A presentation on research in NZ covering reasons for voting or not..

1. It’s election year – so what?!

2. 100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
NZ voter turnout -
% 18+ year olds
1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
“Voter apathy
blamed for
declining voter
turnout”
Dominion Post
13 October 2007
Voting is
your right
and your
responsibility

3. Why care about elections?
They provide parliament which provides a government
They give legitimacy to:
– Parliament which taxes, spends, permits, compels, confines,
monitors government
– Government which manages
day to day
– New Zealand as a world citizen
Politicians and parties answer to those who vote
Participation is both a right and a responsibility, but
saying this doesn’t make it happen

4. Kiwis participating less
and some groups well behind
Turnout is high - but trending lower
Young adults are - half of those not enrolled,
least likely to vote (each election and by
generation), under half aware it’s election year
Maori seats turnout 10-15% less than general
Late enrollers more likely to vote though!
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0

5. Voter turnout is
in decline
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00
Australia
New Zealand
Germany
UK
Canada
USA
Election closest to half decade
Voters’
queue in
a new
democracy

6. Under 25’s least likely to
enrol and vote
Keisha: “I want to be PM”
NZ Herald, 12 March 2008
% non-enrolled by age range
@ 31 Jan '08
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
age range
Less than
half know
it’s election
year!

7. Would
you let
your
granny
choose
your music ?
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
% enrolled not-voting, NZES
18-24
25 plus
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005
Young people
now less likely to
vote than young
people pre-1970

8. Māori identity probably influences roll and
voting choices, but not whether to enrol or vote
first
Voter turnout
- % enrolled
Voter Turnout 2005 - % enrolled
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Lowest in any
electorate
Tai Tokerau
Highest in a Maori
electorate
Lowest in a general
electorate
Highest in any
electorate
Tamaki Makaurau
Mangere
Wellington
Central

9. New Zealand analysis – Jack
Vowles, NZ Election Study
Clear generational patterns, related to competitiveness
between Labour and National
Those born since 1974 are 20-30 % less likely to vote
in first few elections than those born pre 1935
Some contributing factors are:
– Lower sense of civic duty – strongest effect
– Lower interest in politics – moderate effect
– Lower voting age – (less social cohesion when first vote)
MMP has lifted turnout by average 4%, 8% for post
1975’ers

10. Non-voters we know
Let’s build a profile of some actual or likely
non-voters we know
Then we’ll relate them to what we know about
why people do and don’t join in with elections

11. Habit, competition, connectedness
and belief encourage participation
Voting’s a habit, best
acquired young
A close race boosts turnout
Being connected also helps
Voting’s even more likely if
you believe any of: politics
is interesting, participating
can make a difference, and
it’s easy

12. Efficacy = participation
People’s belief in their own ability to:
– know what is going on
– be heard
– make a difference politically
It is state of mind, a habit and a self-fulfilling prophecy
Correlates with involvement and voting
Young more likely to have lower efficacy, particularly
professed interest or perception of ease
Best built through personal experience

13. Low efficacy often expressed as
 ‘politics is boring / has nothing
to do with me’
 ‘they don’t listen to us’
 ‘it’s too complicated’
 ‘no one sent me an enrolment
form’ / ‘I don’t know where to
go to vote’
 ‘I don’t want to look stupid’
 ‘politics isn’t cool’
 ‘the car doesn’t go there’
 ‘I haven’t in the past so why
start now’
 ‘it’s for adults’

14. Increasing political efficacy
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
HHH LHH HLH HHL HLL LHL LLH LLL
Political efficacy combinations:
interesting, voting impacts, easy
%
% voters minus % non-voters
above the line means more voters
below the line means more non-voters

15. Efficacy and younger voters
% under
30
% under
30 not
vote
HHH 22 4
LHH 5 0
HLH 4 4
HHL 20 24
HLL 6 8
LHL 29 24
LLH 0 0
LLL 14 36

16. Young
non-voter
MOTIVATION
segments Higher
Confident and
KNOWLEDGE
Lower
KNOWLEDGE
Higher
Living for the
Weekend
MOTIVATION
Lower
Convinced
Tentative
Triers
Distrustful and
Disillusioned
Politically Absent

