This document provides an economic forecast from small and mid-sized business owners for 2012. It includes projections for US GDP growth, unemployment, and other economic indicators. It also examines business owner confidence levels, impediments to growth, hiring plans, and prospects for raising capital. The respondents favored increasing access to capital and regulatory reform as policies to spur job creation over education reform or increasing competitiveness with trade partners. Overall, the report analyzes the economic outlook and policy perspectives of small and mid-sized businesses.

1. 2012 Economic Forecast: Insights from
Small and Mid-Sized Business Owners
January 18th, 2012
John K. Paglia, Ph.D., CFA, CPA
Associate Professor of Finance
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All rights reserved. Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project (“PPCMP”) is a trademark of
Pepperdine University. PPCMP content is the intellectual property of Pepperdine University or its third party content
providers. Any copying, republication or redistribution of PPCMP's content, including but not limited to caching, framing or
similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Pepperdine University. Pepperdine University shall
not be liable for any errors, omissions or delays in PPCMP content, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon.

2. This research was conducted in partnership
with Dun & Bradstreet Credibility Corp., the
leading provider of credit building and credibility
solutions for businesses.
DUN & BRADSTREET CREDIBILITY CORP.
Jeffrey Stibel, Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Aaron Stibel, Senior Vice President, Technology
Judy Hackett, Chief Marketing Officer
Erik Simon, Director, Marketing and Communications
Brenda Gary, Bernice Brennan, Trenice Taylor

3. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I’d also like to thank the following people at the Graziadio School of
Business and Management for their contributions:
Dean Linda Livingstone
Associate Dean David M. Smith
Mike Sims, Executive Officer, CER
Douglass Gore, Director of Public Relations
Mark Chun, Director, Center for Applied Research
Bill Bleuel, Professor of Decision Sciences
Irina Shaykhutdinova, Research Analyst
Sean Gray, Graduate Assistant

4. Outline
• About the respondents
• 2011 economic forecast performance
• 2012 economic forecast
• Impediments to US GDP growth in 2012
• Creating jobs in 2012
• Confidence in business growth prospects
• Business strategies and prospects for raising capital
• Government economic policies to spur job growth
• Presidential candidates and impact on business loan and
home equity availability
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
4

5. About the Respondents
• 3,118 U.S. small and medium sized business owners
• Responses collected from January 4 – January 11, 2012
• Median age from 55 to 64
• 80% male respondents
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
5

6. 2011 Pepperdine Private Capital Markets
Project Economic Forecast Performance
Results
Whole White Federal Wall Street
CBO4 NABE6 LAEDC7 on
Sample1 House2 Reserve3 Consensus5
12/31/2011
2011 US GDP 1.98% 3.10% 3.65% 3.10% 3.30% 3.30% 3.10% 1.7%*
2012 US GDP 2.45% 4.00% 3.85% 2.80% 3.20% 3.40% 3.40% 2.4%*
US Unemployment Rate(12/31/2011) 9.11% 9.10% 8.90% 9.20% 8.80% 9.00% 9.00% 8.50%
Inflation 2.12% 1.40% 1.50% 1.30% 1.90% 1.80% 2.50% 3.40%
US House prices ‐1.76% n/a n/a n/a ‐0.06% 0.40% n/a ‐2.71%
S&P 500 6.46% n/a n/a n/a 10.00% 7.30% n/a 0.00%
1 ‐ Pepperdine Economic Survey 2011, all respondents
2 ‐ Economic and Budget Analyses, 2011
3 ‐ Monetary Policy Report, March 1, 2011
4 ‐ The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021
5 ‐ The Wall Street Journal, Economic Forecasting
6 ‐ National Association for Business Economics, February 2011
7 ‐ Los Angeles County Economic Development Corporation, Economic Forecast 2011‐2012
* ‐ estimated by Wall Street Consensus
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
6

7. 2012 Economic Forecast
Projections in January 2012 Projections in January 2011
Whole $5‐$100 Whole $5‐$100
<$5 million2 <$5 million
sample1 million3 sample million
2011 US GDP n/a n/a n/a 2.0% 1.9% 2.1%
2012 US GDP 0.7% 0.7% 1.1% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6%
2013 US GDP 1.9% 1.8% 2.2% n/a n/a n/a
Probability of US recession in
32.0% 32.7% 28.8% 28.4% 30.4% 27.6%
the next year
US Housing Prices ‐0.8% ‐0.9% ‐0.5% ‐1.8% ‐2.3% ‐1.5%
S&P 500 2.5% 2.3% 3.5% 6.5% 6.1% 6.7%
US Unemployment Rate (12/31) 8.7% 8.7% 8.7% 9.1% 9.1% 9.1%
1 ‐ all 3,118 privately‐held businesses that participated in the survey
2 ‐ privately‐held businesses with annual revenues less than $5 million
3 ‐ privately‐held businesses with annual revenues from $5 million to $100 million
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
7

