Know a Leader - David Shaw - Rubber & Tyre

INTERVIEW WITH
DAVID SHAWCEO - Tire Industry Research
Know A
LEADERIn 10 Questions
Rubber & Tyre
http://rubbermachineryworld.com
11
Innovations in
Tyre Building 30
Machinery
Advice
24
India or
China?
21
Sustainable
Tyres15
Machinery
Developments

This quote aptly summarizes David Shaw. True leaders are
few and probably the main reason (when we find one!), we
look towards them for inspiration and guidance regularly.
(or Dave to his friends and well-wishers), is aDavid Shaw
tall leader and a global expert on the international tire
and rubber industry. I consider it a privilege to know him
and present his thoughts to you in this special edition.
Dave has studied tire manufacturing, raw materials,
processes and technologies and how they vary around the
world. This deep technical knowledge, built up over 25
years combined with a thorough understanding of
branding, pricing and distribution channels, gives him a
unique advantage to analyse regional and global strategies
in car, light truck, heavy truck & speciality tires.
With exceptional knowledge, clarity, relevance and
insight, Dave offer both overviews and detailed analyses
of companies, markets, sectors, segments and regions as a
strategy consultant.
Once you finish reading his passionate interview, you will
agree when I say that I felt sad, we could ask him only 10
questions under our format. But hey! you can always
reach Dave on his site .www.TireIndustryResearch.com
I hope you find this interview insightful and informative.
As always, I welcome your feedback on
rubbermachineryworld@gmail.com.
Best Regards
Prasanth Warrier
| Interviewer’s Note |
“A leader is one who knows the way,
goes the way and shows the way”
- John C. Maxwell
True leaders are few
and probably the
main reason (when
we find one!), we
look towards them
for inspiration and
guidance regularly.
3
rubbermachineri
rubbermachineryworld
+Rubbermachineryworld1
grp/home?gid=8252803
rubbermachineri
Know A Leader - Rubber Machinery World DEC 2015|

4
| LEADER - INTERVIEW |
“Soon after 1989, it became clear to
me that the rubber industry was one
that I enjoyed and wanted to be a
part of”

5
From Engineering Design EducationPW:
Officer to a global expert on the tyre and
rubber industry is an amazing transition.
Looking back, was this a goal-oriented
shift for you or an outcome of opportun-
ities that presented itself at various
moments of your career? Would you
highlight the keys for your success?
Very soon after I joined ERJ (EuropeanDS:
Rubber Journal) back in 1989, it became
clear to me that the rubber industry was
one that I enjoyed and wanted to be a part
of.
This industry is full of experts who have
been in the business for many years and
have an intimate understanding of the
behaviour of rubber, steel cord and other
ingredients. In addition, it is a relatively
small industry to the point where, after a
few years, you begin meeting the same
people at events from Hanover to Shanghai
and South Carolina to New Delhi.
Four years ago ERJ came under new
management. After some soul-searching, I
decided to leave and to set up on my own.
In that time, I have learned that the
PRASANTH WARRIER (PW): Hello David. First of all thank you for accepting an interview
with Rubber Machinery World (RMW) and sharing your thoughts.
Hi Prasanth. First, may I congratulate you on your initiatives in theDAVID SHAW (DS):
rubber machinery business. I have been following your progress and wish you the very
best of success in this new venture. Also, I feel honoured that you have invited me to
participate in this enterprise.
Thanks Dave. The pleasure and privilege is mine.PW:
industry is transforming due to geographic
changes and technological changes and that
there is a new type of person coming into
this industry who has great expertise in
sales or marketing, but needs rapid access to
knowledge and insights about the rubber
and tyre sector. Part of what I do is to help
those people with some analyses of different
aspects of this complicated industry.
When I set up my company, I saw a great
need in the industry for detailed insight into
a series of key issues. Those were, in order
of priority, sustainability issues and China. I
set out to write the definitive reports
analysing those issues – and a few others.
Those first two reports are now available
through my website at
www.TireIndustryResearch.com
As the editor of a leading journal, IPW:
believe you have met 'who's who' in the
industry over 25+ years. What were the
interesting experiences that deeply
influenced your thinking on tyre industry?
You are right – it has been a fascinatingDS:
ride. I have been fortunate indeed to meet