17. Expressions of the Segments
CONFIDENT AND CONVINCED
“I definitely could change things if I
wanted to. I’d post polls, I’d kick off a
referendum, I’d visit my local MP, I’d
be more vocal, I’d write in”
TENTATIVE TRIERS
“Everyone seems to have, like
made up their mind and I
haven’t”
LIVING FOR THE WEEKEND
“We live for the here and now…
rather than what’s going to
happen 10 years down the track
or 5 years down the track”
POLITICALLY ABSENT
DISTRUSTFUL AND DISILLUSIONED
“It’s not worth voting for any of them. There
isn’t a good choice. Nothing will change”
“It’s not that I don’t care, its more that I’m not interested.
I’ve got my own life to think about. Nothing is harming me at
the moment… It doesn’t make a difference to my life... I don’t
think there’s anything anyone could say to make me vote”

18. Confident and Convinced
Underlying commitment to political and electoral participation. However commitment
is shallow and behaviour not entrenched
Tentative Triers
Strong desire for political and electoral participation, but held back
by lack of confidence and key skills. Weak, fearful relationship with politics

19. Living for the Weekend
Voting is irrelevant – it assumes a long range view, whereas LFW have only
an immediate view. Political engagement competes with “my life and lifestyle”
Distrustful and Disillusioned
Politics and politicians provide a focus for frustration around the struggle
to stay afloat. Rejecting political system provides a sense of control and superiority
Politically Absent
In the absence of any political literacy or electoral participation
norms, voting is meaningless or off the radar

20. Some non/voter examples
“Principled”non-voter
18-year-old
‘Grown Into It’
Migrant
Active and engaged

21. ‘Principled’ non-voter
I’m confident in my understanding of politics
Voting won’t change anything
I don’t trust “the government”
There are other, more effective ways to make a
difference than voting
Politics is all global now. The New Zealand government
can’t have any impact on the issues I care about.
All the government does these days is stop me from
doing things

22. 18-year-old
Voting is my right
Elections are a chance to make a difference
Politics is important, but scary
Polling places are scary
Can’t decide who to vote for
Politics – nah, don’t do politics
Politics – that’s what adults do
None of my mates talk about it, so I don’t either

23. ‘Grown Into It’
I wasn’t into it when I was 18 but now I am
Politics is important, but a bit daunting
It’s good we can vote
Elections are a chance to make a difference
I’m 35 now and I don’t want to admit to anyone
that I don’t know what to do
It’s so hard to decide who to vote for
My new partner is politically active and is
“making” me vote

24. Migrant
I want to take part in my new country
Elections can make a difference for migrants
I don’t understand New Zealand politics at all
Politics is dangerous where I come from
I feel uncomfortable talking about politics
I’ve always voted the same party, but can’t find
an equivalent here

25. Active and engaged voter
I’m confident in my understanding of politics
Politics affects me. I talk about it. I do it.
Voting is my right and my responsibility so I’m
going to use it
Elections are a chance to make a difference
Nothing would stop me from voting
Everyone should vote, it’s easy
Every vote counts

26. The problem of …
Declining voter turnout
People not ‘switching on’ to politics
… is real
… is now
… needs action

27. The response
It’s easy to
 enrol
 decide
 vote

28. Andreasen’s ‘Stages of Change’ model is
commonly
used in social marketing frameworks
MAINTENANCE
ACTION
PREPARATION
CONTEMPLATION
Going to keep voting in
future
Voting
I’ve enrolled
Deciding who to vote for
Thinking about it
PRECONTEMPLATION Haven’t even thought
about it
In many cases, only a small proportion of the target audience is ready for action-oriented
interventions, and focus needs to be directed to moving people out of the earlier stages

29. Population behaviour change
model says we all have a role
For a population to adopt and maintain a desired
behaviour the following are needed:
appropriate policy design
appropriate institutional design
strong community action
individual skills
a supportive social environment

30. Youth, Maori, Pacific, migrant,
disability focused programmes
Stakeholder roadshow
Face-to-face peer-to-peer enrolment
Advertising and public relations initiatives
Multiple languages and formats
Education resources and teacher education
Journalism education
www.elections.org.nz
www.ivotenz.org.nz

31. Sources
Elections New Zealand website www.elections.org.nz
– Teaching and research centre
“Voting’s a habit best formed early”
Franklin, Mark. (2004). Voter turnout and the
dynamics of electoral competition in established
democracies since 1945. Cambridge, Cambridge
University Press.
“Connectedness motivates"
Putnam, Robert (2000) Bowling Alone, New York:
Simon & Schuster

32. Sources
Population Behavioural Change - Ottawa Charter for
Public Health, WHO.
Individual Behavioural Change - Andreasen, A. (1995).
Marketing social change. San Francisco, Jossey-Bass.
New Zealand Election Study www.nzes.com