1. The Trajectory of Terrorism 1990-2030 Presentation by Alex P. Schmid, Director Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence (CSTPV), Netherlands Institute for International Relations ‘Clingendael’, Prinses Juliana Kazerne Conference ‘Challenging Uncertainties: The Future of the Netherlands’ Armed Forces’ 16 th - 17 th December 2008

3. A. de Borchgrave :”it is just a matter of time. My assumption is it will be a weapon of mass destruction ”; M. Cetron : “If they want to do a bioweapons attack they would be in a perfect position to do that”; W. Phares : “…the next few months are crucial as they precede the presidential campaign year of 2008”; P.L. Williams : “…[bin Laden] is planning to conduct an attack on seven to ten cities simultaneously ”. Table 2: Sample of “Expert” Predictions from July 2007 for 2007/08 Source: Terrorism Open Source Intelligence Report (TOSIR), No. 289, 26 July 2007

4. 1. Terrorism refers on the one hand to a doctrine about the presumed effectiveness of a special form or tactic of fear-generating, coercive political violence and, on the other hand, to a conspiratorial practice of calculated, demonstrative, direct violent action without legal or moral restraints, performed for its propagandistic and psychological effects on various audiences and conflict parties; 2. Terrorism as a tactic is employed in three main contexts: (i) illegal state repression, (ii) propagandistic agitation by non-state actors in times of peace or outside zones of conflict and (iii) as a illicit tactic of irregular warfare employed by state- and non-state actors. Source: A.P. Schmid, Handbook of Terrorism Research, London, Routledge, forthcoming 2009. Table 3: Revised Academic Consensus Definition of Terrorism

7. % of all events % of all casualties Bombs 53.4 70.1 Guns 19.9 23.0 Arson 9.8 2.7 Remote control bombs 1.9 4.7 Knives & other blades 1.3 2.1 Chemical 0.2 0.59 Biological 0.08 0.02 Other 13.3 8.1 Total 100.0 100.0 Source: p.49.Kenneth T. Bogen and Edwin D. Jones. Risks of Mortality and Morbidity from Worldwide Terrorism: 1968-2004. Risk Analysis Vol. 26, No.1, 2006. – Data utilized are from RAND-MIPT. Incidents until 1997 include only international terrorism. Table 6: Terrorist Tactics, based on 25,303 terrorist events, 1968-2004

8. Table 7: Terrorist Incidents Worldwide Source: MIPT (domestic and international) – It should be noted that MIPT does not count civilians killed by governments. 99072 47596 27669 Total 18694 8763 3479 2007 20991 12071 6660 2006 15269 8192 4976 2005 10860 5066 2647 2004 6200 2346 1899 2003 7349 2763 2648 2002 6403 4571 1732 2001 2570 783 1151 2000 2534 847 1172 1999 8202 2172 1286 1998 Injured Fatalities Incidents Year

9. Democratic Republic of the Congo, since 1990 4,000,000 Sudan since 1983 2,000,000 Afghanistan since 1978 1,500,000 Uganda since 1987 500,000 Somalia since 1988 400,000 Sudan/Darfur since 2003 400,000 Burundi since 1993 300,000 Algeria since 1992 200,000 Colombia since 1964 200,000 Philippines since 1971 150,000 Israel/Palestine since 1948 120,000 Sri Lanka since 1948 100,000 Source: Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are Now. London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.103. Table 8: Death in Current Armed Conflicts

10. Table 9: Terrorist Incidents Worldwide in 2005 and 2006 according to US National Counter Terrorism Center Source: US National Counter Terrorism Centre as quoted in US Department of State. Country Reports on Terrorism and Patterns of Global Terrorism. Washington, DC, Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, 21 March 2007, p.3; available at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/2006/82739.htm, consulted on 04/05/2007 6.959 7.194 Incidents worldwide, excl. Iraq and Afghanistan 749 491 Incidents of terrorism in Afghanistan 6.630 3.468 Incidents of terrorism in Iraq 14.338 11.153 Incidents of terrorism worldwide 2006 2005

11. Table 10: Terrorist Logistical Success: 1968-2007 Source: ITERATE, calculated by Peter Flemming 100.0 13,087 Total number of incidents 1.9 246 Unknown 79.6 10,411 Apparently completed as planned 5.6 734 Stopped by authorities at the scene after initiation 2.1 277 Unsuccessful owing to faults or error by terrorists 2.5 328 Aborted by terrorists during event 5.0 654 Incident stopped by authorities at scene/way to scene 3.2 421 Incident stopped by authorities at planning stage .1 16 Aborted by terrorists before initiation Percent Frequency Terrorist Logistical Success

15. Before 9/11 After 9/11 Armed Attacks + 644 6185 Arson Events + 315 563 Assassinations + 492 1260 Barricades/Hostage Takings - 41 26 Bombings + 3236 11,409 Hijackings - 28 14 (inc. 9/11) Kidnappings + 373 1268 By other means + 99 561 Source: Source: Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are Now. London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.115 based mainly on MIPT : Terrorism Knowledge Base. Table 14: Terrorist Incidents before & after 9/11

16. 1990 – 1994: 1,365 1995-1999: 4,328 2000- 2004: 15,532 2005 – 2008 (incomplete): 27,191 Total: 48,416 Source: Source: Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are Now. London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.115 based mainly on MIPT Terrorism Knowledge Base. Table 15: Civilian Deaths from Terrorist Attacks, 1990 – 2007

17. Table 16: Incidents by Region: 1998 - 03/03/2008 Source: MIPT, at http://www.tkb.org, as of 03/03/2008 47693 99214 27680 TOTAL 401 1787 3087 Western Europe 1748 5552 1738 Southeast Asia & Oceania 7744 17953 4881 South Asia 2996 2408 120 North America 28248 54707 13865 Middle East / Persian Gulf 1688 2648 1834 Latin America & the Caribbean 2010 5127 1455 Eastern Europe 164 393 128 East & Central Asia 2694 8639 572 Africa Fatalities Injuries Incidents Region

18. Symbolic targets: biblical sites; Pope; White House; Statue of Liberty. Major events: soccer stadium, apartment buildings. Common people: American school; soccer stadia; tourist places; “Westerners”. Government: United Nations; FBI & CIA headquarters; Capitol. Transport: New York Subway; airports; US navy ship. Business: banks. Infrastructure: NY tunnels ;UK Tower bridge; pipelines; oil refinery; nuclear power plant. Table 17: Targets of Planned, Foiled and Failed Terrorist Attacks outside Europe, 1993-2006

19. Symbolic targets: Eiffel Tower; church; synagogue. Major events: G-7 meeting; world soccer cup final. Common people: Christmas market, shopping centre; nightclub; funeral of Pope. Government: embassies, Ministry of Defense; house of parliament, supreme court. Transport: airport; aircraft; trains; passenger ships; subway. Business: Trade centre. Infrastructure: nuclear power plant; air force base; computer backup server centre. Table 18: European Targets of 44 Planned, failed and Foiled Jihadist Terrorist Attacks, 1994-2006

20. Killed Wounded 8/7 1998: Attacks on US embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salam 224 4,000 9/11 2001: Attacks on US targets, incl. WTC, with four airplanes 2.998 6.291 10/12: Bomb attacks in Bali on Western Tourists 202 209 11/15 2004 Two attacks in Istanbul on Jewish synagogues 25 300+ 11/20 2004: Attack on British consulate in Istanbul 27 450 3/11 2004: Ten bombs explode in four trains in Madrid 192 1.800 7/7/2005: Attack on London underground and bus 52 700 11/09 2005: Amman bombing 57 96 Source: Spiegel Jahrbuch 2003. Hamburg & Muenchen, Der Spiegel Verlag/ Deutscher TaschenbuchVerlag, 2003, pp. 538-543 ; Spiegel Spezial. Terror: der Krieg des 21. Jahrhunderts. Hamburg, Der Spiegel, 2/2004, pp. 55;Der Fischer Weltalmanach 2005. Frankfurt a. M., Fischer Verlag, 2004, p.434. Table 19: Casualty Rates of Major Al Qaeda related/inspired Terrorist Attacks

