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Attribution is
Bullshit
@jeffalytics
Hi, I’m Jeff and I live out of a suitcase
I took this photo in
Tallinn Last Year
5 Minutes before that…
I also saw this
sign in
Tallinn…
Who gets
credit for the
conversion?
Who gets
credit?
Free Beer?
Who gets
credit?
Topless
Servers?
Who gets
credit?
False
Advertising?
So I went in
and bought
this beer… it
wasn’t free
@jeffalytics
Wedding in Oregon
@jeffalytics
That’s me
@jeffalytics
Beautiful venue
for a wedding
@jeffalytics
Attribution question:
Who gets credit for the
conversion (sale)?
@jeffalytics
I asked that very question to Caleb
@jeffalytics
From the owner
Is the Product all
that matters?
@jeffalytics
Their wine sells
out every year
@jeffalytics
5 weddings
booked for 4th of
July weekend
(‘Merica)
@jeffalytics
Growing like
crazy. Don’t care
about attribution.
@jeffalytics
This is how small
businesses treat
their marketing
@jeffalytics
To him, assigning
attribution is bullshit
Attribution
Is
Bullshit
@jeffalytics
Or is it?
@jeffalytics
Let’s
investigate
Four Phases of Attribution
1) No Conversion Tracking
@jeffalytics
Let’s not even go there
@jeffalytics
CRO
Equivalent?
CRO	Equivalent:
@jeffalytics
Having no goals at all
2) Analog Attribution
@jeffalytics
Last	Click	Attribution	for	Conversion
Web Analytics uses a ‘last click’ model
@jeffalytics
AKA The Glengarry Model
@jeffalytics
Many companies follow this blindly
@jeffalytics
The problem? Device Fragmentation
@jeffalytics
Direct gets too much credit!
@jeffalytics
Especially when compared to other models
@jeffalytics
And yet this is the default in every single tool!
@jeffalytics
Even Google plans to kill this model
http://bit.ly/2rgqW0Z
@jeffalytics
CRO
Equivalent?
CRO	Equivalent:
@jeffalytics
Running one test, and assuming ”CRO is Done”
3) Digital Attribution
@jeffalytics
51%
51%ofcompaniesover100employeesare
usingdigitalattributionmodelsin2016.
Source:eMarketerOct,2015
@jeffalytics
First	Click	Attribution	for	Conversion
If last click is so bad, what about ‘first click’?
@jeffalytics
The First Internet commenter of models
@jeffalytics
Not necessarily an achievement
@jeffalytics
Linear	Attribution	for	Conversion
Ok, make everything equal!
@jeffalytics
This is like the millennials of attribution
@jeffalytics
Position	Based	Attribution	for	Conversion
Ok, then let’s compromise
@jeffalytics
The non-offensive approach
@jeffalytics
Time	Decay	Attribution	for	Conversion
The time-based approach
@jeffalytics
This is boring, but makes logical sense
@jeffalytics
Custom	Attribution	Model
You can even create a custom model
@jeffalytics
Test these models
in Google
Analytics
@jeffalytics
Compare multiple models in Google Analytics
@jeffalytics
Customize your channel definitions
@jeffalytics
And see what model fits you best
@jeffalytics
Each website will have different results
@jeffalytics
There is no
perfect model
@jeffalytics
Coming Soon: Google Attribution (Data Driven)
Google Attribution Announcement: http://bit.ly/GoogleAttribution2017
@jeffalytics
Warning: This
represents a
Google-heavy world
@jeffalytics
But it is free!
@jeffalytics
Beyond
Google
@jeffalytics
Tune for Mobile Attribution
https://www.tune.com/
@jeffalytics
Bizible for B2B Attribution
https://www.bizible.com/
@jeffalytics
Bright Funnel for Sales Organizations
http://www.brightfunnel.com/
@jeffalytics
Convertro for Online and Offline Attribution
https://www.convertro.com/
@jeffalytics
CRO
Equivalent?
