The future collider

The Future Collider
((Futurist Primer and Nine Collision Events of the Future))
Josh Davis, Aperio Insights

What is [Innovation]?

Josh@aperioinsights.com

What is the relationship
between [Innovation] and the

FUTURE?


EXERCISE 1: Intro to Amazing
Step 1: Working in small groups; list three

{game changers} of the past five years.
These could be technologies, events or organizations of
significant impact.

(These game changers should be something surprising,
something that only a few people saw beforehand.)


EXERCISE 1: Intro to Amazing
Step 2: In those same groups, list one or two

{amazing futures}
It could be a new Social, Technological, Environmental,
Economic or Political reality.

It might be some new and incredible technology,
experience, development, etc. Try to think just past the
capabilities of today’s reality. Be creative and aspirational!


Congratulations!!
You are now a Level 1: [ Futurist ]!


Futures?

Do you mean
Commodities?


Futurist?

Do you mean
Science Fiction?


So what is a Futurist?

As a Foresight Analyst, it is my task to assess an

organization’s (foresight capabilities) and recommend
to the client how they can be more [Future Ready…]


Trendspotting?

While helpful, trends
can be limiting,
giving us only an
abbreviated
picture
of a few data sets
tracked up to now.

Trends are more about the present than they are the future.
The future is not less than trends.
RATHER IT IS TRENDS AND MUCH MORE.


The VUCA Environment
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity
Not only…
… is the future a dice game.
(volatile)
But…
… we don’t know how many
dice we have. (uncertain)

… how many sides on each
die. (complexity)

…. or what a winning roll looks
like. (ambiguity)


Emerging Realities vs. Trends

• Trends are directional, while emerging realities
are dimensional.

• Trends fire through emerging realities and are
very difficult to track into the future. Emerging
realities absorb and create new trends. They
are the “stuff” that seeds future consumer
demands.

• Trends are what customers are doing (or have
recently done) while Emerging Realities are the
ideas of what consumers will do.

• Trends tell us about the present, while emerging realities give potential to
the present.


Emerging Realities Rapid Fire

Welcome to the [ Future Collider ]!


Nine Collision Events

from fifty-three [ Emerging Realities ]

Event 1: The Personal Consumer


Event 1: The Personal Consumer
Accelerating Serendipity Authenticity Simultaneous Identities

The process of finding something good or useful Authenticity redefined (especially in light of Social media users develop multiple discreet
made faster and automated. living simultaneous identities) profiles with various levels of openness, a form
of riskless play.

Passion Based Life Personalized Entertainment Social Media

Living life where less may be more; The MMORPG effect: the consumer’s desire to Growth of various media tools/technologies
having less allows for a more fulfilling life. have a fully unique effect encourage P2P interaction


Event 2: Connected to Everything


Event 2: Connected to Everything
Versioning Smart Cities Multimodal Interaction

Products are shipped intentionally unfinished, Cities become more effective at connecting the Interfacing with technology using voice, touch,
then updated through reiteration. people, devices, and other cities. gesture, or telekinesis. Death of the keyboard

The Internet of Things The Interconnected World Mobile Computing
Revolution

Devices, products, services, and other items The move to global ubiquitous access to Future generations will not be tethered to
connect with each other and with users in a information and knowledge. Network of networks. land lines as most computing goes mobile.
nearly seamless environment. Not just one internet but many.


Event 3: Local Power and New Scale


Event 3: Local Power and New Scale
Social Innovation Gamification for Good

Addressing the world’s problems through Gamified activities used to drive social consciousness or solve big
entrepreneurship and business. problems (i.e. hackers gamed the HIV nucleus and 3D mapped it).

Freemiums Power of the Crowd Hyperlocal

A premium cost to high-value customers Social technology that affords crowds more Consumers becoming much more invested
allows a less rich experience to more for free. “democratic power” than any previous generation. in the area where they live.


Event 4: New Age of Sharing


Event 4: New Age of Sharing
Rentennials Access over Assets

Consumers increasingly prefer renting to buying. Consumer preference for subscription-based
services rather than an asset purchase.

Redefining Digital Ownership Collaborative Consumption Valued Hacking

Digital media re-sell sites force the question: Harnessing the power of hacker groups and
Use of sharing services allow assets like cars or
“who owns media that is digitally downloaded?” hacker culture.
bicycles to be more fully utilized


Event 5: Disruptive Invention


Event 5: Disruptive Invention
Robotics Innovating Energy Storage 3D Printing

Advanced robots with the ability to write news Energy storage that responds to growing global Printing tools components, machinery, in color
as linguistically complex and nuanced as a energy demands with small high-capacity using desktop 3D printers. Future will have
human author. multi-media and organic 3D printers.
components.