8. Confidence in Business Growth Prospects
Compared to One Year Ago
2012 versus 2011 Respondents
60%
52%
50%
40%
32%
30% 27%
22%
20% 16% 18%
12%
9% 8%
10% 5%
0%
More confident Somewhat more Neither more nor Somewhat less Less confident
confident less confident confident
Respondents in 2012 Respondents in 2011
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
8

9. Impediments to U.S. GDP Growth in the Next
12 Months by Size (<$5 million revenues; $5 -
$100 million revenues)
35%
31% 31% 32% 31%
30%
30%
26% 25%
25%
20% 19% 19%
20% 18% 17%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Government regulations Domestic (U.S.) economic Global economic and/or Limited access to capital
and taxes and/or political political environment
environment
whole sample 5M 5‐100M
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
9

10. The Year When U.S. Unemployment Rate First
Reaches 6% or Below
30%
27%
26%
25%
25% 23%
20%
20%
15%
15%
11%
10% 9%
8%
6% 6%
5%
5% 4% 4% 4%
2% 2%
0.6% 1% 1% 1%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 After
2020
2012 2011
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
10

11. Number of Employees Businesses Are
Planning to Hire in the Next 12 Months by Size
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
More than
0 1‐2 3‐5 6‐10 11‐15 16‐20 Unsure
20
Whole sample 43% 31% 12% 5% 2% 1% 1% 4%
<$5 million 47% 34% 10% 3% 1% 0% 0% 3%
$5‐$100 million 27% 21% 21% 10% 5% 3% 7% 5%
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
11

12. Pay for Employees and Owners
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
12

13. Strategy Most Likely to Be Pursued in 2012 to
Increase Business Value
50% 46%
45%
40%
35% 33%
30%
25%
20%
15%
15%
10% 7%
5%
0%
Increase revenues Increase revenues Reduce operating Reduce labor‐related
through sales of through sales of new expenses (excluding expenses
existing products/services labor)
products/services
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
13

14. Best Prospects for Raising External Business
Capital in 2012 by Size
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Angel
Peer‐to‐
Friends Selling Equipm or Private
Bank Pers. Credit Home peer Pawn Hedge
and pers. ent venture equity Factor Other
loan savings cards equity lending loan fund
family assets lease capital fund
groups
fund
Whole sample 43% 32% 17% 14% 13% 11% 10% 9% 8% 5% 4% 1% 1% 14%
<$5 million 39% 36% 19% 17% 14% 9% 11% 9% 6% 5% 4% 1% 1% 14%
$5‐$100 million 64% 21% 8% 5% 7% 19% 5% 5% 14% 5% 2% 0% 2% 11%
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
14

15. Importance of Home Equity as a Potential
Source When Raising Business Financing
70%
60% 58%
50% 44%
41%
40%
30%
19%20%18%
20% 14%15%
12%13% 11%12%
8% 7% 9%
10%
0%
Very important Important Moderately Of little Unimportant
important importance
Whole sample <$5 million $5‐$100 million
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
15

16. Percentage Indicating “Yes” to “Is a Lack of
Home Equity as a Potential Source of
Business Capital Restricting …”
30% 28%
26%
25%
20% 19%
17%
15%
15%
11%
10%
5%
0%
Growth opportunities Ability to hire new employees
Whole sample <$5 million $5‐$100 million
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
16

17. Percentage Indicating “Yes” to “Is a Lack of
Bank Loans as a Potential Source of Business
Capital Restricting …”
60%
53%
49%
50%
42%
40% 37%
34%
30%
24%
20%
10%
0%
Growth opportunities Ability to hire new employees
Whole sample <$5 million $5‐$100 million
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
17

18. Policies to Help Spur U.S. Job Creation
2012 versus 2011
50%
44%
45%
40%
35% 30%
30% 28%
25% 21%
19%
20% 17%
15% 14%
15%
10% 5%
5% 0%
0%
Increased access Regulatory reform Tax incentives Increased Education reform
to capital competitiveness
with foreign trade
partners
2012 2011
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
18

19. Best Policy to Help Spur U.S. Job Creation
by Size
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Increased
Increased competitive
Regulatory Education
access to Tax incentives position with
reform reform
capital foreign trade
partners
Whole sample 30% 28% 21% 15% 5%
<$5 million 32% 27% 20% 15% 5%
$5‐$100 million 25% 32% 24% 16% 4%
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
19

20. Support for Various Economic Policies
and Actions in 2012
90%
79% 77%
80%
70% 64% 65% 66%
60%
49%
50% 41%
40%
28% 28%
30%
15% 18% 16%
20% 13%
8% 10% 8% 9%
10% 6%
0%
Balanced U.S. Further Policies / actions Increase of U.S. U.S. Government Policies / actions
Government extensions of to lower interest Government debt policies / actions to weaken U.S.
budget reduced payroll rates limit to financially dollar
tax periods support struggling
European
economies
Yes No Unsure
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
20

21. Percentage Indicating Support for Various
Options to Balance U.S. Government Budget
100% 96%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 23%
19%
20%
9%
10%
0%
Decreasing federal Increasing revenues from Increasing revenues from Increasing revenues from
expenditures personal income taxation business income taxation payroll taxation
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
21

22. The Earliest Time to Support an Increase in
the U.S. Government Debt Limit
50%
45%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25% 23%
20%
15%
10% 9%
10% 7%
4%
5% 2%
0%
First half of Second half of 2013 2014 2015 2016 or later Never
2012 2012
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
22

23. Which Presidential Candidate, if Elected,
Would Likely Have the Most Favorable Impact
on Your Business?
45%
40% Barack Obama Mitt Romney
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Whole Less than $100K ‐ $500K ‐ $5M ‐ $10M ‐ $25 ‐
$1M ‐ $5M
sample $100K $500K $1M $10M $25M $100M
Barack Obama 29% 40% 33% 28% 25% 20% 21% 22%
Mitt Romney 24% 17% 23% 22% 27% 25% 32% 35%
Newt Gingrich 15% 9% 14% 16% 17% 16% 14% 13%
Ron Paul 12% 13% 13% 13% 11% 15% 11% 9%
Rick Santorum 10% 10% 8% 9% 10% 12% 11% 9%
Others 10% 11% 8% 12% 10% 12% 11% 12%
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
23

24. Presidential Candidates: Rated by Level of
Expected Impact on Owners’ Businesses
(1 = very unfavorable; 7 = very favorable)
Jon
Mitt Newt Rick Ron Rick Barack
Huntsman
Romney Gingrich Santorum Paul Perry Obama
Jr.
Whole Sample 4.7 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.1
Businesses Selecting
Obama as Most 3.3 2.4 2.5 3.5 2.7 2.2 5.9
Favorable
Businesses Selecting
Romney as Most 6.1 4.7 4.9 4.6 4.1 4.6 2.1
Favorable
Others 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 4.7 2.0
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
24

25. Details About the Respondents
Geographic Location
less than or equal to 10
11 - 25
26 - 50 ME
WA
51 - 75
76 - 100 ND MN VTNH
MT
101 - 125 OR NY MA
126 - 150 WI
ID SD MI RI
more than 150 CT
WY PA
IA NJ
NE OH
NV IL IN MD
WV VA
UT CO
KS MO KY
CA NC
TN
OK AR SC
AZ NM
MS AL GA
HI
AK LA
TX
FL
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
25

26. Details About the Respondents
Types of Businesses
Construction & engineering
Business services
14% Customer goods & services
30%
12% Manufacturing
11% Wholesale & distribution
3% Information technology
4% 8%
5% 6% 6%
1% Health care & biotech
Financial services
Media & entertainment
Basic materials & energy
Other
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
26

27. Details About the Respondents
Annual Revenues
$0
1%
2% 1% 3% 2% $1 ‐ $100,000
5% 16% $100,001 ‐ $500,000
7%
$500,001 ‐ $1,000,000
23% $1,000,001 ‐ $5,000,000
25%
$5,000,001 ‐ $10,000,000
14%
$10,000,001 ‐ $25,000,000
$25,000,001 ‐ $50,000,000
$50,000,001 ‐ $100,000,000
$100,000,001 ‐ $500,000,000
More than $500,000,000
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
27

28. Details About the Respondents
Number of Employees
0
5% 4%2% 4% 1‐2
10% 25% 3‐5
13% 6‐10
22% 11‐20
15%
21 ‐ 50
51 ‐ 100
101 ‐ 500
More than 500
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
28

29. About Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project
The Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project at the Graziadio School of Business
and Management is the first simultaneous, comprehensive, and on‐going
investigation of the major private capital market segments. The research seeks to
understand the true cost of private capital across market types and the investment
expectations of privately‐held business owners; providing lenders, investors and the
businesses that depend on them with critical data to make optimal investment and
financing decisions, and better determine where the opportunities to create lasting
economic value may be realized. Download reports and find more information at
http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital.
About Pepperdine University’s Graziadio School of Business and Management
Founded on the core values of integrity, stewardship, courage, and compassion,
Pepperdine University’s Graziadio (GRAT‐ZEE‐ah‐DEE‐oh) School of Business and
Management has been developing values‐centered leaders and advancing
responsible business practice since 1969. Student‐focused, experience‐driven, and
globally‐oriented, the Graziadio School offers fully accredited top‐ranked MBA,
Masters of Science, and bachelor’s completion business programs. More information
found at http://bschool.pepperdine.edu/newsroom/.
© 2012 Pepperdine University. All Right Reserved.
29

30. Thank You!
John K. Paglia, Ph.D., CFA, CPA
Associate Professor of Finance
Senior Researcher, Pepperdine Private Capital
Markets Project
bschool.pepperdine.edu/privatecapital
john.paglia@pepperdine.edu
805.379.5809
30