6
with hundreds of very senior people in
this industry and ask them difficult
questions. Perhaps even more surprising
is that these wonderful people have
found the time to respond to those
questions in thoughtful and considerate
ways.
In exchange, I hope that I can bring new
insights. Through conversations with
many people from different companies
and different parts of the industry, I hope
that I can explore the nature of this
integrated business all the way from raw
materials production to branding,
marketing and distribution.
For example, the way a tyre is made and
the machinery used to make it allows new
marketing messages. Equally, the way a
tyre is marketed has an impact on
manufacturing processes.
An example: in tyres the use of 3-dimen-
sional sipes delivers benefits in terms of
life, long-term performance characteristics
and handling, but that is only made
possible by new manufacturing techniques
such as 3-D printing for moulds and new
analytical techniques such as modelling of
the strength of rubber to minimise tearing
during de-moulding.
Another example is the increasing use of
silica and silanes in tread compounds.
From a marketing perspective, this
delivers better fuel economy and wet grip.
But in the manufacturing environment it
forces a change in the role of the internal
mixer. The mixer changes from a non-
reactive mechanical mixer into a reaction
vessel which has to deal with exothermic
reactions; increased corrosion and other
challenges.
You see all kinds of claims made by
marketing teams, and these often reflect
new technologies used in the manufacturing
environment. Conversely, requirements
from customers also drive changes in the
manufacturing department. Examples might
include the drive to better repeatability or
the requirement for short change-over times.
“Internal mixer
changes from a
non-reactive mechanical
mixer into a reaction vessel
which has to deal with
exothermic reactions;
increased corrosion and
other challenges.”
“For example, the way a tyre
is made and the machinery
used to make it allows new
marketing messages.”

One school of thought endorsed byPW:
another expert is that there have been
very few changes in tyre industry in the
last 100 years. Your views?
I saw your interview with JacobDS:
Peled. I like Jacob very much. He has
been a good friend and teacher to me and
has been in the business longer than I
have, so I have great respect for his views.
He is right to say that there has been
limited progress in the fundamental
design of much equipment in the tyre and
rubber industry, but I think his analysis
can be expanded.
We have seen huge improvements in the
detailed design. Productivity, repeatability
and process-flexibility have all improved
tremendously in the last couple of decades,
albeit in a series of incremental
improvements.
The introduction of consumer labelling for
tyres a few years ago in Japan, Korea and
the EU led to a near-revolution in the tyre
manufacturing side in which machinery
makers were asked to deliver equipment
that can make semi-finished components
and finished tyres with tight Cpk and Cpp
values.
Tyre building has changed massively –
not only with the introduction of radial
designs in the 1940s, but over the last
couple of decades the need for more
automation and faster size changes has led
to a transformation in the design of TBM
equipment and especially building drums.
Although mixers still use the same principles
as original designs of Thomas Hancock, the
power of the rotors, the heat transfer
capacity and the variety of rotor designs for
high shear, intensive mixing and other
processes show tremendous creativity and
development.
It so happens that I believe the internal
mixer is close to the end of its development
“Productivity, repeatability and
process- flexibility have all improved
tremendously in the last couple of
decades.”
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cycle. I think that in the near future we will
see some very significant developments in
mixing technology which can overcome
some of the limitations of internal mixers
when it comes to high-volume, highly disp-
ersive mixing of silica in solution SBR and
high molecular-weight Nd-BR compounds.
PW: Tyre design is a fascinating topic
though few people really understand the
differences in design between brands.
How has the tyre designs really changed
during the last 30 years as you witnessed
it? What were the key factors driving this
change?
In my opinion tyres today are barelyDS:
recognisable as cousins of their predecessors
from just a few decades ago. Of course, they
remain black and round, but the similarities
end there.
When I first started in this business in the
1980s the industry was reactive, moribund
and extremely slow to adopt change.
During the 1990s we saw a series of
innovations in tyre building starting with
Michelin's C3M, followed by Pirelli's MIRS,
Bridgestone's BIRD and other innovations.
These were driven by a requirement to
make short runs of tyres as tyre sizes
proliferated. Instead of making a
production run of 100,000 units, the typical
run fell to below 1000 units. Taking a half-
day to switch sizes was no longer economic,
so machinery makers sought to make
equipment which could change from a
14-inch size to a 17-inch size with no
downtime.
Most of those new production techniques –
C3M and the rest – were ultimately too slow
or too unreliable for continuous commercial
“During the 1990s we saw a
series of innovations in tyre building starting with Michelin's
C3M, followed by Pirelli's MIRS, Bridgestone's BIRD and other.”
11

