
4 202 138 125 118
5 194 133 121 113
Finding: Decreasing Trend in number of days in Growing season (Source: GCISC)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

7. Change in Wheat Yield in Different Agro-climatic
Zones of Pakistan with variation in Temperature
6500
Temperature Effect
5500
Wheat Yield (kg/ha)
4500
3500
2500
1500
base 1 2 3 4 5
o
Temperature increase ( C)
Source: GCISC
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

8. Effects Of Climate Events On Wheat Production
In Rain-fed Areas of Pakistan
Cropping Yield Economic Cost
Year (kg/ ha) % change Climate Events
(Rs. Mill)
1999-2000 1319 -25 Drought Year 2685.9
2000-01 534 -70 Drought +
3026.1
Terminal heat stress
2001-02 717 -59 Drought +
3266.5
Terminal heat stress
2002-03 1310 -25 Drought Year 2281.1
2003-04 1321 -25 Terminal heat stress 2814.0
2004-05 1730 -1 169.0
2005-06 1354 -23 Terminal heat stress 3320.0
2006-07 1755 = Bumper Year 0.0
Source: Aslam and Asim, 2008
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

9. Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in
Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios
% Share in % Change in yield in 2080
Baseline Yield
Region National Scenario Scenario
(kg per ha)
Production A2 B2
(Northern
Mountainous) 2 2658 +50 +40
(Northern Sub-
mountainous) 9 3933 -11 -11
(Southern Semi
arid Plain) 42 4306 -8 -8
(Southern Arid
Plain) 47 4490 -5 -6
Total (Pakistan) 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4
Source: GCISC 2008
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

10. Expected Economic Losses in Wheat by 2080
due to CC and related factors
% share in Change Quantity Economic
Production Loss Loss
Regions national in yield
distribution
production (%) (000 t) (Rs. Mill.)
Northern
465.9 2 +4 186.4 4.43
Mountains
Northern
Sub- 2096.5 9 -11 -230.6 -5.48
mountainous
Southern
Semi Arid 9783.8 42 -8 -782.7 -18.59
Plains
Southern
10948.5 47 -6 -656.9 -15.60
Arid Plains
Total 23294.7 -1483.9 -35.24
Source: NARC (2008)
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

11. Salient findings
1. Expected temperature increase in Pakistan as
whole higher than the expected global average
increase.
2. Projected temperature increase in the north is
somewhat higher than in the south Pakistan.
3. Projected temperature increase in winter is more
than that in summer.
4. As yet it is not possible to get a clear picture for
precipitation change, due to large model
uncertainties.
5. The yields of both wheat and rice will decrease
everywhere except in the Northern Mountainous
areas where wheat yield will increase.
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

12. Recommendations
1. Initiate adaptation measures/ access to international funds
2. Increase water use efficiency, enhance water reservoir capacity
3. Improved governance structure
4. Strengthening of Ministry of Environment, ministry of Food
Agriculture and Livestock
5. Strengthen research base and agricultural extension services
6. Invest in dry- land, arid agriculture
7. Control exponential population growth
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

13. Recommendations (contd…)
8. Comprehensive ‘Food Security Strategy’- Pro- Poor concerns integrated
9. Improve access to food, through the development of social protection
schemes such as minimum wage, unemployment
benefits, “food-for-work” programmes, basic health care and agricultural
insurance
10. Investments in sustainable agriculture and small scale farmers will be
extremely important,
11. Drought resistant varieties, alternate farming practices, reduce cultivation
of water intensive crops
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources

14. Thanks
IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources