A lecture on CDOs, CDS, and Ireland.

1. CDOS, CDS,THE SUBPRIME
CRISIS AND IRELAND,
2007-2009
Dr Stephen Kinsella
stephen.kinsella@ul.ie
www.stephenkinsella.net

2. LAST TIME
Financial Fragility in Ireland
Corporate Governance lacking, financial innovations disrupt normal
running of markets.

3. MINSKY WAS RIGHT.

4. MOVING L17-L18

5. TODAY
CDO + CDS, Definitions & Examples.
How do they relate to Ireland today?

6. Defini-
Securitization… is the process of packaging (illiquid)
liabilities and debt instruments, thus converting them
tion
into liquid tradable “asset-backed securities.”

7. BASIC STRUCTURE
The bank
The SPV
sells a
issues
portfolio of
bonds
loans
Special Purpose Investors
Bank
Vehicle
(SPV)
Payment for Proceeds
loan from the
portfolio issue

8. Central Bank policies (next week)
Interest rate policies and regimes.
Funding cost changes.
Exchange Rate policies.
Models, Pricing knowledge, fast and accurate
calculation of ‘Greeks’, Hedging ability
Leads to innovations in structured credit markets

9. What is a structured Credit asset ?
Reasons for using structured assets
Anatomy of a structured asset
CLE
CDO
Examples -- Pricing and sensitivity

10. A structured asset is, at the end… an asset
incorporating a derivative strategy.
But this notion gets broader in Credit
The notion of correlated events become central

11. Individual Credit Risk:
Credit Exposures by tranches
T
R Super
A
Portfolio Senior
N
of N Credit
C
Exposures AAA
H
To Be
I Mezzanines
Covered
N
Equity
G

12. A COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATION
(CDO) IS A STRUCTURED PRODUCT WHERE
A portfolio of securities is transferred to a SPV
SPV issues tranches of notes with different
seniority and there is also an equity stub
The CDO tranches are rated based on portfolio
credit quality, portfolio diversification, and
subordination.
Single tranche…bespoke CDO/CDO-squared

13. LIABILITIES
ASSETS
Reference Portfolio Super Senior
+25 ABS – [83%] (3.32% each)
+3 CDO Tranches – [17%] (5.6% each)
ABS Bucket
♦RMBS [60.00%]
Senior AAA
♦Credit Cards [12.00]% [2.48]%
♦? ABS [12.00]%
♦Consumer Credit [8.00]%
♦Auto Loans [4.00]%
Junior AAA [0.99]%
♦Student Loans ABS [4.00]%
CDO Bucket
AA [1.03]%
♦Total number investment grade
♦Corporate Reference ? is 42%
♦100 names per CDO Equity [1.36]%
♦Portfolio average rating: A/BBB+
See sifma.org

14. By reallocating the default probability CDO tranches
can generate returns of 15-20% from very small
default probabilities…
But, more importantly…
…they generate assets with different
sensitivities to (default) correlation

15. Buy Equity tranche…
…Sell Mezzanine tranche.
The effects of default probability will cancel out.
And the correlation effect can be isolated. This can
be traded.

16. Innovation is essential to make money
…and structured products are a major
way of doing this.

17. CDS
Credit default swap (CDS) market is a large and
fast-growing market that allows investors to trade
credit risk.
Credit default swap (CDS) is a contract between two
parties, where a protection buyer pays a premium to
the protection seller in exchange for a payment if a
credit event occurs to a reference entity. CDS are
customizable, over-the-counter products and can be
written to trigger in the event of bankruptcy, default,
failure to pay, restructuring, or any
other credit event of the reference entity.

18. IRELAND & THE GLOBAL
QUESTION

20. NEXT TIME
The European Central Bank & Investor Behaviour. Reading: Buiter,
W: Why the United Kingdom Should Join the Eurozone.