12
use. Some of them are still are used for small
volume or speciality products. Meanwhile
the same drivers led more traditional
machinery suppliers to develop more
automated, more flexible equipment such
as the Exxium from VMI's MAXX portfolio.
Into the 2000s and we are seeing a total
revolution in materials technology. It started
with solution-SBRs and the new ability to
add functional groups. The revolution
continued with high molecular-weight
butadiene rubbers which are difficult to
mix and process, but offer better rolling
resistance than earlier polymers.
That revolution continues with nano-scale
fillers and their requirement for highly
dispersive mixing. Another driver is to use
sustainable materials in tyre manufacture.
These new materials include cornstarch,
orange oil, low-PAH process oils; new
resins, guayule-sourced natural rubber and
many, many more.
In the reinforcement segment we are now
seeing hybrid cords mixing aramid with
nylon, but also other combinations to
deliver combinations of strength and shock
absorption. Steel cord has moved from high
tensile to ultra-tensile with a consequent
reduction in mass of steel and reduction in
complexity of wires, but also thinner,
stronger wires mean less rubber is needed
to coat them.
Many of these innovations are driven by a
deep need to improve the fundamental
physics of filled rubber vulcanisates. A
simple e-SBR/carbon black compound has
three properties linked together in an
eternal triangle:
- Rolling resistance (fuel economy)
- Wear life (longevity)
- Wet grip (safety)
For any individual product the balance
between the three properties can be
tweaked. Americans like longer life, but
care less about wet grip or fuel economy,
whereas Europeans tend to favour safety
over longevity. However, an improvement
in one area always means a compromise
in one or both of the other parameters.
Image of VMI MAXX and EXIUM Tire Building Machines
“Another driver is to use
sustainable materials in tyre
manufacture.”

This means that the compounds will be more
scientifically designed and produced. I also
expect that once compounds of this nature
have been developed, they will have to be
processed with much more care in order to
avoid disruption to the filler structures and
structure of the inter-penetrating polymer
networks. As a result we will see fewer
aggressive processing techniques and an
increase in low-shear; low-intervention
processes.
“I also expect that compounds have to be processed
with much more care in order to avoid disruption to
the filler structures and structure of the inter-penetrating
polymer networks. As a result we will see fewer aggressive
processing techniques and an increase in low-shear;
low-intervention processes.”
The key driver in tyres is to expand this
triangle to permit all three properties to be
improved at the same time. This is the
thinking behind the silica-silane revolution
started in 1992 with Michelin's Green X tyre.
One trend in the future will be to improve
dispersion. This will reduce the number of
stress concentrations due to filler
agglomerations. Other trends will be to
develop still further the polymer molecules
and to increase the specific surface area of
filler particles.
14

What new ideas are energizing thePW:
tyre industry globally? How much of it
is related to machinery developments
or improvements ?
I have hinted above that I think theDS:
internal mixer is approaching the end of
its product development cycle. Wear rates
on tyres are closely linked to the
uniformity of the compound on a 10nm –
100nm scale. That's the size of
agglomerations of carbon black and silica
particles. More discontinuities in that size
range lead to greater stress concentrations
and consequently increased wear under
dynamic loading as seen in hard cornering
or heavy braking.
Current internal mixers are close to their
limit when compounders want good
dispersion on these scales, especially when
mixing silica which likes to self-agglomerate.
I think we will see some very significant
changes to the mixing process during 2016.
If the industry adopts these new changes –
and I am convinced that they will – then the
design of compounds and the care of
compounds will become a new field for
machinery makers. I can envisage whole
new classes of machinery which are less
aggressive towards the compound. This in
turn should lead to lower energy costs and
improved product performance.
Second, the machinery suppliers have
traditionally looked only at initial capital
investments by tyre makers with on-going
maintenance contracts where they can sell
them. They have restricted themselves to
the machinery.
I suspect that one or two of them will
venture into the raw materials supply area.
Already we have seen Mesnac investigating
some material properties. Today this is
largely driven by a need to better
understand how these materials can be
processed.
“Current internal
mixers are close
to their limit when
compounders want
good dispersion
on these scales,
especially when
mixing silica
which likes to
self-agglomerate.”
15

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I remember a conversation with Ronil
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makers and for materials suppliers. There
are strong synergies in that combination.
As machinery supplier, you get an idea of
the capacity of the factory and so can
predict what materials will be needed and
in what volumes. As materials supplier, you
can get an idea of when a factory is close to
capacity and might want to think about
expanding, so can time your upgrade
suggestions accordingly.
Today, profitability for tyrePW:
producers is from falling raw material
prices, which may not be a true reflection
for the future. Strategically, where do you
see opportunities for tyre producers to
build sustaining profitability while
simultaneously adding value to their
customers?
This is a great question, and I haveDS:
blogged about it in some detail. First, I think
that tyre makers have, in general, increased
margins as raw materials prices have fallen.
However, tyre makers in low-cost countries
“A 10% fall in raw material
input costs represents only
2-3% reduction in total costs
of a premium brand, but can
reduce overall costs of a Chinese
or Indian tyre maker by 6-7%.”
Image: From Web
17

