The document provides a technology forecast for the mobile industry. It begins with defining the industry and its key segments. It then analyzes the industry's history, growth, market dynamics, trends, and strategies. Technological challenges are identified for major trends like apps, interfaces, displays, energy monitoring, processing speed, and keyboards. The analysis includes a future wheel, relevance tree, structural analysis, cross-impact analysis, roadmap, and wild cards to forecast short and long-term technologies. Key points of uncertainty are the development of new battery, display, and storage technologies.

1. Mobile Industry
Technology Forecasting
January 2012
Prepared by :
Al-Motaz Bellah Al-Agamawi
As a part of the MS.c in MOT, Technology forecasting and Foresight
Course Project, Conducted in Nile University

2. Report Methodology
• Industry Definition.
First
• Studying history of mobile phones
Second
• Industry analysis including market growth rate, market share of different players, identifying leaders,
followers. Followed by studying the market dynamics, main trends, Producers revenue pyramid,
Third current and future strategies
• PEST analysis and porter five forces model.
Fourth
• Study for the major technological trends. For each of the identified industry trend, identifying the
main technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication
Fifth of each.

3. Report Methodology
• Construction of technology future wheel s, resulted in identifying the main technology
subcomponents.
Sixth
• we gone through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents.
Seventh
• Relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for each
have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing diffusion
Eights rate for each of those technology alternatives.
• Road map for the forecasted technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for
alternative technologies
Ninth
• Conclusion of our forecasted short and terms technologies landscape have been composed and
presented.
Tenth

4. Industry Definition
 Consumer Electronics Industry encompasses such
industries as Computers, Consumer Electronics and
Telecommunications.
 It is divided into two main segments within the B2C (Business to
Consumer) space which are: @Home and On the Go
electronics.
 The On-the-Go sector may be broken into three segments:
 Mobile–Communication
 Entertainment
 Productivity
 Overall, this analysis focuses primarily on Mobile
Communication Devices within the Consumer Electronics
market.

5. Industry Segments
 Several segments within Mobile Devices are
hardware and software:
 Communication
 Mobile Phone
 Entertainment
 Portable Gaming Systems
 Portable Music/ Video Players
 Productivity
 Mobile Computer
 Laptop
 Notebook
 Tablet
 Ultra-Portable
 PDA
 Navigation Systems(GPS)

6. 2.Industry Segments
 Several segments within Mobile Devices are
hardware and software:
 c communication
Mobile Phone FOCUS AREA
 En tertainment
 Portable Gaming Systems
 Portable Music/ Video Players
 Productivity
 Mobile Computer
 Laptop
 Notebook
 Tablet
 Ultra-Portable
 PDA
 Navigation Systems(GPS)

7. Who I am?
 I am an independent forecasting
consulting.
 Providing forecasting consultation for
Mobile Phone Multinational Vendor.

8. 1985 1987 1989 1993 1994 1996 1999 2000 2001 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010
Motorola's
DynaTac

9. 1985 1877 1989 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Motorola's
StarTac

10. 1985 1877 1989 1989 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Nokia introduces

11. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1994 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Nokia introduces
Games

12. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1996 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Communicator Line

13. 1985 1997 1989 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Crackberry
Addiction

14. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1999 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Web Mobile

15. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 2000 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Antenna Free
Mobiles !!

16. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 2001 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
the 3G ERA
Camera Phone

17. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010
iPhone

18. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 2008 2009 2009 2010
Appstore

19. 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010
Nexus

20. Market Dynamics
Market Overview
Sales Growth
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

21. Market Dynamics
Market Overview
Market Share

22. Market Dynamics
Factors That have driven Change
• Consumers crave convenience.
On the Go • Not so long ago our phones had cords, they were bulky, heavy and sucked
power like a Hoover, now they got liberated by not sticking to one place.
Lifestyles
• The creation of ever-smaller scales for mechanical, optical,
and electronic products and devices. Processing Power went
Miniaturization up as chip size shrank
• Now miniaturization is taking a new turn, it helped increase
mobility and power.
• As more and more phones are linked together –the value from
such a device rapidly increases. Phones initially were pretty
Network Effect much worthless. Then as more and more people bought
phones, the value of owning a phone expanded exponentially.
• Combination of voice(telephony)and
Convergence / data(computing/multimedia) into a single, multi-functional
device.
Integration • Design and the integration of voice, multi-media, and
computing is a huge driver of increased mobility

23. Industry Growth & Events
- Analysis -
Traditional Vs Smart Phone
Number of unites

24. Industry Growth & Events
- Analysis -
Smart Phones and Application
Stores Shares

25. The Value Chain
Source: http://www.progresspartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Progress-Partners-Industry-Maps_Q42011_Mobile-Content.pdf

26. Industry Growth & Events
-Strategies-

27. Industry Growth & Events
-Strategies-

28. PEST Analysis
Political Economical
• Environmental • Taxations.
Regulations. • Economic Benefits.
• Restrictions on the tariffs • Rapid growth.
and phones.
• Government
regulations.
• Internet Regulation.
• Base Stations & Human
Health.
Social Technology
• Lifestyle changes. •Rates of obsoleteness.
• Social mobility. •New discoveries.
• Shift towards the •Speed of technology
Information Society. transferee.
• Increasing Need for •Technological
Communications.
Innovations.
• Security threats.
• A necessity not a luxury.

29. Porters Five Forces
Rivalry buyer Power
• Rivalry is High and intense • High Buyer Power
• Digital Convergence is tearing down the walls between • Price conscious consumers will continue to put
industries. downward pressure on prices.
• Open architecture is forcing many companies to duke it • Telecom carriers set strict terms from handset makers.
out with each other.
• Margins are being squeezed due to commoditization
and substitutes are introduced.
Supplier Power,
Suppliers hold only
low to moderate
power
New Entrance Substitute
• The threat of new entrants is low in the • The greatest threat is convergence
traditional sense. •As more functions are crammed into devices,
•significant for startups in that capital requirements are large. universal devices may drive stand-alone products
•However, a very large number of companies spread out a from the market.
cross various industries are ready to jump into markets offering •You can think of Skype and iPad with tweaking can
even a hint of profitability. change the landscape.
• Real danger exists in that the technology landscape is ever
changing. •Potential disruptions is expected from Tablets as the
iPad.

30. Porters Forces
-threat of Complimentors -
Hardware advances create pull demand for matching software, and
vice versa.
Advances in communications technologies also fuel demand for
upgraded/replacement devices.
As OS’s increase their capabilities ,application software’s potential is
thereby increased
Microsoft and Nokia Strategic Alliance
•Nokia with include Windows 7 for its Smart Phones
•Microsoft will License Nokia Maps, Media Technology and Other as a part of its Windows 7
Nokia new Release Integrated with Apple iTunes
30

31. In this Study we are mainly
focusing on the Smart Phones
Technologies and Industry.
But as a Quick Overview about the
Traditional Phones, it can be
summarized as…

32. Traditional Phones
- Forecast -
Current
Phone
Features
Technology/Product Performance
Disruptive
Technology, For
Low Priced
Enabled Phone.
10$ and 5$
Phones are
Current coming.
User
Demand
Time

33. For the Rest of the Study, we are
Focusing on
Smart Phones Technologies and
Industry

34. Industry Trends
-Experiencing Eco-System-

35. Technological Challenges ???!!!
Eco-System
Expansion?
Storage, Is
IPR/Copy
it local or
rights?
Cloud?
Bandwidth,
Monetizati Speed
on? Limits &
Cost???

36. Industry Trends
-APPS, APPS, APPS-

37. Technological Challenges ???!!!
Closed
Systems?
Monetization? Open source?
Single or Multi Processing
vendor? Power?
Bandwidth? Storage Size?

38. Industry Trends
-INTREFACE Design & Usability-

39. Technological Challenges ???!!!
Full
Features
?
Social, Easy
Location Friendly
Based,… Usage?
Complet
Privacy? e Eco-
System?
Ext. Sys. High
Com.? Security?

40. Industry Trends
-Display-

41. Technological Challenges ???!!!
Small Device?
Large Display?

42. Industry Trends
-Monitoring Energy-

43. Technological Challenges ???!!!
High
Resolution
Low Power
?
Consumpti
on?
Touch
Features?
= ???!!!
Long Life Battery?

44. Industry Trends
-Processing Speed-

45. Technological Challenges ???!!!
High
Processing
?
Low Heat?
Low
Power?
= ???!!!
Small Size?

46. Industry Trends
-Keyboard-

47. Technological Challenges ???!!!
Small Size Device?
Friendly Keyboard?

48. Technology Forecast
-Future Wheel-
Internet Apps
Physical Enterta
Size inment
Local
ECO-
Convenience System
Keyboard
Cloud
Storage
Power
Smart
Processor Open
Phones OS
Heat
Proprie
Connectivity
Battery tary
Processing
Display Long
Life
Speed Coverage
Small Small
Physical Size Size
Cost Large
Resolution Display
High Level Summary

49. Technology Forecast
-Relevance Tree-
Smart Phones
Storage Keyboard Connectivity Processor
Local Cloud Laser Touch Satellite WIMAX Apple A Sony CELL
Built-In GSM NVIDIA Qualcomm
Flash DRAM Intel
LPDDR2 4G 3G LTE
Display
Battery
Screens Projection
lithium-ion Wireless charging
LCD TMOS Eyeglass solar fuel cells
electrofluidic Holographic
telescopic pixels Built in Projector LPDDR: Low-power, double data rate
AMOLD OLED TMOS: Time Multiplexed Optical Shutter

50. Technology Forecast
-Structural Analysis-
1 Battery 2 Processor 3 Display 4 Keyboard
5 Storage 6 Connectivity 7 OS 8 Ecosystem
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 6
2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 6
3 1 1 0 1 1 1 5
4 1 1 1 0 1 1 5
5 1 1 0 1 1 1 5
6 1 1 1 0 1 1 5
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 7
8 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6
1 5 6
7 8
2 3 4

51. Technology Forecast
-Cross Impact-
1 Battery 2 Processor 3 Display 4 Keyboard
5 Storage 6 Connectivity 7 OS 8 Ecosystem
1 5 6
7 8
2 3 4
Battery Life is the show stopper.
Display Technology is struggling
Keyboard convenience is a must
Connectivity incremental innovation is progressing
Storage alternatives are acceptable
Processing Power is accepted Source: http://mobiledevdesign.com/tutorials/choose-right-mobile-display-tech-reduce-power-gap-081309/

52. Technology Forecast
Currently Diffused -Future Forecast-
Growth Phase
Smart Phones
Future Forecast
Storage Keyboard Connectivity Processor
Local Cloud Laser Touch Satellite WIMAX Apple A Sony CELL
Built-In GSM NVIDIA Qualcomm
Flash DRAM Intel
LPDDR2 4G 3G LTE
Display
Battery
Screens Projection
lithium-ion Wireless charging
LCD TMOS Eyeglass solar fuel cells
electrofluidic Holographic
telescopic pixels Built in Projector LPDDR: Low-power, double data rate
AMOLD OLED TMOS: Time Multiplexed Optical Shutter

53. Technology Forecast
-Roadmap-
Incremental Modular Radical
Diffusion Over Time
Innovation Innovation Innovation
Short Tem Mid Tem Long Tem
0 to 1 Year 1 to 3 Year 3 to 5 Year
lithium-ion
1 Battery lithium-ion + Wireless charging
LCD AMOLD
3 Display Built in Projector
OLED
telescopic pixels Holographic
Built-In
4 Keyboard
Touch
Laser
DRAM Cloud
5 Storage Flash DRAM + Flash LPDDR2
LPDDR2 + Flash
3G
6 Connectivity 4G
LTE Satellite

