15. This Presentation
A Brief History of the
Future – 12 Pieces of
the Jigsaw
1
Implications for
Schools
2
The Challenge for
Professionals –
Teachers, Supports
and Leaders
3
16. “The future isn’t what it used to be” Yogi Berra
“The future will be better tomorrow” Vice President Dan
Quayle
“It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future..”
Niels Bohr
17. Demographics
As baby boomers retire the dependency
ratio changes – in Canada from 4:1 to 2:1 by
2030
Some countries below population
replacement – especially Japan
Others rapidly growing – especially in Asia,
China
Immigration essential in many countries –
Canada needs to double its immigration to
“stay the same”
18. Shifting Global Economies – Shift Happens
424 major cities in the world will generate
75% of the world’s GDP – 325 of these are in
Asia
New middle class (2.5 billion by 2050) –
almost entirely in Asia / India / Africa
50% of the world’s $1 billion companies are
headquartered in Asia – more to come
19. Globalization
MOOCs: 81.5 million individuals
registered for one of 9,500
MOOCs from 800+ universities
and colleges in 2017
Supply chains are global – look
at the BMW Mini. 300 options for
exterior trim -
15,000,000,000,000,000 possible
combinations.
Parts delivered to Oxford Just in
Time 0 – enough for 1 shift.
3,600 parts in a standard Mini
(up to 4,875 in a Mini Cooper S)
– from 47 countries.
20. Planet in Peril
9.5 billion people on planet Earth by 2050
If we continue current behaviours, we will need 3 planets to
supply this population
Already experiencing challenges about water, climate, extreme
weather events
Environmental challenges are real and urgent
21. Rapid Advances in Technologies
Artificial Intelligence
3D Printing enabling adaptive manufacturing
Stem-Cell Therapies and Gene Splicing
Robotics
Blockchain
Human Implants – Cognitive Implants
Neuroplasticity and Cognitive Science
22.
23.
24. Technology Will
Impact Work..
30-40% of all current work will
be impacted by one or more of
these technologies
Some jobs will disappear, new
jobs will emerge
Some workers with low level
cognitive skills will not find work
We will all have to dance with
robots and share our intelligence
with machines
25. The New Economy is
the Gig Economy
20% of the Australian workforce are in the gig
economy – in Canada and the UK this figure is
approaching 40%
Gig economy growing 12x faster than formal
employment in Canada
The UK has zero hours contracts…
Many millennials and iGen’s do not intend to
pursue full time work – looking for work : life
balance
26. New Forms of Organizations
Industrial corporations are being replaced by business web
organizations – Amazon and Uber are more common models
than Proctor and Gamble
Global businesses are:
Aggregators and brokers
Networked supply chains
Using gig labour and smart technologies
Moving goods and people faster than the tax authorities can find
them
Disrupting assumptions about how work gets done..
27. Austerity and Recession
US, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, and Canada)
and two emerging markets (China and India) have a
$400 trillion retirement savings shortfall that will
become growingly evident and at crisis point in 2050.
Total debt from all sources (government, corporate,
personal, etc.) is currently US$249 trillion.
In the US, to deliver current levels of public services
(everything from education to health care to
pensions) to the projected population in 2030,
taxpayers will need to find an additional US$940
billion. In the UK, they’ll need to find another US$170
billion, and in Canada they’ll need to find another
US$90 billion.
“We no longer have business cycles – we have debt cycles”
28. Growing
Inequality
Canada is experiencing growing
inequality – our top 100 CEO’s
earn the average Canadian wage
($49,510) by 11:47 a.m. on
January 3—the first working day
of the year.
Fewer than 90 families in Canada
hold roughly as much wealth as
everyone living in Newfoundland
and Labrador, New Brunswick
and Prince Edward Island
collectively owns.
1 in 7 Canadian residents live in
poverty and 1.3 million children
live in poverty.
29. Identity and
Meaning
1 in 5 in the US report being
lonely
Mental health issues – especially
for teens – growing
Identity and meaning from work,
family, community are all
changing
Compassion and empathy in
decline as is spirituality
Meaning cannot be found in
“stuff” but in purpose and
compassion
31. Two Solitudes of educational policy
(Murgatroyd and Sahlberg, 2016)
Competition Between
Schools
Frequent Testing /
Accountability
De-Professionalization
PISA Envy
Collaboration
Trust Based
Responsibility
Collaborative
Professional Autonomy
Equity as the Key
Measure
32.
33. Some Big Implications
Literacy and numeracy are key – 40-60% of learners leave school with Level 1 and 2 literacy –
they need Level 3, 4 or 5.
Flexibility is key – modular, stackable, on-demand learning – rethinking what and how we teach
Resilience and self-understanding as important as skills and capabilities if not more so – it’s the
key to wellbeing
Assessment anytime, anywhere – assessment is the key to the skills agenda
Collaboration not competition is the key to all of our futures
34. Delors (1966) was Right..
The Delors Four Pillars for Education:
Learning to Be
Learning to Live Together
Learning to Know
Learning to Do
35. We Also Need to Encourage Creativity and
Imagination – STEAM not STEM!
“At school, art and poetry should take a much more important place than
they are given in many countries by an education that has become more
utilitarian than cultural. Concern with developing the imagination and
creativity should also restore the value of oral culture and knowledge drawn
from children's or adults' experiences..” Delors
37. You Need to
Think About
Enabling literacy and numeracy – understand what you can
do to accelerate literacy/numeracy capabilities
Supporting flexible approaches to learning – personalizing
learning
Increasing the use of books and supporting written work,
not technology
Making it fun – learning is supposed to be fun!
38. So The Big
Picture..
It’s a time of significant change..
More change to
come…unbundling, new global
competitors, new ways of
learning
It’s what we live for, right!
The key – focused and strategic
leadership…