Self-Driving Cars Apps Replace People Alternative Energy

Google cars have traveled more than 300K miles Apps (i.e. Apple’s Siri) that have complex
Growing alternative energy markets including
without an accident (twice as safe as the average and intuitive software to augment various
wind, solar, kinetic, bio-fuel, geo-thermal
car on the road). daily tasks.


Event 6: Super-Smart Computers


Event 6: Super-Smart Computers
Passive Computing Speech Recognition

Computers and devices speaking to each other, Beyond Voice-to-Text and Siri, new voice technologies
assessing their user’s needs and performing actions on will distinguish relevant data in conversational style
their behalf in the background. language.

Predictive Geospatial Predictive Analysis

Software and devices that anticipate consumer needs Overlaying mined data with map data to forecast
and map preferences items such as crime hotspots, traffic jams,
demographic shifts, etc.


Event 7: My Technology Knows Me


Event 7: My Technology Knows Me
Screen Time Customization Mood Based Marketing

The advent of the digitally-native generation and A host of options due to just-in-time production
Mood detection software that affects
the comparative amount of “screen time.” and customer demand for individual experience
how devices interact with the user.

Quantified Self The Attention Economy

Sensors embedded in clothing, toothbrushes, Competing for the attention of the potential
pedometers, even ingestible devices to capture consumer (i.e.: multi-sensory advertising, direct
“big human data” and provide lifestyle marketing, interactive commercials)
diagnostics.


Event 8: Open and Organic Internet


Event 8: Open and Organic Internet
Plug and Play Modular Big Data Open Source

Innovation acceleration drives a modular Massive amounts of data manipulated by complex Loosening the reins on Internet content,
approach to system construction, allowing for algorithms to provide unique or fresh insight.
platforms and IP
ease of repair and upgrade.

Cloud Computing Democratized Distribution Monetizing the Internet

Accessing data, information, and processes Content will be accessed through an array of cheap or Creatively leveraging online content among a
without the constraints of maintaining local free distribution channels: wireless, fiber, white space consumer base to monetize curated or
storage. TV spectrum, radio, satellite and others.
generated content.

Event 9: Awesome Experiences


Real Life Story Immersion Immersive Gaming Immersive Travel

Experiential and participative entertainment Transmedia approach to gaming media consumption Rather than going to a theme park,
consumption by going to a place and role-playing (i.e. movies with “second screen” function via tablet consumers choose immersive experiences like
an experience. that force participation and collaborative story- living off of $5/day while traveling through
telling). France.

Location-Based Stories Adventure Tourism Gamification

Stories or history told to the user through an Tourism becoming more about experience than Making life a game with rewards for
augmented reality interface while traveling with holiday, some adventure is even found locally accomplishments, games that drive a richer, more
a smart device. social experience (i.e. Foursquare).
by exploring a city’s abandoned buildings.


Holographic Performances

Augmented Reality Integrated HMI

Not just rich 3D video, but also intuitive and
learning software, which can allow a holograph
to move and speak like an actual person.

Integrated HMI (i.e. Google Glasses) overlays

Applying an overlay to real life that adds to the
Adult Playgrounds digital information through the use of
wearable or otherwise integrated electronics.
experience with more information or gamification.

Experiences and services for adult play.


EXERCISE 2: Collision Course
Step 1: Let’s put this to {action} Refer to your
group’s deck of emerging realities .
As a group, select any three of the
[Nine Collisions] to form the inputs for your
Collision Story.

Make snap judgments; pick quickly! Fill in your group’s
selections into section one of your collision report.

(Keywords: asymmetrical , non-linear , meshing , collision , etc.)


Step 2: Ask the question, “what is {happening}
here?”

Spend ten minutes thinking about what this collision might
cause. How might your EVENT be used?

What new products result or how will your event [affect]
things like mobile technology? family structures? government
regulation? travel or leisure?

What (if any) new communications tools, patterns, or
modes/media are there as a result of your event?


Step 3: In order to add definition to the event, plan a short story that

discusses your Collision Event. Refer to section three of your
worksheet.

Fill out all subsections:
• the hero’s profile - who did you meet in this future?

• a brief [story] tagline - what is the conflict or theme of this
story?
• future {artifact} - what did you find worth bringing back?
Step 4: As time permits, give a brief report on your future artifact


The future collider

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