21. Year Incidents Killed Wounded Total Casualties 1995: 1 7 60 67 1996: 0 0 0 0 1997: 1 68 24 92 1998: 2 224 4077+ 4301+ 1999: 1 1 0 1 2000: 1 17 39 56 2001: 1 2998 6291 9289 2002: 6 31 112 143 2003: 4 97 429+ 526+ 2004: 5 62 206 268 2005: 5 46 89 135 2006: 7 6 37 43 2007: 1 24 50+ 74+ 2008: 0 0 0 0 Totals: 35 3581 11414+ 14995+ Source: Data calculated by B. McAllister, CSTPV Table 20: Number of Incidents and Casualties of Major Al Qaeda Central Attacks

22. Year Location 1998: Kenya, Tanzania 1999: India 2000: Yemen 2001: United States 2002: Pakistan, Tunisia, Yemen, Jordan, Kenya 2003: Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Indonesia 2004: Syria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Pakistan, Spain, Iraq 2005: Egypt, Israel, Jordan, UK, Iraq 2006: Algeria, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, Iraq 2007: Pakistan, Iraq Source: Data calculated by B. McAllister, CSTPV Table 21: Locations of al-Qaeda ‘Central’ Attacks, 1998 - 2007

23. Table 22: Al Qaeda’s Strategic Goals as of mid-2005 (Ayman al-Zawahiri) Stage 1: Expel the Americans from Iraq Stage 2: Establish an Islamic authority or emirate, then develop it and support it until it achieves the level of caliphate Stage 3: Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries neighbouring Iraq Stage 4: (maybe coinciding with what came before): the clash with Israel

24. Phase 1: (2001-2003): “The Awakening”: awake the Islamic nation from its state of hibernation by causing United States to "act chaotically”. Phase 2: (20032006): “Eye-Opening”: turn Iraq into a recruiting ground for young men eager to attack America; conduct “electronic jihad” Phase 3 (2007-2010): “Arising and Standing Up” Al Qaeda focus of struggle on Syria and Turkey, also begin of confrontation with Israel Phase 4 (2011-2013): Al Qaeda to bring about demise of Arab governments, continued attacks on oil industry, electronic attacks to undermine U.S. economy, bringing about the collapse of the dollar by promoting gold as exchange medium Phase 5 (2014-2016): “declaration of Islamic caliphate” leading to change of int. balance of power by seeking new economic allies such as China Phase 6 (2017-2020): “total confrontation”: the now established caliphate’s Islamic Army will achieve “definitive victory”. Source: Lawrence Wright. The Master Plan. For the new theorists of jihad, Al Qaeda is just the beginning. The New Yorker , September 11, 2006, pp.7-8; at: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2007/09/11/060911fa_fact3?cur ..., as of 08/10/2008. Table 23: Al Qaeda’s Twenty-Years’ Grand Plan

29. Radiological: trafficking in radio-isotopes but no incidents Nuclear: trafficking in plutonium and highly enriched uranium – but no incidents with improvised, stolen or sold nuclear device Chemical: Sarin attack in Tokyo’s subway system in April 1005: 12 killed, dozens wounded Biological: Anthrax attack in USA 2001: 5 killed, 22 infected Table 27: The CBRN Threat of Terrorism: Fact or Fiction?

31. 1. Nuclear Detonation Can vary widely 2. Biological Attack 13,000 fatalities & injuries 3. Biological Disease Outbreak (Pandemic Flu) 87,0000 fatalities, 300,000 hospitalized 4. Biological Attack – Plague 2,500 fatalities;7,000 injuries 5. Chemical Attack – Blister Agent 150 fatalities; 70,000 hospitalized 6. Chemical Attack –Toxic Indust. Chemicals 350 fatalities;1,000 hospitalizations 7. Chemical Attack – Nerve Agent 6,000 fatalities; 350 injuries 8. Chem. Attack –Chlorine Tank Explosion 17,500 fatalities; 10,000 injuries 9. Radiological Attach – RDD 180 fatalities;20,000 contaminations 10. Explosive Attack IED Bombing 100 fatalities; 450 hospitalizations 11. Biological attack – Food Contamination 300 fatalities; 400 hospitalizations Table 29 : Homeland Security Planning Scenarios 2004

