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The future collider

  1. The Future Collider ((Futurist Primer and Nine Collision Events of the Future)) Josh Davis, Aperio Insights
  2. What is [Innovation]?
  3. What is the relationship between [Innovation] and the FUTURE?
  4. EXERCISE 1: Intro to Amazing Step 1: Working in small groups; list three {game changers} of the past five years. These could be technologies, events or organizations of significant impact. (These game changers should be something surprising, something that only a few people saw beforehand.)
  5. EXERCISE 1: Intro to Amazing Step 2: In those same groups, list one or two {amazing futures} It could be a new Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic or Political reality. It might be some new and incredible technology, experience, development, etc. Try to think just past the capabilities of today’s reality. Be creative and aspirational!
  6. Congratulations!! You are now a Level 1: [ Futurist ]!
  7. Futures? Do you mean Commodities?
  8. Futurist? Do you mean Science Fiction?
  9. So what is a Futurist? As a Foresight Analyst, it is my task to assess an organization’s (foresight capabilities) and recommend to the client how they can be more [Future Ready…]
  10. Trendspotting? While helpful, trends can be limiting, giving us only an abbreviated picture of a few data sets tracked up to now. Trends are more about the present than they are the future. The future is not less than trends. RATHER IT IS TRENDS AND MUCH MORE.
  11. The VUCA Environment Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity Not only… … is the future a dice game. (volatile) But… … we don’t know how many dice we have. (uncertain) … how many sides on each die. (complexity) …. or what a winning roll looks like. (ambiguity)
  12. Emerging Realities vs. Trends • Trends are directional, while emerging realities are dimensional. • Trends fire through emerging realities and are very difficult to track into the future. Emerging realities absorb and create new trends. They are the “stuff” that seeds future consumer demands. • Trends are what customers are doing (or have recently done) while Emerging Realities are the ideas of what consumers will do. • Trends tell us about the present, while emerging realities give potential to the present.
  13. Emerging Realities Rapid Fire Welcome to the [ Future Collider ]!
  14. Nine Collision Events from fifty-three [ Emerging Realities ]
  15. Event 1: The Personal Consumer
  16. Event 1: The Personal Consumer Accelerating Serendipity Authenticity Simultaneous Identities The process of finding something good or useful Authenticity redefined (especially in light of Social media users develop multiple discreet made faster and automated. living simultaneous identities) profiles with various levels of openness, a form of riskless play. Passion Based Life Personalized Entertainment Social Media Living life where less may be more; The MMORPG effect: the consumer’s desire to Growth of various media tools/technologies having less allows for a more fulfilling life. have a fully unique effect encourage P2P interaction
  17. Event 2: Connected to Everything
  18. Event 2: Connected to Everything Versioning Smart Cities Multimodal Interaction Products are shipped intentionally unfinished, Cities become more effective at connecting the Interfacing with technology using voice, touch, then updated through reiteration. people, devices, and other cities. gesture, or telekinesis. Death of the keyboard The Internet of Things The Interconnected World Mobile Computing Revolution Devices, products, services, and other items The move to global ubiquitous access to Future generations will not be tethered to connect with each other and with users in a information and knowledge. Network of networks. land lines as most computing goes mobile. nearly seamless environment. Not just one internet but many.
  19. Event 3: Local Power and New Scale
  20. Event 3: Local Power and New Scale Social Innovation Gamification for Good Addressing the world’s problems through Gamified activities used to drive social consciousness or solve big entrepreneurship and business. problems (i.e. hackers gamed the HIV nucleus and 3D mapped it). Freemiums Power of the Crowd Hyperlocal A premium cost to high-value customers Social technology that affords crowds more Consumers becoming much more invested allows a less rich experience to more for free. “democratic power” than any previous generation. in the area where they live.
  21. Event 4: New Age of Sharing
  22. Event 4: New Age of Sharing Rentennials Access over Assets Consumers increasingly prefer renting to buying. Consumer preference for subscription-based services rather than an asset purchase. Redefining Digital Ownership Collaborative Consumption Valued Hacking Digital media re-sell sites force the question: Harnessing the power of hacker groups and Use of sharing services allow assets like cars or “who owns media that is digitally downloaded?” hacker culture. bicycles to be more fully utilized
  23. Event 5: Disruptive Invention
  24. Event 5: Disruptive Invention Robotics Innovating Energy Storage 3D Printing Advanced robots with the ability to write news Energy storage that responds to growing global Printing tools components, machinery, in color as linguistically complex and nuanced as a energy demands with small high-capacity using desktop 3D printers. Future will have human author. multi-media and organic 3D printers. components. Self-Driving Cars Apps Replace People Alternative Energy Google cars have traveled more than 300K miles Apps (i.e. Apple’s Siri) that have complex Growing alternative energy markets including without an accident (twice as safe as the average and intuitive software to augment various wind, solar, kinetic, bio-fuel, geo-thermal car on the road). daily tasks.