are more exposed to the raw materials
prices than those in the developed world.
That is to say, a 10% fall in raw material
input costs represents only 2-3% reduction
in total costs of a premium brand, but can
reduce overall costs of a Chinese or Indian
tyre maker by 6 – 7 %.
This means Chinese tyre makers are at an
advantage when raw materials costs are
low, as they can cut prices further, or will
see a bigger improvement in their margins
than the premium brands. As raw
materials costs increase, it has limited
impact on the premium brands, but a large
impact on profitability at the lower end of
the price spectrum.
Already Chinese brands are having a major
impact on tyre sales in most of the
developed world, and also in India, the
Middle East, Africa and other parts of the
developing world.
With raw materials prices expected to
remain low for the foreseeable future, this
gives the low-end brands an opportunity to
raise their game in terms of brand
recognition and quality.
Premium brands can fight back, but only by
finding ways to extract more value from the
tyre than its simple ability to roll on an axle.
Adding value through sensors and data
capture will be a big part of the future for
premium brand tyre makers. The impact on
machinery makers will be to find ways to
“Adding value through
sensors and data capture
will be a big part of the
future for premium brands.”
Image: Bridgestone
18

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incorporate the different sensors
currently being developed by the tyre
makers.
These include read-write RFID tags;
accelerometers, pressure monitoring
devices in the tread package and/or in
the valve stem.
PW: Are eco-friendly or green tyres
claimed by various tyre producers
sustainable? What parameters really
qualify as “sustainable”?
Sustainability is a huge issue in thisDS:
business, but the word has so many
different meanings to different groups
that using it as part of a business agenda
has become a little counter-productive,
in my view.
To an environmental activist, the
meaning is clear: save the planet; slash
the release of fossil carbon; maintain
human rights and land rights and so on.
To a business, the meaning includes most
of these aspects, but it also involves
identifying and managing risks to the
corporate business model.
Within the first definition, 'Green' tyres
(the less eco-damaging variety, rather
than just those between the building
machine and the curing press) deliver
improved fuel economy. Thus, they help
reduce the release of fossil carbon
consumed in the engine.
“All Life Cycle Analyses suggest
that upwards of 80% of the total
energy footprint of a tyre is
generated during the in-use
phase, as opposed to
manufacture, logistics or
disposal.”
Depending on the tyre and its application
all Life Cycle Analyses suggest that upwards
of 80% of the total energy footprint of a
tyre is generated during the in-use phase, as
opposed to manufacture, logistics or
21

disposal. Saving 25% of the fuel used during
the in-use phase will more than compensate
for all the energy consumed during
manufacture.
These calculations are behind the
tremendous thrust to improve fuel economy
of tyres over the last couple of decades. This
pressure will increase still further.
Among car and truck makers, the drive to
cut fuel consumption and emissions
remains a very strong priority, driven by
government legislation.
For a vehicle maker, it is cheaper to tell tyre
makers to deliver better performance than
to develop a new engine, for example. So
rolling resistance will remain a key driver
for the foreseeable future in all tyre
development for OE requirements. As
consumer labelling expands around the
world, rolling resistance will also be a factor
in the replacement market.
“For a vehicle maker, it is
cheaper to tell tyre makers to
deliver better performance
than to develop a new engine,
for example. So rolling
resistance will remain a key
driver for the foreseeable
future in all tyre development
for OE requirements.”
Image: From Web
23

PW: What do you think could potentially
change the growth trajectory of the tyre
industry? Who would have a greater
role – India or China or Someone else?
This is a topic of considerable debateDS:
right now. Most economists in this business
have used projections of economic growth
in China as the basis of their predictions of
the number of tyres used, and from there
they project volume growth for polymers,
for carbon black silica and all manner of
other ingredients – not to mention tyre
building machinery.
China's growth has slowed considerably in
the last couple of years. Although official
data put GDP growth there at 7% or so, the
real growth in 2015 is surely closer to 4%.
If we put that number into the projections
for 2015, then the long-term growth curve
is slightly lower. But if that slowdown
remains in place in 2016, then the curve
drops a little more. If the slow-down
continues for more than a few years, the
predictions based on sustained 7% growth
become more and more obviously
over-optimistic.
Already we are seeing some famous
economic forecasters having to revise
downward their projections for 2015 and
2016 and beyond. I don't think we are at the
end of this downward revision process.
China remains by far the largest producer of
tyres in the world. Nevertheless, there is
substantial over-capacity there, which has
led to severe price competition. The most
successful companies are discovering that
GLOBAL GROWTH FORECASTS FOR 2016
Source:
24