54. Technology Forecast
-Wild Card-
Moderate Intermediate Extreme
Yelling Heartbeat Cola
biological battery grabs energy
1 Battery turning noise into Heart beat to Kinetic energy
from the drink's sugar Atomic
electrical current. Dirt nuclear fusion on a
microbial fuel cell Nano- photonic microscopic scale
E-Paper 3D Holographic
3 Display Quantum-LED
E-Ink 2 Laser- phosphor
Laser-Quantum
Silicon substrates
MEMS Holographic nano-structures
5 Storage micro-electro mechanical systems
clean itself, or scan your food
Nanotechnology Very Small Size and Fully for harmful toxins
Featured
Atomic: http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-01/04/silent-speech-and-atomic-batteries-the-future-of-mobile-phones
Yelling, Dirt, Heartbeat, cola: http://www.pocketgamer.co.uk/r/Multiformat/Top+5+mobile+charts/feature.asp?c=31390
E-Ink: http://hothardware.com/News/Liquavista/
Disruptive Technology in Display: http://www.google.com.eg/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=display%20technology%20forecast&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CFgQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.intertechpira.com%2FCore%2FDownloadDoc.aspx%3FdocumentID%3D11002&ei=c1QQT_ebKoWg-
AbsmPDlAg&usg=AFQjCNGSsAR2P8AHg5h5RH0wAl8KYPxBew
Mobile Display Research: http://www.phonearena.com/news/Flexible-mobile-displays-Interview-from-the-research-lab-with-Michael-G.-Helander_id24436
Next Generation Display: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_of_display_technology
Future of Storage: http://www.wtec.org/loyola/hdmem/toc.htm

55. Technology Forecast
-Forecasted Future Mobile-
Short Tem Long Tem
1 to 2 Year 3 to 5 Year
1 Battery lithium-ion Nano- photonic + Wireless +Yelling
5x Life + quick recharging
+ Wireless
2 Processor 3 G Speed Nano CPU Triple Speed
3 Display AMOLD Built in Projector Holographic
4 Keyboard Advanced Touch Laser
5 Storage DRAM + Flash Cloud LPDDR2 + Flash
6 Connectivity LTE 4G Satellite
Advanced Features, Solving Built-in, SR, TR,
7 OS
HW Deficiencies Multilingual MAT & AI
8 Ecosystem More TV, Radio, Movies, Business
HD Movie Streams, Edu,
Apps and Mobile Payment,
Health, Security, ID,…
Advanced Monetization

56. Acknowledgment
It worth mentioning that the following parts her
mentioned have been presented based on a mutual team
work cooperation between the author of this research
paper and the following names as a part of their BSAD
603- Corporate Strategy, course project conducted in Nile
University as part of the Msc in MOT studies.
Names:
Rasha Tantawy, Basma Albana and Mohamed Mokhtar.
Parts are:
Industry definition, industry timeline, market dynamics,
PEST analysis and some of the industry trends.

57. Disclaimer
All material in this report is for informational and
scholar research study purposes only . Any and all
ideas, opinions, and/ or forecasts, expressed or
implied herein, should not be construed as a
recommendation to invest, trade, and/or
speculate in the markets. Be advised that study
author will not be held responsible for any
investment actions that you take as a result of
any information mentioned in this report.

58. Al-Motaz Bellah Al-Agamawi
MS.C MOT, Nile University, 6 October, Cairo, Egypt
Email: magamawi@gmail.com
Skype ID: magamawi / icloud ID: magamawi@me.com
Linkedin Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/motazalagamawi
SlideShare Profile: http://www.slideshare.net/magamawi