  25. Event 6: Super-Smart Computers
  26. Event 6: Super-Smart Computers Passive Computing Speech Recognition Computers and devices speaking to each other, Beyond Voice-to-Text and Siri, new voice technologies assessing their user’s needs and performing actions on will distinguish relevant data in conversational style their behalf in the background. language. Predictive Geospatial Predictive Analysis Software and devices that anticipate consumer needs Overlaying mined data with map data to forecast and map preferences items such as crime hotspots, traffic jams, demographic shifts, etc.
  27. Event 7: My Technology Knows Me
  28. Event 7: My Technology Knows Me Screen Time Customization Mood Based Marketing The advent of the digitally-native generation and A host of options due to just-in-time production Mood detection software that affects the comparative amount of “screen time.” and customer demand for individual experience how devices interact with the user. Quantified Self The Attention Economy Sensors embedded in clothing, toothbrushes, Competing for the attention of the potential pedometers, even ingestible devices to capture consumer (i.e.: multi-sensory advertising, direct “big human data” and provide lifestyle marketing, interactive commercials) diagnostics.
  29. Event 8: Open and Organic Internet
  30. Event 8: Open and Organic Internet Plug and Play Modular Big Data Open Source Innovation acceleration drives a modular Massive amounts of data manipulated by complex Loosening the reins on Internet content, approach to system construction, allowing for algorithms to provide unique or fresh insight. platforms and IP ease of repair and upgrade. Cloud Computing Democratized Distribution Monetizing the Internet Accessing data, information, and processes Content will be accessed through an array of cheap or Creatively leveraging online content among a without the constraints of maintaining local free distribution channels: wireless, fiber, white space consumer base to monetize curated or storage. TV spectrum, radio, satellite and others. generated content.
  31. Event 9: Awesome Experiences
  32. Event 9: Awesome Experiences Real Life Story Immersion Immersive Gaming Immersive Travel Experiential and participative entertainment Transmedia approach to gaming media consumption Rather than going to a theme park, consumption by going to a place and role-playing (i.e. movies with “second screen” function via tablet consumers choose immersive experiences like an experience. that force participation and collaborative story- living off of $5/day while traveling through telling). France. Location-Based Stories Adventure Tourism Gamification Stories or history told to the user through an Tourism becoming more about experience than Making life a game with rewards for augmented reality interface while traveling with holiday, some adventure is even found locally accomplishments, games that drive a richer, more a smart device. social experience (i.e. Foursquare). by exploring a city’s abandoned buildings.
  33. Event 9: Awesome Experiences Holographic Performances Augmented Reality Integrated HMI Not just rich 3D video, but also intuitive and learning software, which can allow a holograph to move and speak like an actual person. Integrated HMI (i.e. Google Glasses) overlays Applying an overlay to real life that adds to the Adult Playgrounds digital information through the use of wearable or otherwise integrated electronics. experience with more information or gamification. Experiences and services for adult play.
  34. EXERCISE 2: Collision Course Step 1: Let’s put this to {action} Refer to your group’s deck of emerging realities . As a group, select any three of the [Nine Collisions] to form the inputs for your Collision Story. Make snap judgments; pick quickly! Fill in your group’s selections into section one of your collision report. (Keywords: asymmetrical , non-linear , meshing , collision , etc.)
  35. EXERCISE 2: Collision Course Step 2: Ask the question, “what is {happening} here?” Spend ten minutes thinking about what this collision might cause. How might your EVENT be used? What new products result or how will your event [affect] things like mobile technology? family structures? government regulation? travel or leisure? What (if any) new communications tools, patterns, or modes/media are there as a result of your event?
  36. EXERCISE 2: Collision Course Step 3: In order to add definition to the event, plan a short story that discusses your Collision Event. Refer to section three of your worksheet. Fill out all subsections: • the hero’s profile - who did you meet in this future? • a brief [story] tagline - what is the conflict or theme of this story? • future {artifact} - what did you find worth bringing back? Step 4: As time permits, give a brief report on your future artifact
  37. Collision Report

Notas do Editor

  1. (Hint 1: Think of the sudden impact of the iPod. Hint 2: Try it, but if you get stuck, this is an open-note, open-neighbor, open-professor, open-net, and open-source exercise.)
  2. (Remember:Realistic Optimismis much more helpful than Pessimism for the future.)
  3. (Hint 1: Think of the sudden impact of the iPod. Hint 2: Try it, but if you get stuck, this is an open-note, open-neighbor, open-professor, open-net, and open-source exercise.)
  4. (Hint 1: Think of the sudden impact of the iPod. Hint 2: Try it, but if you get stuck, this is an open-note, open-neighbor, open-professor, open-net, and open-source exercise.)