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they can avoid import tariffs on China-made
tyres by setting up offshore manufacturing
in Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Russia and
elsewhere.
My belief is that China will continue to be
important, due to sheer volume, but in the
next 5 years there will be a painful shake-out
in that country. Nevertheless, Chinese-
controlled companies will become
increasingly influential in the business,
albeit with manufacturing in many different
countries.
As to India, I see MRF, Apollo, JK, Ceat and
other companies with world-class strategic
management, skilled workers and an educ-
ated and well-travelled management class.
I see universities and scientific institutes
producing world-class research in India.
Clearly, there are opportunities for India-
based companies in the global tyre industry.
I also see a new generation of managers
taking over at some of these companies.
Where the father built the business up to
serve the Indian customer base, the son is
now preparing to move the company into
the global arena.
India will certainly become a force in the
global tyre industry, but I think it will be
some years before the volume of tyres
made in India can match the volumes
made in China today.
“My belief is that China
will continue to be
important, due to sheer
volume, but in the next
5 years there will be a
painful shake-out in that
country. Nevertheless,
Chinese-controlled
companies will become
increasingly influential
in the business, albeit
with manufacturing in
many different countries”
27

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As a consultant, you interact withPW:
machinery manufacturers. What major
concerns do you hear them talking
about in today's VUCA economy?
Forgive, me, I had to research the VUCADS:
acronym. I think it stands for Volatile,
Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous.
Earlier, I referred to the boring,
unambitious years of the 1980s. In those
days our crystal balls were clear – we could
make some good predictions of the future,
even 5 to 10 years out. Nowadays, most of
my friends in the business think that
making predictions for 5 years into the
future is little more than an exercise in
futility.
That is a problem in an industry where
capital investments need to be made on
multi-year timescales. In natural rubber
we have to plant trees 7 to 10 years before
the rubber is needed. Buying a new mixer
line represents something like a 10-year
view on the business. Setting up a factory
could represent a commitment for 20
years or more.
With capital purchase we need to work out
the cost of ownership and also the
investment return, amortisation and break-
even points. With large capital projects we
are looking at multi-year timescales, so a
VUCA economy makes it more challenging
to present a persuasive case for large
investments to banks or to boards.
In the period after the 2008 Lehman Bros
collapse, we saw investment cycles drop
significantly. Senior management across the
industry would not authorise any capital
project unless it had a pay-back of under 12
months, or, in exceptional cases, 18 months
maximum. That meant larger projects were
either put on hold or cancelled.
We are not back to those days. I think
managements have learned to live with the
uncertainty, but that means managers who
want to invest in large capital projects need
to make a stronger case, using multiple
financial scenarios and demonstrating that
the business risk can be minimised, even in
the downside scenarios. That takes time and
all managers today are massively over-
worked, so it further adds to the burden of
machinery makers' clients.
Another major problem for machinery
suppliers is that the investment in new tyre
factories in China is drying up fast. I think
that is a good thing for the industry as a
whole, but I know that some machinery
suppliers have long relied on projects in
that part of the world for their volume.
“Another major problem for
machinery suppliers is that
the investment in new tyre
factories in China is drying
up fast. I think that is a good
thing for the industry as a
whole, but I know that some
machinery suppliers have
long relied on projects in
that part of the world for
their volume. ”
29

The companies who failed to hitch a ride on
the China bandwagon may find that their
fortunes rise again as their more heavily-
exposed competitors suffer from the China
downturn.
Great! And one last question, whatPW:
would be your advice on machinery to
both equipment buyers and equipment
sellers?
To both buyers and sellers, I'd say theDS:
future will see a lot of machinery makers;
some will be based in Asia; some in Europe
and some in the Americas. It will become a
lot more difficult to guess which offer high
tech and high prices or low tech and low
prices simply by looking at their country
of origin.
My advice to sellers would be to explore
every way of removing cost without
removing value and to develop a deep
understanding of the attributes your
customer thinks genuinely add value;
concentrate on those aspects to exceed
the expectations of your customer.
To buyers, I'd say look at the total cost of
ownership, but also think about the kind
of tyres you want to make and assess the
performance needed for each operation
within that envelope. In many cases,
balancing initial cost against overall
quality can bring the amortisation time
down, so reducing the overall financial
risk.
“To buyers, I'd say
look at the total cost
of ownership, but
also think about the
kind of tyres you
want to make and
assess the
performance
needed for each
operation within
that envelope”
RMW
30

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