Brief History Of Foresight Futures Alvarenga Carvalho

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Paulo Carvalho

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / FUTURES António Alvarenga / Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho Lisboa, 2008

RAND (Delphi, CIA) Meadows (1971) Forrester (MIT) Kahn (1967) Hudson Institute (1961) Bell, D., (1965) Battelle (IFS) Arlington Helmer/Amara “Institute for the Future” (1968) Ogburn (1929) North Carolina Research Institute (NCRI) (Future Mapping) Stanford Research Institute (SRI) Rhyne Coyle (FAR) Gordon The Futures Group (TIA) Von Kerman (1944) WFSF (1973) Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) (1974) WFS (1966) ORIGINS AND PIONEERS 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000

1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Berger (1957;1964) Commissariat Général du Plan (1962) Massé, P. (1959-1966) Jouvenel, H Futuribles Lesourne, J. Relatório Interfuturs (1979) Godet 1977 1982 (CNAM) 1992 Gonod (1996) Jouvenel, B. (1964) Futuribles (1975) Elf (1964;...) CEPII (1978) France Telecom (1983) DATAR (1963) THE FRENCH SCHOOL - LA PROSPECTIVE

1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Schwartz (1991) Heijden (1996; 2002) Porter (1985) Schoemaker 1993; 1995 Decision Strategies International Wack Shell (1971 – 1981) HBR (1985) Global Business Network GBN (1987) De Geus (1988) Shell (1967-Presente) Hamel (1994) Ansoff (1965) Weick (1995) Mintzberg (1994) Kelly (2001) Christensen (1997) SHELL’S INFLUENCE A FEW STRATEGY AND INNOVATION LANDMARKS

1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Ben Martin (1989; 1995) Ian Miles (SPRU -> PREST) Michael Keenan (PREST) Jantsch (1967) SPRU (Sussex) (1966) C. Freeman (1974) Foresight (DTI) (1994) PM Foresight Unit UK’S FORESIGHT

1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Wendel Bell (1997) Slaughter Dator Inayatullah Peter Bishop (Houston) Finland (FFA; Turku University; TEKES; SITRA; NOKIA; ...) FAST (CE) (1979) Cellule de Prospective (CE) (1989) Association of Professional Futurists - APF Shaping Tomorrow Trendwatching.com COST A22 Millennium Project OTHER KEY ACTORS AND NEW INITIATIVES European Futurists Conference Lucerne

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Brief History Of Foresight Futures Alvarenga Carvalho

1. A BRIEF HISTORY OF FORESIGHT / FUTURES António Alvarenga / Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho Lisboa, 2008

2. RAND (Delphi, CIA) Meadows (1971) Forrester (MIT) Kahn (1967) Hudson Institute (1961) Bell, D., (1965) Battelle (IFS) Arlington Helmer/Amara “Institute for the Future” (1968) Ogburn (1929) North Carolina Research Institute (NCRI) (Future Mapping) Stanford Research Institute (SRI) Rhyne Coyle (FAR) Gordon The Futures Group (TIA) Von Kerman (1944) WFSF (1973) Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) (1974) WFS (1966) ORIGINS AND PIONEERS 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000

3. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Berger (1957;1964) Commissariat Général du Plan (1962) Massé, P. (1959-1966) Jouvenel, H Futuribles Lesourne, J. Relatório Interfuturs (1979) Godet 1977 1982 (CNAM) 1992 Gonod (1996) Jouvenel, B. (1964) Futuribles (1975) Elf (1964;...) CEPII (1978) France Telecom (1983) DATAR (1963) THE FRENCH SCHOOL - LA PROSPECTIVE

4. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Schwartz (1991) Heijden (1996; 2002) Porter (1985) Schoemaker 1993; 1995 Decision Strategies International Wack Shell (1971 – 1981) HBR (1985) Global Business Network GBN (1987) De Geus (1988) Shell (1967-Presente) Hamel (1994) Ansoff (1965) Weick (1995) Mintzberg (1994) Kelly (2001) Christensen (1997) SHELL’S INFLUENCE A FEW STRATEGY AND INNOVATION LANDMARKS

5. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Ben Martin (1989; 1995) Ian Miles (SPRU -> PREST) Michael Keenan (PREST) Jantsch (1967) SPRU (Sussex) (1966) C. Freeman (1974) Foresight (DTI) (1994) PM Foresight Unit UK’S FORESIGHT

6. 1940’s 1950’s 1960’s 1970’s 1980’s 1990’s 2000 Wendel Bell (1997) Slaughter Dator Inayatullah Peter Bishop (Houston) Finland (FFA; Turku University; TEKES; SITRA; NOKIA; ...) FAST (CE) (1979) Cellule de Prospective (CE) (1989) Association of Professional Futurists - APF Shaping Tomorrow Trendwatching.com COST A22 Millennium Project OTHER KEY ACTORS AND NEW INITIATIVES European Futurists Conference Lucerne

Brief History Of Foresight Futures Alvarenga Carvalho

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