CRO	Equivalent:
@jeffalytics
CRO Equivalent: Segmentation
Peep talks about the importance of Segmentation: https://youtu.be/7K5IJ_Uv5qQ
4) Multi Channel Attribution
@jeffalytics
84%
84%ofmarketerslistassociatingconversions
withmarketingasatopdigitalpriority
Source:Econsultancy,September14,2016
@jeffalytics
10%
10%ofcompanieshavethiscapability
Source:Econsultancy,September14,2016
@jeffalytics
In other words,
attribution is
hard!
@jeffalytics
Complexity of
attribution strategy
= complexity of
marketing strategy
@jeffalytics
Should you
develop a custom
attribution
program? Maybe.
@jeffalytics
How custom
attribution works
(Case Study)
Objective
Optimize Marketing
Spend to Grow Profit
Marketing Strategy
Strategic multi-channel
media buys
Industry
Consumer Goods
Company size
$140MM in Revenue
@jeffalytics
2014	Sales 2015	Sales Sales	Change
Total	Revenue $146,000,000	 $173,200,000	 $27,200,000	
Marketing	Driven	Sales $43,946,000	 $64,776,800	 $20,830,800	
Sales Increased by $27MM, with $20MM
coming from marketing attribution
Goal 3
Increase ROI on all
marketing programs
Model Used
Custom attribution
model
Goal 2
Only spend in the most
efficient mediums
Goal 1
Increase sales through
targeted media
@jeffalytics
All	Marketing Television Promotions Online Print Radio
2014	Sales	Contribution 30.1% 15.0% 7.0% 4.2% 0.9% 3.0%
2015	Sales	Contribution 37.4% 17.9% 9.0% 6.8% 2.7% 1.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Acting on Attribution data to grow sales %
@jeffalytics
2014	Marketing 2015	Marketing
Marketing	Budget $23,000,000	 $25,000,000	
Marketing	Revenue $43,946,000	 $64,776,800	
ROI 191% 259%
Slight budget increase, ROI soared!
@jeffalytics
Attribution lift can
be as big as CRO
@jeffalytics
My favorite attribution resource
Kevin Hillstrom’s MineThatData - http://blog.minethatdata.com/
@jeffalytics
CRO
Equivalent?
CRO	Equivalent:
@jeffalytics
Investing in a CRO agency partner
Back to the Wedding
@jeffalytics
Caleb Winery	Tour Jeff's	Reco Salesperson
The	salesperson	gets	last	
interaction	credit
Who gets credit for the sale?
Caleb Winery	Tour Jeff Salesperson
Jeff	gets	credit	in	a	last	non-
direct	world
Caleb Winery	Tour Jeff Salesperson
Caleb	gets	credit	in	a	first	
click	world
Caleb Winery	Tour Jeff Salesperson
Everyone	gets	some	credit	
with	a	Linear	model
@jeffalytics
If I built a custom model, it would be…
Caleb Winery	Tour Jeff Salesperson
Custom	model	to	assign	credit
@jeffalytics
But really - it’s the bride, of course!
@jeffalytics
See… Attribution is
bullshit.
But is it worth your
time anyway?
@jeffalytics#adwexp
NO
Less than 100 conversions
Is attribution worth your time?
@jeffalytics#adwexp
MAYBE
More than 100 conversions
and strong online focus
NO
Less than 100 conversions
Is attribution worth your time?
@jeffalytics#adwexp
YES
More than 10,000 conversions +
online and offline data sources
MAYBE
More than 100 conversions
and strong online focus
NO
Less than 100 conversions
Is attribution worth your time?
@jeffalytics
Do you need attribution?
Take the quiz:
jeffalytics.com/attribution
Aitäh!
Jeff Sauer
Analytics Teacher and
Consultant
Email: jeff@jeffalytics.com
Links to resources & quiz:
bit.ly/elitecamp17

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