36. “ Terrorism is unlikely to disappear by 2025, but its appeal could diminish if economic growth continues and youth unemployment is mitigated in the Middle East. Economic opportunities for youth and greater political pluralism probably would dissuade some from joining terrorists’ ranks, but others – motivated by a variety of factors, such as a desire for revenge or to become ‘martyrs ’ – will continue to turn to violence to purpose their objectives”. “ Terrorist and insurgent groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of descendants of long-established groups – that inherit organizational structures, command and control processes, and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks – and newly emergent collections of the angry and disenfranchised that become self-radicalized. (…)Future radicalism could be fuelled by global communications and mass media. Increasing interconnectedness will enable individuals to coalesce around common causes across national boundaries, creating new cohorts of the angry, downtrodden, and disenfranchised”. US] National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2025. A Transformed World Washington, D.C. , GPO, November 2008 (NIC 2008-003), p. 68 [emphasis added, AS]. Table 34 : Terrorism in 2025 (US National Intelligence Estimate)

37. 1 st Wave: 1879- World War I: Anarchist Wave 2 nd Wave: 1920s to 1960s: Anti-Colonial Wave 3 rd Wave: 1960s – early 1980s: New Left Wave 4 th Wave: 1979- today: Religious Wave 5 th Wave: Today – 2030s?: The New Tribalism? Source: David C. Rapoport. The Four Waves of Rebel Terror and September 11. Anthropoetics 8, no. 1 (Spring / Summer 2002); Jeffrey Kaplan. The Fifth Wave: The New Tribalism? Terrorism and Political Violence , Vol. 19, No.4, 2007, pp.545-570. Table 35: Rapoport’s four Waves Theory

40. 1.Command and Control 2. Reconnaissance, Surveillance and Target Assessment 3. Intelligence Support 4. Education, Training and Exercise 5. NBC Defense 6. Special Operations 7. Electronic Warfare 8. Interdiction 9. Logistics 10. Power Projection 11. Combined Joint Operations 12. Land Operations 13. Air Operations 14. Maritime Operations. Source: Alex P. Schmid. Comparative Analysis of Six Dutch Scenarios and Twenty Nato ‘Planning Situations’. Leiden, PIOOM, March 1998, p.6. Table 38: Major Elements of overall military capability for NATO Armed Forces

43. Table 41: How Terrorist Campaigns Came to an end (n=268) Source: Seth Jones. How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering Al Qa’ida. ST Monica, RAND, 2008, p.19

51. Instruments of International Legal Regime against Int. Terrorism % Ratification 138 1988 Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Fixed Platforms Located on the Continental Shelf 150 1988 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Maritime Navigation 165 1988 Protocol for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts of Violence at Airports Serving International Civil Aviation 135 1980 Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material 165 1979 International Convention against the Taking of Hostages 169 1973 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of Crimes against Internationally Protected Persons, including Diplomatic Agents 186 1971 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the Safety of Civil Aviation 183 1970 Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft 183 1963 Convention on Offences and Certain Other Acts Committed On Board Aircraft

52. Instruments of International Legal Regime against Int. Terrorism Cont. % Ratification 158 1997 International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings 138 1991 Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection 4 2005 Protocol of 2005 to the Protocol for the suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of fixed platforms located on the continental shelf 6 2005 Protocol of 2005 to the Convention for the suppression of unlawful acts against the safety of maritime navigation 17 2005 Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material 40 2005 International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism 163 1999 International Convention for the Suppression of the Financing of Terrorism 158 1997 International Convention for the Suppression of Terrorist Bombings 138 1991 Convention on the Marking of Plastic Explosives for the Purpose of Detection

54. Table 29: Possible Scale of Terrorist Attacks (1993 Estimates) Source: Office of Technology Assessment. Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks. U.S. Congress, 1993; cit. Michael E. O’ Hanlon et al. Protecting the American Homeland. A Preliminary Analysis. Washington, D.C., Brookings Institution Press, 2002, p.6. Modest 50-100 Suicide attack with explosives or firearms in a mall or crowded street Low 250 Conventional attack on a single train or airplane Low 1,000 Simple, relatively inefficient biological or chemical attack in one skyscraper or stadium Very low 10,000 Successful attack on nuclear or toxic chemical plant Very low 100,000 Atomic bomb detonated in major US city Very low 1,000,000 Efficient biological attack Estimated Likelihood Possible Fatalities Type of Attack